Can the book be beaten ...long term?

premierstone

mulbot wrote: »

well true,but i was referring to the sportsbook part(same as other bookmakers) the exchange is different,but now thats another point-will u be able to get on consistent bets on the exchange? if so,then no problem

The races being picked here are not that obscure, definitely plenty of liquidity in those markets.

NewApproach

premierstone wrote: »

The races being picked here are not that obscure, definitely plenty of liquidity in those markets.

Have you not logged into Betfair in the last 18 months? Liquidity midweek before 1pm is just non-existant outside of the festivals.

carpothepunk

Liquidity non existant overnight. Lads marking bookies cards for 50 quid overnight.

sibersha

del roy wrote: »

Someone on here said the bookies don't bother with threads like this, I find that hard to be believe because I have had accounts closed with very little winnings that were linked to this thread, two on the same day after dr Finley won 9/2.

I take it you are only betting the kids selections and not doing your own stuff; with one bet everyday or two, backing early prices and often beating the price. These are the reasons your accounts have been closed.

Also if the same people from the thread are backing the selections at the same time as you with the same bookmakers - it could be flagged up as a tipping line.

premierstone

carpothepunk wrote: »

Liquidity non existant overnight. Lads marking bookies cards for 50 quid overnight.

NewApproach wrote: »

Have you not logged into Betfair in the last 18 months? Liquidity midweek before 1pm is just non-existant outside of the festivals.

Hands up I must admit I haven't really, I don't back horses anymore aside form the big festivals or if I get a tip from a trusted source, Golf and GAA my main areas of activity these days.

del roy

Howjoe1 wrote: »

Del,

It will be interesting to see where this finishes at the end of the 6 month period. Like you, I would have preferred to assess a full year, because I to would be surprised if a worthwhile profit could be achieved.

Ironically the stats have been poor since the 100+ pm interest.

I make the return -23.4pts since that point. You had stated that you had up your stake to €40 per pts which leave a loss of €928 for the recent period.

Also if the 100 people who expressed an interest since then backed on average €10 per pts, the bookies would be richer by €23,400 !

Food for thought. Let's hope the blip ends and it turns around. I'll keep observing with interest.

Hey Joe how much for €10 off each of the hundred for the whole of the thread. :P

just joking joe

del roy

3.05 kings chorister 2pts e/w. 7/1

darced

This post has been deleted.

del roy

darced wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Don't know to be honest as he is going to the states for two weeks, leaving on the 12th may so we will have a rest from him anyway however if he kicks of again I don't know,

Anyway six months is not enough time to say whether you can beat the book or not, I would need 2 years of selections to make a call on that. :D:D

Shanee.

His record is very good. Anyone trade his runners IR or pre-race? I'd imagine all traded lower that advised.

bookman2

excellent what a thread!

hawaii501

Nice start to a glorious weekend thanks to the kid 😎

matthew8

Get in Kings Chorister. 5-1 by the time I woke up but still a nice profit.

mulbot

beautiful beautiful,well done del,kid,

sdoc13

Superb. Just superb. Thanks del and the kid.

premierstone

Nooiicceee enjoy the weekend boys I know I will, aboy the kid

the whole year inn

Yep thanks

Realalemadrid

LONG LIVE THE KID !

del roy

Little boom there lads 7/1

mikehunts

del roy wrote: »

3.05 kings chorister 2pts e/w. 7/1

Very nice, second year to win that race sweet call

redzerdrog

by the time i got on stan james were the only ones still 7/1 but werent best odds guaranteed it was an easy decision to take the 7s though

nice start to the weekend

NaiveMelodies

This boys got game, the lad is like a young 'Monterosso'.

Would love too see his reasoning in print, always intrigued by how these geniuses work out their picks.

Del Roy, why don't you become his ghost writer?

Deco99

Well this stood out as unusual to me when I checked after del posted. He was bottom weight despite winning it last year and racing post had him as the top rated also. Not sure if kid took that into his choice but long may his reign continue.. long live the kid.

del roy

del roy wrote: »

3.05 kings chorister 2pts e/w. 7/1

Del Roy, why don't you become his ghost writer?

Stevo, I would love to say I have a deep discussion with him about the selections but the above is all I get texted to me,

sorry about that.

