The Official Off Topic Thread

naughto

De Vegas kid 5pm Brighton

Lady Haywire

Lady Haywire wrote: »

Heurtevent is 8/1 tomorrow in the first at Worcester. Back to a shorter trip & course he likes he should be placed at least.

Also De Vegas Kid- 5.00 Brighton 11/2

Boom with a drift. My favourite type

BumperD

Lady Haywire wrote: »

Heurtevent is 8/1 tomorrow in the first at Worcester. Back to a shorter trip & course he likes he should be placed at least.

Also De Vegas Kid- 5.00 Brighton 11/2

Tidy

Lady Haywire

BumperD wrote: »

Tidy

Indeed! :cool: I don't tip much, only ones I have a good grá on.

naughto

Lady Haywire wrote: »

Heurtevent is 8/1 tomorrow in the first at Worcester. Back to a shorter trip & course he likes he should be placed at least.

Also De Vegas Kid- 5.00 Brighton 11/2

Didn’t realize you had put up de Vegas kid rule 4 killing in that one

Lady Haywire

naughto wrote: »

Didn’t realize you had put up de Vegas kid rule 4 killing in that one

Grand 60ish/1 double for me though

BumperD

Keep spreading the gra!

Lady Haywire

BumperD wrote: »

Keep spreading the gra!

No pressure so!!!

Hopefully some of ye got on, know I'm a unusual poster here so confidence in me wouldn't be up to much.
De Vegas Kid is booked for the 4.30 tomorrow at Brighton again but might chance Hollie Doyles ride 'War of Succession' at 5/1

Also Red Charmer goes great guns for Megan Nicholls. 7.30 Windsor 11/2

Lady Haywire

Lady Haywire wrote: »

No pressure so!!!

Hopefully some of ye got on, know I'm a unusual poster here so confidence in me wouldn't be up to much.
De Vegas Kid is booked for the 4.30 tomorrow at Brighton again but might chance Hollie Doyles ride 'War of Succession' at 5/1

Also Red Charmer goes great guns for Megan Nicholls. 7.30 Windsor 11/2

Serious drifter, which i don't like so c/o for a small loss and went with a small yankee of Jacbequick 6-4 (4.45 Ffos Las)/Live Dangerously 9-1 (3.00 Brighton)/Rollicking 7-2 (5.30 Windsor)/Rey Loopy 6-1 (7.20 Newcastle)

tinpib

Lady Haywire wrote: »

Rey Loopy 6-1 (7.20 Newcastle)

Rey Loopy was a Hugh Taylor pick today and was available at 12/1 before he posted it.

You also picked out Hugh Taylors pick De Disco Kid late on Saturday night for yesterday's racing, so before Hugh posted it.

You seem to have a good eye!

Lady Haywire

tinpib wrote: »

Rey Loopy was a Hugh Taylor pick today and was available at 12/1 before he posted it.

You also picked out Hugh Taylors pick De Disco Kid late on Saturday night for yesterday's racing, so before Hugh posted it.

You seem to have a good eye!

I don't follow any tippers so pure coincidence I'm afraid, went for Rey Loopy as has Newcastle form, a lot of the other runners don't so bit of a black hole. It was either Newmarket Warrior or Rey Loopy for me so probably watch NW romp in :pac:

Lady Haywire

Lady Haywire wrote: »

Serious drifter, which i don't like so c/o for a small loss and went with a small yankee of Jacbequick 6-4 (4.45 Ffos Las)/Live Dangerously 9-1 (3.00 Brighton)/Rollicking 7-2 (5.30 Windsor)/Rey Loopy 6-1 (7.20 Newcastle)

2 wins, a place & nowhere :pac:

Tomorrows S.Yankee-
Princess Power 3.40 Goodwood 7-4
Sam Red 3.55 Stratford 5-1
Generous Chief 4.20 Stratford 8-1
Happy Escape 6.45 Kempton 6-1.
Sky Eagle 7.45 Kempton 5-2

Imhof Tank

Went along on Saturday for the first time at a Leopardstown flat meeting in years, was probably one of the most enjoyable days racing I've ever had, and strangely very little to do with the punting side of things.

Went early to watch the horses in training sale as I'd never been to one before, very interesting to see the auctioneers at work and great tension in the air though I imagine this would be ramped up x 1000 at the big yearling sales. Then on to the pundits panel or whatever it was called featuring Pat Smullen (looking great) Patrick Prendergast, Kevin O'Ryan and a few hacks. That was really well done I thought with visual galloping form clues on the screens as they spoke.

