Severe Wind Storm late 26th-27th December

Lenny5

Wind picking up strongly in Ballina.

Harps

Wind picking up on the Donegal coast having been quite calm for most of the day, recent gust of 75kph at my nearest station on Edernish Island with a sustained breeze now

n32

wind picking up around cork harbour now.
Pardon my ignorance but how many red alert warnings have met eirean issued since the new alert system came in?

pad199207

The change from clear blue sunny skies to cloudy was very rapid

maquiladora

n32 wrote: »

wind picking up around cork harbour now.
Pardon my ignorance but how many red alert warnings have met eirean issued since the new alert system came in?

Theres been a couple for the west/northwest. Pretty sure this is the first for the southwest/south.

nkay1985

Are we talking 8pm - 9pm for Waterford before it really hits? Just started to rain here.

aboyro

Wind and Rain have arrived with a bang.

kerrywez

I know of only 2 this one and one a few weeks ago. Starting to get going here near Killorglin, Kerry and the hunt have just crossed the field behind the house we are at for dinner, I am sure the horse boxes will catch a lot of wind, hope they all get home safe.

SweetCaliber

Starting to pick up here now in Tramore, Co.Waterford. Heavy Hail and starting to get windy.

Sudden change in the sky!

MadYaker

Spring Onion wrote: »

Anyone in Galway wanting to see big seas, the best road to approach is via Threadneedle Rd (a hill) - wide road with ample parking, no risk of flooding. Easy walk down to Blackrock diving board for a great view of the tempest. High tide around midnight.

Much better to see a storm outdoors than on a computer!!

I can see Blackrock diving board from my house, should be a good show!

Its started to pick up in Galway now, it was calm earlier but now theres a bit of wind and rain. Maybe its just me but theres a real "calm before the storm atmosphere about the place" at the moment. There isn't many people out and about and its very quiet apart from the wind.

Edit: saw someone post earlier about flying into knock airport at 1pm tomorrow, id say you can forget about it to be honest, its not happening.

Bsal

Up to 45kts sustained wind inland at 06z :eek:

Xenji

It has been like 2 different days here in Castlebar, winds are rapidly picking up now and the rain is coming down heavy as well

dharma200

Bsal wrote: »

Up to 45kts sustained wind inland at 06z :eek:

Wish I knew how to read those charts, but the smiley kind of tells me it's not looking good!!!
Am defo going to spend a bit of time this year learning about all of this, these threads fascinate me.... And would love to be a weather watcher and know all the ins and outs and charts and predictions...

Red Nissan

A good run of wind there, making my max gust [so far today] 23hm/h with a little rain

maquiladora

Wind rising quickly at Cobh. Pity there is no met station at Loop Head.

Bejubby

Just cloudy and a slight breeze in the south east.

Irish Steve

Xenji wrote: »

It has been like 2 different days here in Castlebar, winds are rapidly picking up now and the rain is coming down heavy as well

same in Clare. winds have come up significantly in the last half hour and rain also. probably about strength 5 or slightly more. lot more noise in the chimney.

Iancar29

Here comes " ERICH " !

Red Nissan

dharma200 wrote: »

And would love to be a weather watcher and know all the ins and outs and charts and predictions...

And so would many of the experts, too

It's a huge subject, not only is the discussion talking about interpretation of the actually written charts, which is part of the story, another side is the predictive nature of the event which can be have a few possible outcomes depending on how closely one expert saw the potential for development and influence.

vickers209

Extofex have a level one for northern half of the country

A level 1 was issued for northern Ireland and western Scotland mainly for severe wind gusts.

Northern British Isles

A new storm will affect the northern British Isles late in the period. Along the cold front, rather stable conditions are expected, and severe thunderstorms are rather unlikely. The best potential of a few embedded thunderstorms exost across northern Irleland on Thursday evening. These storms, however, may be capable of producing severe wind gusts given the strong background wind field. Additionally, a tornado is not ruled out.

In the wake of the cold front, a well mixed maritime air mass will enter the northern British Isles. Especially near the base of the trough, thunderstorms are possible. Given strong low-level vertical wind shear, some bowing lines are forecast to enhance the wind potential and a level 1 is warranted.

M.T. Cranium

At this point "potential for" can probably come out of the thread title.

This is rapidly developing into an extreme storm and it may produce damaging wind gusts in all exposed locations with the possible exception of parts of Ulster that will be perhaps too close to the calm centre of the low, but even there potential for fairly high gusts at early and late stages of the event.

I have attached a map of what I believe may be the maximum gust potential but I agree with the concept of possible tornadic wind streaks or a sting jet, in fact that was already in our boards forecast discussion, and the most likely area to see those would probably be (roughly speaking) from a Galway-Limerick line east to a Meath-Carlow arc, or within 100 kms of Athlone to Thurles. My map does not show any specific results of that potential and these tornadic streaks would be outliers over top of the depicted general pattern.



