Can the book be beaten ...long term?

del roy

cson wrote: »

Can you add me to the PMs del roy? Or how is this working?

cson
there is no pm either put up here before 10.00pm night before or before 11.00am day of race.

del roy

Sev wrote: »

Fair enough. My main point is that the dark black line which is his winnings over time is pretty straight. Its not all over the shop or dominated by one big win which lends credence to the theory that he's beating the book in the long run.

Sev mate Please do not take this the wrong way or think I am being rude but

I may not know anything about the number games and the graphs but there is one thing I feel I know alot about, thats winning and losing 30 years hard labour done.

Now although the kid is on fire at the moment, there is such a thing in racing as " a purple patch" and I think everyone on here has had one, may not have lasted 4 months to be fair but we all had them.

Its just too early for me (I know he reads this thread) to say he could/is beating the book.

Please take this in the spirit it was meant.

Colonel Sanders

realdanbreen, when I saw people quoting your posts I was wondering why I couldn't see them. Checked my ignore list, you were on it. Had no idea why until I read a handful of them.

If someone is a -ive EV punter (as most people are) you will lose money in the long run. You will lose more money on multiples than on singles. Have a read of this. Explanation is simplified but the principles carry forward to any scenario

Even if you are a +ive EV punter maximising EV may not yield the best results. See here

Anyhow Del, ignore the morons and carry on as you were

johnmcdnl

Sev wrote: »

Ok, using what I've been told about how to calculate his profit and loss. I have tabulated the profit/loss he made on each bet below (maybe there are some mistakes, I wasn't sure how to deal with the R4 cases)

I have attached some plots and statistics below.

I show the cumulated profit, which looks very significant and impressive. The light grey lines are "bootstrap resampling": they are intended to give you an idea of the error on the result. They are a whole bunch of different possible universes in which I select 57 bets randomly with replacement from the 57 bets he made in his real history.

The second graph is a histogram of the final profit for each of these light grey universes. Again, this is just to give you an idea of the significance and reliability of the profit, if indeed the data I am given is accurate.

You hardly want to discuss the mathematics behind that a bit more. cumulative_profit_bootstrap_plot.pdf seems to suggest that even in the worst case scenario he's guaranteed to be in profit because not 1 single "Bootstrap resampling" line ends below 0??

del roy

4.40 chaval rouge 2pts e/w. 25/1 unpl

Bank +219.3pts
Starting bank 100pts
Profit +119.3pts

Howjoe1

del roy wrote: »

4.40 chaval rouge 2pts e/w. 25/1 unpl

Bank +219.3pts
Starting bank 100pts
Profit +119.3pts

Del, looking at yesterday:

"57/ 5.00 Brocklebank 2pts e/w 12/1 2nd (+6)"

I'd calculate that as +4.
Total stake 4 pts return 8pts.

What I'm I doing wrong?

del roy

joe 20c in the pound withdrawn horse

del roy

and joe only 1/5 the odds only 10 runners too

Howjoe1

del roy wrote: »

joe 20c in the pound withdrawn horse

i'm not talking about a rule 4.

you have calculated a profit of +6 pts on that bet. But I only make it +4 pts.

del roy

no joe I did n't that list is a list sibersha put up

on the three weekend bets I made 1.8pt profit.

Sev

del roy wrote: »

Sev mate Please do not take this the wrong way or think I am being rude but

Of course not.

del roy wrote: »

Its just too early for me (I know he reads this thread) to say he could/is beating the book.

Yeah I definitely agree.

1) Sure, I know nothing about horse racing.
2) I probably made mistakes in calculating the profit above.
3) The analysis is only really a guide, and based on a lot of assumptions. But it's the kind of thing you might try to look at to separate real performance from randomness.

johnmcdnl wrote: »

You hardly want to discuss the mathematics behind that a bit more. cumulative_profit_bootstrap_plot.pdf seems to suggest that even in the worst case scenario he's guaranteed to be in profit because not 1 single "Bootstrap resampling" line ends below 0??

Yeah, that's exactly it. Although it's the profit after 57 bets that I'm talking about.

The idea is simple.

