Champions league qualification.

Morzadec

At the end of January we'll know a lot more, with the window closed and with 3 big games having been played.

Gun to the head now and I back Liverpool do it it (along with the expected top 3 of course).

United are quite far behind and basically need title winning form at this stage to get to around 76 points, (which they will probably need unless there's a big drop off in form from the teams around them). I have them needing roughly 2.3 ppg from here on in to compensate for their shortfall so far and make 76 points.

2.3ppg over the course of a season would be 87 points (i.e. title-winning form).

So if Liverpool maintain the level they have had so far then United would require a monumental turnaround in form to pip them. Of course it's possible, especially if RVP comes back and starts firing, but it's a big, big ask.

So as far as the Liverpool vs United debate goes (which from the results of the poll show, is what many think it will boil down to), it's very much advantage Liverpool, and it will take either a momumental effort from United or a tailing off in form from Liverpool (combined with an upturning in form from United) for United to overtake Liverpool.

Then, of course, there are Spurs and Everton, who of course shouldn't be ruled out.

Spurs: I have to imagine that officials will stop gifting them points sooner or later, and that the variance that comes with winning games by the skin of their teeth will eventually turn on them and lead to dropped points.

Could also hope that Sherwood's arguable naivete as a manager won't help.

Everton: Have done really well and played really well. I keep thinking that their inferior resources as a club (when it comes to wages and transfer budget) will eventually tell, but they deserve to be where they are and Martinez has done fantastically. If they can get something in the Merseyside derby they will still be right in the hunt, so it's difficult to rule them out, but ultimately I feel they will fall just short.

So taking all this into account, and the added advantages of no European football and a superior goal difference, Liverpool have to be seen as strong favourites right now to take 4th spot.

LuckyLloyd

Liverpool hold a five point gap over Utd while still having to travel to Old Trafford. That's despite Liverpool's form and performances being widely acclaimed this year while Utd's have been sharply criticised.

I do feel Everton and Spurs will fade away to some extent, but Utd have the players at the end of the day which when you strip it all down always provides a chance.

MD1990

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Liverpool hold a five point gap over Utd while still having to travel to Old Trafford. That's despite Liverpool's form and performances being widely acclaimed this year while Utd's have been sharply criticised.

I do feel Everton and Spurs will fade away to some extent, but Utd have the players at the end of the day which when you strip it all down always provides a chance.

could easily be 7 or 8 after this weekend though
hopefully Man U go far in the CL

Morzadec

Another way of looking at it would be that for United to catch Liverpool they would need to increase to 2.1 ppg, and for Liverpool to drop to 1.8ppg.

Or, in other words:

United need the form of an 80 point season, with Liverpool having the form of a 68 point season at the same time.

Not something that can't be envisioned, but it's still a big ask for United to both turn around their form to that extent and then also hope that Liverpool drop off.

billymitchell

Morzadec wrote: »

Another way of looking at it would be that for United to catch Liverpool they would need to increase to 2.1 ppg, and for Liverpool to drop to 1.8ppg.

Or, in other words:

United need the form of an 80 point season, with Liverpool having the form of a 68 point season at the same time.

Not something that can't be envisioned, but it's still a big ask for United to both turn around their form to that extent and then also hope that Liverpool drop off.

United are only a few points behind united without RVP and rooney for large swathes of games. If Liverpool lost Suarez and Sturridge for the same amount of games, it would be game over for Liverpool

Utd are 5 pionts behind Liverpool, that's a two game swing.

Absolutely nothing when you consider they have to play each other at Old Trafford, not to mention all the other games.

Morzadec

billymitchell wrote: »

United are only a few points behind united without RVP and rooney for large swathes of games. If Liverpool lost Suarez and Sturridge for the same amount of games, it would be game over for Liverpool

rarnes1 wrote: »

Utd are 5 pionts behind Liverpool, that's a two game swing.

Absolutely nothing when you consider they have to play each other at Old Trafford, not to mention all the other games.

Both true, but it doesn't change the facts I put up (the numbers don't lie).

- If Liverpool maintain their current form, United will need title-winning form to match it (quite unlikely imo).

- If Liverpool drop off to 68-point season form (possible), then United can do it with 80-point season form (also possible).

