Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

maquiladora

All national warnings have been taken down from both Met.ie and Meteoalarm.

Deank

maquiladora wrote: »

All national warnings have been taken down from both Met.ie and Meteoalarm.

What does that mean Maq, updating?

ninebeanrows

maquiladora wrote: »

All national warnings have been taken down from both Met.ie and Meteoalarm.

Perhaps looked at latest ECMWF and decided to take them down?

- Although i do think tomorrow morning merits a minor warning for the south and southeast/east.
Large consensus on that now for likelihood of 60kt wind gusts.

Oscar Bravo

22 December 2013 20:51

Today
Cold, with the heavy wintry showers gradually becoming more isolated. Lowest temperatures of -1 to +2 C., with frost and some icy patches. Southeast to southerly winds will strengthen later in the night, bringing a rise in temperatures to many places, but also some heavy into Munster and south Leinster before daybreak. But the frost could linger in northern areas until dawn.


Tomorrow

Monday will be a windy day, with strong and gusty south to southwesterly winds. The heavy rain will become widespread quite quickly in the morning and may be preceded by some sleet on northern hills. Some local spot flooding is possible. More showery weather will follow from the Atlantic during the afternoon and evening. Top temperatures of 8 to 11 C.

Outlook
A 2051 update from Met.ie.....
The unsettled weather will continue, but winds will ease for a time on Christmas Day and St Stephen's Day.

The wet and windy weather will continue on Monday night. The rain should start to clear away towards the morning and it will be quite cold with lows of 0 to 2 degrees.

Christmas Eve will be a very cool day with highs of only 3 to 7 degrees. There will be some wintry showers, and these will mainly affect parts of Munster, Connacht and Ulster. It will be drier and brighter in parts of the east. Another windy day with fresh to strong southwest winds. The showers will continue to affect western and northern areas overnight and it will become cold with lows of -2 to +2 degrees, so some icy patches will develop.

munsterlegend

Deank wrote: »

What does that mean Maq, updating?

The warning they had up was for Tuesday so they have taken that down now and put one up for Monday.

aboyro

Weathercheck wrote: »

Perhaps looked at latest ECMWF and decided to take them down?

- Although i do think tomorrow morning merits a minor warning for the south and southeast/east.
Large consensus on that now for likelihood of 60kt wind gusts.

which really would'nt be unlike what we had friday night, although of all weather conditions wind is my least favorite

Villain

One warning remains

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Wexford, Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Waterford
South to southwest winds, of mean speeds 50 to 70 km/h will gust 85 to 100 km/h at times, in southern and western coastal counties on Monday.

Issued:Sunday 22 December 2013 20:00
Valid:Monday 23 December 2013 06:00 to Monday 23 December 2013 16:00

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

Perhaps looked at latest ECMWF and decided to take them down?

- Although i do think tomorrow morning merits a minor warning for the south and southeast/east.
Large consensus on that now for likelihood of 60kt wind gusts.

Updating them with the latest model yeah. Monday now instead of Tuesday.

Wind Warning for Wexford, Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Waterford
South to southwest winds, of mean speeds 50 to 70 km/h will gust 85 to 100 km/h at times, in southern and western coastal counties on Monday.

Issued:Sunday 22 December 2013 20:00

Valid:Monday 23 December 2013 06:00 to Monday 23 December 2013 16:00

john mayo 10

seems met eireann are more concerned about a storm on friday than tomorrow nights one.very strange forecast after the news

M.T. Cranium

A ship is currently sending very helpful reports from the developing area of strong winds that is moving towards the south coast for late tonight and Monday morning. The ship is heading east and seems to have overtaken the rather slow-moving frontal feature out around 45N 30W, reporting 57 kt winds at 19z then down to 42 kts at 20z. If it keeps reporting, that front should catch up (as it turns into an occlusion, right now it looks more like a warm front) and give us a second wind max value tonight. The ship is heading a bit north of due east probably making for the Channel.

So I think that does tend to raise a red flag about wind speeds possible in the south late tonight, will revisit the situation for a forecast update around midnight (as I am heading out here). Agree with the general drift of the thread on the uncertainty for Tuesday morning. this could still become a severe windstorm for the north but it's by no means certain to exceed nuisance levels yet. And the probabilities for the 27th do not seem to have shifted a lot as that storm continues to take shape over the northeast U.S. today and tonight. Today's highs broke records in NYC (20) and DC (22), in fact some stations in southeast Virginia had their warmest December day (not just the 22nd) in over a century of records. There were hourly readings of 28 C recently around Norfolk and Newport News VA. Yet it's now dropping through the -10s in the upper Midwest. Lots of potential energy with that storm, most of it aloft because of inversions, surface winds outside of a squall line that developed yesterday have been quite unremarkable so far (20-40 mph).

billie1b

savj2 wrote: »

The plane from Madrid arrives into Dublin at about lunch time on the 27th. The flight out is at 16:10.