I have been taking into consideration comments from posters about local effects and this may explain the rather convoluted pattern I am showing, obviously local effects will then come into play and if you happen to live in a deep valley behind a sheltering hill in a zone marked 140 or 150, you won't see those gusts right where you live hopefully, but could experience them in more open country nearby.

The 12z guidance seems to have upgraded slightly but in any case I was going basically on the strong jet and general consensus of a mid-940s type low taking a near to northwest coast track and so our own forecast does not need to be amended, it was already calling for an extreme event.

Low is clearly bombing out now around 53N 18W, ignore wind reports from M6 buoy as sensors are clearly disabled. Pressure should be okay. More in a while, stay safe tonight, this will be blasting into the southwest very soon. The first round is going to be the accelerating occluded front which may have some local severe gusts well out ahead of the main wind field expected to arrive overnight. Worst conditions in Galway, Limerick and Cork as examples should be around 0600-1200h. Dublin is going to see very strong gusts in a similar time frame but may also see more variable speeds. Local effects from mountains will be significant, strongest winds will come from about 240 deg or WSW.

I hope Galway city or regional authorities have been made aware of the storm surge potential which could be higher than the full moon event due to this extreme gradient. There could also be significant wind damage in areas impacted by shore flooding making rescues or recovery difficult. Anyone who has parked within 5 metres of tide level should seriously think about moving their vehicle to a safer spot, huge waves could crash over sea walls even if the surge doesn't.

(added comment, Estofex map seems too far north, svr tstm potential south and central Ireland)

Chicken Run

East Clare within the last half hour has gone from a pleasant day to squally rain.... wind picking up and barometer falling (mine's in inches it's that old)

maquiladora

vickers209 wrote: »

Yep. Remember though that estofex only give forecasts/warning for convective weather.

TheMilkyPirate

Heading out for the night now, How long I stay out depends on the weather If it's serious I'll go home and follow on the laptop.

Stay safe everyone

Storm 10

Shannon Airport reporting wind 45 knots with severe turbulance on approach to runway 24

zenno

It looks like the very south-east coast is going to get a real hammering tonight.

TheMilkyPirate

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

At this point "potential for" can probably come out of the thread title.

This is rapidly developing into an extreme storm and it may produce damaging wind gusts in all exposed locations with the possible exception of parts of Ulster that will be perhaps too close to the calm centre of the low, but even there potential for fairly high gusts at early and late stages of the event.

I have attached a map of what I believe may be the maximum gust potential but I agree with the concept of possible tornadic wind streaks or a sting jet, in fact that was already in our boards forecast discussion, and the most likely area to see those would probably be (roughly speaking) from a Galway-Limerick line east to a Meath-Carlow arc, or within 100 kms of Athlone to Thurles. My map does not show any specific results of that potential and these tornadic streaks would be outliers over top of the depicted general pattern.

I have been taking into consideration comments from posters about local effects and this may explain the rather convoluted pattern I am showing, obviously local effects will then come into play and if you happen to live in a deep valley behind a sheltering hill in a zone marked 140 or 150, you won't see those gusts right where you live hopefully, but could experience them in more open country nearby.

The 12z guidance seems to have upgraded slightly but in any case I was going basically on the strong jet and general consensus of a mid-940s type low taking a near to northwest coast track and so our own forecast does not need to be amended, it was already calling for an extreme event.

Low is clearly bombing out now around 53N 18W, ignore wind reports from M6 buoy as sensors are clearly disabled. Pressure should be okay. More in a while, stay safe tonight, this will be blasting into the southwest very soon. The first round is going to be the accelerating occluded front which may have some local severe gusts well out ahead of the main wind field expected to arrive overnight. Worst conditions in Galway, Limerick and Cork as examples should be around 0600-1200h. Dublin is going to see very strong gusts in a similar time frame but may also see more variable speeds. Local effects from mountains will be significant, strongest winds will come from about 240 deg or WSW.

I hope Galway city or regional authorities have been made aware of the storm surge potential which could be higher than the full moon event due to this extreme gradient. There could also be significant wind damage in areas impacted by shore flooding making rescues or recovery difficult. Anyone who has parked within 5 metres of tide level should seriously think about moving their vehicle to a safer spot, huge waves could crash over sea walls even if the surge doesn't.

(added comment, Estofex map seems too far north, svr tstm potential south and central Ireland)

Your map isn't showing MT.

leahyl

Wind really starting to pick up now in cork city

Tactical

Rain driven by a South Easterly breeze arriving here at my exposed location in West Limerick.

It will be interesting watching for it to swing around to the South West as normally winds are South Westerly.

Bring it on

LadyMayBelle

Will be avidly following this thread. Galway isn't too bad at moment, wind wise (I'm by the racecourse) but starting to rain. Was in salthill earlier, windy, tide on way out and they've blocked off the road and carpark most likely to flood but there were plenty of people ignoring signs and pulling aside traffic cones to drive thru blocked off areas. That really irks me.
Stay safe everyone.