I'm not ruling United out by any means, all I'm saying that it's very much advantage Liverpool, and if they maintain the same level of results and points-return, I would be very surprised if United (or any team for that matter) managed to put together the form required to top that.

(Big IF of course)

noodler

^^

I think you are complicating things Morzadec!


5 points is nothing.

K-9

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Liverpool hold a five point gap over Utd while still having to travel to Old Trafford. That's despite Liverpool's form and performances being widely acclaimed this year while Utd's have been sharply criticised.

I do feel Everton and Spurs will fade away to some extent, but Utd have the players at the end of the day which when you strip it all down always provides a chance.

That's the only away game Liverpool have to the top 7 though which is a big help, plus Suarez and Sturridge could conceivably have 50 goals between them this season. Hard to imagine that and a team not getting top 4.

ronjo

billymitchell wrote: »

United are only a few points behind united without RVP and rooney for large swathes of games. If Liverpool lost Suarez and Sturridge for the same amount of games, it would be game over for Liverpool

What are you talking about man??

RVP/Rooney have missed 14 games this season
Suarez/Sturridge have missed 13 games

Iang87

5 points isn't very much could be 8 after this weekend if matches were to go to a form. That could be a lot to turn around given uniteds questionable home form.

I still wouldn't write them off one bit even if it did go to 8 but it'd be a huge task given the level they're playing at this year.

ronjo

74 people voted and not one thinks Spurs will be in top 4.

billymitchell

ronjo wrote: »

What are you talking about man??

RVP/Rooney have missed 14 games this season
Suarez/Sturridge have missed 13 games

I probably should have checked my facts. My (new)point is if we lost both Suarez AND Sturridge for a bunch of games between here and the end of the season, it would be curtains for Liverpool

EuropeanSon

noodler wrote: »

^^

I think you are complicating things Morzadec!


5 points is nothing.

I dislike this position intensely.

Nothing is nothing. 5 points is most definitely something. It's clearly much better for Liverpool than 0 points, or 2 points.

Consider: As things stand, Liverpool can afford to lose to Utd and then match them point for point in all other results combined (they can even afford to draw one extra, with their superior GD). Were the two teams level, or Liverpool were just 2 points ahead, Liverpool would need to get something at Old Trafford and match them too in all other games. Liverpool's chances of winning at Old Trafford are certainly below 50% (in that they'll be longer than evens). Thus that difference is definitely significant.

Not saying Utd won't catch them (in fact, I voted that they would). I just think saying 5 points is insignificant is a silly point of view.

Knex*

ronjo wrote: »

74 people voted and not one thinks Spurs will be in top 4.

He may prove me wrong, and I know Spurs have won games since he took over, but I've seen nothing to suggest that Sherwood is an improvement to AVB.

Seems a tactically naive to me, and ultimately I think it will be their downfall.

Their squad is too good to be ruled out completely, however.

Turtwig

1 Chelsea/City/Arsenal
4 Liverpool/Man United/Everton/Tottenham.

ronjo

Jernal wrote: »

1 Chelsea/City/Arsenal
4 Liverpool/Man United/Everton/Tottenham.

Going out on a big limb there

kryogen

rarnes1 wrote: »

Utd are 5 pionts behind Liverpool, that's a two game swing.

Absolutely nothing when you consider they have to play each other at Old Trafford, not to mention all the other games.

This is quite a good example of why I cant understand how so many people, United fans included, are writing them off this season.

the incredible pudding

I don't think anyone is writing them off. It's just not that ridiculous to bet on pool to finish above them at this stage in time.
For what it's worth: i'm a pool fan who voted for United to come 4th.

Turtwig

kryogen wrote: »

This is quite a good example of why I cant understand how so many people, United fans included, are writing them off this season.

The teams form is inconsistent and poor.

kryogen

the incredible pudding wrote: »

I don't think anyone is writing them off. It's just not that ridiculous to bet on pool to finish above them at this stage in time.
For what it's worth: i'm a pool fan who voted for United to come 4th.

