Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

maquiladora

nacho libre wrote: »

perhaps he is still right, though. met eireann have access to more data than we do, surely if they thought there was a possibility of gusts in excess of 130mph, they'd issue a red warning this afternoon.

Yes, their own model probably isn't showing anything greater than 130 km/h, but if that changes on the 12Z or if the real time data coming out is stronger than what the model is showing then they'll upgrade it.

At the end of the day though, these max gusts will be restricted to very exposed Atlantic coasts. Vast majority of the country wouldn't see anything close to the speeds that make the headlines with the warnings.

Weathering

Met office going for widespread amber wind warning for NI. It has been a while since I've seen that



http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=ni&fcTime=1387843200

nacho libre

maquiladora wrote: »

Yes, their own model probably isn't showing anything greater than 130 km/h, but if that changes on the 12Z or if the real time data coming out is stronger than what the model is showing then they'll upgrade it.

At the end of the day though, these max gusts will be restricted to very exposed Atlantic coasts. Vast majority of the country wouldn't see anything close to the speeds that make the headlines with the warnings.

That makes sense. Though usually you don't see upgrades at this time frame.

well, yes a peak gust of 90 mph(which isn't all that uncommon in a winter storm for Belmullet) will be for coastal regions in the west and north west. that said an isolated gust of 65-70 mph inland could do damage, especially when you factor in the already saturated ground and the cumulative effect of previous windy periods. this storm likely won't be near as bad as 1997/98, but it will be memorable for the reasons you've outlined previously.

Harps

maquiladora wrote: »

Yes, their own model probably isn't showing anything greater than 130 km/h, but if that changes on the 12Z or if the real time data coming out is stronger than what the model is showing then they'll upgrade it.

At the end of the day though, these max gusts will be restricted to very exposed Atlantic coasts. Vast majority of the country wouldn't see anything close to the speeds that make the headlines with the warnings.

I happen to be in one of those very exposed coastal locations on an island off the Donegal coast, getting very windy here already so looking forward to tomorrow, I'll try and give regular updates if I'm not too busy!

Redsunset

Latest thoughts from UKMet. This for Tuesday morning 6am. Also -4 850 air covers the country so yes blizzards in any precipitation.

nacho libre

Redsunset wrote: »

Latest thoughts from UKMet. This for Tuesday morning 6am. Also -4 850 air covers the country so yes blizzards in any precipitation.

at least the weather gods seem to be sparing a thought for santa. it looks like some people here might not be getting much kip tonight if that chart is correct.

JanuarySnowstor

Whilst falling snow is quite possible tonight/morning I cant see much of it lying with soil temperatures well above normal
It will be great to see anyway though

Looking fwd to the 12z runs, the smallest nudge South would bring Cork into the mix for stormy winds.

BorneTobyWilde

If storm is west of Ireland and we are much closer to it then why is it a relatively nice day. While the UK is'' battered with Hurricane Wet Slap'' and Sky news acting like it's the end of life as we know it.

Smidge

I never watch Sky news but just turned it on there and they are going a wee bit mental with the warnings :eek:
Do they know something we dont or is it an entirely different front thats affecting them?

Villain

Smidge wrote: »

I never watch Sky news but just turned it on there and they are going a wee bit mental with the warnings :eek:
Do they know something we dont or is it an entirely different front thats affecting them?

Media like to hype things to get attention

Smidge

Villain wrote: »

Media like to hype things to get attention

Hence the never watching Sky "News"
They def appear to be going slightly overboard with the warnings.

maquiladora

Smidge wrote: »

I never watch Sky news but just turned it on there and they are going a wee bit mental with the warnings :eek:
Do they know something we dont or is it an entirely different front thats affecting them?

The tightest pressure gradient and strongest winds are along the south and southest of England today. There were 70+ mph gusts on the southwest coast earlier and 80+ mph on high ground in Wales earlier.

V_Moth

Malin Head is reporting a pressure of 965hPa as of 14:00. Most other weather stations have pressures in the high 960's and low 970's. Highest values reported from Johnstown Castle and Roches Point which are tied on 977hPa.

