Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

JanuarySnowstor

Quite comical that sky news is on overdrive with warnings yet nothing on rte.
Extraordinary when you consider Ireland is most at risk.
If this comes about as shown shame on Met Eireann for not giving proper warnings

leahyl

Jeez Maq that looks nasty enough for South and South East coasts tomorrow! :-P

JanuarySnowstor

What the eagle said was stormy tomorrow nightfollowed by a couple of ccold wintery days.
No detail given

ninebeanrows

ECMWF doesn't have a very noteworthy gradient, but missing charts between 24 and 48

Oscar Bravo

No Nacho Libre,it wasnt a great forecast, he spent most of the time on this evening and tomorrow morning then finished by saying "then it turns stormy for a while tomorrow night followed by a couple of cold showery days afterwards" must have a look at the forecast after the 6.1

Conmaicne Mara

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Quite comical that sky news is on overdrive with warnings yet nothing on rte.
Extraordinary when you consider Ireland is most at risk.
If this comes about as shown shame on Met Eireann for not giving proper warnings

I know nothing about reading all these charts, but I do know Sky news aren't to be trusted even if they put it in big headlines that tomorrow is Monday. They're the height of hype & nonsense.

savj2

Meteoalarm doesn't have even a yellow warning for Ireland tomorrow:

JanuarySnowstor

Ecm does indeed question the severity and is not that bad. Better chance of wintry stuff tuesday though

maquiladora

12Z ECM at 24 hours :



12Z GFS at 24 hours :



A big difference. The ECM with an intense, small 952mb low just off the Mayo coast at noon tomorrow which doesn't even exist on the GFS.

Iancar29

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Quite comical that sky news is on overdrive with warnings yet nothing on rte.
Extraordinary when you consider Ireland is most at risk.
If this comes about as shown shame on Met Eireann for not giving proper warnings

SE England has a tighter pressure gradient ...

OldRio

BBC News and Sky News both expecting travel disruption in the UK tomorrow.
Not sure what to make of this but both News Channels gave fairly long segments about the possible weather tomorrow.

Faustino

Will there be a few disappointed people if the system doesn't develop into a dangerous storm?

Can you imagine the carnage if met eireann put out a red alert, people trying to stock up on water and canned goods but nothing but turkey and cranberry sauce on the shelves!

savj2

Faustino wrote: »

Will there be a few disappointed people if the system doesn't develop into a dangerous storm?

Can you imagine the carnage if met eireann put out a red alert, people trying to stock up on water and canned goods but nothing but turkey and cranberry sauce on the shelves!

Usually I'm hoping for a powerful storm but not this Friday. Really worried about that one obviously for selfish reasons.

ninebeanrows

So the ECMWF actually creates two low centres, the one at 24 hours just off the northwest coast, deepens and heads to northwest Scotland, then a small centre with a higher pressure develops south and this heads towards Ireland around 36hrs before rejoining the parent low which is down to 936hPa. The result of this is to lessen the gradient over Ireland.

The ECMWF OP is quite different to the UKM and shows there is still much uncertainty over how this low develops,

munsterlegend

I know rte use the ECM for their forecasts but is there a model which handles these storms or features better? Seems to be huge differences.

BorneTobyWilde

savj2 wrote: »

Usually I'm hoping for a powerful storm but not this Friday. Really worried about that one obviously for selfish reasons.

Got some washing to hang out do we .

savj2

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Got some washing to hang out do we .

Nope have to get a flight to madrid at 16:20 on Friday that gets into Madrid at 20:00 and have a connecting flight that is with a different airline at midnight Saturday morning.

cyclops999

Met eireann sounding a little bit more cautious about upcoming storms

cyclops999

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Cork, Kerry and Limerick

South to southwest winds will reach mean speeds of 65 to 80kmph and will gust 110 to 129kmph

Issued:
Sunday 22 December 2013 18:00

Valid:
Tuesday 24 December 2013 02:00 to Tuesday 24 December 2013 11:00




STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Leinster, Tipperary and Waterford

South to southwest winds will reach mean speeds of 45 to 60kmph and will gust 80 to 109kmph.

