Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

Surinam

Wow, I've never seen a more over hyped storm deliver so little. To be fair though it looks like MT etc were just passing on what the computer models were showing - the models got it totally wrong.

Rikand

I found the winds to be very strong in Athlone, much stronger than those of last week. Got feck all sleep with them.

Frigga_92

Very strong wind here again, short hail shower too.

Something else coming down now, bit of a wintery shower, hard to tell with the wind blowing everything around the place.

Storm 10

Been a very stormy night in Galway wind has been gusting 60 mph for most of the night, sea came in again at Salthil, two high sided vehicles blown over near the City, we had lightning but did not hear thunder due the wind noise, still very squally here in heavy down rain.Just passed a shop in the City with the front blown off and on the road, if you were passing by walking you were dead

stooge

Rikand wrote: »

I found the winds to be very strong in Athlone, much stronger than those of last week. Got feck all sleep with them.

Same here just outside athlone. Worse than last week but not as bad as I thought it would be based on some of the comments here. Still Friday to come though.

woody1

looking at different sites to get an idea what the rest of the day will be like, most are showing a pick up in wind speed from 11 to 2 ish, which means theres more to come ? calm here in crossmolina, mayo.. but was rough enough at times overnight,

Weathering

RuthieRose wrote: »

The Galway Advertiser Facebook page is reporting strong winds, trees down and accidents on the motorway so I still wouldn't take this as a non event. I'm in Cavan for the Christmas and we have a sprinkling of snow in the ground but the sky looks full of more (might not fall as that). Stay cautious on the roads folks. Don't become complacent just because it looks ok. That may not be the story. We have enough fatal road collisions for one year. Merry Christmas.

Snowing again in Cavan town.

Total non event for me im Donegal. I'm sure it is a lot worse for those on the coast but 46mp/h is my highest recorded thus far. I expected a lot more. IMO the models got it badly wrong you only have to read weatherchecks post above to see that and that is no ones fault you can only fc what the models show. Yesterday, the met office issued a amber warning for the whole of NI for gusts of up to 80mp/h I can't remember the last time they did that, usually its a blanket yellow with amber reserved for the North coast. However this morning they have revised it down to 50/60mp/h with 70mp/h still possible for the northern coast. So taking all of that in to consideration this was a major let down in terms of what I was expecting but just to be clear I'm not having a go at anyone my beef is with the models ha

Red Nissan

horsefarm wrote: »

I look like an idiot now. Have been warning people to batten down the hatches and avoid unnecessary travel. All for a bit of wind and no snow

I equally have egg on my face this am.

Red Nissan

Surinam wrote: »

Wow, I've never seen a more over hyped storm deliver so little. - the models got it totally wrong.

Or, or, it just might be a little seasonal magic.

aboyro

blowing hard here all night certainly NOT a non-event

Cuddled

John.Icy wrote: »

What part of winds not picking up in the East till later tonight are you not understanding. Don't know how many more time people like Maq have to post it.

Sure it might not be that bad, or get that bad overnight, but people just glancing at these threads seeing posts like you have been putting up for the last while, could just accept that as fact and head out early in the morning thinking it'll be grand and windless without disruption.

It doesn't take a huge wind to be a nuisance for travel. Stop telling people it's over when it's not. I believe Weathercheck posted time of something like 6-11am for peak strength in the East. How strong the peak will be, who knows, but it isn't over.

I see....

Banned

davidsr20

Windy all night in Galway but nothing out of the ordinary. Last Wednesdays wind and rain was a lot lot worse and there wasn't much hype about it at the time.
Thinks are blown out of proportion here a lot I think and then they never seem to come true.
Worst wind and rain Iv seen in years was last Wednesday at 3pm in Galway. Salt hill car parks were flooded out.

ninebeanrows

Still looking rough enough Friday

Shane O' Malley

davidsr20 wrote: »

Windy all night in Galway but nothing out of the ordinary. Last Wednesdays wind and rain was a lot lot worse and there wasn't much hype about it at the time.
Thinks are blown out of proportion here a lot I think and then they never seem to come true.
Worst wind and rain Iv seen in years was last Wednesday at 3pm in Galway. Salt hill car parks were flooded out.

I think the hype was really about the extreme atmospheric low being forecast, the speed at which it fell and the unusual nature of the weather patterns that created the excitement among weather enthusiasts.

The hype was created by people not reading the forum fully and assuming the weather for the UK was the same as ours.

