Atlantic Storm Watch & Coastal Flooding Events: January 2014

whiteandlight

Steopo wrote: »

Looks like same or slightly higher waves but with more energy but with winds lighter and tide lower do you reckon the impact would be about the same or possible a bit worse with some defences already damaged?

Exactly what I'm wondering

dacogawa

dacogawa wrote: »

None of the models agree about next Sunday/Monday. I'm putting the 3 charts here & going to come back next weekend & see which is closest & that's the one I'm going to trust the most for the rest of the winter for FI

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013123006/gfs-0-150.png?6

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013123000/ECM1-144.GIF?30-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013123000/UW144-21.GIF?30-06

bnt wrote: »

Not sure how much I can trust a GFS model for 168h (7 days) ahead. IIRC it was pretty good at predicting the big storm we had last week, a week ahead.

maquiladora wrote: »

I wouldn't trust it at all, but it's an example of the kind of stuff coming up on the models. It's unlikely it will come off like that, but another variation of it might since we are now in a pattern with low pressure systems passing close to or over Ireland.

OK guys I'm trusting the GFS for the rest of the winter in FI (maybe ) I know it wasn't a great test but it is very close to what's coming in now, the other 2 were nowhere near to what they are saying now...

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010418/gfs-0-18.png?18

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010412/ECM1-24.GIF?04-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014010412/UW18-21.GIF?04-18

H2UMrsRobinson

billie1b wrote: »

I prefered Sofia

Sophie you mean :P , yeh me too lol

Harps

dacogawa wrote: »

OK guys I'm trusting the GFS for the rest of the winter in FI (maybe ) I know it wasn't a great test but it is very close to what's coming in now, the other 2 were nowhere near to what they are saying now...

ECMWF wasn't far off at all..? The only difference is that there's a more developed low over us on last weeks forecast but for a near week old forecast its excellent

Forecast last week



Expected conditions

Steopo

dacogawa I think your ECM historical chart was for 1am Sunday rather than 1pm so not comparing like for like

maquiladora

Steopo wrote: »

Looks like same or slightly higher waves but with more energy but with winds lighter and tide lower do you reckon the impact would be about the same or possible a bit worse with some defences already damaged?

I'm not an expert in these things at all but it would seem that at least for some places the lower tides will be cancelled out by higher waves when comparing to Friday morning. Also, if I remember rightly, high tide on Friday morning was a few hours after the biggest swell and highest winds whereas this time the highest waves seem to be arriving closer to the time of high tide, and with high seas lasting for a longer period and with more energy, and as you say some places have lost coastal defences, I'd imagine coastal flooding might be worse in some areas than Friday. But thats just my amateur guessing. Hopefully it won't be that bad.

dacogawa

Harps wrote: »

ECMWF wasn't far off at all..? The only difference is that there's a more developed low over us on last weeks forecast but for a near week old forecast its excellent

Yeah, it was close but I do think the GFS got it very, very close for my own little test, even the high over Italy. If you look at the 6 hours ahead chart as well, so I'd say the GFS is 3 hours slow & a little wonky a week out

dacogawa

Steopo wrote: »

dacogawa I think your ECM historical chart was for 1am Sunday rather than 1pm so not comparing like for like

I know couldn't get the other one, but it was just a little test done when this thread started see which would come closest

billie1b

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

Sophie you mean :P , yeh me too lol

Yeah Sophie, sorry, bloody phone

cocoemma

Would kilmore quay be at risk for flooding on monday morning?

yop

Just a question and I hope it isn't off topic, but what will conditions be like in say Mayo/Galway at 6.30am on Monday morning, I have to drive to work and don't want to be caught up in it really.

maquiladora

Last pic for the night. Here she is at midnight, amazing scale and structure.

omicron

angelfire9

Looks like Lahinch and carrigaholt could be fecked
Pic of carrigaholt:

Note the sea is on the LEFT!!!

Elmer Blooker

It's hard to believe that theres such a monster out there in the Atlantic, at the moment its a clear calm starry night, temp 0.2c

Flan_Da_Man

OMG. The storm is looking menacing out there. Getting worried now. Cork along with many areas are gonna see a lot of flooding.

Hope everyone is taking measures to look after themselves.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=351.76,47.77,1024

loubian

maquiladora wrote: »

Last pic for the night. Here she is at midnight, amazing scale and structure.

I can't read these (yet) but it looks scary!

Faustino

maquiladora wrote: »

Last pic for the night. Here she is at midnight, amazing scale and structure.

Looks like an aggressive porcupine in the middle

up for anything

Faustino wrote: »

Looks like an aggressive porcupine in the middle

I don't like the look of the scary abominable snowman in the bottom right hand corner.

dinorebel

up for anything wrote: »

I don't like the look of the scary abominable snowman in the bottom right hand corner.

That's Santa having his post Christmas hangover.

Oscar Bravo

16:22 update from Met
Today
It will continue to be wet and windy this evening and tonight with further spells of heavy showery rain. Lowest temperatures of 3 to 7 degrees.


Tomorrow

Continuing windy again tomorrow with widespread heavy showers, more prolonged in western areas. Highest temperatures of 8 to 10 degrees.

Outlook

There is still the risk of coastal flooding with high tides and some strong winds at the start of the week. However it will become less windy from Tuesday onwards, with largely dry weather until later in the week.

The windy weather will continue overnight on Monday, with heavy, possibly thundery showers along western and southern coasts. Lows of 4 to 6 degrees.

Tuesday will be another breezy day, with more heavy showers in Atlantic coastal counties. The fresh southwest winds will continue and will be strong along coasts. Much of Leinster and east Ulster should remain largely dry. Highs of 8 or 9 degrees. Winds will ease off on Tuesday night and temperatures will drop to between 2 and 4 degrees.

Wednesday will bring an improvement in the weather with just occasional showers in parts of the west. It will be less windy too with light southerly winds. Highs of 7 to 10 degrees. Some outbreaks of rain look like affecting eastern parts overnight, with lows of 0 to 3 degrees.

Thursday will be a similar day, largely dry with light winds. A little cooler with highs of 6 to 8 degrees. A cool start to Thursday night, with a touch of frost, but rain will move into the west coast towards the morning.

This rain will spread eastwards through Friday, with moderate winds.

irish1967

Testing testing. Donegal Calling. Is the rest of Ireland still in existence ??? Oh god we are alone.

irishgeo

anyone know what happened to Buoy M1?

its not on met.ie and there is no explanation as to what happened, it only says m3 is missing , m4 and m5 dont do wave heights.

kkel

Are we back?

kkel

Are we back?

ednwireland

irish1967 wrote: »

Testing testing. Donegal Calling. Is the rest of Ireland still in existence ??? Oh god we are alone.

nah dav did it

ninebeanrows

Has everybody survived!?

ninebeanrows

Has everybody survived!?

Faustino

Welcome back, we haven't been washed away yet it seems!

Faustino

Welcome back, we haven't been washed away yet it seems!