Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

V_Moth

Harps wrote: »

That storm would be more impressive for its size than its intensity, despite the look of that chart it wouldn't actually be all that bad for Ireland, the most intense wind would be well to the north west out in the Atlantic. With such a large windfield you'd probably get strong winds forcing their way further inland than usual rather than mainly being a coastal event but at a guess 50-60kts max over us.

Thanks. Lets hope it won't develop quite as bad as that!

Tactical

dopolahpec wrote: »

A nice Christmas present for who? The grim reaper?

A nice present for those of us here who are hoping for a decent wind event

It would make a fantastic end to 2013

maquiladora

It really is very rare to see the GFS ensembles throwing up stuff like this at just 78 hours out.



And it's not just one member.

John.Icy

maquiladora wrote: »

It really is very rare to see the GFS ensembles throwing up stuff like this at just 78 hours out.

{big scary lows}

My feelings indeed when going through the 12z set. Potential for a severe storm Tuesday is not gone totally yet.

M.T. Cranium

The odds at present would seem to be about like this:

5% chance no significant gusts 23-24 Dec

65% chance limited damage from gusts in 110-130 km/hr range

30% chance serious and widespread damage from gusts 130-160 km/hr

This is my take on the range of offered solutions and the only strong positive is that the 23-24 Dec storm has limited warmer air from which to derive energy. That might be the reason why the major models (most of their solutions, in any case) have signalled an outcome no worse than last Wed evening. Also of some help, astronomical tides are not near their maximum values by the 24th.

Having said that, a 30% chance of a severe damage scenario will keep all of us very alert between now and then. Let's hope that if the pressure does fall that low (930 mb or below) the centre stays well north -- in the 1839 storm the centre did not exactly hug the coast, so with pressures that low you have to have a wider clearance than with your garden variety 950 mb depressions, otherwise you're into the strongest part of its circulation (at least across the north).

The loop scenario is plausible too, given the slight retrogression of upper features now apparently underway. A loop could mean a stronger wind field on the 24th on the second pass. Anyway, the morning will bring a whole new set of guidance, there won't be much "news" on this situation from now to 0500h.

rickdangerouss

So far, as these systems have approached Ireland, most of them have either go less end of the world and missed target a little more so.
Hope this continues and does not get any short term upgrade.

branie

I think it's mostly coastal areas that are affected

Conmaicne Mara

Oooo couple of big raps of thunder just now.

tylercollins

Conmaicne Mara wrote: »

Oooo couple of big raps of thunder just now.

Few sparks showing up off the Coast of Donegal

cazzy15

Conmaicne Mara wrote: »

Oooo couple of big raps of thunder just now.

Where are you? I hate thunder

Xenji

cazzy15 wrote: »

Where are you? I hate thunder

I would assume Galway, just home after visiting relatives, Castlebar was wild and very wet between 7-10, some nice thunder and lightning around half 9 as well, completely calm and dry out now though.

cazzy15

Am in Galway here too....I need to get over my fear of thunder and lightening!

_Whimsical_

It still sounds absolutely wild and stormy in Galway city.

Conmaicne Mara

cazzy15 wrote: »

Where are you? I hate thunder

About 8km North ish of the Mace head station in Connemara.

No thunder since that I heard, still windy out, off to the leaba now.

squonk

North Clare: just had some well scattered lightening and a short burst of rain here. Most of the lightening was at least 1-2 miles away so not that exciting really!

M.T. Cranium

Widespread lightning indicated southwest of Kerry at 0530h, satellite imagery suggests heavy thunderstorm complex moving into west Munster. Expect a battering of rain, hail and thunder across Munster this morning, may hold together into south and central Leinster late morning or mid-day.

leahyl

Woken by driving rain, wind and thunder and lightning :-O!!!

JanuarySnowstor

Thunder just kicking off in cork now. Winds v gusty

maquiladora

0Z ECM is 925mb at 72 hours. It deepens the low 55mb in 24 hours.

brianville

Crazy rain and prolonged thunder just outside cork city

Tazio

leahyl wrote: »

Woken by driving rain, wind and thunder and lightning :-O!!!

Same here.. Lighting and bang within.second.of each other.. Very.close!!

Riverstick.co.cork..

leahyl

I'm in the city so I guess more is on the way!! Very calm now again!

pad199207

Friend just woke me up textin torrential rain and lightning in cork. Near dunkettle

brianville

Im near bandon. Rain has increased now with a constant rumble of thunder.

Scartbeg

Heavy thunderstorm in South Tipp the last half hour. Power out since the first strike nearby. Moving towards Clonmel now.

Understandably glad to have survived this one intact, we had a direct strike to the house earlier this year!

maquiladora

Met Eireann put out an orange warning for Cork/Kerry/Limerick until 12.

darragh o meara

Thunder and lightening here in Newcastle Co.Tipp. at the moment. Right overhead by the sounds of it, crazy hail stones with it.

leahyl

pad199207 wrote: »

Friend just woke me up textin torrential rain and lightning in cork. Near dunkettle

I'm near dunkettle too and it's completely calm now! Not a puff of wind, no thunder or lightning! It just switched off like that! I expect it to return though!

And here we go again...just heard thunder, rain is back!!

DOCARCH

pad199207 wrote: »

Friend just woke me up textin...

Some friend textin at this hour! :rolleyes::P

Sephiroth_dude

leahyl wrote: »

Woken by driving rain, wind and thunder and lightning :-O!!!

Me too

Out in ballincollig.