Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

Rock Lesnar

So the west of Ireland is gonna get blasted by winds, and according to Sky News, England is gonna get wiped out by wind and rain, so what are we on the East coast of ireland going to get

maquiladora

force eleven wrote: »

This looks like one of those nights where the wind will be near storm force near the coast but inland as in the midlands, it will be a light to moderate breeze with any squall confined to showers. Already looking to the next system to be honest.

NAE shows sustained winds just below gale force right across the midlands early tomorrow.

Friday's system is already starting to downgrade on todays GFS, I would expect we will end up with something similar to today, or less severe, by the time we get to Friday...

adox

torres9kop wrote: »

Yep. Blue skys in dublin since 11am. Actually quite pleasant outside

Isn't it due to hit Dublin in the early hours of tomorrow morning?

Villain

Tomorrow's system seems a little further South on 12z , Friday's thankfully has moved further North.

Harps

Dubl07 wrote: »

957 on our barometer, a little down from this morning. Blue skies and moderate winds.
South Dublin

Have you got your barometer adjusted to sea level pressure? 957hPa seems far too low for Dublin. 961hPa here on the Donegal coast with a persistent gale now

Red Nissan

Dubl07 wrote: »

957 on our barometer, a little down from this morning. Blue skies and moderate winds.
South Dublin

It should read more like 971hpa. You may need to calibrate.

ArraMusha

adox wrote: »

Due to drive from Dublin two Galway tomorrow morning. Maybe I should consider going this evening instead?

Depends on what time tomorrow...if afternoon you should be grand....or go now.
Models show it getting very windy from 9pm tonight.

P.S. Salthill road (Dr. Colohan rd, out by ocean wave) closed for the next few days...just heard on radio.

ArraMusha

NUIG Weather station has the pressure dropping all day...


http://weather.nuigalway.ie/

Was at 973mb at 11am.

Dubl07

Harps wrote: »

Have you got your barometer adjusted to sea level pressure? 957hPa seems far too low for Dublin. 961hPa here on the Donegal coast with a persistent gale now

My dad adjusted it for me years ago and took our elevation into account. I can't swear to its accuracy but he's pretty technical around that kind of stuff. It's still falling though - just tapped it again and it dropped two more points.This is as low as I've ever seen it.

I don't generally monitor the precise pressure, just the direction of change and the whereabouts on the dial. You guys have piqued my interest in the science behind the weather.

M.T. Cranium

Expect rapid changes in most regions as broken squall line feature forming over western counties, may arrive in Dublin by about 6-7 p.m. (updates to follow on that), some gusty thunderstorms (local gusts to 110 km/hr) with hail are likely in central and eastern counties while west prepares for onslaught of core winds with deepening complex low, the GME and UKMO depictions worry me more than the GFS (no doubt some of its variants will look worse too) or GEM and if the European follows its neighbours, you can expect Met E to hoist the red flag (although it would apply mainly to Connacht, Clare and Donegal).

I could foresee sustained 120 km/hr and gusts to 150 km/hr if the GME is accurate. The current values from my earlier analysis (100-130) would appear to remain valid on weaker GFS and GEM depictions although Malin Head could go 110 to 140.

Somehow I suspect that the Euro models would hold the upper hand on this and while I hope for the best, it would seem to me that a red alert or level 3 here would be justified for at least coastal portions of the region between north Kerry and west Ulster later tonight into Tuesday morning. Peak winds would occur around 0600h.

Will re-assess after European model appears and I have more chance to absorb thoughts of others here. Anyway, watch out for this developing squall line, if setting out on road trips west, you'll probably see it and note it could be hit or miss, possible for cells to go past to north and south as it may remain broken rather than one continuous line.

royalflush2003

torres9kop wrote: »

Yep. Blue skys in dublin since 11am. Actually quite pleasant outside

Really a lot of dark grumpy clouds a hour ago - maybe the clouds have gone but I'd say there be more later -

Harps

Storm in full flow here now, brutal conditions at the moment. I pulled over to get a quick video though it's actually gotten worse since then. Will see if it's worth posting up when I get home

royalflush2003

Harps wrote: »

Storm in full flow here now, brutal conditions at the moment. I pulled over to get a quick video though it's actually gotten worse since then. Will see if it's worth posting up when I get home

We're are u ?

smallwonder

After a relatively dry day, with some blue skies and a bit of a breeze, the winds have now begun to pick up with flashes of lightening and ominous dark skies

maquiladora

Harps wrote: »

Storm in full flow here now, brutal conditions at the moment. I pulled over to get a quick video though it's actually gotten worse since then. Will see if it's worth posting up when I get home

It'll be getting much worse than that there. You might not see peak winds until around 5-8am tomorrow.

Edit : Wait I thought you were on the Donegal coast.

M.T. Cranium

If you run the UK met office visible sat loop (for regions 5-25W) you'll see what I think the models have picked up on, the primary low at present is easy to follow moving northeast past Donegal Bay, a secondary circulation is evident around 53N 17-18W and if that tracks east followed by ENE overnight, it could provide the focus for hurricane force wind gusts both offshore and along part of west coast. The GME model catches this very well, I think. The net effect is to have a continuous deepening of a complex low centre that eventually is dominated by the western component, so in fact this may be very similar to what happened in 1839. Hard to be certain on this but I am really starting to lean towards a more extreme solution.

Weathering

I think Harps is on a island off Donegal

naughto

collected my brother from knock airport around 11 this morning,the wind was so strong that the plane had to circle around untill it camled down,even then it went to land and he had to go up again.

lostdisk

Santy-cyclone?

aonchraic

I'm located in north Clare for this evenings event, about 20 km from the coast. I expect to see very strong winds later judging from comments posted here but can anyone tell me is there also a chance of snowfall?? (as in the possibility of accumulating snow!)

force eleven

Pressure still dropping. 967.8. As always, I look for the first rise after the peak low, that's when the strongest winds start.

torres9kop

Anyone know if there will be damaging gusts on the n11 tonight between foxrock church and the silver tassie pub?

Cuddled

torres9kop wrote: »

Anyone know if there will be damaging gusts on the n11 tonight between foxrock church and the silver tassie pub?

Doubtful. Look like a damp squib tbh

Dubl07

Cuddled wrote: »

Doubtful. Look like a damp squib tbh

Uh-oh. You've just stymied us all.

pad199207

torres9kop wrote: »

Anyone know if there will be damaging gusts on the n11 tonight between foxrock church and the silver tassie pub?

Yep there will be a gust of 106.8kmh at aprrox 10.32pm between the first and second sets of lights

torres9kop

pad199207 wrote: »

Yep there will be a gust of 106.8kmh at aprrox 10.32pm between the first and second sets of lights

Moderator.. Please ban that smart arse

Tom Cruises Left Nut

So back on topic...

The radar is looking a lot more interesting after a day of nothing ness pretty much

Mod note

Try to stay On Topic please guys - people are using this thread to get important forecast/travel updates and cluttering it up with chatter is not helping

Harps

I'm on Arranmore Island off Donegal, will update my location when I get home.

howlinwolf

Startin to get a bit worried about mt update on this secondary low pushing in, its not good when mt starts leaning towards the more extreme setups... For once I hope her wrong but he's usually spot on

pad199207

Liam Neesons Ballbag wrote: »

So back on topic...

The radar is looking a lot more interesting after a day of nothing ness pretty much

Yep MT's squall line starting to form methinks:)