Incredible!

Storm 10

Smidge wrote: »

I never watch Sky news but just turned it on there and they are going a wee bit mental with the warnings :eek:
Do they know something we dont or is it an entirely different front thats affecting them?

As far as I know that is a different system going through the UK at the moment. It started in the South West this morning and is currently lashing the Southern parts of the UK.

From the UK Met Office

Met Office said a new wind speed high had been recorded today at Capel Curig in Conwy, North Wales, with gusts blowing at 87mph.

Scotty15

Met Eireann now have a Nationwide Wind warning including snow showers:
Stormy overnight and on Christmas Eve with showers of hail, sleet and snow!

Very strong southwest winds will reach mean speeds of 50 to 80 km/hr with gusts of 100 to 130 km/hr. Winds will be strongest in coastal counties.

Wintry showers of hail, sleet or snow with icy conditions on some roads.

The combination of very strong winds and wintry showers will make for difficult driving conditions

Issued:Monday 23 December 2013 10:00
Valid:Monday 23 December 2013 21:00 to Tuesday 24 December 2013 18:00

coillsaille

Thunder and lightning getting intense here. From sunshine to darkness in last hour.
West Co Galway

adox

Due to drive from Dublin two Galway tomorrow morning. Maybe I should consider going this evening instead?

dopolahpec

Lots of reports of flooding, power outages, fallen trees, structural damage and travel chaos emerging from the UK.

Rikand

just had a lovely day in Athlone, shopping for the last 2 hours in glorious sunshine and calm weather!

Now it's time to get the fire on and batten down the hatches for whats to come tonight

redsteveireland

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

If storm is west of Ireland and we are much closer to it then why is it a relatively nice day. While the UK is'' battered with Hurricane Wet Slap'' and Sky news acting like it's the end of life as we know it.

For starters, where are you? It is a crappy day in Galway. Tonight should be interesting!!!
Some trees came down in the last event, i expect a few more with this one. Rivers are full and some Turloughs also, so anymore rain and some people will be in trouble.

Xenji

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

If storm is west of Ireland and we are much closer to it then why is it a relatively nice day. While the UK is'' battered with Hurricane Wet Slap'' and Sky news acting like it's the end of life as we know it.

We are not meant to see it till about 21.00 in the west.

savj2

This type of cyclone is an extratropical cyclone so unlike a tropical cyclone like a hurricane where the strongest winds are close to the centre of the low, the extratropical cyclone can have its strongest winds hundreds of miles from the centre of the low, so the strong winds over England even though the low is well out to the west is not uncommon.

Sierra Oscar

Rain is really coming down in Limerick at the moment, already spot flooding. The traffic coming out of the city is crazy.

rilz

The BBC NI weather on news at lunchtime was talking more about a chance of snow overnight into tomorrow rather than gales.

Dubl07

957 on our barometer, a little down from this morning. Blue skies and moderate winds.
South Dublin

Cuddled

Dubl07 wrote: »

957 on our barometer, a little down from this morning. Blue skies and moderate winds.
South Dublin

Has it passed ? Did dublin escape it?

force eleven

This looks like one of those nights where the wind will be near storm force near the coast but inland as in the midlands, it will be a light to moderate breeze with any squall confined to showers. Already looking to the next system to be honest.

torres9kop

Cuddled wrote: »

Has it passed ? Did dublin escape it?

Yep. Blue skys in dublin since 11am. Actually quite pleasant outside

microsim

Smidge wrote: »

I never watch Sky news but just turned it on there and they are going a wee bit mental with the warnings :eek:
Do they know something we dont or is it an entirely different front thats affecting them?

Sky news over reporting a news story to get every last inch out of it? No, never seen them do that before.

Hal1

Cuddled wrote: »

Has it passed ? Did dublin escape it?

The centre is always the calmest. Once it moves off you get the outer winds that bring the damaging gusts. The sting jet.