Who are you flying with?

sunbabe08

Villain wrote: »

One warning remains

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Wexford, Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Waterford
South to southwest winds, of mean speeds 50 to 70 km/h will gust 85 to 100 km/h at times, in southern and western coastal counties on Monday.

Issued:Sunday 22 December 2013 20:00
Valid:Monday 23 December 2013 06:00 to Monday 23 December 2013 16:00

oh look clare is not going to be an oasis of calm after all. going around shopping should be fun tomorrow. good luck everyone

munsterlegend

john mayo 10 wrote: »

seems met eireann are more concerned about a storm on friday than tomorrow nights one.very strange forecast after the news

Bbc forecasters are uncertain how this storm for Tuesday is going to turn out. It may well miss us as MT alluded to. It will be deepen at rapid rates so a lot of uncertainty as to exact track.

ninebeanrows

Well 18z GFS developing more standard low ala UKM.

With gradient tightening to our northwest and low touching 930hPa @ 30hrs

savj2

billie1b wrote: »

Who are you flying with?

Aer Lingus from Dublin - Madrid and Iberia from Madrid to Santiago. That's the main reason I'm worried. Had I bought the connection with the same airline I wouldn't be as nervous.

ninebeanrows

Low centre near 925hPa

Probably some strong squalls of hail/sleet/snow crossing the country with violent storm force 11 on the west coast.

ninebeanrows

GFS 18z is one of the stormiest yet in terms of widespread strong winds.

Wind gusts inland would reach 60/65kts, coastal districts of west > 70kts

branie

I still think it's areas around the coast that will be affected.

billie1b

savj2 wrote: »

Aer Lingus from Dublin - Madrid and Iberia from Madrid to Santiago. That's the main reason I'm worried. Had I bought the connection with the same airline I wouldn't be as nervous.

Shouldn't be too bad, Shamrocks Madrid a/c is based in dublin, the wind direction is looking good for RWY16, it would take more than the wind to stop most operations, id be more worried about snowfall to be honest. Maybe a delay but cant see it being too big

ninebeanrows

Storm wetterzentralised

850hPa winds are extremely high at this point, so if any squalls pushed through gusts could exceed 80kt

savj2

billie1b wrote: »

Shouldn't be too bad, Shamrocks Madrid a/c is based in dublin, the wind direction is looking good for RWY16, it would take more than the wind to stop most operations, id be more worried about snowfall to be honest. Maybe a delay but cant see it being too big

I'd say you're right but here's hoping in any case.

Oneiric 3

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

22 December 2013 20:51

Today
Southeast to southerly winds will strengthen later in the night, bringing a rise in temperatures to many places, but also some heavy into Munster and south Leinster before daybreak.

Not sure what this means exactly... but it sounds good

billie1b

savj2 wrote: »

I'd say you're right but here's hoping in any case.

Best of luck anyhow, hope it all goes well

maquiladora

Some fairly strong winds right across the country on Tuesday morning on the 18Z GFS. A bit more than the usual type of "west coast only" storms. But it's just another version of what might happen.

RobertKK

We can hope for the best, but it could be dangerous and it could end up a sad Christmas for some people, like the previous storm when it took life.

From experience I hate Christmas eve storms...Christmas with no electricity, phone and now internet is like being in the dark ages.

The Christmas Eve storm 1996??? was a storm Met Eireann warned about, then downgraded and it came as bit of a surprise as it was far worse than expected.
Met Eireann are not in a nice position, they have a hard job as one can't be certain about how these will turn out days in advance, changes can happen and have a big difference in the outcome, like we had snow today but Met Eireann hadn't predicted it but that is how weather can behave, not do as predicted despite the best of technology and with all the information available.

All we can hope is everybody is safe and well when it is all over with.

John.Icy

Next few charts on the 18z will be interesting. At +108 if the low starts to pull North we'd be looking at an severe wind event. Far out but concerning.

ninebeanrows

Rinse & repeat for Friday

dopolahpec

Weathercheck wrote: »

Rinse & repeat for Friday

All eyes on Friday. Could be grim indeed.

ninebeanrows

NAE for Tuesday AM, pressure now to 928hPa

Persistent storm force winds hitting west coast.

ninebeanrows

Looks like a pretty sustained battering on the NAE with the low staying near 928hPa and moving slowly northeast.

Winds still extremely strong at midday Christmas Eve.