Unbelievable quality horseflesh on show then in the saddling area, which I prefer to the parade ring. Laurens absolutely stunning mare. Roaring Lion was like a bull walking round leaning on his groom the whole time, not a drop of sweat on him though, to my uneducated eye just exactly how you would want a group 1 performer looking on the big day. Prendergast’s two year old on the point of boiling over, and he personally saddling it at 84 years of age not a bother on him.

I have to say I also really enjoyed the reaction of the Laurens connections and also Gosden’s son. They all seemed ecstatic and not afraid to show it, whereas you look at the Coolmore partners huddled together in their conferences at the races. Yes, they are the best but its so obviously business for them, not sport.

You don’t get a proper sense of much of all that watching on TV. Reminded me of the glory days of MV O’Brien and Sangster which got me into racing in the first place 40 years ago actually. Well done Leopardstown!

BumperD

Tiger woods ripping it up right now in the tour players

kiers47

Not sure where or who I was talking to on here about this. But very good article here on Pinnacle on the wisdom of crowds. Worth a read for anyone interested.

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Psychology/wisdom-of-the-crowd-applied-to-betting/E6VJXXYVZQL3CE9U

4068ac1elhodqr

kiers47 wrote: »

Not sure where or who I was talking to on here about this. But very good article here on Pinnacle on the wisdom of crowds. Worth a read for anyone interested.

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Psychology/wisdom-of-the-crowd-applied-to-betting/E6VJXXYVZQL3CE9U

Much of that would be common sense, i.e. Don't back a steady drifter in anything, particularily if drift continues or accelerates closer to event date (as the actual event variables steady), along with volume and/or frequency of bets increase.

Actual true 'wisdom of crowds' (without variables) is much, much harder. A truer test environment would be e.g. the Deal or no Deal gamesshow, or any Lotto draws which are blind random events.

Derren Brown suggested he did this for a lotto bet using 'deep maths' in his TV show, but was widely slated for simple camera trickery, combined with stage illusion.

If you had 100 or so UriGeller types, you may well get better results than Derren could ever hope for, under labratory conditions.

https://www.beatlottery.co.uk/euromillions/predictions said they'd send me their 'WOC EM lotto predition tommorow', but won't go browsing the latest range of yachts in Boat International just yet.

kiers47

It's obviously not an exact science. I was having a discussion on the topic somewhere here previously just can't remember where so said I'd pop it in here.

It is a well put together piece though as is most stuff on Pinnacle in fairness.

4068ac1elhodqr

kiers47 wrote: »

It's obviously not an exact science. I was having a discussion on the topic somewhere here previously just can't remember where so said I'd pop it in here.

It is a well put together piece though as is most stuff on Pinnacle in fairness.

Would argue that article is simply a blog dressed as 'innovative information' (but really common sense), designed to cross-sell into their platfom, because they have the 'smartest players' (implies favourtism from alphabetters).

This happens a lot at Pinnacle because we have the sharpest players – high precision individuals – attracted by the lowest margins.

In terms of the 'future of selection wisdom' there are two main factors:

i) This 'crowd wisdom', but assuming the crowd is wise in the 1st place, and not relying upon trickle down, or subject to negative distortions.

ii) 'Big (very, very big) Data' combined with lightning fast AI processing. Artificial intelligence algorithms are still at an early stage, but as data increases, so will the size and available processing speeds of swarm logic.

One AI startup predicted the Kentuky Derby superfecta a couple of years ago.

The (current) best resolution means pairing deep neural networks with dozens of high-quality and honest human analysts.

At some stage of course, Wave3 AI networks will overtake all available existing human cognation, perhaps even eliminating them from the equation for all tasks of logic.

kiers47

Obviously crowd wisdom in terms of betting implies that the people beating a market into shape are wise as to what the subject is. I figured that was implied.

You will have recreational punters definitely but sharp money will almost always swallow that up.

I have seen everything in the piece before myself. I thought some people here might find it interesting as I enjoyed the read even if I didn't learn much new.

Also I'm not really sure what you are getting at with the lotto analogy seen as that is a completely random event. The probability of predicting the outcome is a fixed number. I don't really know much about the lotto or darren brown so I have no idea what that is about. But anyone believing that he can predict the lotto numbers by asking a bunch of people should probably check themselves in somewhere for phscological evaluation.

4068ac1elhodqr

kiers47 wrote: »

Obviously crowd wisdom in terms of betting implies that the people beating a market into shape are wise as to what the subject is. I figured that was implied.

