Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

nacho libre

delw wrote: »

If only Deep Easterly was still with us with a good winter storm approaching

His dream may come true through on Friday, if not before

nacho libre

:eek:

nacho libre

assuming the currently projected track of this system is realised, this could be nasty for the southern half of the country on Friday.

aboyro

i'd like to get over this current storm tonight and wait till christmas day to worry about friday

ninebeanrows

0z GFS a touch less severe than the 18z but not by much.

ninebeanrows

NAE is quite severe, it throws a small kink across the country with a tightening of the already tight gradient to send severe winds well inland.

ninebeanrows

UKM Global severe also as expected.

force eleven

Pressure plummeting. 995.8 here Midlands, and falling very rapidly.

aboyro

bit of motion in the ocean now. wind has really picked up and heavy rain. its on!!!!!!!!!

leahyl

Pretty damn stormy in Cork City at the moment!

force eleven

Pressure now 986.7 - nearly 10mb drop in two hours. Wind still a light breeze.

M.T. Cranium

I'm not seeing enough overall change to shift earlier thinking, certainly some aspects see a minor downgrade but I see a three-part threat from this incoming complex storm and each part will be capable of bringing wind damage.

Part 1 arrives fairly soon along the south coast and will perhaps have a bit left for Dublin but won't be as strong for the west or north. This part will combine squally rain and perhaps some thunder with very strong gusts that might reach 65 kt or about 120 km/hr, thinking that Cork (county) and Waterford (county) might be worst affected.

Part 2 should not be overlooked -- the system's cold front will be spiralling out well ahead of the deep low centre and will race across Ireland between 2 p.m. west to 6 p.m. east (approx) and this could form a line squall with local gusts to 70 kts, hail and thunder. Temperatures will drop rapidly from near 11 C to about 4 C and soon afterward there could be mixed wintry showers and accumulating snows on hills. This phase may be the main event for Dublin and some other places away from the west coast and Ulster.

Part 3 has somewhat more uncertainty still attached. When the deep low makes its closest approach which appears to be around 0600h, bands of very strong winds are likely at considerable distance from the centre, because of the extraordinary low pressure and the thin upper atmosphere interacting. However, these bands will likely be separated by zones of somewhat less intense wind. I picture this settling into fairly steady-state wind zones of 100-130 km/hr separated by zones of 70-110 km/hr. However if the bands oscillate then all locations will share in the stronger (and weaker) periods. This phase of the storm could be prolonged and rather damaging for coastal Munster and Connacht but may not be as intense as earlier phases in some inland and east coast locations, depending on how this low actually evolves.

Then we will have the second storm to consider and right now it looks quite intense for the south, possibly as strong as sustained 100 km/hr winds with gusts above 140, and the risk of severe coastal damage. I'm really hoping the models have over-hyped this one because frankly it looks much worse in terms of overall impact, not because it's that much stronger a system, but because of where it hits.

Weathering

Ian Fergusson ‏@fergieweather 13m
"@RyanMaue: T1279 full-res ECMWF drops low pressure to 924 mb: extreme depth only seen in few cyclones in past 34yrs




Interesting read http://www.theweatherspace.com/2013/12/22/strongest-jet-stream-ever-recorded-to-bring-two-super-storms-to-united-kingdom-region-this-week-with-possible-tornadoes-in-ireland/

@MT phase 3 130km/h max end doesn't sound too bad considering it's the coasts that will see the worst of it and it's not that uncommon for Ireland

maquiladora

M6 buoy is 969mb at 6am. Center is pretty close to it now.

Sierra Oscar

Woken by the wind and rain. Its wild here in North Tipperary.

aurora 527

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Woken by the wind and rain. Its wild here in North Tipperary.

Same here in Waterford...wet and wild.. max gust so far 64.4 km/h

Weathering

Northern Ireland
Headline:
Rain during the morning, brightening up in the afternoon. Windy.
Today:
Cloudy with outbreaks of rain during the morning, heavy at times, perhaps some snow over the hills at first, then brightening up with sunny spells a just a few shower this afternoon, these mainly over southern and western parts. Windy. Maximum Temperature 10 °C.

Tonight:
Clear spells and showers, merging into longer spells of rain for a time during the evening, turning wintry over the higher ground. South or southwesterly winds increasing to gale force. Minimum Temperature 1 °C.

Tuesday:
Sunny intervals and wintry showers, heaviest and most frequent in the west, snow to low levels at times. Southwesterly gales, reaching severe gale at times around exposed coasts. Maximum Temperature 6 °C.

maquiladora

Latest shipping forecast for Shannon area :

Wind : Southwest 7 to severe gale 9, veering west severe gale 9 to violent storm 11 perhaps hurricane force 12 later.

Sea State : High or very high, perhaps phenomenal later.

munsterlegend

Has the ECM come more into line with Gfs? Isn't that out now?

Terry Wogans Inner Thigh

Going to head out to buy some masking tape for my letterbox before it gets too bad out there.

maquiladora

Roches point, 60 knot gust.

PS, don't expect to see extreme winds here as I am quite sheltered.

up for anything

Would it be possible to mention when you're posting, if you don't already, whether you're referring to Monday's storm or Friday's storm, please and thank you It's getting so confusing.

nimron

Electricty gone here north Kilkenny

Weathering

Just watched BBC NI regional weather and they're going for gusts in excess of 80mp/h plus heavy and prolonged sleet and snow showers. Imagine being up a hill in that-bliss ha

Merkin

Have family flying out from Dublin at 11am, what's it like there?

Am in Fishguard and there is a violent wind and rain storm here, nice being tucked up in bed for it.

jds0ur

Merkin wrote: »

Have family flying out from Dublin at 11am, what's it like there?

Am in Fishguard and there is a violent wind and rain storm here, nice being tucked up in bed for it.

I'm at the airports, not bad at the moment, will let you know if there is any issues.

Merkin

jds0ur wrote: »

I'm at the airports, not bad at the moment, will let you know if there is any issues.

Thank you!

sunbabe08

damn the wind is blowing hard down here in cork

force eleven

Pressure fall has been very rapid. Now 977.7. Westmeath, so that's 20mb drop in 4hrs. Can almost feel my ears popping.