Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

Oscar Bravo

Its approaching five to midnight so its time to head over to RTE Radio1 for the latest from Met Eireann....

Sierra Oscar

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Its approaching five to midnight so its time to head over to RTE Radio1 for the latest from Met Eireann....

Met Éireann warning of the possibility of damaging winds Monday night / Tuesday morning, asking people to keep an eye on forecasts ...

branie

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Met Éireann warning of the possibility of damaging winds Monday night / Tuesday morning, asking people to keep an eye on forecasts ...

In the northwest

rilz

Well if the power get knocked out up North I bought some charcoal to cook turkey on bbq. A xmas bbq

OldRio

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Met Éireann warning of the possibility of damaging winds Monday night / Tuesday morning, asking people to keep an eye on forecasts ...

I'd rather keep an eye on the information here thank you very much

windy shepard henderson

80mph winds forcasted for my area here in west clare tuesday morning from one website dose this sound accurate?

Oneiric 3

RobertKK wrote: »

The storm for Friday looks scary if it follows the predicted path, it would be a storm that would be talked about for years, looks very destructive.

GFS has sustained storm 10 gales on southern coasts, with Violent storm 11 perilously close. This could be the one to watch

rilz

Just want to say thanks to all the pros on this site like maquiladora, weathercheck and MT etc. Very informative

maquiladora

windy shepard henderson wrote: »

80mph winds forcasted for my area here in west clare tuesday morning from one website dose this sound accurate?

It's possible you could see gusts getting close to that, more likely on the coast or on high ground. Could also be a lot less severe than that. Too early to say for sure.

M.T. Cranium

davidsr20 wrote: »

Should level 2 not be changed in the heading by now

This would confuse readers who might be checking for updates on Monday morning wind potential south coast, that will be level 1/2 borderline, prob'ly best to wait until 0900-1100 tomorrow, see if model consensus from 00z and 06z runs appears ominous for the overnight or Tuesday morning storm then hoist level 3 with a regional explanation of where level 3 conditions might apply (thinking most will be in level 2 and west coast level 3).

That ship I mentioned took a break from hourly reports but seems to be back this hour at around 28W, no severe winds there at the moment (31 kt).

If we do go to level 3 before morning, suggest thread title to read something like Potential Severe Windstorm Tonight and Tuesday (23-24), level 3 applies to western, northern counties (mainly Level 2 south, east) ... might as well try to head off unnecessary questions and alarm (over-concern?) where not required.

Good luck weshterners, you know the drill anyway. But let's keep focus here, south coast is first to take a hit and that's coming along around 0300-0700h. As I indicated, borderline level 1/2 and max gusts 65 kt, minor wind damage potential (IMO). I plan to be around all "night" watching and reporting on all clues that I can glean from ship reports, buoys and satellite imagery before it gets onto radar.

delw

If only Deep Easterly was still with us with a good winter storm approaching

Mech1

Just a reminder for the droves that will be clicking into this thread soon:D

Live Air Traffic Comms from Dublin could be interesting / informing over the next few days.

Watch here : http://www.flightradar24.com/EIN65T

Listen here : http://www.liveatc.net/search/?icao=eidw

Do Both for best.

aboyro

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

This would confuse readers who might be checking for updates on Monday morning wind potential south coast, that will be level 1/2 borderline, prob'ly best to wait until 0900-1100 tomorrow, see if model consensus from 00z and 06z runs appears ominous for the overnight or Tuesday morning storm then hoist level 3 with a regional explanation of where level 3 conditions might apply (thinking most will be in level 2 and west coast level 3).

That ship I mentioned took a break from hourly reports but seems to be back this hour at around 28W, no severe winds there at the moment (31 kt).

If we do go to level 3 before morning, suggest thread title to read something like Potential Severe Windstorm Tonight and Tuesday (23-24), level 3 applies to western, northern counties (mainly Level 2 south, east) ... might as well try to head off unnecessary questions and alarm (over-concern?) where not required.

Good luck weshterners, you know the drill anyway. But let's keep focus here, south coast is first to take a hit and that's coming along around 0300-0700h. As I indicated, borderline level 1/2 and max gusts 65 kt, minor wind damage potential (IMO). I plan to be around all "night" watching and reporting on all clues that I can glean from ship reports, buoys and satellite imagery before it gets onto radar.

I'm on nights tonight so i'm here with you pedro awaiting impending doom!!!!!

windy shepard henderson

maquiladora wrote: »

It's possible you could see gusts getting close to that, more likely on the coast or on high ground. Could also be a lot less severe than that. Too early to say for sure.

yeah i think i will stick to what ye guys think on here , that website looks inaccurate ......there are alot of charlatans out there :eek:

shmaupel

rilz wrote: »

Just want to say thanks to all the pros on this site like maquiladora, weathercheck and MT etc. Very informative

Ditto. It's a lot of work and effort. Much appreciated.