ME and MT called it pretty well.

kippy

Surinam wrote: »

Wow, I've never seen a more over hyped storm deliver so little. To be fair though it looks like MT etc were just passing on what the computer models were showing - the models got it totally wrong.

I still dont get the obsession from some in this forum for cataclysmic events.
If the storm delivered "less" than it was forecast to, all the fecking better.
There are people out there that have lost loved ones forever, suffered serious injury and suffered significant damage to property over the past couple of weeks, including the past 24 hours no doubt.

Also, thanks to those in this forum for answering questions, assisting with predictions and generally being as scientific about it as they can.

dopolahpec

Weathercheck wrote: »

Still looking rough enough Friday

What sort of winds would that produce as modelled?

Bigcheeze

Weathercheck wrote: »

Still looking rough enough Friday

Any estimate on when it will pass on Friday? Due to fly out of DUB on Friday afternoon.

Strangegravy

Red Nissan wrote: »

I equally have egg on my face this am.

horsefarm wrote: »

I look like an idiot now. Have been warning people to batten down the hatches and avoid unnecessary travel. All for a bit of wind and no snow

Ha, ha... I think the wording of my weather warnings to other people has changed after a few years on this forum.

If I mention what looks like a strong wind/rain/snow event etc. to someone now, I always throw in a "but you never know, as the models are very changeable, could turn out to be nothing."

At least I feel like I've warned them just in case, but also covered my a** if nature wants to do it's own thing.

dopolahpec

Bigcheeze wrote: »

Any estimate on when it will pass on Friday? Due to fly out of DUB on Friday afternoon.

Well, that chart above is for 6am Friday, so you could assume a fairly strong gale would still be blowing come Friday afternoon. It's never easy to call the impact on flights, but Dublin wouldn't be affected as badly as say Shannon...where are you going to? There could be impacts at your destination to if it were in the UK for instance. But basically I'd say it is a mugs game to stress about it until you've had the turkey and ham at least.

ninebeanrows

Bigcheeze wrote: »

Any estimate on when it will pass on Friday? Due to fly out of DUB on Friday afternoon.

Model would place 60kt gusts over Dublin Friday morning easing to 50kt by midday.

Think threshold for take off/landing is about 50kt but a lot more complicated than that.

Weathering

Met office have dropped dropped amber warning for NI. Yellow remains in place

Spring Onion

Tame enough night in Galway to be honest. Last week was worse.

whitebriar

I wouldn't trust the modeling of Friday's event as far as I can throw it Untill I get an explanation as to what went wrong last night.
Clearly modeling is not perfect.
Ergo,while the risk of a severe storm Friday remains,it could easily just be a windy day.

As for blown over lorries in wind,that IS bad driving end of.
You slow down and observe while driving a high sided vehicle in strong winds.
It happens often but we don't hear about it unless a sexy storm is in the news.

Trees down? Big swing. No widespread power cuts so not a lot.

My advice,keep reading here but recognise that there's a lot of playing to the gallery/hyperbole here too by virtue of the fact this place is a hub for weather nerds who by their nature love the power of weather events and some tend to pay more attention to the hope that events will be powerful.

In the outside world that's not normal.

SnowDrifts

whitebriar wrote: »

I wouldn't trust the modeling of Friday's event as far as I can throw it Untill I get an explanation as to what went wrong last night.

A lot of systems coming in from the Atlantic have flopped or shifted north this year. Nearly at the stage where an allowance should be made for it when looking at the charts.

ninebeanrows

Few Aer Aranns struggling to land @ Dublin Air with 42knot crosswind

DOCARCH

SnowDrifts wrote: »

A lot of systems coming in from the Atlantic have....shifted north this year.

Not just this year. From years of watching the models, the outcome/reality usually is a shift to the north.

hotwhiskey

One of the worst blizzards I have experienced coming home from Cavan the visibility less than 100m in places. We are experiencing the strongest winds of this storm.

snowstorm2013

A typical windy December night here in north sligo. Alot of hype but I guess its the modelling to blame. I hope people on here have learned that experienced forecasters can get it wrong.

LordNorbury

Incoming flights for Dublin being diverted to Shannon now...

http://www.liveatc.net/flisten.php?mount=eidw3&icao=eidw

John.Icy

Just wondering, and this is for someone with a lot more knowledge than me:

Could the lack of stronger winds be due to how dry it was at the time of peak winds?

Last night around 9-11 when there was passing squally showers the wind was pretty strong, but it never got probably going when it was supposed to, and maybe it was because it was dry and there was no squally situations where 850 winds would drag stronger winds to the surface?