Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

Oscar Bravo

Suppose with the amount of people that will be on the move Monday they want to give a heads up even if it doesn't get to bad and rightly so.

branie

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Met Eireann 2349 update and they are not taking any chances this time....Monday: Stormy on Monday and into Monday night, as heavy rain and gale force southerly winds give way to colder showery conditions with gale force southwest winds with severe squalls, which may cause some structural damage in places

Which parts of the country? Not all of it might be affected

munsterlegend

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Suppose with the amount of people that will be on the move Monday they want to give a heads up even if it doesn't get to bad and rightly so.

Busy day alright. It will be interesting what the charts show in the next few days.

maquiladora

Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 20 Dec 2013 06:00 to Sat 21 Dec 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 19 Dec 2013 23:22
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK

A level 1 and level 2 were issued for Ireland, parts of the UK and the North Sea for severe convective wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

....

Further West, the warm sector of an outstanding Atlantic cyclone will overspread the British Isles with plentiful rain and 850 hPa winds up to 40 m/s. Scattered to widespread severe wind gusts are expected in the warm sector, where the pressure gradient is strongest, as well as along and behind the cold front, which will swiftly cross Ireland and Scotland after 18 UTC before it will gradually decelerate over England and the North Sea. It will mark the transition from rain to showers and isolated thunderstorms, which can easily mix down 850 hPa winds which are still between 25 and 30 m/s in the postfrontal air mass. A level 1 was drawn for those areas where an involvement of deep convection in the gust generation is expected. The Scottish West coast and the Hebrides were upgraded to a level 2, since they are favourably placed in the left exit region of a very strong jet streak. Hence deeper and more widespread convection, possibly in form of an organized line along the cold front, with an even higher risk of severe wind gusts is anticipated.
Additional subordinate risks are localized flooding (the convective contribution to the high rainfall totals will be small, though) and a brief tornado along the cold front, which is preceded by a tongue of very moist air (2m dewpoints up to 10°C) and strong directional wind shear.

...

kerrycork13

Prob wont be as bad as wed weather but still quite gusty whilst the rain makes it way through.

maquiladora

18Z EURO4 is showing sustained winds just below gale force inland in the east/southeast tomorrow. 30-35mph is not a big deal for coastal areas, but it's less common inland, in the eastern half of the country anyway. Add gusts on top of that I think there'll be some weakened trees and tree limbs down here and there. It's not going to be anything major, but worth being aware of.



For comparison, this was Wednesday at the time that band of rain and wind crossed the country. Similar overall, but it was maybe about 5-10mph weaker than what is expected for tomorrow for some places.

syklops

Im dying to see what Malcolm has to say.

aboyro

Not relevant to everyone but interesting all the same


http://magicseaweed.com/news/Big-Wave-World-Tour-Live-in-Europe-on-Sunday/5920/

kerrycork13

Could be wrong but do you not mean stronger than whats forecast tom. Wednesdays storm will top tomorrows I suspect?

Bsal

Looking nasty from about midday and lasting right into the night



with a lot of rain too

Weathering

Latest runs for Mondays/Xmas eve potential Storm

ECM

UKMO

While GFS has it in a similar position 12 hours sooner

GFS

kerrycork13

This is extremely interesting thread v detailed. Only joined boards.ie recently and love the weather so thanks to all the other weather lovers out there who post here.

force eleven

Mondays event getting into reliable time frame now and looking v nasty indeed. Still have today's winds too, and another storm around the 27th. Stay tuned here folks.

M.T. Cranium

Ouch, 930 mb low on ECM at day 4 ... not a very common occurrence. Recall when Ian posted the map from the Big Wind research project which I noted was in 8.3-mb intervals, well the comparison is as follows, the 1839 storm basically spanned 45 mb from north to south, your average minor damage low would be closer to 25-30, this one coming along on Monday (evening-night) is closer to 35. This would imply potential for sustained winds in the 60 kt range and gusts in the 90 to 100 kt range in exposed locations. Hence the concern about structural damage because this one will be 10-15 kt worse than the previous one, and also more widespread, if the maps are close to being right. Also, it is considerably slower moving, thus the span of strong winds will be longer (12 hours or so).

This tends to dwarf the rather considerable wind gust potential later today and Saturday morning but as already noted by other posters, only disruptive not damaging, by the looks of the maps -- I am saying 35 kt sustained to 55 kt gusts at exposed locations.

There is considerable uncertainty because once again the Monday system is not much on the current maps, a weak frontal wave that has been losing what little clout it possessed drifting east across southern Ontario. Same energy as a system that passed to my north about 2-3 days ago and was a weak 998 mb low, now it's more like 1006 mb. So that's not to say anything more than from these sparse beginnings, the models have fairly uniformly detected major storm potential across the Atlantic.

