Champions league qualification.

K-9

So a 4 and a 5 point is just in theory catchable in one scenario, and not that big a lead in the other one, football fan logic for you!

I'm not writing of United at all, RVP back and things might finally click. Then again I thought the same a month ago, I know a good few United fans thought they'd have caught Liverpool by now, never mind the end of the season.

kryogen

Em, the strength of the teams come into play when talking about it, it is obviously more likely that squads such as City and Chelsea will maintain their levels of consistency, they have the squad to do it over a 38 game period. Everton, Liverpool and Spurs dont have that so are more likely to struggle at some point. They may all continue to collect points at the same rate from here till the end of the season, but that would be very unlikely.

A 4 or 5 point gap is a nice cushion when you have shown you can stay the course, its not exactly insurmountable though. Couple of shock defeats or a few draws and you are right back in the pack. Honestly, in your opinion, who is more likely to drop more points between now and the end of the season, Everton or City?

K-9

K-9 wrote: »

So a 4 and a 5 point is just in theory catchable in one scenario, and not that big a lead in the other one, football fan logic for you!

I'm not writing of United at all, RVP back and things might finally click. Then again I thought the same a month ago, I know a good few United fans thought they'd have caught Liverpool by now, never mind the end of the season.

Slight difference though. Liverpool are 6 points behind City who, and I know you're a Liverpool fan so this might be controversial, probably have a better squad than Liverpool. On the other hand United are 5 behind Liverpool at the halfway mark with the same squads that had United get 28 more points than Liverpool last season.

Shanotheslayer

Deleted User wrote: »

Slight difference though. Liverpool are 6 points behind City who, and I know you're a Liverpool fan so this might be controversial, probably have a better squad than Liverpool. On the other hand United are 5 behind Liverpool at the halfway mark with the same squads that had United get 28 more points than Liverpool last season.

City also have to play Everton Away, Utd Away,Spurs Away, Arsenal Away...

K-9

K-9 wrote: »

So a 4 and a 5 point is just in theory catchable in one scenario, and not that big a lead in the other one, football fan logic for you!

I'm not writing of United at all, RVP back and things might finally click. Then again I thought the same a month ago, I know a good few United fans thought they'd have caught Liverpool by now, never mind the end of the season.

Put it this way, I'd bet more money on Utd catching Liverpool than Liverpool winning the league. It may not happen but it's certainly the most likely of the two. Well imo anyway!

K-9

kryogen wrote: »

Em, the strength of the teams come into play when talking about it, it is obviously more likely that squads such as City and Chelsea will maintain their levels of consistency, they have the squad to do it over a 38 game period. Everton, Liverpool and Spurs dont have that so are more likely to struggle at some point. They may all continue to collect points at the same rate from here till the end of the season, but that would be very unlikely.

A 4 or 5 point gap is a nice cushion when you have shown you can stay the course, its not exactly insurmountable though. Couple of shock defeats or a few draws and you are right back in the pack. Honestly, in your opinion, who is more likely to drop more points between now and the end of the season, Everton or City?

Surprised you bit, thought it was obvious it was a bit tongue in cheek. 5 points isn't that big a lead at all. Obviously it's unlikely Liverpool would win the league, hardly just a theoretical possibility. The difference in quality between City, Chelsea and Liverpool is more than between Liverpool and rivals for fourth. Just didn't get how one seems totally improbable while United have a good chance, it's still 5/6 points in both scenarios.

Deleted User wrote: »

Slight difference though. Liverpool are 6 points behind City who, and I know you're a Liverpool fan so this might be controversial, probably have a better squad than Liverpool. On the other hand United are 5 behind Liverpool at the halfway mark with the same squads that had United get 28 more points than Liverpool last season.

Well what could prove to be the biggest difference is the not mentioned managerial change, we'll see. Spurs and Everton will have a part to play as well, I'd be surprised if both fell away. Our year was tongue in cheek btw, I wont be betting the house on it!

Shanotheslayer

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

City also have to play Everton Away, Utd Away,Spurs Away, Arsenal Away...

And most of the bottom half at home, easy.

K-9 wrote: »

Well what could prove to be the biggest difference is the not mentioned managerial change, we'll see. Spurs and Everton will have a part to play as well, I'd be surprised if both fell away. Our year was tongue in cheek btw, I wont be betting the house on it!