Issued:
Sunday 22 December 2013 18:00

Valid:
Tuesday 24 December 2013 02:00 to Tuesday 24 December 2013 11:00




STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Leinster, Tipperary and Waterford

South to southwest winds will reach mean speeds of 45 to 60kmph and will gust 80 to 109kmph.

Issued:
Sunday 22 December 2013 18:00

Valid:
Tuesday 24 December 2013 02:00 to Tuesday 24 December 2013 11:00

munsterlegend

http://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asp

We have a warning now!

_Whimsical_

Well that forecast was quite strange. A little more cautious about tomorrow's weather but very sketchy on details and at the same time telling us that a low is "developing explosively " of the coast.

munsterlegend

_Whimsical_ wrote: »

Well that forecast was quite strange. A little more cautious about tomorrow's weather but very sketchy on details and at the same time telling us that a low is "developing explosively " of the coast.

Just shows how uncertain things are. Probably be tomorrow before there is any degree of certainty as to severity.

munsterlegend

cyclops999 wrote: »

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Cork, Kerry and Limerick

South to southwest winds will reach mean speeds of 65 to 80kmph and will gust 110 to 129kmph

Issued:
Sunday 22 December 2013 18:00

Valid:
Tuesday 24 December 2013 02:00 to Tuesday 24 December 2013 11:00




STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Leinster, Tipperary and Waterford

South to southwest winds will reach mean speeds of 45 to 60kmph and will gust 80 to 109kmph.

Issued:
Sunday 22 December 2013 18:00

Valid:
Tuesday 24 December 2013 02:00 to Tuesday 24 December 2013 11:00




STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Leinster, Tipperary and Waterford

South to southwest winds will reach mean speeds of 45 to 60kmph and will gust 80 to 109kmph.

Issued:
Sunday 22 December 2013 18:00

Valid:
Tuesday 24 December 2013 02:00 to Tuesday 24 December 2013 11:00

Very certain it won't reach 130 anyway! 129 and no more!

bennyx_o

savj2 wrote: »

Nope have to get a flight to madrid at 16:20 on Friday that gets into Madrid at 20:00 and have a connecting flight that is with a different airline at midnight Saturday morning.

I'm on that flight to Madrid on Christmas Eve, hoping it gets out OK! Fly back into Dublin Stephen's day, so hoping it's not too bad then either

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

I know rte use the ECM for their forecasts but is there a model which handles these storms or features better? Seems to be huge differences.

ECM is usually the best model, it has the highest resolution of all the global models which helps in complex setups like this.

But it's best not to focus on one, look at all the possibilities on offer until there is agreement.

As it stands right now, I'd say it's very unlikely we'll see a nationwide storm event Monday night/Tuesday morning. But for western and northwesten area there is a bigger question mark over what will happen because of the difference not only between the different models but between the runs of each model, maybe just typical gales along the coast or maybe damaging winds.

It's too early to look at Friday in any detail yet.

munsterlegend wrote: »

Very certain it won't reach 130 anyway! 129 and no more!

130 km/h is the criteria for a red warning so thats probably cut they put down 129 km/h there.

howlinwolf

Lookin like early tomorrow will be my little storm here in the southeast winds look there strongest then, after that looks nothing more than a windy showery day.... I will probably be it the bed for the worst part in the mornin

Storm 10

Just watching BBC News now and they are warning of significant problems in the UK tomorrow as a major storm moves in from the Atlaantic, they showed the pressure in the storm centre at 930 and said if you can travel tonight or early morning do so as all transport could be hit, they said wind could reach 80 mph, where is our warnings

Cosmo Kramer

munsterlegend wrote: »

Very certain it won't reach 130 anyway! 129 and no more!

Clare will also evidently be an oasis of calm, entirely sheltered from weather related developments in the other 25 counties!

howlinwolf

Storm 10 wrote: »

Just watching BBC News now and the are warning of significant problems in the UK tomorrow as a major storm moves in from the Atlaantic, they showed the pressure in the storm centre at 930 and said if you can travel tonight or early morning do so as all transport could be hit

Strange that, you would imagine the tightest gradient would be somewhere over Ireland and not England ?

munsterlegend

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

Clare will also evidently be an oasis of calm, entirely sheltered from weather related developments in the other 25 counties!

Yeah Clare got jumped over alright..will head to the cliffs of moher so..should be fine!