You will have recreational punters definitely but sharp money will almost always swallow that up.

Yes, it's a fairly natural event. but there is also occasional cases of deliberate distorion to drift prices, with the very last heavy bets coming from the more informed, thereby sharp punters actually taking advantage of dull punters.

kiers47 wrote: »

I have seen everything in the piece before myself. I thought some people here might find it interesting as I enjoyed the read even if I didn't learn much new.

Nothing new, generally best (but not always) to follow the trend (when unsure).

The actual 'new' is AI and prediction bots that swallow huge data sets.

This area will only expand in the future. e.g. If a bot has live data showing Modric in midfield has a pulse of 180, slight hydration, and slower than normal pace, he sure isn't going to suit the 'score next market' within <10mins.

kiers47 wrote: »

Also I'm not really sure what you are getting at with the lotto analogy seen as that is a completely random event. The probability of predicting the outcome is a fixed number. I don't really know much about the lotto or darren brown so I have no idea what that is about. But anyone believing that he can predict the lotto numbers by asking a bunch of people should probably check themselves in somewhere for phscological evaluation.

Exactly 'Wisdom of Crowds' is often suggested for more complex random events, for the FACup - stats usually alone suffice. Lotto e.g. at 100m/1 is an extreme example, and one that the TV chap (everyone has heard of) derrenbrown.co.uk tried to emulate.

Of course back in the lates 70's (and perhaps still today) there was large dark budgets for folks like A.Stubblebine and such like, with their projects to determine, or even influence future events.

Mostly Harmless

Not quite sure what I have just read there...

Anyway... Pinnacle definitely do have some of the sharpest players around and they have ridiculously high limits on the more popular sports markets.

Also agree that they put out some of the most insightful pieces around betting theory etc. It's night and day compared to most of the big firms who look to nurture the mug punter mentality. Is a bit easier when the firm essentially operates as a massive money laundering operation but point stands nevertheless..

marvin80

Looks like it's touch and go with Down Royal next year - very messy situation:

https://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/major-doubts-cast-over-future-of-down-royal-racing-37432665.html

Mostly Harmless

Are there any mods on this forum these days? Remember a few years back you couldn't fart round here (or discuss things in the off topic thread) without getting an infraction. Some change compared to now.

abarkie

That's why there isn't half the activity there used to be 2 years ago.

Everyone moved on due to the responses they get

Mostly Harmless

Does seem ironic given couldn't get anyone to merge two threads yesterday and there are a fair amount of petty arguments/threads being taken off topic without any moderation yet back then every single post was being immediately scrutinized by a team of mods

munster87

Luca Cumani finishing up in December

ANDREWMUFC

Lads any thoughts on the Cox Plate? Will Winx be beaten?

I think Benbatl at 6/1 is a great e/w bet and I hope he can give the mare something to worry about

kiers47

ANDREWMUFC wrote: »

Lads any thoughts on the Cox Plate? Will Winx be beaten?

I think Benbatl at 6/1 is a great e/w bet and I hope he can give the mare something to worry about

It would look an absolute each way bet to nothing. That being said i dont really have a notion of the Aussie racing so i wouldnt be contemplating a bet in it. The mare should really be winning it. Moonee Valley is an awful awful track. A lot can go wrong and at least you know she handles it.

tryfix

Don't think there's any chance that she'll be beaten. She has a lethal turn of foot that will be better suited by the stronger pace in this high class race than it was by all the penalty kicks she's had on the way here. A 7yo wondermare of her class on the flat is quite astonishing.

I like Benbatl and backed him at Royal Ascot when he flopped, his last short head win over Blair House doesn't scream Winx beater but it makes him a decent place prospect.

Fanny Wank

https://twitter.com/agentbloodstock/status/1057975546796298241?s=19

Lady Haywire

https://twitter.com/kevinblake2011/status/1059176633310035968

munster87

Healy Racing has a good side shot of it on website

Lady Haywire

munster87 wrote: »

Healy Racing has a good side shot of it on website

Must take a look, only seen that one. Be sore tomorrow.

STB.

Lady Haywire wrote: »

Must take a look, only seen that one. Be sore tomorrow.

I was curious myself. Ripped off the top rung.


Cash's site.

https://www.healyracing.ie/#/gallery/4-11-18-cork/374robin-de-carlow-02/

Lady Haywire

STB. wrote: »

I was curious myself. Ripped off the top rung.


