The Official Off Topic Thread

Francie Barrett

Slattsy wrote: »

All over France at 13/2. Was expecting them to be near favourites at 4 or 5s.

I think its between France and Spain personally.. But Spain really lacking a World class striker.

France for me, fresh batch of players with the talent and the hunger to win a big tournament.

Timberrrrrrrr

ENG-ER-LAND ENG-ER-LAND ENG-ER-LAND

droidman123

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

ENG-ER-LAND ENG-ER-LAND ENG-ER-LAND

Lern to spel probrly....its
ING-ER-LAND!

BumperD

Slattsy wrote: »

All over France at 13/2. Was expecting them to be near favourites at 4 or 5s.

I think its between France and Spain personally.. But Spain really lacking a World class striker.

Spain juiced again win

https://www.independent.ie/sport/soccer/other-soccer/ewan-mackenna-murky-questions-surround-spanish-footballs-golden-era-and-people-might-not-like-the-answers-36943284.html

Edit: I’m not tipping Spain BTW !

akelly02

belgium for me

Bandana boy

No 0-0 in group games is 16-1
Big ask but having a taste

TheMilkyPirate

France won't win anything with Deschamps in charge. Zee Germans to do the back ta back ta for me.

If that fails Brazil to pick up the pieces.

Fanny Wank

Bandana boy wrote: »

No 0-0 in group games is 16-1
Big ask but having a taste

I must try crunch some figures on that but at first glance that looks like one of the worst value bets I've ever seen

4068ac1elhodqr

Bandana boy wrote: »

No 0-0 in group games is 16-1
Big ask but having a taste

Agree with other poster: rotten odds, and a slightly rotten bet.

For 0-0 (90mins) not to appear across 'x48 group games', the odds should be closer to around 34/1.

And they are... (Hills),
or the WhatOddsPaddy...
Sky likely also have something similar on their requestabet thingy.

T- 7days, 20hrs, 40mins 0secs.

Fanny Wank

Bandana boy wrote: »

No 0-0 in group games is 16-1
Big ask but having a taste

Just on this, it probably should be closer to a 4 figure price than double figures

kiers47

Fanny **** wrote: »

Just on this, it probably should be closer to a 4 figure price than double figures

I would say probably closer to what accumulator said in the previous post about 33/1-40/1.

I did a calc just on PP prices of over 0.5 goals and an accum on first round matches pays 1.75/1 so say about 2/1.
You can't combine 2nd and 3rd round results with the first I suppose for obvious reasons. But I'm guessing the odds would be somewhere in the same ball park.

So combining the 3 the odds are 2/1x2/1x2/1 ~26/1
Obviously even rounding up from 1.75/1 to 2/1 is still gonna have a fair bit of juice in it for Paddy. So I think adding 50% would be in order for minimum price to be anyway considered value. 40/1 maybe.

I wouldn't in the slightest be a football punter I can't remember the last time I had a bet on it tbh, but the maths stand. 4 figures would be ridiculous imo.

kiers47

I will add that the above was done on by no means any football stats knowledge and if the bookies are taking a ridiculous cut on that market then the figures are going to be slightly skewed. Even so I think it's safe to say that we can be quite confident the true price is something in the 60/1-33/1 range.

So still quite a bit away from 16/1 but not quite 4 figures.

Fanny Wank

This is simple to work out if one knows the average price of 0-0 for the 48 group games.

e.g. if 0-0 is 10/1 (real price after eliminating bookies margin) then not 0-0 is obviously 1/10

If the price of not 0-0 in each game is 1/10 then the price of no 0-0 in 48 games is (1.1)^48 which is just over 96/1. 10/1 0-0 is way too big looking at goals expectations for the first round matches and the price of no 0-0 match goes up quite quickly as the average price does

If it's 1/9 then no 0-0 is 156/1

At 1/8 it's 284/1

At 1/7 it's 606/1

At 1/6 1,633/1

This assumes approximate independence of results (in favour of the bet) as if games are having goals (which must be the case if the bet is still to be alive) then I'm struggling to see how the probability of "not 0-0" could be decreasing vs your estimate before a ball is kicked

kiers47

I see where your going and yes it's pretty easy to work out. But there are going to be a number of those games where not 0-0 is going to be closer to 1/30 than 1/10.

I think you'd have to admit yourself that your 4 figure statement is pretty inacurate. If it is indeed a treble figure price which I am still inclined to not believe it is. Then it will certainly be closer to double digits that 4 figures.

Either way I think we can agree 16/1 is scandalous.

Fanny Wank

kiers47 wrote: »

Either way I think we can agree 16/1 is scandalous.

Agreed!

munster87

High Taylor is in form at the moment. Two at good enough prices today again.

kiers47

Hugh is some man in fairness. It's virtually impossible to get on at advised price though..

BumperD

He’s knocked in another today

kiers47

Anyone seeing this BetVictor Million pound bet thing.

Some lad landed some ridiculous one today.


https://twitter.com/gamray/status/1007716295478038528?s=19

4068ac1elhodqr

kiers47 wrote: »

Anyone seeing this BetVictor Million pound bet thing.

'Stars are doing '100 Million', but requires correct outcome (WDW) to every WC game.
Am just 2pts off so far, but ranked 78,000th.
Unlikely outcome for anyone, and thus thus realistic alternate nb single prize is just $10k and some naff token.

Powers are doing €/£1m challenge, but requires correct AvB (evens) choice for x20 questions, bit like flipping a coin heads up for 20 sequential flips.

MyStubbleItches

Jayden Powerful Accident wrote: »

'Stars are doing '100 Million', but requires correct outcome (WDW) to every WC game.
Am just 2pts off so far, but ranked 78,000th.
Unlikely outcome for anyone, and thus thus realistic alternate nb single prize is just $10k and some naff token.

Powers are doing €/£1m challenge, but requires correct AvB (evens) choice for x20 questions, bit like flipping a coin heads up for 20 sequential flips.

What?

4068ac1elhodqr

MyStubbleItches wrote: »

What?

You must be living under a rock, they've both spend a fair bit of dolla' advertising these free to enter 'win a million' type things.

https://starschallenge.betstars.uk/#
https://news.paddypower.com/propaganda/2018/06/06/play-beat-the-drop-for-free-and-you-could-win-a-million/

Fanny Wank

Coolmore has bought Annie Power. In foal to Galileo

Juwwi

Dermot Weld has a horse running in Micheal Tabors colours tonight ,,this must be the first horse he has trained for them l wonder .

naughto

robbie1977 wrote: »

Dermot Weld has a horse running in Micheal Tabors colours tonight ,,this must be the first horse he has trained for them l wonder .

What time?

kiers47

naughto wrote: »

What time?

7.05 Bright eyed

kksaints

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/last-call-irish-legend-dessie-scahills-microphone-to-fall-silent-next-month/336785

Interesting move. He had been in decline in the last few years.

PM me nudes

Tremenjous

Bandana boy

Bandana boy wrote: »

No 0-0 in group games is 16-1
Big ask but having a taste

poxy french

kiers47

Bandana boy wrote: »

poxy french

You were pretty unlucky with that exact match. It was strange. I thought with the other game being 2-0 to Peru that Denmark would have a good crack at it but in the end they seemed happy with the draw which is pretty odd considering they had a free shot at trying to top the group.

The Mig

Sh*te World Cup so far

maximo31

Gala N Dandy 6.20 Tipp. From previous info today should be the day!!:)

maximo31

maximo31 wrote: »

Gala N Dandy 6.20 Tipp. From previous info today should be the day!!:)

Hope no one saw this on time!:o

Slattsy

Slattsy wrote: »

All over France at 13/2. Was expecting them to be near favourites at 4 or 5s.

I think its between France and Spain personally.. But Spain really lacking a World class striker.

Its on !!!

robbiezero

Why is Lukaku available to lay at ~30/1 on betfair at the moment? Am I missing something?

robbiezero

robbiezero wrote: »

Why is Lukaku available to lay at ~30/1 on betfair at the moment? Am I missing something?

oops. forgot 3rd place playoff.

ANDREWMUFC

William Haggas told Nick Luck that after he had an odds-on fav beaten last week, he received an e-mail from a punter who told him that he would run over his kids in a car.

Sick individual!

BumperD

Slattsy wrote: »

All over France at 13/2. Was expecting them to be near favourites at 4 or 5s.

I think its between France and Spain personally.. But Spain really lacking a World class striker.

Go collect

Well in Slattsy and Francie!

Slattsy

Yipee

akelly02

Wicklow brave unbelievable price here should be 1/3

All in

akelly02

akelly02 wrote: »

Wicklow brave unbelievable price here should be 1/3

All in

If only it was all that easy

4/5 an absolute gift

naughto

akelly02 wrote: »

Wicklow brave unbelievable price here should be 1/3

All in

Thanks

akelly02

naughto wrote: »

Thanks

Sarcasm I take it

naughto

akelly02 wrote: »

Sarcasm I take it

No not at all seen you post while I had the pp app open and got on only at 1/2 but I’ll take it

akelly02

naughto wrote: »

No not at all seen you post while I had the pp app open and got on only at 1/2 but I’ll take it

1/2 was that in running?

naughto

akelly02 wrote: »

1/2 was that in running?

Ya it was

Fanny Wank

https://twitter.com/gondorffhenry/status/1020376231341166593?s=19

Fanny Wank

https://twitter.com/StevieGGs/status/1020750905275187200?s=19

BumperD

Great mid season flat review today on ATR for anyone wanting to catch up

Monday View program

Link http://www.attheraces.com/home