Deco99

del roy wrote: »

Del Roy, why don't you become his ghost writer?

Stevo, I would love to say I have a deep discussion with him about the selections but the above is all I get texted to me,

sorry about that.

Thats why we love him... no bull****

He was 5s by the time I got on him, so didn't back e/w, but Alls well that ends well.

Nice one del and the kid.

darced

This post has been deleted.

NaiveMelodies

del roy wrote: »

Del Roy, why don't you become his ghost writer?

Stevo, I would love to say I have a deep discussion with him about the selections but the above is all I get texted to me,

sorry about that.

Wishful thinking!!

Nonoperational

This is really most extraordinary.

Slattsy

Didnt back it, but well done to all that did

Some pick.

eugene123

again great tipping, great to hear the kid is extending the thread to august.

mike65

I keep missing the winners :mad:

How do you have 88 odd thousand posts?

by posting on boards. (note the cunning use of this quote from above, this way I do not increase my post count by one. Is that okay with you?)

NewApproach

mike65 wrote: »

I keep missing the winners :mad:

How do you have 88 odd thousand posts? :eek:

del roy

NewApproach wrote: »

How do you have 88 odd thousand posts? :eek:

Most bets are up the night before maybe you need to get up earlier

Eugene i was informed tonight by text thread finishing 9th may.
Felt like getting dumped by text.

mulbot

del roy wrote: »

Most bets are up the night before maybe you need to get up earlier

Eugene i was informed tonight by text thread finishing 9th may.
Felt like getting dumped by text.