Cash's site.

https://www.healyracing.ie/#/gallery/4-11-18-cork/374robin-de-carlow-02/

Side on doesn't have the same WTF face on RdC though

Anyway on horses, Lamhorlamh for me in the last at Plumpton tomorrow, caught my eye last time before it took a side exit, other horses have nicer form than him but not proven at the distance. Might be still some 6s around.
Single on the above but also Marettimo & Andapa- first two races at Plumpton, Georgina Joy in first at Hereford & Salute the Soldier at Kempton for a Canadian.

BumperD

Lexington Sales here for anyone interested

Some fancy prices paid for some mares tonight

http://www.fasigtipton.com/2018/The-November-Sale#/

BumperD

Lady Aurelia just went for 7.5 million lot 200

kiers47

BumperD wrote: »

Lady Aurelia just went for 7.5 million lot 200

Mad stuff.
She was bought back by her breeder(Stonestreet Thouroughbred) who had a piece of her already from back when she was sold as a yearling.
They effectively just bought out Peter Leidel.
You'd imagine they will send her to Curlin as he is their star ticket at Stonestreet although that wouldnt really set the mind racing. Be nicer to see her get sent to a speedier Turf type.

tryfix

kiers47 wrote: »

Mad stuff.
She was bought back by her breeder(Stonestreet Thouroughbred) who had a piece of her already from back when she was sold as a yearling.
They effectively just bought out Peter Leidel.
You'd imagine they will send her to Curlin as he is their star ticket at Stonestreet although that wouldnt really set the mind racing. Be nicer to see her get sent to a speedier Turf type.

The owner expressing an admiration for crossing US speed with European staying power mentioned a possibility that she'll be sent to Europe where you'd imagine a date with Galileo or Dubawi ( maybe even Frankel for the hype ) would be the logical outcome. Seeing Galileo's stellar record when mated with speedy mares it would most likely be Galileo that she'd visit.

kiers47

tryfix wrote: »

The owner expressing an admiration for crossing US speed with European staying power mentioned a possibility that she'll be sent to Europe where you'd imagine a date with Galileo or Dubawi ( maybe even Frankel for the hype ) would be the logical outcome. Seeing Galileo's stellar record when mated with speedy mares it would most likely be Galileo that she'd visit.

Yes that would certainly be interesting. If they did send her to Galileo you'd nearly get Coolmore to send them a blank cheque for that foal considering their interest in the Scat Daddy line. Although in saying that it wouldn't be ideal for the sheer amount of Galileo/Scat Daddy stallions and mares they will have over the next number of years. All speculation and thinking out loud of course.

BumperD

https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/racing/jockey-chris-timmons-handed-four-year-ban-over-positive-cocaine-test-1.3687176

And another

ANDREWMUFC

Jaysus what is it with jockeys and cocaine lol

irishgoat

They're just human like the rest of us. Some of them are still young and earning decent money and don't realize how detrimental it is to their career until it's too late.

Some jockey's are full of themselves and too cocky and some are really down to earth and really decent.

I was talking to a work rider on Saturday night and commended him on telling his trainer when horses are ready to win and he blew it off and told me, look when they're right you can feel it right away like riding a harley davidson He's very decent.

A bit of charlie is ok if it cant' ruin your career but these guys are told in no uncertain terms. I've no sympathy and that timmons fella, rather than doing coke should have been working more long hours. He deserves the 4 years.

akelly02

ANDREWMUFC wrote: »

Jaysus what is it with jockeys and cocaine lol

keeps the hunger at bay and gives them a high aswell, so id imagine they are thinking its a win , win

Mostly Harmless

Given how quickly cocaine passes through the system and the relative frequency of these positive tests, logic would dictate that there are quite a few of them at it. Bit daft hitting the lad with 4 years, Fallon got 18 months, Dettori got 6 months and was also busted with a wrap in his pocket BITD and openly admitted using it in past.

famagusta

He's not banned for four years, read the article, he'll be back in June!

Mostly Harmless

famagusta wrote: »

He's not banned for four years, read the article, he'll be back in June!

I did read it.


"Jockey Chris Timmons handed four-year ban over positive cocaine test", ban is four years, fact that he can appeal after 12 months does not change this?

idnkph

famagusta wrote:

He's not banned for four years, read the article, he'll be back in June!

Please explain how he will be back in June when he can only appeal it then? He would be lucky to get it reduced to 2.

idnkph

famagusta wrote:

He's not banned for four years, read the article, he'll be back in June!

Please explain how he will be back in June when he can only appeal it then? He would be lucky to get it reduced to 2.

Seanachai