Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

km79

Weathercheck wrote: »

Certainly looks like the low to the south is taking dominance on latest satellite imagery.

What does that mean for us ?

Aestivalis

Can somebody put this in simple terms for somebody who knows nothing about weather really.

Is it better or worse than expected? What kind of weather are we looking at for tonight and tomorrow morning? Is it going north of Ireland, or directly across affecting all counties?

I keep hearing and seeing comments and reports that are throwing me off completely.

Birtles

all stations except 1 are sub 970 now. never seen such a low spread of pressures at all stations. nothing much yet on gusts.
LATEST IRISH WEATHER REPORTS
ON 23-DEC-2013 for 18:00
Location Wind (hPa)
ATHENRY GALWAY(A) 964
BALLYHAISE CAVAN(A) 965
BELMULLET(A) 959
CASEMENT AERODROME 968
CLAREMORRIS(A) 963
CORK AIRPORT 969
DUBLIN AIRPORT 969
DUNSANY MEATH(A) 967
FINNER DONEGAL(A) 962
GURTEEN TIPPERARY(A 966
JOHNSTOWN CASTLE(A) 972
KNOCK AIRPORT(P) 963
MACE HEAD GALWAY(A) 962
MALIN HEAD(A) S 961
MARKREE SLIGO(A)
MOOREPARK CORK(A) 969
MT DILLON ROSCOM(A) 964
MULLINGAR(A) S 966
NEWPORT MAYO(A)
OAK PARK CARLOW(A) e 969
PHOENIX PARK(A) 968
ROCHES POINT(A) 969
SHANNON AIRPORT 966
SHERKIN ISLAND(A) 968
VALENTIA(A) 96

microsim

Aestivalis wrote: »

Can somebody put this in simple terms for somebody who knows nothing about weather really.

Is it better or worse than expected? What kind of weather are we looking at for tonight and tomorrow morning? Is it going north of Ireland, or directly across affecting all counties?

I keep hearing and seeing comments and reports that are throwing me off completely.

Tis going to be fairly bad.

Bigus

Aestivalis wrote: »

Can somebody put this in simple terms for somebody who knows nothing about weather really.

Is it better or worse than expected? What kind of weather are we looking at for tonight and tomorrow morning? Is it going north of Ireland, or directly across affecting all counties?

I keep hearing and seeing comments and reports that are throwing me off completely.

This poster has the most respect around here , look up 1839 storm on google

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=88133313&postcount=2178

maquiladora

Gerry doing a good job on the forecast for us weather nerds (:P) pointing out the secondary depression moving into the west overnight. Also, I see they have the low down to 923mb north of Scotland tomorrow!

Iancar29

Cold front moving in from the west,

squall line setting up by the looks of things.

cml387

Despite the depth of the depression, the winds will be strong but hardly hurricane force.
I have been around a while but I don't remember such a deep depression.
Why would depressions with a higher central pressure create more damaging winds (for which relief much thanks, I have to drive form Mullingar to Clonmel tomorrow)?

The Almighty weather

Weather is terrible in Galway west. Already had a power outage.

Aestivalis

Bigus wrote: »

This poster has the most respect around here , look up 1839 storm on google

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=88133313&postcount=2178

Yeah I saw that. Although, I'm not quite sure of the locations and areas he mentioned.
Sounds to me as if its mostly going to pass north of the country and be a bigger problem for Scotland.
Meanwhile, we will get some strong winds on the west coast similar to a few nights ago. Met Eireann shows some of the midlands not getting much wind at all, maybe 20 knots at most or so.
And munster is likely to get some light sleet and snow.


But some posters make it out to be a full blown hurricane we're getting and its gonna be pretty serious for the entire country.

123 LC

what time roughly will the bad wind and rain begin inland?

Aineoil

What will the weather be like in Lahinch tonight?

SpaceTime

Fairly serious downpour just kicked off in Cork City.
The wind's picked up fairly strongly too.

smallwonder

Pressure here is 958 and falling

mayo.mick

The Almighty weather wrote: »

Weather is terrible in Galway west. Already had a power outage.

There has been a lot of lightning strikes there in the last 2 hours,

http://www.sat24.com/?culture=en&ir=true

maquiladora

Shamelessly stolen from Netweather. This is what the 12Z ECM does with that secondary depression overnight....

Red Nissan

SpaceTime wrote: »

The wind's picked up fairly strongly too.