J6P

Where would be the best spot to go and watch the big waves for Fridays storm. Off work so willing to travel to the west or the south coast. Would like to go on a hurricane chase 1 day but this will do for now.

Mech1

J6P wrote: »

Where would be the best spot to go and watch the big waves for Fridays storm. Off work so willing to travel to the west or the south coast. Would like to go on a hurricane chase 1 day but this will do for now.

I hear there's a carpark in Galway that gets you close to the action:D

ninebeanrows

Final post for the evening.

UKM EURO4 quite severe

widespread gales, sustained 70mph touching west coast for a time.

Mech1

Mech1 wrote: »

Just a reminder for the droves that will be clicking into this thread soon:D

Live Air Traffic Comms from Dublin could be interesting / informing over the next few days.

Watch here : http://www.flightradar24.com/EIN65T

Listen here : http://www.liveatc.net/search/?icao=eidw

Do Both for best.

Lets hope my antenna stays firmly attached to my chimney, and my chimney stays firmly attached to my house!

pauldry

No idea how these storms are going to pan out.

I tend to stick to the original scenario of storm force winds tomorrow night in the west and north

Gale to strong gale in the South

Friday looks very bad too so another battering

Power outages are very likely

Roof damage possible in West and North

Falling trees too

Cant really predict wind strength from these as they are too early

Possibly 85knots somewhere? Tuesday or Friday

think 78knots mace head the highest from "the stormwave" so far.

windy shepard henderson

pauldry wrote: »

No idea how these storms are going to pan out.

I tend to stick to the original scenario of storm force winds tomorrow night in the west and north

Gale to strong gale in the South

Friday looks very bad too so another battering

Power outages are very likely

Roof damage possible in West and North

Falling trees too

Cant really predict wind strength from these as they are too early

Possibly 85knots somewhere? Tuesday or Friday

think 78knots mace head the highest from "the stormwave" so far.

this is the type of wether that makes me think what a pain in the hole is to live in the west......it was great for the summer though,

BorneTobyWilde

Ireland is so darn small that I find it funny when people say '' the west ''.
It's kinda like saying my tv is in the west of the room

maquiladora

The strongest winds would of course be in western and northwestern areas, but these are pretty strong sustained winds being shown here for Tuesday across central and eastern parts where sustained winds of 40-50mph are far less common.

This is by no means certain, just what one model is currently showing.

windy shepard henderson

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Ireland is so darn small that I find it funny when people say '' the west ''.
It's kinda like saying my tv is in the west of the room

there is a difference especially in more rual areas , i am basing it against living in dublin for example which is more shelterd ect....

M.T. Cranium

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Ireland is so darn small that I find it funny when people say '' the west ''.
It's kinda like saying my tv is in the west of the room

I think many will be grateful for the distinction come Tuesday morning. Ireland is plenty wide compared to Chile or Israel, where you can see the whole way across the country on a clear day (so I'm told).

It was an interesting exercise that I undertook the other day to find the lowest maximum elevation you would hit going roughly due east from Galway to Dublin. I think I found that it was 45 metres above sea level, so there certainly is a wind tunnel there between hills in Connacht and Laois. It has become apparent to me over the years I've done Irish forecasts that if the wind direction is just about due west, this modified wind tunnel effect will become a factor. This is perhaps why the last storm didn't deliver much east of about Athenry.

Any (improved) thoughts you folks have about this would help me considerably, I am sure.

BorneTobyWilde

windy shepard henderson wrote: »

there is a difference especially in more rual areas , i am basing it against living in dublin for example which is more shelterd ect....

Yea I get that, but whole country is only a few miles wide, so if storm hits the west it's fair to say the east will not be out sun bathing .

Mr November

With latest models, what would you suggest might be the best 'window' to drive Dublin to Limerick (SW) tomorrow? 3 1/2 drive roughly. Looking earlier it seemed looked to me heavy rain Eric would clear east coast around midday and strong winds not hit west til circa 4pm so that looked most sensible trawl window to me?

Harps

UKMO model shows pressure very close to that all time record of 943hPa around me in NW Donegal

Kippure

Anyone know how many low pressure systems have hit us since the start of December?

Dubl07

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Yea I get that, but whole country is only a few miles wide, so if storm hits the west it's fair to say the east will not be out sun bathing .

170 miles is a larger than a few, surely? The weather in Clondalkin, Stillorgan, Portmarnock and Enniskerry is often vastly different and they're only a 'few' miles apart.

Not that I'll be out sunbathing. :pac: