Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

Calina

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Was this storm the ramp of the year

This is not directed at you personally, but a number of people have raised questions about the validity of warnings for this weather.

I don't think it's fair. I think the western half of the country has taken some hammering. I know that there were high winds where I was overnight.

Which would you prefer - a warning which came to "not as bad as we expected" or, as is the case in France, three towns looking for natural disaster status following horrific flooding, monumental traffic disruption as they have in the UK, weather driven?

There is a fascinating book about the history of tornado warning policy in the US in which there was a deliberate policy not to advise people of the likelihood of tornados to "prevent people panicking". Many, many people died as a result.

I don't think this was a non-event. It's absolutely obvious to me that it just didn't affect the country in a uniform manner. The storm is still the subject of news reports in this country.

I think those of us who can say "well it wasn't that bad, I don't know what they were talking about...." are unbelievably lucky.

I'd prefer to be forewarned and lucky rather than complaining that no one warned me in advance.

Weather systems are complex. I think we need to remember that powerful and all as our computers, and as perfect as we can possibly make the models, the simple truth is weather still outsmarts them. And I'd prefer to be preparing for the worst as far as possible than dealing with the aftermath.

Dubl07

This thread prompted me to do the end of my Christmas shopping on Sunday and yesterday instead of my usual (frantic) Christmas Eve run-around. While the weather here today in South Dublin wasn't horrendous it was rather nasty. The wind is still battering as I write.

The sheer satisfaction of being able to concentrate on prepping food and the like instead of slogging around shops was wonderful. Thanks to all the weather-heads.

V_Moth

Looks like Muff took a pounding

Inquitus

I'd be interested to know how the South of England and Normandy region of France took such a battering and despite us being much closer to the center of the storm escaped relatively lightly?

vistafinder

Inquitus wrote: »

I'd be interested to know how the South of England and Normandy region of France took such a battering and despite us being much closer to the center of the storm escaped relatively lightly?

Its the type of system it was cant rember the name for it. Its explained back along somewhere. I cant find it now. This is not much help to you:rolleyes:

nerrad1983

Here is a video the father took in Cavan Town at lunchtime



Still plenty of snow lying on the ground at the minute

John.Icy

Some absolute humdingers in the GFS ensembles for Friday.

Iancar29

nerrad1983 wrote: »

Here is a video the father took in Cavan Town at lunchtime



Still plenty of snow lying on the ground at the minute

Having The Christmas Song playing , then looking at that..... nearly brought a tear to my eye.... , So Christmassy , So jealous ...

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

No real change for Friday morning on the latest GFS.

06Z was 942mb, 12Z is 945mb. 12Z a little further south.

maquiladora

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

180?

Red Nissan

Iancar29 wrote: »

Definitely a level 2 as we had it at .

Whilst I too think the expected storm did not materalise for ME **** I nonetheless recorded my HIGHEST wind gust today for the month so far.

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

180?

Let's hope so! And I'm talking knots, not Kms :pac:

maquiladora

maquiladora wrote: »

180?

You would need an oxygen mask if it got that low. :P

Oneiric 3

Just looking at the 850 temp analysis for 0z today, I am really beginning to wonder if the almost consistantly higher temp anomalies over the Arctic, and lower to our south and west, are helping to weaken Atlantic storm systems in general in recent years? Charts such as this would suggest that sharp thermal gradients, usually associated with a positive NAO, are relatively weaker than normal over the Atlantic in general. Someone mentioned earlier that the current weather is akin to winter's in the 90's. I would agree with this to an extent, but this current spell is still not a patch on them. In the 90's, you almost took it for granted that you would see a couple of big storms at least over the course of the season. These days, it really seems to becoming harder and harder for full on storm systems to affect Ireland.

M.T. Cranium

The next storm has fairly tight model consensus already for the ideal track to produce severe wind gusts all over Ireland. There doesn't appear to be a lot of potential for a northward shift but we keep getting them anyway. Another point to keep in mind, while the core of the strong winds arrive early Friday, the first phase of the storm would be underway by about mid-afternoon Thursday catching some people in their travels, so we should go with Thursday-Friday in any headline changes. This one could in fact justify use of the level 3 warning although I would go with level 2 until late 25th to see if models remain consistent on track. Current model output does indicate potential for 140 km/hr gusts in all exposed locations. Temps will be up as high as 12 C around midnight 26th to 0300h 27th then falling steadily to about 4 or 5, so the last stages of the storm may bring back some snowfall to hills, however this one will probably be more about hail and rain.

Might as well stay with this thread and lock it after this next event has run its course, then entitle it Storm discussion Dec 2013 for the archives. Anyway if you think you missed out on this last one, I'd say nature may restore her balances on Friday, unless we see quite a change in output. BTW, storm is indicated on 18z Canadian analysis as 1008 mb southeast of Nova Scotia, it seems to be reorganizing today after doing a lot of rather nasty things across eastern North America over the past weekend.

Spanish Eyes

While I'm really enjoying this thread, learning from those who know, and tracking the Qs of people like myself, clueless, but interested...

I just don't understand the adrenalin junkies who want devastation and mayhem to result from a storm event.

It does cost lives, and much heartbreak for many who cannot travel, who get killed, or whose homes are flooded, or damaged.

It is a good warning thread though. And that is the good bit.

Anyway, Happy Christmas all. And hope its a calm one.

Super-Rush

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

While I'm really enjoying this thread, learning from those who know, and tracking the Qs of people like myself, clueless, but interested...

I just don't understand the adrenalin junkies who want devastation and mayhem to result from a storm event.

It does cost lives, and much heartbreak for many who cannot travel, who get killed, or whose homes are flooded, or damaged.

It is a good warning thread though. And that is the good bit.

Anyway, Happy Christmas all. And hope its a calm one.

This crap again.

Look nobody wants to see people being hurt or property being destroyed.

I challenge you to show me one post where someone said they hoped buildings were blown over and people were injured or killed.

Spanish Eyes

Super-Rush wrote: »

This crap again.

Look nobody wants to see people being hurt or property being destroyed.

I challenge you to show me one post where someone said they hoped buildings were blown over and people were injured or killed.

Ah here.. It's Christmas Eve, and of all days I just want it all to be OK.

OK?

Lighten up a bit.

Hooter23

Ah here .... Leave it out!

Tactical

I wouldn't necessarily day all of us who want to see some high winds from an event are adrenaline junkies.

Yes, such conditions are very interesting and if a person is lucky enough to be in a location to experience the awesome power of nature then it is an experiece that will stay with you.

If a wind / snow event is on the cards, there is nothing that any of us can do about it other than make appropriate preperations. Then try to enjoy whatever nature throws at us. Enjoying it is better than being depressed over it.

It is always unfortunate if someone gets hurt and damage is caused. However it is worth remembering that apart from preparing for the event, there is nothing any of us can do to prevent the weather event from happening. We analyse the charts, form and discuss our opinions and share our experiences of the event.

Its an interesting and enjoyable roller coaster and we come along for the ride with a smile on our faces.

Spanish Eyes

This the season to be jolly, fal de la la la la la la la l

I think I got the number of la las right there!

I'm a genius!

happy christmas everyone. I do love the threads on weather.

Spanish Eyes

Tactical wrote: »

I wouldn't necessarily day all of us who want to see some high winds from an event are adrenaline junkies.

Yes, such conditions are very interesting and if a person is lucky enough to be in a location to experience the awesome power of nature then it is an experiece that will stay with you.

If a wind / snow event is on the cards, there is nothing that any of us can do about it other than make appropriate preperations. Then try to enjoy whatever nature throws at us. Enjoying it is better than being depressed over it.

It is always unfortunate if someone gets hurt and damage is caused. However it is worth remembering that apart from preparing for the event, there is nothing any of us can do to prevent the weather event from happening. We analyse the charts, form and discuss our opinions and share our experiences of the event.

Its an interesting and enjoyable roller coaster and we come along for the ride with a smile on our faces.

I do enjoy the knowledge and experience of posters who know.

I also said that warnings are good.

So overall it is a great place to be.

maquiladora

At first glance, there seems to be some similarities between what the models are showing for Thursday/Friday and the storm of Jan 12 1974.

However, the winds forecasted on the model don't come remotely close to the gusts recorded in the 74 storm.

Would be interested to hear from Oneiric 3 or others with better storm history knowledge than me.

Harps

Still stormy here in Donegal tonight, I was expecting it to have calmed down by now but its been pretty constant all day, Malin Head gusting to 59kts so I'd estimate similar if not more here

For our next storm, there's very good consensus across the models already, the GFS and ECMWF means are almost identical for track and intensity





No doubt it'll shift a bit north yet but it does look like more of a direct hit than usual

maquiladora

No north shift on the GFS yet anyway. If anything the gradient is tighter for the south on the 18Z. Sherkin Island would be looking at 130 km/h gusts. Could be a significant storm for southwest/southern areas.

RoisinD

Harps wrote: »

Still stormy here in Donegal tonight, I was expecting it to have calmed down by now but its been pretty constant all day, Malin Head gusting to 59kts so I'd estimate similar if not more here

Sounds similar to what we had overnight right up until approx 1.00pm today.
NWClare

RobertKK

maquiladora wrote: »

At first glance, there seems to be some similarities between what the models are showing for Thursday/Friday and the storm of Jan 12 1974.

However, the winds forecasted on the model don't come remotely close to the gusts recorded in the 74 storm.

Would be interested to hear from Oneiric 3 or others with better storm history knowledge than me.

My father still talks about the 1974 storm, he had cattle out in a field and went to move them to somewhere more sheltered, he said you could hear the wind gusts before it arrived and he would have to get down to the ground so he wouldn't be blew off his feet.
He is in his 80s now but says it was the worst storm he experienced.

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

At first glance, there seems to be some similarities between what the models are showing for Thursday/Friday and the storm of Jan 12 1974.

Looks similar alright Maq, though would reckon the pressure gradient at 500 mb would be considerably less tight in Friday's chart between north Atlantic & Europe (at least from 'eyeball' look over) though surface pressure gradient looks fairly equal alright.

The met have a nice, detailed summary of those Jan '74 storms on their site. Love the rough 'n' readiness of its presentation. No frills, just pure, unostentatious analysis complete with scribbles.

http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/Jan1974_Storm.PDF

Gusts > 70 kt seems to have occurred widely over the country. A long lasting storm as well it seems.

Oneiric 3

Low getting into hi res territory now. Gusty on a more widespread scale..hopefully!

aboyro

what's the measurement on that scale???