Gold Cup 2014

nobody told me

jimjamcos wrote: »

Tomorrow's the day when the GC will be well and truly shaken up. Last Instalment to prove himself a real contender.

Delighted for ya jim!

jimjamcos

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Last Instalment could still become the horse I thought he would 2 years ago. His win in the 3m novice at Xmas marked him out to me as something very special. I'd rarely seen a novice jump like that, he simply steps over his fences

Today was very impressive & the market drift makes me think Fenton wasn't putting people away about his fitness during the week

Must admit I'm glad I've NRNB, when a horse has leg problems you have to assume they won't run him on anything other than safe ground.

First Lieutenant to go Ryanair again if Last Instalment lines up on the Friday?

I'd still run FL in the Gold Cup. He's a 3miler and would improve for Cheltenham and better ground (if he got it). Can't see him reversing form with Bobs Worth or LI as just doesn't stay aswell but could see him placing and two bullets are better than one in racing's biggest race. Will always get done for toe in the Ryanair imo.

faoile@n

jimjamcos wrote: »

I'd still run FL in the Gold Cup. He's a 3miler and would improve for Cheltenham and better ground (if he got it). Can't see him reversing form with Bobs Worth or LI as just doesn't stay aswell but could see him placing and two bullets are better than one in racing's biggest race. Will always get done for toe in the Ryanair imo.

FL is not a 3 miler but anyway the Gold Cup trip is 3m 2f over a very testing course

First Lieutenant wouldn't get that trip in a horse box.

WIth no Cue Card in the Ryanair he's have a very good chance there

jimjamcos

faoile@n wrote: »

FL is not a 3 miler but anyway the Gold Cup trip is 3m 2f over a very testing course

First Lieutenant wouldn't get that trip in a horse box.

WIth no Cue Card in the Ryanair he's have a very good chance there

What is he so if he's not a 3miler? Never said he'd be winning over 3m2. His optimum race is Aintree. He would, however, stay GC trip well enough to have place claims, just like he would only have place claims in Ryanair. Know which race I'd rather place in. He made a bad mistake when pace was cranked up in last years Ryanair and lacked toe when it mattered. Don't see how he will this year, regardless of whether Cue Card turns up or not.

klairondavis

Well done Last Instalment backers. I thought people were mad to be backing him antepost a few weeks ago but I am delighted to be proven wrong.

ste2010

Is it fair to say the only reason LI is not j fav now is because of his history..what he did today was serious. The field were miles behind and he wasn't asked for the kitchen sink unlike bobs worth in December

jimjamcos

ste2010 wrote: »

Is it fair to say the only reason LI is not j fav now is because of his history..what he did today was serious. The field were miles behind and he wasn't asked for the kitchen sink unlike bobs worth in December

Agree. Has ran 6 times over fences - 5 wins and one close 3rd on comeback after 2 years off and a trip too short. There's only 3 horses who can win the GC imo and @ 10/1 he has to be value of the 3 still. Totally unexposed and could well be a superstar. Can't wait for March now!

Hulk Hands

faoile@n wrote: »

FL is not a 3 miler but anyway the Gold Cup trip is 3m 2f over a very testing course

First Lieutenant wouldn't get that trip in a horse box.

WIth no Cue Card in the Ryanair he's have a very good chance there

His 3 best runs have all been over 3 miles. 3 miles on good ground suits the horse perfectly, such as the Aintree race. he'd have been a very clear winner of an RSA had he not come up against a Cheltenham machine in Bobs Worth.

ste2010 wrote: »

Is it fair to say the only reason LI is not j fav now is because of his history..what he did today was serious. The field were miles behind and he wasn't asked for the kitchen sink unlike bobs worth in December

Nah, you couldn't have him anywhere near Bobs Worth's price given the unknowns with track and especially ground, even if he had a perfect prep. Regardless of how much better LI was today compared to BW'S lexus (LI loved the ground, BW didn't), BW has shown to be a completely different animal around Cheltenham and nothing LI has done thus far has surpassed the 2 performances he's put up there. LI would probably be close to second fav though had he a clear run on what he's shown thus far. If all get there good and well, on good to soft ground, I think 6/4 BW, 3's SC, 5's LI and 7's CC will probably be close to the book (hitting about 95% with rags also there). I had a think about it today and he'd probably want to be 7/2 or under for me to hedge out the win part of my 50's, given that he wont run unless soft is in the description. Could have a very big chance

