Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

Oneiric 3

mayo.mick wrote: »

What is the lowest record pressure? I recorded a record low for my weather station last Wednesday evening of 957.9hpa :eek:

That reading seems a little low Mayo Mick? Not sure but it sounds like you may need to adjust the barometer of your station to SLP.

There was a notable low to our north around this time in 1982,


C/O Royal Met Society


although as mentioned I think the lowest Dec record occurred in 1886.

ninebeanrows

Latest EURO4 is an update in intensity for winds up the south and right up the east coast.

Sustained 40-55mph along the coasts with gusts to 70mph possible.

Will be brief along eastern coasts but could bring some minor damage.

cyclops999

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAHyg0d9Jgc

nimron

So should I get the generator out here in kk?

Surinam

Weathercheck wrote: »

Latest EURO4 is an update in intensity for winds up the south and right up the east coast.

Sustained 40-55mph along the coasts with gusts to 70mph possible.

Will be brief along eastern coasts but could bring some minor damage.

If that's for tomorrow why isn't Met Eireann flagging it at all? Their warning is for the system Tuesday morning, not tomorrow.

munsterlegend

Maq you had a chart earlier for latest Nae for strong winds off west coast tomorrow night. When is the next update? Thanks

ninebeanrows

EURO4 also giving some Christmas Eve snow away from the west coast from one of the wrap around occlusions.

Fear_an_tarbh

I can understand Met Eireann's reluctance to call anything definitively today but I think they should surely acknowledge the possibility of such wind speeds for Monday night/Tuesday morning. I know people fully intending to make ferry crossings from islands on the west coast on Tuesday morning - and going by Met Eireann at lunchtime today, they're still planning this!
Obviously the boat won't go if it turns out lcrazy but it would be great if they knew of the possibility so they could make arrangements to travel tomorrow morning.

maquiladora

Latest NWS OPC chart for Tuesday showing the two (three?) lows. Complex setup.

munsterlegend wrote: »

Maq you had a chart earlier for latest Nae for strong winds off west coast tomorrow night. When is the next update? Thanks

9:30-10pm.

RoisinD

munsterlegend wrote: »

Yeah Clare got jumped over alright..will head to the cliffs of mother so..should be fine!

Might go to Black Head myself and watch the storm whiz in on Galway Bay.

Must admit I looked at the list and thought what has happened to us! Just as well MT always remembers us.

NW Clare

Storm 10

BBC weather for the week ahead says tomorrows storm centre could drop to a record 927 with winds of 80 mph and possibly higherl

tylercollins

Combine this wind with snow fall on the west coast and we could possibly be looking at awful driving conditions during rush hour...

thomasm

Sorry if posted already, big thread to search

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2ICeK53znag&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D2ICeK53znag

BBC Weather Bomb forecast

maquiladora

Analysis chart put it at 994mb at 6pm.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Latest NWS OPC chart for Tuesday showing the two (three?) lows. Complex setup.





9:30-10pm.

Hurricane force over ireland is what I see! How does this relate to Gfs or ECM?

Red Nissan

Storm 10 wrote: »

BBC weather for the week ahead says tomorrows storm centre could drop to a record 927 with winds of 80 mph and possibly higherl

"Rarely does an Atlantic storm reach this low, so you see where our concerns lye"

leahyl

Is this for the whole country or are we just talking the North and West? I'm so confused at this stage!

Weathering

Northern Ireland regional weather going for gusts in excess of 80mp/h on xmas eve, Plus Wintry showers

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

Hurricane force over ireland is what I see! How does this relate to Gfs or ECM?

That means that they are forecasting winds associated with that low to be of hurricane force at sea, not over Ireland. It's put together by a forecaster like the Met Office fax charts, and is often close to what the GFS shows, in the same way that the fax charts are often close to what the UKMO model shows.

ninebeanrows

Tomorrow morning could see the highest winds for the east coast with southeasterly winds onto the coast. Expecting 60kt gusts possible. Dun Laoghaire harbour will be one to watch for peak gusts, Dub Air might be too far inland.

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

Is this for the whole country or are we just talking the North and West? I'm so confused at this stage!

Windy for the south/southeast coast tomorrow morning, then after that its a bit up in the air, but western/northwestern areas will be most at risk of any stormy conditions then later tomorrow night and/or Tuesday.

There is a potential storm for Friday that could be more of an event for the south. It's a bit too far away yet though.

Iancar29

leahyl wrote: »

Is this for the whole country or are we just talking the North and West? I'm so confused at this stage!

Ok heres the low down from my point of view..


Tomorrow morning.

- Cold front goes through with Heavy downpours and strong southerly winds 45mph gusting nearly 70mph at times . Munster and South leinster most at risk.

Tomorrow evening / Tuesday morning

- Low starts to rapidly deepen of the West coast , bringing increasing winds by the hour into the night and peaking possibly sometime before Tuesday sunrise , winds from the SW at 55-60mph gusting possibly 80 at coasts. 60more so inland. The whole west coast pretty much most at risk there for stronger gusts. Cold air will filter down during the night too bringing an repeat risk of Freezing rain , sleet and snow. Some accumulations likely too.


Tuesday evening
-Winds dying off to the east ... Santa gets his elfs to prep the Reindeer

savj2

maquiladora wrote: »

Windy for the south/southeast coast tomorrow morning, then after that its a bit up in the air, but western/northwestern areas will be most at risk of any stormy conditions then later tomorrow night and/or Tuesday.

There is a potential storm for Friday that could be more of an event for the south. It's a bit too far away yet though.

I know it's a bit off but UKMO, ECMWF and GFS all seem to be agreeing with the timing and location of the storm on the 27th. I reckon my flight will be cancelled.:(

Scotty15

I don't think your flight will be cancelled planes can take off in the wind with no problem,what Airport are you flying to ?

Pacing Mule

Scotty15 wrote: »

I don't think your flight will be cancelled planes can take off in the wind with no problem,what Airport are you flying to ?

They have to land safely first.

Scotty15

That depends if it's an early morning fligth the Aircraft will be there from the night before. And the winds for the next to days are south/south westerly,for example Dublins runway 16 is in a South/South east direction so they will almost be landing into the wind unless the wind switches to a westerly direction and the cross wind limit exceeds 44 knots then the aircraft can't land.

savj2

Scotty15 wrote: »

That depends if it's an early morning fligth the Aircraft will be there from the night before. And the winds for the next to days are south/south westerly,for example Dublins runway 16 is in a South/South east direction so they will almost be landing into the wind unless the wind switches to a westerly direction and the cross wind limit exceeds 44 knots then the aircraft can't land.

The plane from Madrid arrives into Dublin at about lunch time on the 27th. The flight out is at 16:10.

Scotty15

Well we don't know what direction the low will take yet so we don't know how windy it will be, Dublin's two runways are in facing in good directions when it comes to winds, your flight might be delayed by a bit though.

Harps

IWN's take on the next couple of days..

Forecast for the next 48hrs.

Some very severe weather is due through Monday morning and then into Christmas eve as a potential severe storm moves close to the northwest. It is important to keep up to date with the forecast over the next 24hrs as this storm if the track remains close to the island is likely to bring power outages some structural damage and fallen trees/branches. The entire island will be affected by severe gusts but the northwest and along the western seaboard will experience the strongest winds. Updates through Monday.

For the rest of Sunday evening, continuing very cold with showers, many wintry with falls of sleet and snow in places with an ongoing risk of thunderstorms. A few icy patches on the roads where skies clear inland. Winds will be blustery westerly at first, then becoming light and backing southerly overnight tonight. Showers dying out then more general cloud and rain arriving overnight and into Monday morning. Winds will increase with from a south to southeast direction, gale to severe gales developing along the south coast and moving into southeastern areas during Monday morning. Heavy rain in Munster will spread quickly northeast during the morning. A risk of localised flooding in parts of Munster. Temps of 7 to 9C

After a wet and windy Monday morning, the rest of the day will see the weather quickly deteriorating further as the storm depression moves close to the northwest coast. Showers due for the afternoon with some heavy ones of rain or hail. Winds will veer southwest and increase to severe gale 9 through Monday evening then reach storm force 10 along the western seaboard and perhaps violent storm force 11 in the northwest later through Christmas eve. More heavy rain will sweep the country followed by heavy squally showers with some wintry ones and isolated thunderstorms. Winds will only slowly abate through Christmas eve. Christmas day is looking much quieter with showers and feeling cold with winds from the west to northwest.

branie

At least Clare won't be affected