A pilot complained that he was lifted off the runway after landing, ATC reported a 30knt gust [only].

M.T. Cranium

The ECM didn't really resolve my internal conflict, just argued for a compromise solution. So I'm going to suggest that conditions will be perhaps marginally worse than forecast but we are dealing with very narrow margins of error between damage and just a prolonged nuisance event. The previous event had a max gust of 78 kts at Mace Head, 70 kts at Belmullet and possibly 75 kts in some parts of Donegal (not at met.ie stations). This one may manage to increase those values by 5-10 kts and also will have a longer duration of strong winds.

Will be updating the boards forecast shortly, and going with maximum winds of 110 km/hr sustained, 140 km/hr in gusts. This is not a worst case scenario and not the worst I could imagine happening in this event, but I've got to choose a range that seems most likely to verify and that's it.

Perversely, I would imagine that's right on the boundary of level 2 and level 3 in terms of an alert status here.

Anyway, I think the worst affected areas will be within 20 miles of Galway Bay, around west Mayo, offshore islands and exposed areas around Donegal Bay (exposed to a southwest to west direction, that is). Some parts of Kerry might also feel some of the stronger gusts during the night and it won't be a lot better further east on the south coast until possibly beyond Waterford.

Temperatures will come down steadily but latest guidance suggests a snow line only falling gradually to 200m although non-accumulating snow showers may show up at lower elevations -- don't be surprised if temperatures don't reach predicted minimum values as somewhat milder air will tend to wrap around the lows (somewhat milder than forecast, that is, not milder than now).

I vote that Maq should be in charge of deciding the alert level, I think level 3 may verify in a few places but I wonder if it might seem over-forecast to many who read the thread? So either way is good, the current title seems good also.

Aineoil

Aineoil wrote: »

What will the weather be like in Lahinch tonight?

It's so calm and quiet outside at the moment. Is this the calm before the storm?

kerrywez

Aestivalis wrote: »

Yeah I saw that. Although, I'm not quite sure of the locations and areas he mentioned.
Sounds to me as if its mostly going to pass north of the country and be a bigger problem for Scotland.
Meanwhile, we will get some strong winds on the west coast similar to a few nights ago. Met Eireann shows some of the midlands not getting much wind at all, maybe 20 knots at most or so.
And munster is likely to get some light sleet and snow.


But some posters make it out to be a full blown hurricane we're getting and its gonna be pretty serious for the entire country.

If you have that much faith in Met Eireann what are you doing on here? I used to have great faith in them also, but now they never do a thing till there is some event right on top of us.

maquiladora

I think the alert level in the title should reflect what the Met Eireann alert is. If they change to a red, then it should change to level 3 etc.

Faustino

Wind beginning to pick up in Dublin 4 (Sandymount) at present.. and it's still a few hours before it really starts! Gonna be interesting

Cuddled

Aineoil wrote: »

It's so calm and quiet outside at the moment. Is this the calm before the storm?

I think Clare will miss it tbh

loubian

Faustino wrote: »

Wind beginning to pick up in Dublin 4 (Sandymount) at present.. and it's still a few hours before it really starts! Gonna be interesting

Hopefully north Dublin will see some of it too

Aineoil

Cuddled wrote: »

I think Clare will miss it tbh

Happy Days. Thanks Cuddled

Aestivalis

kerrywez wrote: »

If you have that much faith in Met Eireann what are you doing on here? I used to have great faith in them also, but now they never do a thing till there is some event right on top of us.

I'm just stating what their website said in regards to wind in the midlands.

I know little to nothing about weather, but I hold an interest in it. Its just sometimes I find it hard to understand just what is going to happen in these threads, it gets really technical.

Conmaicne Mara

Going on MT's area we'll be right in the firing line here. Lost power for about ten minutes earlier on. Chimney is revving up to a dull roar at times, not sustained just yet. Couple of decent claps of thunder earlier.

Red Nissan

Red Nissan wrote: »

A pilot complained that he was lifted off the runway after landing, ATC reported a 30knt gust [only].

would you have the link for ATC red Nissan, ? thanks.

acassells80

Winds picking up here in Blackrock

Red Nissan

Jake1 wrote: »

would you have the link for ATC red Nissan, ? thanks.

http://www.liveatc.net/feedindex.php?type=international

But I'm monitoring Cork myself.