- You assume the profit (or loss) of the previous 57 bets is a good model for the profit (or loss) of the next 57 bets.
- You then ask, what might my profit/loss situation be at the end of the next 57 bets?
- For each of the next 57 bets you choose the profit (or loss) randomly (with replacement) from the previous 57.
- You run this experiment lots of times, to generate lots of imaginary realizations of what happened.

It's called bootstrapping. It's just a way to get an idea of how robust his final profit is to fecking about with the sample. It's mostly showing that his winnings aren't just coming from a few big wins.

As it happens, it's quite improbable to randomly select 57 profits/losses from this pool such that their sum is less than zero. It does happen, but it's rare. It happens in less than 1% of cases. You can see that there is a little bit of weight left of 0 in "cumulative_profit_bootstrap.pdf".

I only ran the experiment 100 times in "cumulative_profit_bootstrap_plot.pdf", so that's why no line finishes below zero. Had I ran it 1000 times, perhaps a few might have.

I'm not saying he's definitely beating the book yet but it looks reasonably convincing so far that on average he's making a profit on each bet. (If I do indeed have all the bets he's made so far, and correctly calculated their profit and loss) But you would probably be able to say something strong about it after another 100 bets.

del roy

Sev I will pm you some info tomorrow evening.

bgrove

the important figures are that those who have followed are up... we can be tooing and frooing till christmas but all i know is that im well up. dont need or care to see f*****g spreadsheets and i feel all this questioning is boring the a**e off me. Just let it flow or he'll (kid) tire of it.

mulbot

bgrove wrote: »

the important figures are that those who have followed are up... we can be tooing and frooing till christmas but all i know is that im well up. dont need or care to see f*****g spreadsheets and i feel all this questioning is boring the a**e off me. Just let it flow or he'll (kid) tire of it.

agree,i wrote down my balance the day i started following this-today that balance is well up on the original,therefore its working:) and its thanks to Del and Kid

del roy

3.40 Hellbender 2pts e/w 15/2

Nulty

bgrove wrote: »

the important figures are that those who have followed are up... we can be tooing and frooing till christmas but all i know is that im well up. dont need or care to see f*****g spreadsheets and i feel all this questioning is boring the a**e off me. Just let it flow or he'll (kid) tire of it.

I disagree.

I think this guy enjoys beating the system and that he's methodical and systematic. If he is then I'm sure he'd be curious, as I am, about the technical points of his performance. I don't think it's boring, I just don't fully understand it. I looks very interesting. As far as I can tell from his explanation, Sev is using past results to predict future results, obviously this isn't guaranteed but probability is essential to successful punting.

mike65

del roy wrote: »

3.40 Hellbender 2pts e/w 15/2

11.00 8.50 7.50

mulbot

mike65 wrote: »

11.00 8.50 7.50

??

mulbot

mulbot wrote: »

??

ah,betfair

bgrove

i have my own mathematical system which i use to point me in the right direction, ultimatley then its down to a simple yes/no as to the variables involved that have nothing to do with systems just a judgement call that this is the correct decision to make on this particular event. Thats all it can ever be because nothing is definate in this game. Some systems are better than others some guys decision making abilities are better than others. When he puts up a tip, its a pointer in that direction to pay particular attention to. i dont blindly follow (even though in this case i nearly should).

grateface

del roy wrote: »

3.40 Hellbender 2pts e/w 15/2

Meh, only got in on 13/2

grateface

del roy wrote: »

3.40 Hellbender 2pts e/w 15/2

Meh, only got in on 13/2.

Taff

grateface wrote: »

Meh, only got in on 13/2.

was 7/1 earlier with BV.

With the dead eight declared consider Betfair to preserve the third place if you think it'll finish third

del roy wrote: »

3.40 Hellbender 2pts e/w 15/2

shamrock55

Got him @7/1 on pp, now all we need is for it to win:D

mike65

I'm waiting for the non-runner...