I got the "Our Year" bit was tongue-in-cheek :P United have 15 points from their last 6 matches. It's going to be tight but if Van Persie gets fit and stays fit United will make the top 4.

noodler

K-9 wrote: »

So a 4 and a 5 point is just in theory catchable in one scenario, and not that big a lead in the other one, football fan logic for you!

I'm not writing of United at all, RVP back and things might finally click. Then again I thought the same a month ago, I know a good few United fans thought they'd have caught Liverpool by now, never mind the end of the season.

I'd have thought it is fairly obvious.

Utd still have a stronger squad on paper than we do imo, whereas Chelsea and City have FAR stronger squads.

Its not just the 5 or 6 point gaps people are taking into consideration.

allybhoy

Deleted User wrote: »

And most of the bottom half at home, easy.

I got the "Our Year" bit was tongue-in-cheek :P United have 15 points from their last 6 matches. It's going to be tight but if Van Persie gets fit and stays fit United will make the top 4.

United's next 7 matches are...

Chelsea Away
Cardiff Home
Stoke away
Fulham home
Arsenal Away
Palace Away
City Home

To get into Champions league contention they would need to pick up 15-18 points from those games to overtake everton liverpool and Spurs and I just cant see it happening.

Courtesy Flush

Would love to see Liverpool finish top 4
However have a feeling United will get their act together and get in ahead of us as not sure Liverpool squad is strong enough.

City
Chelsea
Arsenal
Man U

allybhoy

allybhoy wrote: »

United's next 7 matches are...

Chelsea Away
Cardiff Home
Stoke away
Fulham home
Arsenal Away
Palace Away
City Home

To get into Champions league contention they would need to pick up 15-18 points from those games to overtake everton liverpool and Spurs and I just cant see it happening.

Has the league been shortened to 28 matches this year?

allybhoy

Deleted User wrote: »

Has the league been shortened to 28 matches this year?

No, they are 5 points off 4th at the moment, somebody on here pointed out that there are 51 points to play for. However utd's next 7 fixtures are tough, really tough. Looking at those fixtures I cant see them closing that gap, next two games after that are against teams that have already beaten utd, West Brom Away and Liverpool home..

Iused2likebusts

Deleted User wrote: »

And most of the bottom half at home, easy.

I got the "Our Year" bit was tongue-in-cheek :P United have 15 points from their last 6 matches. It's going to be tight but if Van Persie gets fit and stays fit United will make the top 4.

The last 6 matches were Villa, west ham, hull, norwich, spurs and swansea though. 15 pts isnt far off what is expected from those games. Id imagine 14pts is the bare minimum most of the top 7 would be aiming for in those games. A draw at home to spurs and a draw in one of the away games winning the other 4. If utd have 15 pts from their last 6 games come sunday evening then its a far more impressive statistic and their chances of CL qualification will be greatly increased.

supersean1999

Imo Its The last 7 Games that will make The difference. And If utd Hit Any Bit of form i could see them get 19 points If The Chips are down. Everton away is The hardest

mike65

Just spotted that Man Utd have played 10 games against those above them and won 1. To have a real chance that must end now.

Frankie Lee

I'm one of only 10 people who think Everton will do it, their first 11 is good enough anyway and they are adding squad depth in January with McGeady and Traore.
United are definitely out of the picture now while Tottenham while having the best squad will eventually suffer due to Sherwood's inexperience. I'd rate Everton ahead of Liverpool due to having more consistency, they were atrocious yesterday against Villa,

niallo27

Frankie Lee wrote: »

I'm one of only 10 people who think Everton will do it, their first 11 is good enough anyway and they are adding squad depth in January with McGeady and Traore.
United are definitely out of the picture now while Tottenham while having the best squad will eventually suffer due to Sherwood's inexperience. I'd rate Everton ahead of Liverpool due to having more consistency, they were atrocious yesterday against Villa,

If they were more consistent wouldn't they be ahead of liverpool. Liverpool have 28 points out of 33 at home. Saturday was not the norm. They have been very consistent at home.

SickBoy

niallo27 wrote: »

If they were more consistent wouldn't they be ahead of liverpool. Liverpool have 28 points out of 33 at home. Saturday was not the norm. They have been very consistent at home.

That's very easy to say when Liverpool have played a game more.

ronjo

niallo27 wrote: »

If they were more consistent wouldn't they be ahead of liverpool. Liverpool have 28 points out of 33 at home. Saturday was not the norm. They have been very consistent at home.

Perhaps he means because they have only lost 2 league games this season.