There are plenty of people writing them off, have a nosy around the United thread for some examples if you wish, it just seems a bit nuts to me, I am not saying it is ridiculous to think Liverpool have a good chance of finishing ahead of them at this stage

the incredible pudding

kryogen wrote: »

There are plenty of people writing them off, have a nosy around the United thread for some examples if you wish, it just seems a bit nuts to me, I am not saying it is ridiculous to think Liverpool have a good chance of finishing ahead of them at this stage

I try to pay no mind to people like that who tend to be a fickly, (not to mention noisy) minority.

Lukker-

The top 3 will almost certainly be Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City in no particular order.

That means there's 4 teams competing for 4th place. Liverpool, Everton and Spurs are all performing well now. I think Spurs actually have the strongest squad to make a sustained push. Suarez is carrying Liverpool so if he gets injured or suspended it's hard to see them doing as well. Everton seem a really solid unit, but they are due a rough spell at some point. It's hard to write off United, especially considering they have Rooney and RVP coming back. So hard to predict. I love it.

kryogen

I predict, wistfully an Arsenal collapse and an unbelievable run from United from February on that will leave the final table looking like

1. City 88pts
2. Chelsea 81pts
3. United 77pts
4. Arsenal 75pts
5. Liverpool 72pts
6. Spurs 70pts
7. Everton 69pts
8. Newcastle 64pts

Hows that for semi random points totals

In all honesty, as things stand I would be happy enough with 4th place considering the strong form shown by all the clubs in the top 7

kryogen

kryogen wrote: »

I predict, wistfully an Arsenal collapse and an unbelievable run from United from February on that will leave the final table looking like

1. City 88pts
2. Chelsea 81pts
3. United 77pts
4. Arsenal 75pts
5. Liverpool 72pts
6. Spurs 70pts
7. Everton 69pts
8. Newcastle 64pts

Hows that for semi random points totals

In all honesty, as things stand I would be happy enough with 4th place considering the strong form shown by all the clubs in the top 7

That would be quite a turnaround for Utd to hit the ppg required for that total.

4th very rarely has 75 points. Last year it was 73 points and I think that may have been the highest ever. However it is more competitive this year, but I'm still expecting a few teams to drop away. No way they can all keep up the winning streaks

Morzadec

kryogen wrote: »

I predict, wistfully an Arsenal collapse and an unbelievable run from United from February on that will leave the final table looking like

1. City 88pts
2. Chelsea 81pts
3. United 77pts
4. Arsenal 75pts
5. Liverpool 72pts
6. Spurs 70pts
7. Everton 69pts
8. Newcastle 64pts

Hows that for semi random points totals

In all honesty, as things stand I would be happy enough with 4th place considering the strong form shown by all the clubs in the top 7

That's quite a prediction.

You are predicting that United will get 2.35 ppg (an 89/90 point season form).

Obviously this is possible, but imo a huge long shot. What have United shown under Moyes to even remotely suggest that this type of form is probable?

77 points for United at this stage is dreamland stuff.

If United get top 4 (and I'm in no way writing them off) it will almost certainly involve a tail off in form Liverpool (and to a slightly lesser extent Spurs and Everton), as well as a significant improvement in their own form.

Also Arsenal on 75 points is bizarre imo - you are predicting their form will tail off to 1.59ppg (or a 60 point season). Arsenal are far too good, a quality midfield, a superb defensive partnership, consistent beating of the weaker teams.

How you think their form will tail off to that of an 8th place team is beyond me.

mike65

Some people don't get stats esp trending ones!

Also if Luis gets injured Sturridge takes over, its not like there is no option B

irishfeen

Morzadec wrote: »

That's quite a prediction.

You are predicting that United will get 2.35 ppg (an 89/90 point season form).

Obviously this is possible, but imo a huge long shot. What have United shown under Moyes to even remotely suggest that this type of form is probable?

77 points for United at this stage is dreamland stuff.

If United get top 4 (and I'm in no way writing them off) it will almost certainly involve a tail off in form Liverpool (and to a slightly lesser extent Spurs and Everton), as well as a significant improvement in their own form.

Also Arsenal on 75 points is bizarre imo - you are predicting their form will tail off to 1.59ppg (or a 60 point season). Arsenal are far too good, a quality midfield, a superb defensive partnership, consistent beating of the weaker teams.