Local_Chap

Blazeofenchantment after going from 9/1 into 7/2 in the same race. Hellbender can be got at 8/1

mike65

4th/5th/6th or something unprofitable.

shamrock55

Feck him he finished 4th:(

del roy

3.40 hellbender 2pts e/w 15/2 4th


Bank +215.3pts
Starting bank 100pts
Profit +115.3pts

del roy

no bets Tuesday

del roy

del roy wrote: »

bank 158.4pts
starting bank 100 pts
profit +58.4pts

Just taking the 3pts e/w for the antepost bet on Tapestery

6th June The Oaks Tapestery 2pts e/w 12/1

We already have 3pts e/w on her in the 1000 guineas deducted from bank already.

He must be taken a view she is a superstar.

del roy

5.00 perfect pastime 1pt e/w. 16/1

del roy

Bank +211.3pts
Starting bank 100pts
Profit +111.3pts

Just deducted the 2pts e/w bet for the oaks, guineas bet already deducted.

Ante-post
1000 Guineas Tapestery 3pts e/w 8/1
6th June The Oaks Tapestery 2pts e/w 12/1

Hope she is at least above average.

bookman2

del roy wrote: »

5.00 perfect pastime 1pt e/w. 16/1

6/1 now(what is the R4?) hope it wins for ye lads.

mike65

bookman2 wrote: »

6/1 now(what is the R4?) hope it wins for ye lads.

Bertie Blu Boy is out and was the favourite I think (even from stall 13).

irish_major

mike65 wrote: »

Bertie Blu Boy is out and was the favourite I think (even from stall 13).

Thank you

del roy

think its 20 in the euro/pound lads

Pinesky

Probably beaten 2.5 lengths . Ran 4 wide till final turn where it ended up 10 wide.
Did not punish unduly in the final half furlong . Has a race in it.

del roy

Pinesky

I have to say some of the kids horses have got some bad rides and before anyone says swings and roundabout,

I do think any other jockey on that horse he would have got 3rd but hey we get paid on the official result.

Pinesky

del roy wrote: »

Pinesky

I have to say some of the kids horses have got some bad rides and before anyone says swings and roundabout,

I do think any other jockey on that horse he would have got 3rd but hey we get paid on the official result.

interestingly pietro innocenzi commentated in RP today that Brockle bank should have had 2 wins instead of 2 seconds

del roy

Pinesky wrote: »

interestingly pietro innocenzi commentated in RP today that Brockle bank should have had 2 wins instead of 2 seconds

Don't mention that fooking horse :mad:

del roy

5.00 perfect passtime 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl

Bank +209.3pts
Starting bank 100pts
Profit +109.3pts



Ante-post
1000 Guineas Tapestery 3pts e/w 8/1
6th June The Oaks Tapestery 2pts e/w 12/1

del roy

No bet today

del roy

Lincoln Handicap Doncaster Saturday

Jacks revenge 2pts e/w 16/1


Bank +209.3pts
Starting bank 100pts
Profit +109.3pts



Ante-post
1000 Guineas Tapestery 3pts e/w 8/1
6th June The Oaks Tapestery 2pts e/w 12/1

del roy

del roy wrote: »

Lincoln Handicap Doncaster Saturday

Jacks revenge 2pts e/w 16/1

Anyone know the last time G.Baker did 8st 10Lb, did n't thing he did that weight.


Bank +209.3pts
Starting bank 100pts
Profit +109.3pts



Ante-post
1000 Guineas Tapestery 3pts e/w 8/1
6th June The Oaks Tapestery 2pts e/w 12/1

.

Nulty

del roy wrote: »

.

George Baker the trainer, not the jockey

del roy

FFs forget last question I just twigged on G.Baker the trainer, Sweeney riding it.

del roy

Thanks Nulty, i CANNOT CHECK MYSELF AS ALL THE SPORTING SITES ARE BANNED FROM OUR COMPUTERS.

del roy

Friday 3.20 Pierrers Bounty 2pts e/w 11/1

Bank +209.3pts
Starting bank 100pts
Profit +109.3pts



Ante-post
1000 Guineas Tapestery 3pts e/w 8/1
6th June The Oaks Tapestery 2pts e/w 12/1

mike65

del roy wrote: »

Friday 3.20 Pierrers Bounty 2pts e/w 11/1

Thats PPs money back race for tomorrow - single stakes on 2nd and 3rd placed horses. Pity its a 15 runner race.