With Suarez on fire Liverpool look unstoppable but if he hasnt been (rare that it is) they have looked weak too.. Arsenal, Hull and Swansea away (still suspended?) for example and Saturday too.
I think Liverpool have higher highs than Everton but lower lows.

I went for United to come 4th so what do I know?

niallo27

SickBoy wrote: »

That's very easy to say when Liverpool have played a game more.

They are two points ahead of them and have been ahead of them all season. To say Everton are more consistent than liverpool is wrong. Plus they have had Liverpool at home.

everdead.ie

I see that Glen Johnson is Liverpool's latest injury out for an indefinite amount of time is the relatively small squad starting to catch up to them they aren't in Europe so you would think that things wouldn't be too bad on that front?

mike65

Liverpool beat Everton, Arsenal drew to Soton, Utd beat Cardiff

Tomorrow City meet Spurs and Chelsea beat West Ham

Vinz Mesrine

Frankie Lee wrote: »

I'm one of only 10 people who think Everton will do it, their first 11 is good enough anyway and they are adding squad depth in January with McGeady and Traore.
United are definitely out of the picture now while Tottenham while having the best squad will eventually suffer due to Sherwood's inexperience. I'd rate Everton ahead of Liverpool due to having more consistency, they were atrocious yesterday against Villa,

Ouch

mike65

City host Chelsea tomorrow but before then its been an interesting weekend, Utd lose away, Spurs draw away, Liverpool draw away and Everton win at home and Arsenal win at home. Clearly the balance of probability is for City not to lose.

If 75 points is the likely amount required for CL qualification then Utd will need 2.50 PPG for the rest of the season (which would give 95 points over 38 games), they currently win 1.67 PPG so a 50% improvement needed.

Liverpool are at 1.96 PPG = 74.48 points
Everton are at 1.88 PPG = 71.44 points
Spurs are at 1.88 PPG = 69.54 points
Man Utd are at 1.67 PPG = 63.46 points

noodler

mike65 wrote: »

City host Chelsea tomorrow but before then its been an interesting weekend, Utd lose away, Spurs draw at home, Liverpool draw away and Everton win at home and Arsenal win at home. Clearly the balance of probability is for City not to lose.

If 75 points is the likely amount required for CL qualification then Utd will need 2.50 PPG for the rest of the season (which would give 95 points over 38 games), they currently win 1.67 PPG so a 50% improvement needed.

Liverpool are at 1.96 PPG = 74.48 points
Everton are at 1.88 PPG = 71.44 points
Spurs are at 1.88 PPG = 69.54 points
Man Utd are at 1.67 PPG = 63.46 points

Spurs drew away!

K-9

Next 6 games:

Liverpool has Arsenal, Swansea and Sunderland at Home, Fulham and Southampton and then the small matter of United Away at the end.

Everton has Spurs, Chelsea and Newcastle Away, Palace, West Ham and Cardiff at home.

Spurs have Everton, Cardiff and Arsenal at Home, Newcastle, Norwich and Chelsea Away.

United have Fulham and Liverpool at home, Arsenal, Palace, Brom and WH away.

Those fixtures will tell a hell of a lot about Spurs and Everton, the common denominator is how tough will Newcastle away be, doesn't look as tough as it was at one stage of the season.

mike65

Bump!

Chelsea 56
Arsenal 55
Manchester City 54
-
-
-
Liverpool 50
-
-
Tottenham Hotspur 47
-
Everton 45
-
-
-
Manchester United 41

Alfred Borden

Looking like top 4 is decided now just for the order to be arranged. Spurs might hang around for a while but will probably drop off soon again.

Augmerson

What's the story with 4th place? Liverpool would have to play qualifiers first yeah?

batistuta9

Augmerson wrote: »

What's the story with 4th place? Liverpool would have to play qualifiers first yeah?

yeah

Frankie Lee

Augmerson wrote: »

What's the story with 4th place? Liverpool would have to play qualifiers first yeah?

Unless of course United miraculously won the Champions League.

GLaDOS

United out of the running now imo.
Everton's lack of squad depth seems to be hurting them now, especially up front.
Spurs Liverpool's main challengers for 4th I think, but I think Liverpool can stay the course.

citytillidie

irishfeen wrote: »

If United get things going any bit at all and get Rooney and RVP back then I think the following results are very possible - (I know there will always be surprise draws/even losses but this is taking into account loosing to Chelsea, Arsenal and Man City which United could get some points from)

Chelsea (A) - L
Cardiff (H) - W
Stoke (A) - W
Fulham (H) - W
Arsenal (A) - L
Crystal Palace (A) - W
Man City (H) - L
West Brom (A) - W
Liverpool (H) - D
West Ham (A) - W
Aston Villa (H) - W
Newcastle (A) - W
Hull (H) - W
Everton (A) - W
Norwich (H) - W
Sunderland (H) - W
Southampton (A) – W

That would be 40 points -> 77 points for the season (that would more the likely secure 3rd or 4th place)

Yep that is a realist target down to 72 points already

I can see Sherwood not getting too much time from the media once things don't go brilliantly. He was a bit cheeky with the Sky interviewer this evening. I say cheeky, what he said was fine but showing a journalist's ignorance ain't the way to keep them onside.

electrobanana

Deleted User wrote: »

I can see Sherwood not getting too much time from the media once things don't go brilliantly. He was a bit cheeky with the Sky interviewer this evening. I say cheeky, what he said was fine but showing a journalist's ignorance ain't the way to keep them onside.

fcuk the journalists they cant win you games tbf.. i think a lot of people are writing off Spurs for 4th we're playing crap but just 3 points off Liverpool who are on fire..long way to go...COYS

CSF

electrobanana wrote: »

fcuk the journalists they cant win you games tbf.. i think a lot of people are writing off Spurs for 4th we're playing crap but just 3 points off Liverpool who are on fire..long way to go...COYS

They can get you sacked a lot quicker than you should though.

electrobanana

electrobanana wrote: »

fcuk the journalists they cant win you games tbf.. i think a lot of people are writing off Spurs for 4th we're playing crap but just 3 points off Liverpool who are on fire..long way to go...COYS

If the media weren't onside for Moyes he'd be under a lot more pressure a lot sooner.

Augmerson

Frankie Lee wrote: »

Unless of course United miraculously won the Champions League.

Drawing at home with a team bottom of the Premier League doesn't exactly inspire confidence that such a feat is remotely possible. Still, stranger things have happened in football.

The_Kew_Tour

:pac::pac:

Not a hope will United win CL.

Never mind a miracle it will require Divine Intervention.

ahnowbrowncow

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

:pac::pac:

Not a hope will United win CL.

Never mind a miracle it will require Divine Intervention.

A miracle is divine intervention.

mike65

Everton and City saw their home games cancelled.


Spurs win away (0-4)
Liverpool win away (2-3)
Arsenal drew home with Man Utd (0-0)
Chelsea drew away (1-1)


The top 6 looks like this

Chelsea 26 +27 57

Arsenal 26 +22 56

Man City 25 +41 54

Liverpool 26 +34 53

Spurs 26 +4 50

Everton 25 +11 45

cson

Arsenal could quite easily get dragged into that if they don't rebound out of this little mini-crisis soon.

MaroonAndGreen

cson wrote: »

Arsenal could quite easily get dragged into that if they don't rebound out of this little mini-crisis soon.

Arsenal arent in a mini crisis in fairness. Losing at Anfield and drawing with Utd isnt overly bad

greendom

MaroonAndGreen wrote: »

Arsenal arent in a mini crisis in fairness. Losing at Anfield and drawing with Utd isnt overly bad

Need to win the next 3 games (all winnable on paper) to be back in the hunt

everdead.ie

greendom wrote: »

Need to win the next 3 games (all winnable on paper) to be back in the hunt

I think they need to win the three games more to keep the media off their back than to stay in the hunt every team drops points but Arsenal are still in a good position, but this Arsenal crisis business is pre-mature.

gnfnrhead

cson wrote: »

Arsenal could quite easily get dragged into that if they don't rebound out of this little mini-crisis soon.

Liverpool and Man United back to back are a mini crisis? Pretty much every team would drop points in that double header.

batistuta9

gnfnrhead wrote: »

Liverpool and Man United back to back are a mini crisis? Pretty much every team would drop points in that double header.

go back to southampton away and it's 5/12
wouldn't call it a crisis either though but it's thrown about a lot

Speak Now

If Everton pip Aresnal and top 3 dont fall in a hole it looks like one person will have
this right, not even 1%!! Who are ya???

Turtwig

Me, I've yet to vote though. :pac:

Shanotheslayer

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

If Everton pip Aresnal and top 3 dont fall in a hole it looks like one person will have
this right, not even 1%!! Who are ya???

Think I am