NOOOOOOOOOOO

del roy

3.05 kings chorister 2pts e/w 7/1 1st.....16.8 profit

Bank +264.2pts
Starting bank 100pts
Profit +164.2pts

Started 9th December 2013

1/ 1.45 Vallani 8/1 2pts e/w 3rd
2/ 2.00 Monsieur Jamie 1pt e/w 8/1 unpl
3/ 7.50 Great Ability 12/1 2pts e/w unpl
4/ 2.00 Module 3/1 5pts unpl
5/ 3.15 mister dillion 2pts e/w 10/1 unpl
6/ 8.20 small john 2pts e/w 7/1 unpl
7/ 1.20 Riddleofthesands 4/1 2pts win unpl
8/ 3.35 Irish saint 2pts e/w 20/1 unpl
9/ 12.50 supreme carolina 1pt e/w 14/1 3rd
10/ 2.35 mountainous 1pt e/w 20/1 1st
11/ 3.30 vovalein 4pts win 7/2 2nd
12/ 1.55 aureate 9/1 2pts e/w unpl
13/ 9.15 sceilig 4pts win 2nd
14/ 1.35 Milan flyer. 2pts e/w 8/1 unpl
15/ 3.35 Saffran De Cotte 2pts e/w 14/1 unpl
16/ 3.45 Archie rice 2pts e/w 8/1 1st
17/ 2.40 Irish thistle 5pts win 7/4 1st
18/ 4.00 lady bridget 1pt e/w 12/1 unpl
19/ 4.10 Admiral Blake 2pts e/w 9/1 1st
20/ 7.25 Ice apple 1pt e/w 10/1 3rd
21/ 4.05 Keep kicking 2pts e/w 6/1 1st
22/ 2.25 Irish saint 2pts e/w 8/1 1st
23/ 3.45 True to form 1pt e/w 14/1 unpl
24/ 2.30 fair comment 1pt e/w 8/1 unpl
25/ 3.10 Midnight charmer 2pts win 5/2 1st
26/ 3.00 Bennelong 1pt e/w 7/1 unpl
27/ 4.10 captain scoopy 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl
28/ 2.40 hunters lodge 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl
29/ 3.15 noble deed 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl
30/ 3.15 money spider 1pt e/w 33/1 unpl
31/ 8.15 New Rich 2pts e/w 8/1 1st
32/ 2.55 Mr Marker 1pt e/w 14/1 1st r4 10c
33/ 2.30 ghost train 1pt e/w 14/1 2nd
34/ 2.50 scruffy tramp 2pts win 4/1 unpl
35/ 3.05 xaarcetet 1pt e/w. 14/1 unpl
36/ 3.15 bygone sovereign 1pt e/w. 12/1 unpl
37/ 1.45. Shan valley 3pts win 5/1 2nd
38/ 3.55 Dundee 2pts e/w 9/1 unpl
39/ 2.20 Vallani 2pts e/w 12/1 unpl
40/ 6.50 Lisahane Bog 2pts e/w 12/1 unpl
41/ 3.00 Profile Star 5pts win 5/1 2nd
42/ 5.10 true to form. 2pts e/w 12/1 1st
43/ 5.15 mikemccaan 3pts win. 3/1 unpl
44/ 4.20 pass the hat 1pt e/w 14/1 1st
45/ 3.20 Jezski 2pts e/w 9/1 1st
46/ 5.15 Royal Vacation 1/2pt e/w 40/1 unpl
47/ 6.15 Arabian Heights 3pts win 7/2
48/ 1.30 Double Ross 1pt e/w 14/1 3rd
49/ 2.05 Alaivan 2pts e/w. 14/1 unpl
50/ 3.15 Bob tucker 2pts e/w 10/1 unpl
51/ 3.45 Give me a break 1pt e/w 12/1 unpl
52/ 3.35 You Know Yourself 2pts e/w 9/1 unpl
53/ 5.00 Teide peak 3pts win 5/1 1st
54/ 4.05 Brocklebank 3pts win 4/1 2nd
55/ 3.10 Dundee 2pts e/w 12/1 2nd
56/ 1.30 Bright Applause 2pts win unpl
57/ 5.00 Brocklebank 2pts e/w 12/1 2nd
58/ 4.40 Chaval rouge 2pts e/w 25/1 unpl
59/ 4.00 hellbender 2pts e/w 15/2 unpl
60/ 5.00 Perfect passtime 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl
61/ 3.20 Pierrer Bounty 2pt e/w 11/1 unpl
62/ 3.15 Jacks revenge 2pts e/w 16/1 unp
63/ 4.45 Monetary Fund 2pts e/w 12/1 unpl
64/ 5.25 Dr Finley 4pts win 3/1 9/2 s.p 1st
65/ 4.15 Kings grey 2pts e/w 20/1 unpl
66/ 5.15 spirit of shankley 2pts e/w 14/1 unpl
67/ 4.50 Pass the time. 2pts e/w. 16/1 unpl
68/ 4.15 One in a milan 1/2 point e/w 66/1 fell
69/ 4.15 Hawkes Point 1pt e/w 40/1 unpl
70/ 3.40 daring indian 2pts e/w 15/2 unpl
71/ 2.30 Oliver's mount 4 pts win. 5/1 1st
72/ 3.50 Godsmejudge 2pts e/w 16/1 2nd
73/ 4.00 Cape breton 2pts e/w 16/1 unpl
74/ 4.15 Zamra 2pts e/w 6/1 1st dh 13/2
75/ 4.40 barley mo 3pts win 5/1 unpl
76/ 4.25 Imperial leader 2pts e/w 14/1 unpl
77/ 1.45 icebuster 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl
78/ 3.30 Communicator 2pts e/w 11/1 3rd
79/ 3.15 Haydock Streams of Whiskey 2pts 18/1 1st
80/ 3.30 Kempton Circumvent 1pt e/w 14/1 4th
81/ 5.00 Home Farm 2pt e/w 11/1 unpl
82/ 2.25 Indus Valley 2pts e/w 8/1 unpl
83/ 3.00 Bretherton 2pts e/w 10/1 2nd
84/ 3.25 Salutation 2pts e/w 12/1 unpl
85/ 2000 guineas bet N.R loss 4pts
86/ 3.05 kings chorister 2pts e/w 7/1 1st

1000 Guineas Tapestery 3pts e/w 8/1 ?????
The Oaks Tapestery 2pts e/w 12/1 ?????

del roy

3.50 Roalco De Farges 2pts e/w 11/1 ppowers 5 places
5.20 new leaf 2pts e/w 12/1 ppowers


sorry I thought I put these up earlier.

del roy

del roy wrote: »

3.50 Roalco De Farges 2pts e/w 11/1 ppowers 5 places
5.20 new leaf 2pts e/w 12/1 ppowers


What's the story with new leaf 7/1 what price was the n.r

mulbot

del roy wrote: »

del roy wrote: »

3.50 Roalco De Farges 2pts e/w 11/1 ppowers 5 places
5.20 new leaf 2pts e/w 12/1 ppowers


What's the story with new leaf 7/1 what price was the n.r

no idea,was wondering what caused such a collapse,ah well

Whosthis

NR was 7s

Taff

Whosthis wrote: »

NR was 7s

taken out at 9:04 for Rule 4 purposes, 10% reduction so still better if you had the early price

matthew8

Farges was looking good but slowed down big time, New Leyf just a disaster, never in it.

del roy

Yep Matt, New leaf was a shocker, :eek:


Bank +256.2pts
Starting bank 100pts
Profit +156.2pts

Started 9th December 2013

1/ 1.45 Vallani 8/1 2pts e/w 3rd
2/ 2.00 Monsieur Jamie 1pt e/w 8/1 unpl
3/ 7.50 Great Ability 12/1 2pts e/w unpl
4/ 2.00 Module 3/1 5pts unpl
5/ 3.15 mister dillion 2pts e/w 10/1 unpl
6/ 8.20 small john 2pts e/w 7/1 unpl
7/ 1.20 Riddleofthesands 4/1 2pts win unpl
8/ 3.35 Irish saint 2pts e/w 20/1 unpl
9/ 12.50 supreme carolina 1pt e/w 14/1 3rd
10/ 2.35 mountainous 1pt e/w 20/1 1st
11/ 3.30 vovalein 4pts win 7/2 2nd
12/ 1.55 aureate 9/1 2pts e/w unpl
13/ 9.15 sceilig 4pts win 2nd
14/ 1.35 Milan flyer. 2pts e/w 8/1 unpl
15/ 3.35 Saffran De Cotte 2pts e/w 14/1 unpl
16/ 3.45 Archie rice 2pts e/w 8/1 1st
17/ 2.40 Irish thistle 5pts win 7/4 1st
18/ 4.00 lady bridget 1pt e/w 12/1 unpl
19/ 4.10 Admiral Blake 2pts e/w 9/1 1st
20/ 7.25 Ice apple 1pt e/w 10/1 3rd
21/ 4.05 Keep kicking 2pts e/w 6/1 1st
22/ 2.25 Irish saint 2pts e/w 8/1 1st
23/ 3.45 True to form 1pt e/w 14/1 unpl
24/ 2.30 fair comment 1pt e/w 8/1 unpl
25/ 3.10 Midnight charmer 2pts win 5/2 1st
26/ 3.00 Bennelong 1pt e/w 7/1 unpl
27/ 4.10 captain scoopy 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl
28/ 2.40 hunters lodge 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl
29/ 3.15 noble deed 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl
30/ 3.15 money spider 1pt e/w 33/1 unpl
31/ 8.15 New Rich 2pts e/w 8/1 1st
32/ 2.55 Mr Marker 1pt e/w 14/1 1st r4 10c
33/ 2.30 ghost train 1pt e/w 14/1 2nd
34/ 2.50 scruffy tramp 2pts win 4/1 unpl
35/ 3.05 xaarcetet 1pt e/w. 14/1 unpl
36/ 3.15 bygone sovereign 1pt e/w. 12/1 unpl
37/ 1.45. Shan valley 3pts win 5/1 2nd
38/ 3.55 Dundee 2pts e/w 9/1 unpl
39/ 2.20 Vallani 2pts e/w 12/1 unpl
40/ 6.50 Lisahane Bog 2pts e/w 12/1 unpl
41/ 3.00 Profile Star 5pts win 5/1 2nd
42/ 5.10 true to form. 2pts e/w 12/1 1st
43/ 5.15 mikemccaan 3pts win. 3/1 unpl
44/ 4.20 pass the hat 1pt e/w 14/1 1st
45/ 3.20 Jezski 2pts e/w 9/1 1st
46/ 5.15 Royal Vacation 1/2pt e/w 40/1 unpl
47/ 6.15 Arabian Heights 3pts win 7/2
48/ 1.30 Double Ross 1pt e/w 14/1 3rd
49/ 2.05 Alaivan 2pts e/w. 14/1 unpl
50/ 3.15 Bob tucker 2pts e/w 10/1 unpl
51/ 3.45 Give me a break 1pt e/w 12/1 unpl
52/ 3.35 You Know Yourself 2pts e/w 9/1 unpl
53/ 5.00 Teide peak 3pts win 5/1 1st
54/ 4.05 Brocklebank 3pts win 4/1 2nd
55/ 3.10 Dundee 2pts e/w 12/1 2nd
56/ 1.30 Bright Applause 2pts win unpl
57/ 5.00 Brocklebank 2pts e/w 12/1 2nd
58/ 4.40 Chaval rouge 2pts e/w 25/1 unpl
59/ 4.00 hellbender 2pts e/w 15/2 unpl
60/ 5.00 Perfect passtime 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl
61/ 3.20 Pierrer Bounty 2pt e/w 11/1 unpl
62/ 3.15 Jacks revenge 2pts e/w 16/1 unp
63/ 4.45 Monetary Fund 2pts e/w 12/1 unpl
64/ 5.25 Dr Finley 4pts win 3/1 9/2 s.p 1st
65/ 4.15 Kings grey 2pts e/w 20/1 unpl
66/ 5.15 spirit of shankley 2pts e/w 14/1 unpl
67/ 4.50 Pass the time. 2pts e/w. 16/1 unpl
68/ 4.15 One in a milan 1/2 point e/w 66/1 fell
69/ 4.15 Hawkes Point 1pt e/w 40/1 unpl
70/ 3.40 daring indian 2pts e/w 15/2 unpl
71/ 2.30 Oliver's mount 4 pts win. 5/1 1st
72/ 3.50 Godsmejudge 2pts e/w 16/1 2nd
73/ 4.00 Cape breton 2pts e/w 16/1 unpl
74/ 4.15 Zamra 2pts e/w 6/1 1st dh 13/2
75/ 4.40 barley mo 3pts win 5/1 unpl
76/ 4.25 Imperial leader 2pts e/w 14/1 unpl
77/ 1.45 icebuster 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl
78/ 3.30 Communicator 2pts e/w 11/1 3rd
79/ 3.15 Haydock Streams of Whiskey 2pts 18/1 1st
80/ 3.30 Kempton Circumvent 1pt e/w 14/1 4th
81/ 5.00 Home Farm 2pt e/w 11/1 unpl
82/ 2.25 Indus Valley 2pts e/w 8/1 unpl
83/ 3.00 Bretherton 2pts e/w 10/1 2nd
84/ 3.25 Salutation 2pts e/w 12/1 unpl
85/ 2000 guineas bet N.R loss 4pts
86/ 3.05 kings chorister 2pts e/w 7/1 1st
87/ 3.50 Roalco De Farges 2pts e/w 11/1 unpl
88/ 5.20 new leaf 2pts e/w 12/1 unpl


1000 Guineas Tapestery 3pts e/w 8/1 ?????
The Oaks Tapestery 2pts e/w 12/1 ?????

qwabercd

The drift from 7s to 16s said it all. Think I've backed 8 or 9 of kids bets so far, have had 2 each ways and nothing else. Considering his run, it's annoying!

del roy

qwabercd wrote: »

The drift from 7s to 16s said it all. Think I've backed 8 or 9 of kids bets so far, have had 2 each ways and nothing else. Considering his run, it's annoying!

Murphys law mate, do your head in.

mulbot

qwabercd wrote: »

The drift from 7s to 16s said it all. Think I've backed 8 or 9 of kids bets so far, have had 2 each ways and nothing else. Considering his run, it's annoying!

i've a friend who only decides to bet on the odd one from the thread(he gets the losers:D:D) to make something like this work ya need to follow all,

qwabercd

mulbot wrote: »

i've a friend who only decides to bet on the odd one from the thread(he gets the losers:D:D) to make something like this work ya need to follow all,

Without a doubt. Been busy at work so don't get to log on every day. Often log in, I know straight away when I see a few new pages that it's gonna be all of the "well done" and "thank you" posts and I've missed another one:D

del roy

Only one bet tomorrow

5.45 Lutine Charlie 2pts e/w 10/1

Nulty

del roy wrote: »

Only one bet tomorrow

5.45 Lutine Charlie 2pts e/w 10/1

Ah old Lutine Charlie. I've been chasing that horse for a couple of years...gave up on him long ago.

Oh, I meant Lutine Bell. Disregard!

del roy

Well Aul charlie did n't get much assistance from the jockey there, did anyone see the head on that was shown on ruk.