Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

ninebeanrows

Interesting feature for Saturday on 18z, these little lows can cause trouble
with unexpectedly strong winds, they rise and fall quickly, something ala 1997.

They are really dangerous features and must be closely watched, only few ECMWF Ensembles built
it to this level, but it is these types of features that don't get forecast properly until much closer
to the event.

Also looking at the timing, striking during Saturday afternoon with Dublin at major risk, would be a real dangerous event.

weisses

munsterlegend wrote: »

Very quiet in here considering we have a code orange tomorrow! It will be interesting to see if Mondays event is going to be any closer to our shores.

http://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/0/0/IE-Ireland.html

Nothing about orange here ... Or am i looking at the wrong place ?

munsterlegend

weisses wrote: »

http://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/0/0/IE-Ireland.html

Nothing about orange here ... Or am i looking at the wrong place ?

www.met.ie has a warning.

maquiladora

weisses wrote: »

http://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/0/0/IE-Ireland.html

Nothing about orange here ... Or am i looking at the wrong place ?

branie

Will all the country be affected, or should we wait and see?

aisling86

Looks like mostly red warninghttp://irelandsweather.com/weather-warning/severe-gales/

weisses

Wouldn't Meteoalarm not automatically take over the warnings from any national weather service? ... pretty useless the way it is now it seems

maquiladora

weisses wrote: »

Wouldn't Meteoalarm not automatically take over the warnings from any national weather service? ... pretty useless the way it is now it seems

Met Eireann supply the warnings to Meteoalarm. You're looking at todays page on Meteoalarm. Click on tomorrow.

branie

The best thing is wait and see

Weathering

aisling86 wrote: »

Looks like mostly red warninghttp://irelandsweather.com/weather-warning/severe-gales/

That's from yesterday

maquiladora

Weathering wrote: »

That's from yesterday

No, thats for tomorrow. But thats a private weather website though. Not official Met Eireann warnings.

ninebeanrows

Tomorrow see's a large area of 45-60kt wind gusts. Very strong winds, but nothing too exceptional, however the winds will be felt much more widespread than during yesterday's event and could cause minor damage.

Weathering

maquiladora wrote: »

No, thats for tomorrow. But thats a private weather website though. Not official Met Eireann warnings.

My Mistake, that link was yesterdays storm but I just saw the red warning for tomorrow as well ha

hats199

No, that was last years winter weather forecast, THIS is this years: COLD winter ahead

ElizaT33

Past few days MT Cranium has been spot on - earlier warnings of events than our own "dear" Met Eireann. Thanks so much MT - I look up your forecasts before Met.ie these days and it's a great help. I LOVE WILD WEATHER, just hate driving in it - so it's great to be prepared !

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

Interesting feature for Saturday on 18z, these little lows can cause trouble
with unexpectedly strong winds, they rise and fall quickly, something ala 1997.

They are really dangerous features and must be closely watched, only few ECMWF Ensembles built
it to this level, but it is these types of features that don't get forecast properly until much closer
to the event.

Also looking at the timing, striking during Saturday afternoon with Dublin at major risk, would be a real dangerous event.

It's an interesting little feature alright. NAE and HIRLAM don't seem to develop it much or at all though so low probability at the moment I'd say.



Possibility of a secondary low on Monday needs to be watched too.

Harps

I mentioned that one this morning, its the type of feature that can suddenly pop up as being severe when a few hours earlier it was forecast as nothing more than a bit of a breeze. We'll be glued to the models all week again by the looks of it, plenty of interesting weather possible through the coming week, gotta love these active setups

maquiladora

When was the last time you saw a 949mb low off the Wexford coast? Think this would end up a bit further north. Lots to keep an eye on.

branie

It mightn't be that bad

Hooter23

I think the Update on the Fax chart tonight has Mondays storm closer again!

Weathering

Hooter23 wrote: »

I think the Update on the Fax chart tonight has Mondays storm closer again!

Yes it does

maquiladora

Weathering wrote: »

Yes it does

Yeah looks like they didn't change anything from the UKMO.

Daniel2590

maquiladora wrote: »

When was the last time you saw a 949mb low off the Wexford coast? Think this would end up a bit further north. Lots to keep an eye on.

Now if only we got that with a nice snow covered Europe to our East... :pac:

aboyro

maquiladora wrote: »

When was the last time you saw a 949mb low off the Wexford coast? Think this would end up a bit further north. Lots to keep an eye on.

To me there always the dangerous one's ENE or north wind, when we're conditioned for the prevailing SW mean's more damage than normal. was in the city yesterday during the squall, i swear it sound like a hurricane and at one point in time thought i could hear an air raid siren:eek:

Oscar Bravo

Met Eireann 2349 update and they are not taking any chances this time....Monday: Stormy on Monday and into Monday night, as heavy rain and gale force southerly winds give way to colder showery conditions with gale force southwest winds with severe squalls, which may cause some structural damage in places

branie

How about Christmas eve?

maquiladora

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Met Eireann 2349 update and they are not taking any chances this time....Monday: Stormy on Monday and into Monday night, as heavy rain and gale force southerly winds give way to colder showery conditions with gale force southwest winds with severe squalls, which may cause some structural damage in places

While the exact details of what happens on Monday (and the rest of the week...) remain unknown, it's safe to say that one thing we won't see will be high pressure and settled weather! It's like as if someone flicks a stick at 0Z on ther 23rd.

Oscar Bravo

Cold, very windy and showery on Christmas Eve, some showers possibly wintry on higher ground of the west or northwest. Afternoon highs of 5 to 7 degrees.
Cold and frosty overnight.
Latest indications suggest a frosty start to Christmas morning. The day is expected to be cold and bright day with some showers especially in the south and west with another milder, wet and extremely windy or stormy period expected on St Stephen's day

munsterlegend

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Met Eireann 2349 update and they are not taking any chances this time....Monday: Stormy on Monday and into Monday night, as heavy rain and gale force southerly winds give way to colder showery conditions with gale force southwest winds with severe squalls, which may cause some structural damage in places

You would think they would have waited until their morning update and further information charts available as still a lot of uncertainty.

branie

Just saw the weather report with Martin King. Clare, where I live, looks ok for today