Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

JanuarySnowstor

Time for Met Eireann to get their act together here
A red alert is needed and should be issued immediately

Harps

A real mess to try and forecast this one, as said though its strange that the met are basically ignoring it in their forecast considering it's one of the busiest traveling days of the year. If be amazed if there were no flight cancellations or diversions and ferry cancellations based on the current outlook.

The storm after Christmas is looking increasingly ominous as well though with so much changing in the immediate term there's not much point looking too closely at it just yet

maquiladora

mickger844posts wrote: »

This is their latest update at 16.00. I don't think Wet and Windy covers what is the likely scenario at just 24 hours. :eek:

Well, seeing the changes that are happening on the models, this is a very complex situation that may be only starting to get nailed down this evening. The 18Z GFS could flip back, or show something less severe - and the GFS is not used by Met Eireann anyway. :pac:

I wouldn't have much confidence in anything beyond "wet and windy" at the moment either!

pad199207

If the charts can give us changes like that so late, god knows what it could show tomorrow! Maybe thats why Met E are holding off, but they should least warn of the potential storm

force eleven

eastmayo wrote: »

Met eireann have updated there forecast this eve still no mention of any strong winds,,,

Strange that. That forecast would not even put the ESB on alert. Met E have access to a lot of data that we mere mortals don't but it still seems they are looking at a completey different scenario than that we see here. I would expect a dramatic upgrade tonight unless the ECM has a joker in the pack.

dopolahpec

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Time for Met Eireann to get their act together here
A red alert is needed and should be issued immediately

Met Eireann wouldn't be going by the GFS. If something similar appears on tonight's ECM I'm sure warnings will be given. It's a fluid situation. I certainly wouldn't think a red warning is warranted as yet.

pad199207

I would say todays ECM 12z will be the deciding point for Met E. And what if that gives a huge downgrade? Met E would have been on the ball...

Redsunset

Met Éireann have warned about storms. I took this shot today at 1pm weather.

howlinwolf

dopolahpec wrote: »

Met Eireann wouldn't be going by the GFS. If something similar appears on tonight's ECM I'm sure warnings will be given. It's a fluid situation. I certainly wouldn't think a red warning is warranted as yet.

As said met have access to a lot of info and data so maybe they see something we don't but if the met in the UK can put up warnings even if they are not 100% sure surely our met can at least say its a possability, the time frame is starting to get really close

Calina

When will I get a picture on what things will be like tomorrow afternoon at 2? I plan to drive Dublin to Cork then but will bring it forward either to tomorrow morning or possibly this evening if things look worse for tomorrow afternoon...

maquiladora

pad199207 wrote: »

I would say todays ECM 12z will be the deciding point for Met E. And what if that gives a huge downgrade? Met E would have been on the ball...

I'd imagine that HIRLAM/HARMONIE would be used for the short term forecasting rather the ECM.

Cosmo Kramer

It just seems a little too simplified from met eireann sometimes, they ignore things like this until they are nailed on certainties but by then it is too late for many to react. They should be able to give the public a bit of credit and put out something like that excellent BBC forecast posted earlier - basically saying that there's something coming, it could be really severe or it may swing north and largely miss the country, but if you are planning on traveling late for Christmas, consider bringing the travel forward if possible to avoid the worst of what comes.

With the exception of Evelyn, sometimes they give off the impression that they think the public are all a bunch of half wits who will go into panic mode at the slightest suggestion of a significant weather event.

maquiladora

Calina wrote: »

When will I get a picture on what things will be like tomorrow afternoon at 2? I plan to drive Dublin to Cork then but will bring it forward either to tomorrow morning or possibly this evening if things look worse for tomorrow afternoon...

Tomorrow morning looks like being wet and windy in the south and east, but then clearer and less windy in the afternoon.

ninebeanrows

GFS looks a bit odd.

Latest UKM would be stormy in places and looks a more plausible solution.

whitebriar

Why are some people here so excited over one gfs run?
Forecasters,professionals, learn early to take such drastic changes in one run with pitchers of SALT.
What they do is blend models to get a more averaged out picture which often works better in such flux.
Blend is your friend folks,no need for panic yet

hotwhiskey

Tweeted By Ian.. Met Office

Ian Fergusson ‏fergieweather 51s
W COUNTRY I'll tweet some forecast detail a bit later this evening regarding the troublesome-looking developments arriving here tomorrow...

ninebeanrows

So if we take the NAE/UKMO version of events we would see peak winds during Tuesday morning.

We would see sustained winds of 45-55kts along western coasts with gusts to 70/75kts

Inland areas of northern half of country mean winds of 30-40kts with gusts to 60/65kts.

maquiladora

12Z NAE :



12Z GFS :

Oneiric 3

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

It just seems a little too simplified from met eireann sometimes, they ignore things like this until they are nailed on certainties but by then it is too late for many to react.

I would guess the reason behind this is that anything they say is latched onto the media straight away and usually blown out of all proportion, which can create a sense of mass concern where none may be actually warranted.

It would be very disappointing if we did not get something out of this unusually deep low, but I guess given the increasing dilutedness of the modern Irish weather, it should come as no surprise.

ninebeanrows

A wide variety of solutions of this low for just @ 48hrs.

Some very severe too, others less so. Not yet time to call this, the evolution of the low development is still very much open for debate.

So i would have an early warning for possible very sever weather but stress the uncertainty.

ninebeanrows

A few very worrying solutions thrown up the 12z ensembles.

Saving grace may be that this storm has completed its development and is filling slowly as it hits the short, the swell on the west coast will be something.

Sierra Oscar

Was driving down on the M7 today from Dublin to Limerick and drove into what I could only describe as blizzard conditions, sleet and snow been driven by the wind. Caused some traffic disruption too, didn't seem like motorists were expecting it.

This weather could cause havoc for those trying to get home for Christmas.

maquiladora

A chance to break the December record minimum pressure for Ireland if the 12Z GFS verified.

YouTookMyName

As it stands, something is going to hit? Just don't know how severe yet? or how north/south?

Weathering

Pinched this off netweather

mayo.mick

maquiladora wrote: »

A chance to break the December record minimum pressure for Ireland if the 12Z GFS verified.

What is the lowest record pressure? I recorded a record low for my weather station last Wednesday evening of 957.9hpa :eek:

Iancar29

An so let the cycle begin....




It honestly could go either way , could be but noting out of the norm or could cause big problems in places... bring on the ECM .

Oscar Bravo

John eagleton on Radio there said .briefly,that it will become stormy for a while tomorrow tonight followed by a couple of cold showery days afterwards.

maquiladora

While the details of what happens Monday night / Tuesday morning have not yet been nailed down, we do know that we will see a period of windy weather for southern and eastern coastal areas early tomorrow morning as a front bringing heavy rain crosses the country. Gusts ~70mph possible.

6am :



8am :



9am :

nacho libre

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

John eagleton on Radio there said .briefly,that it will become stormy for a while tomorrow tonight followed by a couple of cold showery days afterwards.

when you say cold, did he mention the possibility of snow at lower levels on Tuesday?