Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

ninebeanrows

setanta1984 wrote: »

I'm supposed to be flying from Manchester to Cork on those aerarann/Aer Lingus regional propeller planes around 8pm Christmas eve, there's probably no chance of that flight going ahead is there

If plane is in the right place i think you'll be fine. Tight gradient will have pulled to Scotland by then.

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

K4 buoy now down to 956.7 mb

This would lead to believe centre is near 950mb, somewhat deeper than forecast for this time.

Which could mean it could head further northward as a stronger system and takes less of a southern dip on its anticlockwise loop thats being forecast.

DellyBelly

setanta1984 wrote: »

I'm supposed to be flying from Manchester to Cork on those aerarann/Aer Lingus regional propeller planes around 8pm Christmas eve, there's probably no chance of that flight going ahead is there

You'll be lucky if it goes at all. But then again I'd prefer to be safe and miss out on Christmas in Ireland than go up on one of those planes in these conditions...

cherryghost

Weathercheck wrote: »

K4 buoy now down to 956.7 mb

This would lead to believe centre is near 950mb, somewhat deeper than forecast for this time.

Interesting, the forecast around this time has the centre forecast at 956 and somewhat further north (150 miles?) for that reading.

cherryghost

maquiladora wrote: »

Which could mean it could head further northward as a stronger system and takes less of a southern dip on its anticlockwise loop thats being forecast.

Could it not mean the opposite though? It's further south than envisaged.

maquiladora

cherryghost wrote: »

Could it not mean the opposite though? It's further south than envisaged.

Looking at the sat images, it doesn't appear to be any further south than expected, it might be a little more intense though. More intense lows usually turn more left/poleward, but if it's just a few mb that may not make much difference anyway.

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa.html

It will be very impressive when its fully developed!

Merkin

Driving to Weymouth tomorrow which should be fun :eek:

Mr Cumulonimbus

What about this developing secondary feature on the 0Z ECM for midnight tonight. Could it swing down over the country? That would disrupt any windfield as currently forecast wouldn't it?

Deank

From Netweather

pad199207

Recent gust of 61KMH here on phone

ninebeanrows

For what it is worth the slow coming out EURO4 is further south than it's 0z run with a tighter gradient across the country.

December pressure record would go if this occurred,.

Kippure

75 mph, 120 km/p, 65 knots east wales Capel Curig. Its coming up the Irish sea.

nimron

Weathercheck wrote: »

For what it is worth the slow coming out EURO4 is further south than it's 0z run with a tighter gradient across the country.

December pressure record would go if this occurred,.

So does that mean more of the country would be affected?

ninebeanrows

Times to watch for.

West coast things don't really get severe until 9pm onwards.

Peak along western districts from 3-6am.

West coast, up to sustained 65mph. Gusting 90mph

Peak along eastern areas from 6-11am

Eastern areas, up to 45mph sustained, gusting 75mph.

branie

The area I'm in is not in the path of the wind

je551e

Meant to be flying to London from Kerry at 9.30 tomorrow , is it likely it will be cancelled?

Conmaicne Mara

Weathercheck wrote: »

Times to watch for.

West coast things don't really get severe until 9pm onwards.

Peak along western districts from 3-6am.

West coast, up to sustained 65mph. Gusting 90mph

Peak along eastern areas from 6-11am

Eastern areas, up to 45mph sustained, gusting 75mph.

That's a pity, I would have liked to go back to the beach and get some photos. May go this evening and tomorrow morning anyway, on the West Connemara coast here.

Deank

Pressure drop on my PWS, dropping like a stone.

dopolahpec

BBC have a live storm blog running
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25485373

maquiladora

EURO4 is showing sustained winds of 30-35mph pushing well inland early tomorrow morning at the same time that showers would be turning wintry in parts. Could be blizzard conditions at times. Not weather to be driving in at all.

sunbabe08

maquiladora wrote: »

EURO4 is showing sustained winds of 30-35mph pushing well inland early tomorrow morning at the same time that showers would be turning wintry in parts. Could be blizzard conditions at times. Not weather to be driving in at all.

:eek::eek: snow for cork?? are am i seeing things?

eastmayo

Could we see another red alert form met eireann this eve?lookin like it

Kippure

87mph , 140 kp/h, 75 knots. Really picking up. Capel Curig.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/


I,d love to see a weather station on Kippure Mountain Itself.

Storm 10

Weathercheck wrote: »

Times to watch for.

West coast things don't really get severe until 9pm onwards.

Peak along western districts from 3-6am.

West coast, up to sustained 65mph. Gusting 90mph

Peak along eastern areas from 6-11am

Eastern areas, up to 45mph sustained, gusting 75mph.

No way is it going to hit those wind speeds, if that were to happen ME would have put out a red alert

g0g

Kippure wrote: »

87mph , 140 kp/h, 75 knots. Really picking up. Capel Curig.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/


I,d love to see a weather station on Kippure Mountain Itself.

Thanks that's a really interesting little page especially the other tab called Pressure too!

mayo.mick

Pressure drop on my weather station in the last 12 hours, East Mayo.

[IMG][/img]

maquiladora

Storm 10 wrote: »

No way is it going to hit those wind speeds, if that were to happen ME would have put out a red alert

Depends what model you look at. GFS puts max gusts on the exposed west coast of around 120-130km/h. EURO4 would have max gusts closer to 145 km/h.

ninebeanrows

A hard frost Christmas morning with bright skies, could be quite a festive Christmas Day in the end!

nacho libre

maquiladora wrote: »

Depends what model you look at. GFS puts max gusts on the exposed west coast of around 120-130km/h. EURO4 would have max gusts closer to 145 km/h.

perhaps he is still right, though. met eireann have access to more data than we do, surely if they thought there was a possibility of gusts in excess of 130mph, they'd issue a red warning this afternoon.

John.Icy

I think I'm ready to stop following this event for now due to my location in South Kildare, it's not going to be anything too spectacular (very windy nevertheless), unless something big shifts or we get a squall line which drags down some more severe winds, but really now I'm looking to Friday.

Hope damage is limited up North and West, gonna be a windy one!