Harry Angstrom

Last Instalment at 10/1 NRNB for the Gold Cup is a great bet. I still reckon Bobs Worth will be very hard to beat but Last Instalment is a very nice insurance bet.
I can't understand how the non-stayer Cue Card is a shorter price than Last Instalment. The mind boggles

hucklebuck

There was plenty to like about LI yesterday and looked to have a fair bit up the sleeve. I dont think there will be much between him and Bobs in March.

ste2010

You'd have to consider keeping Brian o'connell on for the GC

hucklebuck

ste2010 wrote: »

You'd have to consider keeping Brian o'connell on for the GC

He should but Cooper will pit his hand up. Only 9 seconds slower than Lexus yesterday, Lexus was soft/yielding

Colonel Sanders

hucklebuck wrote: »

Lexus was soft/yielding

And they went no gallop early yesterday, last Instalment only ended up in the lead as his jumping took him there

Hopefully all is well today. I'm one of those on at 50s NRNB but still think there's a decent chance he won't actually run. That's why the 50s NRNB was so idiotic, the only way he'd end up lining up is if he'd performed well after his come back in which case he'd be far shorter on the day

Malarkey121

I don't have the records to hand but how far back do we go for an Irish Hennessey and GC winner id say it doesn't come up very often? The number of Hennessey runners go for the Gold Cup? I would imagine the Lexus Chase would throw up stronger form for wins, top 3 for Cheltenham?
Id be interested to see how many of the runners of the Hennessey and Lexus go for the Gold Cup and what are the results are like.

I'm not knocking the horse or the run, He jumped perfect throughout, visually impressive and jumping is the name of the game, people that got 50's each way are on value if he does show up on the day and if he gets the right safe jumping conditions.

Colonel Sanders

Timeform have Last Instalment 10lbs behind Bobs Worth & 7lbs behind Silviniaco after yesterday

https://twitter.com/timeform1948/status/432838459351261184

kiers47

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Timeform have Last Instalment 10lbs behind Bobs Worth & 7lbs behind Silviniaco after yesterday

https://twitter.com/timeform1948/status/432838459351261184

That's probably about right for the moment all things considered.

BumperD

Atr reporting LI fine this morning. Fingers crossed he makes it. Would be good to bring the Gold Cup back to Irish soil.

Panrich

Imperial Call 1996 last Irish winner of both

fizzyboy

I thought before Last Instalment got injured he was a future Gold Cup winner.....I think he has to be in the mix with Bobs Worth and Silviano. Would really feel sorry for O'Connell if he lost the ride but fear Cooper will opt for him which as first jockey he obviously has the right to do.

Dr. Bre

supposedly there considering the ryanair for LI. safe option?

Gringo180

Panrich wrote: »

Imperial Call 1996 last Irish winner of both

We'll have a winner next year in Annie Power

battser

Just watched the race there. Most impressive set of jumps put in that I have seen in a good while. You'd be delighted with the 50's so well done whoever got on lads. Great call.

mdwexford

jimjamcos wrote: »

Hope you got some of the 50's lad!

I wish, no bets for me so far.
Looking nice for you though.

Dr. Bre wrote: »

supposedly there considering the ryanair for LI. safe option?

Stupid option, if the horse is in good nick with his past problems they should give him his chance. I'd rate him the main danger to BW now and being afraid of one horse is always silly.

He will 100% be in the Gold Cup imo.

kiers47

Gringo180 wrote: »

We'll have a winner next year in Annie Power

Unlikely. They will hardly be running her in open company in her novice season.

Colonel Sanders

Dr. Bre wrote: »

supposedly there considering the ryanair for LI. safe option?