How you think their form will tail off to that of an 8th place team is beyond me.

While i'm not saying its certain that United will dramatically improve but the last 8 games are very very winnable for united - win them along with a few draws and losses to the big boys and I think United could secure 4th. It really can't get any worse for United - any additions would be welcomed but with Rooney and RVP fit they are a different proposition.

mike65

irishfeen wrote: »

While i'm not saying its certain that United will dramatically improve but the last 8 games are very very winnable for united - win them along with a few draws and losses to the big boys and I think United could secure 4th. It really can't get any worse for United - any additions would be welcomed but with Rooney and RVP fit they are a different proposition.

24 points plus what, 10 from the rest? okay that's 34 points (71 total) yet Utd have to play Chelsea/Arsenal/City/Liverpool/Everton (plus Stoke and Newcastle away which could be tricky enough), can't see it really.

764dak

Wenger and Redknapp: "The Champions League is overrated"

irishfeen

mike65 wrote: »

24 points plus what, 10 from the rest? okay that's 34 points (71 total) yet Utd have to play Chelsea/Arsenal/City/Liverpool/Everton (plus Stoke and Newcastle away which could be tricky enough), can't see it really.

If United get things going any bit at all and get Rooney and RVP back then I think the following results are very possible - (I know there will always be surprise draws/even losses but this is taking into account loosing to Chelsea, Arsenal and Man City which United could get some points from)

Chelsea (A) - L
Cardiff (H) - W
Stoke (A) - W
Fulham (H) - W
Arsenal (A) - L
Crystal Palace (A) - W
Man City (H) - L
West Brom (A) - W
Liverpool (H) - D
West Ham (A) - W
Aston Villa (H) - W
Newcastle (A) - W
Hull (H) - W
Everton (A) - W
Norwich (H) - W
Sunderland (H) - W
Southampton (A) – W

That would be 40 points -> 77 points for the season (that would more the likely secure 3rd or 4th place)

kryogen

Im going to quote this as it possibly needs to be read again, focus on the first line, then have a good long look at the last paragraph.

It should be clear this time that the first part is tongue in cheek, and the last paragraph is a genuine answer.

Thought it would have been the first time, but there you go.

kryogen wrote: »

I predict, wistfully an Arsenal collapse and an unbelievable run from United from February on that will leave the final table looking like

1. City 88pts
2. Chelsea 81pts
3. United 77pts
4. Arsenal 75pts
5. Liverpool 72pts
6. Spurs 70pts
7. Everton 69pts
8. Newcastle 64pts

Hows that for semi random points totals

In all honesty, as things stand I would be happy enough with 4th place considering the strong form shown by all the clubs in the top 7

I do like the well thought out reasoned response to my "semi random points totals" also, unnecessary as they were obviously

noodler

EuropeanSon wrote: »

I dislike this position intensely.

Nothing is nothing. 5 points is most definitely something. It's clearly much better for Liverpool than 0 points, or 2 points.

Consider: As things stand, Liverpool can afford to lose to Utd and then match them point for point in all other results combined (they can even afford to draw one extra, with their superior GD). Were the two teams level, or Liverpool were just 2 points ahead, Liverpool would need to get something at Old Trafford and match them too in all other games. Liverpool's chances of winning at Old Trafford are certainly below 50% (in that they'll be longer than evens). Thus that difference is definitely significant.

Not saying Utd won't catch them (in fact, I voted that they would). I just think saying 5 points is insignificant is a silly point of view.

Yawn.

Ok then, five points is anything but insurmountable.


Did you get a thrill out of being a pedantic Pete there?

ronjo

irishfeen wrote: »

If United get things going any bit at all and get Rooney and RVP back then I think the following results are very possible - (I know there will always be surprise draws/even losses but this is taking into account loosing to Chelsea, Arsenal and Man City which United could get some points from)

Chelsea (A) - L
Cardiff (H) - W
Stoke (A) - W
Fulham (H) - W
Arsenal (A) - L
Crystal Palace (A) - W
Man City (H) - L
West Brom (A) - W
Liverpool (H) - D
West Ham (A) - W
Aston Villa (H) - W
Newcastle (A) - W
Hull (H) - W
Everton (A) - W
Norwich (H) - W
Sunderland (H) - W
Southampton (A) – W

That would be 40 points -> 77 points for the season (that would more the likely secure 3rd or 4th place)

But other thank those 3 games you have been conservative about you have given them 13 wins and a draw from 14 games.
Do you hosestly think thats remotely possible?

EuropeanSon

noodler wrote: »

Yawn.

Ok then, five points is anything but insurmountable.


Did you get a thrill out of being a pedantic Pete there?

Yawn.

OK then, you meant something entirely different from what you said.

Do you get a thrill out of pretending you're not backtracking and defending your points with "do you get a thrill out of pointing out that I'm wrong" type nonsense?

irishfeen

ronjo wrote: »

But other thank those 3 games you have been conservative about you have given them 13 wins and a draw from 14 games.
Do you hosestly think thats remotely possible?

With Rooney and RVP fit I think it could be very possible - not impossible anyway - as a United fan I would go into each of those 13 games expecting 3 points.

allybhoy

irishfeen wrote: »

With Rooney and RVP fit I think it could be very possible - not impossible anyway - as a United fan I would go into each of those 13 games expecting 3 points.

You EXPECT utd to beat 3 teams away from home (Newcastle, Everton, West Brom) who have already beaten utd fairly comfortably in OT this season? Southampton also played very well at OT and were possibly unlucky not to get 3 points, I wouldnt expect City to win those 4 games away from home, never mind Utd.

You also have to factor in that teams like Norwich, West Ham, Hull and Sunderland will more than likely be fighting for their survival at that stage in the season, Your either trolling or your expectation levels are set too high... dellusional

irishfeen

allybhoy wrote: »

You EXPECT utd to beat 3 teams away from home (Newcastle, Everton, West Brom) who have already beaten utd fairly comfortably in OT this season? Southampton also played very well at OT and were possibly unlucky not to get 3 points, I wouldnt expect City to win those 4 games away from home, never mind Utd.

You also have to factor in that teams like Norwich, West Ham, Hull and Sunderland will more than likely be fighting for their survival at that stage in the season, Your either trolling or your expectation levels are set too high... dellusional

We'll see! ... of course I could be wrong and United could lose some of them - Newcastle, Everton and Spurs didn't beat United "comfortably" this season, United had chances to beat all of them and probably 8/10 days united would not have lost - scoring from lack of guile has been a major problem for us this season, if we get RVP and Rooney together then it can only improve.

... and by the way don't accuse me of trolling please, its only my opinion.

ronjo

irishfeen wrote: »

We'll see! ... of course I could be wrong and United could lose some of them - Newcastle, Everton and Spurs didn't beat United "comfortably" this season, United had chances to beat all of them and probably 8/10 days united would not have lost - scoring from lack of guile has been a major problem for us this season, if we get RVP and Rooney together then it can only improve.

... and by the way don't accuse me of trolling please, its only my opinion.

What is Uniteds record this season with the two of them playing?

irishfeen

ronjo wrote: »

What is Uniteds record this season with the two of them playing?

You know I don't know - ill have to check it out.

allybhoy

irishfeen wrote: »

We'll see! ... of course I could be wrong and United could lose some of them - Newcastle, Everton and Spurs didn't beat United "comfortably" this season, United had chances to beat all of them and probably 8/10 days united would not have lost - scoring from lack of guile has been a major problem for us this season, if we get RVP and Rooney together then it can only improve.

... and by the way don't accuse me of trolling please, its only my opinion.

Ok thats fair enough but even with them both back fit i still think thats a huge huge ask to win the 13 games you expect them to. Utd havent shown any type of form this season to prove they can go on such a run and nothing suggests that both strikers will be back fit for the remainder of the season, Rooney is out for 3 weeks now , he's going to at least miss the games against Chelsea (a) Cardiff (h) and Stoke (a).

Add to this that utd are also involved in the CL and should make it through to the next round whereas Liverpool and Everton haven't got those distractions.

allybhoy

ronjo wrote: »

What is Uniteds record this season with the two of them playing?

In fairness its pretty good. They didnt play together in any of the 6 games utd have lost so far. Since RVP joined they have started 28 games together, won 22, drawn 5 and lost 1. However, out of a possible 58 league games, they have only played together 28 times, just over half. Taken from here

ronjo

allybhoy wrote: »

In fairness its pretty good. They didnt play together in any of the 6 games utd have lost so far. Since RVP joined they have started 28 games together, won 22, drawn 5 and lost 1. However, out of a possible 58 league games, they have only played together 28 times, just over half. Taken from here

Thats is good.
What about this season only? Got to be pretty good I guess too

allybhoy

ronjo wrote: »

Thats is good.
What about this season only? Got to be pretty good I guess too

No idea, but every team gets hit with injuries in fairness, liverpool havent had Suarez and Sturridge for long spells, Giroud has missed a few games for Arsenal, Aguero has been out for City etc etc. W

ronjo

allybhoy wrote: »

No idea, but everytime gets hit with injuries in fairness, liverpool havent had Suarez and Sturridge for long spells, Giroud has missed a few games for Arsenal, Aguero has been out for City etc etc.

Yes sure, as I posted earlier Liverpool have been missing one of those for only one game less than United missing Rooney and RVP.

Arsenals top scorer from last season will only start 9 games this.

noodler

EuropeanSon wrote: »

Yawn.

OK then, you meant something entirely different from what you said.

Do you get a thrill out of pretending you're not backtracking and defending your points with "do you get a thrill out of pointing out that I'm wrong" type nonsense?

Get a life pal.

Stop looking for an issue where none exists.

rob316

Im not saying Liverpool will get the Champions League spot but I cant see United getting it barring a massive collapse from Liverpool/Everton.

For them to get it they need to go on a title winning form run, I just think this season they aren't capable of it. No guarantee RVP isn't going to be crocked again later in this season. The form and results have just been too poor all season long. They also have to play away still to Chelsea, Arsenal, Everton, Newcastle and Southampton plus home games (where they have been really poor) against Liverpool and Man City.

They have been found seriously wanting against the top teams this season bar Arsenal at home.

Arsenal got 4th last year with 73 points, so say it takes 75 this season, United need 38 points from there remaining 17 games so can only afford to loose 13 points. Its not impossible with a fit and firing RVP/Rooney but IMO I just don't see it happening.


If Suarez and Sturridge can stay fit and scoring and tighten up a bit defensively I cant really look past Liverpool for it.

Liverpool have been very consistent since last January, they aren't on some sort of hot streak opposition supporters keep thinking will run out.

rob316

rob316 wrote: »

Im not saying Liverpool will get the Champions League spot but I cant see United getting it barring a massive collapse from Liverpool/Everton.

For them to get it they need to go on a title winning form run, I just think this season they aren't capable of it. No guarantee RVP isn't going to be crocked again later in this season. The form and results have just been too poor all season long. They also have to play away still to Chelsea, Arsenal, Everton, Newcastle and Southampton plus home games (where they have been really poor) against Liverpool and Man City.

They have been found seriously wanting against the top teams this season bar Arsenal at home.

Arsenal got 4th last year with 73 points, so say it takes 75 this season, United need 38 points from there remaining 17 games so can only afford to loose 13 points. Its not impossible with a fit and firing RVP/Rooney but IMO I just don't see it happening.


If Suarez and Sturridge can stay fit and scoring and tighten up a bit defensively I cant really look past Liverpool for it.

Liverpool have been very consistent since last January, they aren't on some sort of hot streak opposition supporters keep thinking will run out.

Would you consider a 5 point collapse as massive? I would if there were 2 games remaining.

However there's 51 points to play for....

K-9

rarnes1 wrote: »

Would you consider a 5 point collapse as massive? I would if there were 2 games remaining.

However there's 51 points to play for....

By that reckoning Liverpool are title contenders with all the top 6 to come to Anfield. Our year.

K-9

K-9 wrote: »

By that reckoning Liverpool are title contenders with all the top 6 to come to Anfield. Our year.

In theory Liverpool are possible title contenders.

In reality, the squad isn't near strong enough to get anywhere near the top 2. City and Chelsea have top backup players for every position. Liverpool would be severly stretched with a few injuries to certain players.