Anyway, for now would ask that a moderator perhaps change title to Level 2 and wording to read, Following very windy Friday evening, major windstorm potential Monday, level 3 status to be considered Sunday --

then with that sort of headline we can downgrade or upgrade or shift timing as required but it will get across both the current level of concern and the timing where greater certainty might come into focus.

However, just a suggestion, go stronger or stay on current message if you prefer.

fred funk }{

Great stuff as always lads. Thanks.

nobody told me

Travelling from Fishguard to rosslare sat morning will it be a rough crossing or will boats even be sailing?

ninebeanrows

Not to mention chance of extreme winds for a time tomorrow. Watching this one closely as could surprise and hit more densely populated south & east.

maquiladora

0Z ECM certainly looks dramatic in terms of pressure. 930-929mb Monday-Tuesday.





However the winds predicted by the model are only in the 45-50 knot range for the west coast, which is actually less severe than Wednesday nights storm, according to the wind charts both there and on the weather underground.

Worth pointing out that there is very strong support within the ECM ensembles for a deep depression to our northwest on Monday. About 18 out of 50 are actually more intense than the operational run, with some sub-920mb members.

ninebeanrows

Latest 6z GFS rolling out and this feature is still there and more prominent @ just 36hrs.

This would hit Dublin and surrounds with gusts towards 70kts and would be damaging.

Cuddled

Weathercheck wrote: »

Latest 6z GFS rolling out and this feature is still there and more prominent @ just 36hrs.

This would hit Dublin and surrounds with gusts towards 70kts

When?

Speak Now

Cuddled wrote: »

When?

Sunday

ninebeanrows

Cuddled wrote: »

When?

This is hitting tomorrow afternoon (Saturday)!! It is small scale feature and is very troublesome to forecast, this is the GFS take on it but very possible.

No warnings or mention of this from Met organisations.

It would strike Dublin and east coast with gusts >70kts if occurred as progged.

Larbre34

nobody told me wrote: »

Travelling from Fishguard to rosslare sat morning will it be a rough crossing or will boats even be sailing?

That could be subject to change at very short notice, your best bet is to monitor the websites and twitter of the operator. I know with the weekend thats in it, the superferries will sail if at all possible - even in uncomfortable weather, but to my knowledge only the Ulysses out of Dublin has never had to cancel due to weather conditions - I remember seeing her on a documentary that had her crossing in 60kt winds and big seas without much hassle.

Safe journey to anyone travelling over the weekend, I remember waiting for relatives in 2010 when air travel was a disaster with the freezing weather, so hopefully everyone gets to where they want to be without much delay.

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

Latest 6z GFS rolling out and this feature is still there and more prominent @ just 36hrs.

This would hit Dublin and surrounds with gusts towards 70kts and would be damaging.

Would be rough for southern/eastern areas alright.



NAE has it now, but further south and not as severe. One to keep an eye on.

chilipepper

Weathercheck wrote: »

Latest 6z GFS rolling out and this feature is still there and more prominent @ just 36hrs.

This would hit Dublin and surrounds with gusts towards 70kts and would be damaging.

That looks very similar to the 97 event that hit the west coast and that was a vicious little system.

maquiladora

A big difference in intensity between the 06Z GFS and the 0Z ECM for Monday. On the latest GFS the winds today would actually be stronger than on Monday, with the exception of the exposed northwest coast.

Looking at that little low that could spin up tomorrow, about 35 of 50 ECM ensembles show some form of it at 48 hours enetering the North Sea, though few develop it as much as the GFS does. Would imagine that its something the high res models would handle better than the GFS. Keeping an eye on it though.

force eleven

That spin off low at T36 GFS does indeed stand out like a sore thumb, vicious little puppy potentially. Very much a nowcast situation.

maquiladora

Very windy on the 27th on the 06Z GFS.

marvsins

chilipepper wrote: »

That looks very similar to the 97 event that hit the west coast and that was a vicious little system.

:eek:

http://irishecho.com/2011/02/holiday-storms-leave-ireland-wet-bewildered-2/

Eight Ball

nobody told me wrote: »

Travelling from Fishguard to rosslare sat morning will it be a rough crossing or will boats even be sailing?

Actually on the Dublin to Holyhead fast ferry tomorrow morning and just got a text saying its been cancelled. Have moved me unto the cruise ferry extra 2 hours on board :mad:. Gonna be a bad crossing think ill skip the breakfast :pac: