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Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

Iancar29 · 2013-12-11 15:08:31

A substantial upgrade on this mornings 06z in terms of tightening of isobars off the West coast merits a level 2 warning in my opinion. Whats giving rise to this stormy spell is the low pressure making its way East across the atlantic is getting squashed by the strong high pressure over europe . Winds will start picking up…

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#1802 22-12-2013 3:37pm
maquiladora

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M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Well I don't know what their period of record is, but suspect the pressure might have been close to 940 mb on 8 Dec 1886 when a very deep low crossed the north and was responsible for severe damage and maritime casualties on both sides of the Irish Sea (night of 8-9 Dec).

The November record is from 1838 so the period would cover that.

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#1803 22-12-2013 3:48pm
ch750536

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Redsunset wrote: »

Reposting this from jirafa.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ICeK53znag

An excellent presentation there.

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#1804 22-12-2013 3:49pm
savj2

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I'm flying to Madrid at 16:00 on Friday 27th. The storm is going to disrupt that which is a pain and I have to get a connection in Madrid to Santiago. Just checking the European model and it doesn't look as potent as on the GFS.

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#1805 22-12-2013 3:59pm
nacho libre

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_Whimsical_ wrote: »

From the BBC forecast it looks like the UK are preparing for this as a big storm. Is it possible that it will affect them but not us?

.

the west and northwest Of Ireland will see the worst of it, based on present guidance you could have gusts of between 70- 90 mph + gusts in coastal regions there. however, there is always the possibilty of a late minute wobble which means the track of the low swings further north at the last moment, which could mean ireland escapes the worst of it

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#1806 22-12-2013 4:19pm
cherryghost

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THIS ISN'T A SNOW THREAD

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#1807 22-12-2013 4:22pm
maquiladora

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Latest NAE has a swathe of 70-75 mph sustained winds heading for the west coast tomorrow night.

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#1808 22-12-2013 4:25pm
[Deleted User]
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cherryghost wrote: »

THIS ISN'T A SNOW THREAD

Snow way!

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#1809 22-12-2013 4:29pm
nacho libre

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this is an important thread for people who are travelling in and out the country over the festive period, leave the reports of snow to this other thread :http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057094784&page=7

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#1810 22-12-2013 4:32pm
howlinwolf

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Redsunset wrote: »

Reposting this from jirafa.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ICeK53znag

Going by that BBC presentation the second system around the 27th looks to have a tighter gradient and also comes closer to Ireland ....very interesting

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#1811 22-12-2013 4:34pm
maquiladora

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Major changes on the models...

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#1812 22-12-2013 4:35pm
howlinwolf

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maquiladora wrote: »

Major changes on the models...

Downgrade or upgrade maq ?

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#1813 22-12-2013 4:36pm
Xenji

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maquiladora wrote: »

Major changes on the models...

Good, bad?

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#1814 22-12-2013 4:39pm
cherryghost

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Little less deep but much further south!

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#1815 22-12-2013 4:41pm
YouTookMyName

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Oh Bóllocks

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#1816 22-12-2013 4:41pm
howlinwolf

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cherryghost wrote: »

Little less deep but much further south!

That could be worse overall even though as you said its a downgrade

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#1817 22-12-2013 4:42pm
Kippure

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cherryghost wrote: »

Little less deep but much further south!

944mb. Further south . Looks like its set to rage across the country.

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#1818 22-12-2013 4:42pm
towerhillpaddy

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Hi folks.
Ok allowing for the inherent uncertainty - what potential for flight cancellations are we looking at here?

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#1819 22-12-2013 4:45pm
pad199207

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Is that two lows i see in GFS at 42?

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#1820 22-12-2013 4:45pm
howlinwolf

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Kippure wrote: »

944mb. Further south . Looks like its set to rage across the country.

Oh man this could get messy, its crazy really only 24hrs out and its changin all the time

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#1821 22-12-2013 4:50pm
maquiladora

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Forcasting nightmare with these changes. A 925mb on the last run has now become two 935mb centers, one of them just off the Mayo coast, with stronger winds over Ireland as a result.

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#1822 22-12-2013 4:53pm
JanuarySnowstor

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Much milder run, gets rid of any snow potential xmas eve
Worst of the winds now progged for xmas eve afternoon........the worst time for power cuts etc

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#1823 22-12-2013 4:55pm
cherryghost

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JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Much milder run, gets rid of any snow potential xmas eve
Worst of the winds now progged for xmas eve afternoon........the worst time for power cuts etc

I think it looks like a whiteout for upper areas Xmas eve morning and early afternoon before the mild plume comes in, rain for the rest of the day after that. Then again, such changes on the models with just over 36 hours til the event is crazy. Watching the ECM later with great interest.

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#1824 22-12-2013 4:56pm
Cosmo Kramer

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This is starting to look serious now - more serious in Ireland than the UK at this stage, yet while the UK met office is flagging it loudly in reports met eireann are only talking about a few blustery days. Surely time for a significant upgrade from them - if you were relying on met.ie for your forecasts you wouldn't be expecting any travel disruption at this point.

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#1825 22-12-2013 4:58pm
cherryghost

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The next storm is bombing rapidly too.

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#1826 22-12-2013 5:05pm
JanuarySnowstor

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Well if the xmas eve storm doesn't light your fire the Friday one certainly will
It looks like flattening the country!!

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#1827 22-12-2013 5:07pm
gally74

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There s snow on the ox mountains and down at benbulben. Only 1.5 c here now, I think snow tonight,

It's very unfair from mete irelannd, at least give people time to travel early.

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#1828 22-12-2013 5:11pm
eastmayo

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Met eireann have updated there forecast this eve still no mention of any strong winds,,,

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#1829 22-12-2013 5:11pm
mickger844posts

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Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

This is starting to look serious now - more serious in Ireland than the UK at this stage, yet while the UK meet office is flagging it loudly in reports met eireann are only talking about a few blustery days. Surely time for a significant upgrade from them - if you were relying on met.ie for your forecasts you wouldn't be expecting any travel disruption at this point.

This is their latest update at 16.00. I don't think Wet and Windy covers what is the likely scenario at just 24 hours. :eek:

Tomorrow

Becoming wet and windy everywhere tomorrow morning as rain spreads quickly to all parts of the country. The rain will ease for a time in the afternoon, but further showery weather will follow on by evening. Highest temperatures of 8 to 11 degrees in blustery southweserly winds.

Outlook

The unsettled weather will continue, but winds will ease for a time on Christmas Day and St Stephen's Day.

The wet and windy weather will continue on Monday night. The rain should start to clear away towards the morning and it will be quite cold with lows of 0 to 2 degrees.

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#1830 22-12-2013 5:15pm
whitebriar

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The ecm will I expect dismiss that rogue gfs.

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#1831 22-12-2013 5:16pm
howlinwolf

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maquiladora wrote: »

Forcasting nightmare with these changes. A 925mb on the last run has now become two 935mb centers, one of them just off the Mayo coast, with stronger winds over Ireland as a result.

Does that 2 low setup look plausible, it looks very strange, it also looks very dangerous

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