He has an entry but his 2 best performances to my eye came over 3m (The Hennessy & the 3m novice at Xmas 2011). he wasn't anywhere near as impressive in the Moriarty over 2m 5

Has to be Gold Cup if (and I still think its a reasonable sized if) he travels

Gringo180

kiers47 wrote: »

Unlikely. They will hardly be running her in open company in her novice season.

:o 2 years so :cool:

shy-tall-knight

Interesting comments from Fenton today not ruling out the Ryanair. I'm sure O'leary would like to win his own race and Last Installment doesn't lack the pace to win it, particularly if Cue Card goes for gold.
The joker in the pack and possibly the horse that solves the key in figuring out where Gigginstown place their horses is Bog Warrior. If he demolishes the opposition this Saturday he could be the number 1 hope, Gold Cup being his only entry. If he doesn't live up to what I've been led
 to believe he's being showing at home all winter, then I'd be certain of Last Installment going for the gc.

Colonel Sanders

Fenton saying Gold Cup is the plan in the Racingpost

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/last-instalment-in-fine-form-following-hennessy-win/1605253/

jimjamcos

Anything but the GC for LI would be beyond idiotic. He's a GC horse and that's what Gigginstown are in the game for. They might as well pack the whole operation up if they're going to start running 3milers in a 2m5 race just because it carries their name!!

Colonel Sanders

Donn McClean likes Last Instalment

I can't disagree with much of what he says

UrbanSea

Took a chance on Bog Warrior 80/1 NRNB. If he runs well at the weekend he'll be slashed, if not he won't go.

Colonel Sanders

UrbanSea wrote: »

Took a chance on Bog Warrior 80/1 NRNB. If he runs well at the weekend he'll be slashed, if not he won't go.

The beauty of NRNB!

Strange thing is some horses aren't being priced up as if they were betting NRNB. It's usually a case of ante post rules but prices are almost the same as if they lined up on the day

Colonel Sanders

Was offered 3.04 each way at 80/1 with Skybet.

What an absolutely pathetic joke. Note my account is relatively clean. They don't seem to lay any bet to win more than about 250 quid

Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Was offered 3.04 each way at 80/1 with Skybet.

What an absolutely pathetic joke. Note my account is relatively clean. They don't seem to lay any bet to win more than about 250 quid

Just looking at my figures

First bet I had with em I took a monkey out backing Champagne Fever for the bumper at 16/1 (note this was an ante post bet, he was bigger on the day)

Lost 271.80 to them in 2012 & won 238.71 off them last year. Really giving them the run around eh?


Sorry for going off topic but this sh!t is getting out of hand

UrbanSea

Don't use Sky bet I backed it with victor chandler and that race is NRNB as opposed to NRFB

Colonel Sanders

UrbanSea wrote: »

Don't use Sky bet I backed it with victor chandler and that race is NRNB as opposed to NRFB

They'll lay me a max of €0.00

faoile@n

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

They'll lay me a max of €0.00

Do you arb?

Must be a reason they're all limiting you.

Colonel Sanders

faoile@n wrote: »

Do you arb?

Only in shops to keep online a/c clean

Skybet are a total joke even as a new customer. VC are a pathetic shower, I know nobody who can get a bet on with them

Colonel Sanders

Anyhow, back on topic:

Al Ferof sidesteps Gold Run

mdwexford

Yeah was to be expected after Saturday, clearly wouldn't stay the Gold Cup trip.

Interesting in the Ryanair though.

Hulk Hands

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Only in shops to keep online a/c clean

Skybet are a total joke even as a new customer. VC are a pathetic shower, I know nobody who can get a bet on with them

It's pot luck colonel. I cant get a fiver with Ladbrokes yet they'll lay Kevin Blake to lose 25k a year in low grade handicaps. I have no trouble with VC in contrast to you. I can get on with Coral in contrast with Urban but cant get a bean with 365, SJ etc. Pot luck. Skybet are easy to close though due to a good risk team and small client base

mdwexford

My Powers Acc has been locked down.

Max win of about 100 profit per bet, tried 10ew on an 8/1 the other night and wouldn't let me.

ste2010

Bet 365 only let me bet w/o the first fav and fav2.

Colonel Sanders

Forfeit stage tomorrow

Lets hope Philip Fenton's remembered to tip his postman

jimjamcos

UrbanSea wrote: »

Took a chance on Bog Warrior 80/1 NRNB. If he runs well at the weekend he'll be slashed, if not he won't go.

Put him up on here awhile back and got a bit of a slating for it, but he's exactly the type of bet you'd want to be placing with NRNB. Ground dependent and a bit to prove but way too much talent to be a 80's shot. If turning up, will be a 16/1 poke, at worst. Only difference between himself and LI though is he'd be likely to land on his arse when he gets there!! :P

Malarkey121

To show up as random betting pattern log into oddschecker and every once in a awhile flat, jumps look for a few blue ones and back a few of them each way for buttons and stay online for the day, have a look at every single race for that afternoon, click on a few horses put a bet into the box, change it, select another add to slip, don't confirm it, select another one back it.

Log in on a Saturday morning withdraw any winnings you have but LEAVE in a few quid for the "lucky days big bet" and do an eachway yankee, lucky15, patent, lucky numbers and a footie accum these bets on Saturday should total what you have left in account, 8 euro, 16 euro whatever it may be throw it all into them type of bets.

normal gamblers act like this, people who are selective or looking for value and percentages do not

yaboya1

Malarkey121 wrote: »

To show up as random betting pattern log into oddschecker and every once in a awhile flat, jumps look for a few blue ones and back a few of them each way for buttons and stay online for the day, have a look at every single race for that afternoon, click on a few horses put a bet into the box, change it, select another add to slip, don't confirm it, select another one back it.

Log in on a Saturday morning withdraw any winnings you have but LEAVE in a few quid for the "lucky days big bet" and do an eachway yankee, lucky15, patent, lucky numbers and a footie accum these bets on Saturday should total what you have left in account, 8 euro, 16 euro whatever it may be throw it all into them type of bets.

normal gamblers act like this, people who are selective or looking for value and percentages do not

And what relevance has this got to the Gold Cup?

Malarkey121

yaboya1 wrote: »

And what relevance has this got to the Gold Cup?

Yaboya1, forgive me for upsetting the flow and going off topic by giving my 2 cents worth to what was being discussed by previous posters.

Back to the Gold Cup

I think its between SC and CC no other horse interests me at this moment, I believe they between them have ran better in their last 2 races and have more potential for that important improvement required.

I didn't listen to the CC wont stay the Betfair trip in a horsebox crap and I still wont listen to it for the GC, he deserves to line up and I wish him and connections all the best.

SC ran a brilliant race last time at Kempton (a track I don't think suits a few others) but he did it in style and well it was clear to see last years race before coming to mishap he has a solid chance to beat BW all going well.

BW will be popular but not for me he was beaten already and I just feel he can be got at again and a competitive race where 2-3 viable other options will be going for it and maybe from the front, to be honest I will be surprised if BW puts in a clear round of jumping and wins it if a few of these take the race on early.

LI jumped very very well last time out he may run well IF he runs on the Friday and IF he gets the conditions he will need, if he doesn't settle he will need to be sent off again in front and could have a few behind in trouble with the jumping needing to be spot perfect, although at the prices available now I don't see it as a rush to be getting on right at this moment.

mdwexford

Cue Card was the most obvious non stayer I've seen in the King George so I don't know how you can say its crap. If he's not allowed to dictate at the front then he has no chance.

Bobs Worth getting beaten once means you rule him out?
He's a Cheltenham monster, if he's in the shake up two out he is going past whatever is in his way imo. This is a worse race than last years imo, Sir Des Champs provides tougher opposition than any of these bar the unexposed Last Instalment because we don't know how good he is.

jimjamcos

Start backing the trifecta now, lads, there's only 3 horses that can win it, barring accidents. There's only three horses that will be staying up that hill at any great pace and that's BW, LI and SC. CC hasn't an earthly chance of staying and would be in the Ryanair if they hadn't won it last year, Harry Topper will be on his arse after a circuit and Bogs Warrior probably won't run. Back BW to win and LI ew, then back the trifecta on the day. And then back them again!