January 2014 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

ALERT is issued for the January 2014 forecast contest.

The 1981-2010 average IMT for January is 5.3 C

As always, the contest has five regular questions:

1. Predict the IMT (average for Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon)

2. Predict the MAX anywhere that Met.ie has a thermometer in action as reported in the Monthly Summary

3. Predict the MIN same basis

4. Predict the PRC as % of normal (winter PRC includes melted equivalents)

5. Predict the SUN as % of normal at reporting stations

6. Bonus this month: Maximum gust speed (knots) -- will the stormy trend continue? Give a location.


You can now enter this contest at the following location:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=1

(or enter directly here in the thread)


With the New Year holiday and form issues, I will extend the deadline one day so that all entries made before 0300h Friday 3 Jan will be penalty free and from then on, 5% per 8h will apply for catch-up to regular schedule. Any max gust achieved before you enter and matched by your guess will then limit your bonus score to 5/10 max, applies starting 04z 3rd.

Good luck.

Melanoma

IMT 5.9
MAX 15.1
MIN -7.2
PRC 101.3
SUN 103
Maximum gust speed (knots) 78 Malin head

200motels

Done

dasa29

Done

Bsal

Done.

Tae laidir

Done.
Happy New Year to all.

omicron

Done!

Jpmarn

Done

dacogawa

Done

homolumo

done

okla

Done.

DOCARCH

Done.

John mac

Done
Thought i was too late. :)

~~(a tad breezy out there this evening)

talkabout

done

Joe Public

Done

Harps

Done

FrDougalMcguire

Current data for Charlestown Co. Mayo
02 January 2014 21:45:21

Temperature (°C):
Current 6.1
Trend (per hour) 0
Average today 4.7
Wind chill 2.0
Heat Index 6.1
Dew Point 5.8
Rel Humidity 98%

Wind (km/h):
Current Gust 27.0 S
Average Speed 24.5 S

Rainfall (mm):
Current rate 1.8
Last hour 0.0
Total today 6.1
Total yesterday 8.6
Total this month 14.7
Total this year 14.7

Pressure (mb):
Current 970.0
Trend (per hour) -1.7



Oops! Wrong thread! Sorry, reposted in current conditions

Rikand

Done

rameire

done,

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all.

Especially to M.T. Cranium for your constant work and interaction on boards.

Here's to a year full of normal and aby-normal weather.

dacogawa

FrDougalMcguire wrote: »

Current data for Charlestown Co. Mayo
02 January 2014 21:45:21

Temperature (°C):
Current 6.1
Trend (per hour) 0
Average today 4.7
Wind chill 2.0
Heat Index 6.1
Dew Point 5.8
Rel Humidity 98%

Wind (km/h):
Current Gust 27.0 S
Average Speed 24.5 S

Rainfall (mm):
Current rate 1.8
Last hour 0.0
Total today 6.1
Total yesterday 8.6
Total this month 14.7
Total this year 14.7

Pressure (mb):
Current 970.0
Trend (per hour) -1.7

Wrong thread there Dougal...

jd

Done

nilhg

done

delw

done

traecy1

Done.

Danno

4.2c, 13.7c, -8.9c, 120%, 110%, 76kt Malin Head.

M.T. Cranium

Ah good, now Con Sensus has a serious challenge.

Saving anyone the trouble of reading all of post #1, there's an entry form there (but in this thread is okay too) and I postponed the usual deadline by one day so penalties only start tonight at 0300h. If you wait to see what the max gust is and enter after 0300, you'll be playing off 5/10 for the bonus unless you go higher than what is already known.

Good luck and ignore ppp in the emtry form, somebody is still adjusting to the new year apparently.

I am however MMMMTTTTCCCC in case that wasn't oblivious.

Melanoma

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Ah good, now Con Sensus has a serious challenge.

Saving anyone the trouble of reading all of post #1, there's an entry form there (but in this thread is okay too) and I postponed the usual deadline by one day so penalties only start tonight at 0300h. If you wait to see what the max gust is and enter after 0300, you'll be playing off 5/10 for the bonus unless you go higher than what is already known.

Good luck and ignore ppp in the emtry form, somebody is still adjusting to the new year apparently.

I am however MMMMTTTTCCCC in case that wasn't oblivious.

I'm paid to lead not to read!! No but serious doubts about my "prediction" more of a wild guess that more of the same but then change!

SeaFields

Crap! Forgot about it. Anyway, done!

M.T. Cranium

January 2014 forecasts
____________________________________________________


Forecaster _____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ Max gust (kts)

---

seafields ___ (-10%) ____ 6.5 _ 13.5 _ -2.3 _ 200 _ 050 _ 65 Val
rikand ________________ 6.2 _ 13.5 _ -4.5 _ 125 _ 080 _ 80 Mac
kindredspirit ___________ 6.2 _ 13.2 _ -4.7 _ 121 _ 091 _ 71 Mal
omicron _______________ 6.0 _ 13.0 _ -4.5 _ 120 _ 080 _ 72 Mac
Tae laidir ______________ 6.0 _ 11.6 _ -6.9 _ 120 _ 110 _ 66 Mac
melanoma _____________ 5.9 _ 15.1 _ -7.2 _ 101 _ 103 _ 78 Mal
DOCARCH _____________ 5.9 _ 12.9 _ -5.8 _ 115 _ 095 _ 76 Bel
homolumo _____________ 5.9 _ 12.1 _ -4.5 _ 120 _ 081 _ 75 Bel
nilhg _________________ 5.9 _ 11.2 _ -4.1 _ 135 _ 095 _ 75 Bel
mickger844posts ________ 5.8 _ 13.9 _ -3.1 _ 124 _ 080 _ 71 Bel
pauldry _______________ 5.8 _ 13.8 _ -6.0 _ 121 _ 098 _ 71 Mac
Rameire_______________ 5.7 _ 12.5 _ -5.5 _ 095 _ 102 _ 72 Mac
waterways_____________ 5.6 _ 13.2 _ -6.1 _ 133 _ 079 _ 79 Bel
john mac ______________ 5.6 _ 13.1 _ -5.6 _ 120 _ 098 _ 73 Mac
Bsal __________________ 5.5 _ 12.9 _ -4.2 _ 125 _ 088 _ 82 Roc

Con Sensus ____________ 5.5 _ 13.0 _ -5.4 _ 120 _ 090 _ 75 Bel

200motels _____________ 5.5 _ 12.2 _ -5.8 _ 145 _ 075 _ 60 Mal
Jpmarn________________ 5.4 _ 14.0 _ -8.2 _ 110 _ 105 _ 75 Mac
talkabout ______________ 5.4 _ 13.5 _ -5.8 _ 100 _ 090 _ 73 Mal
traecy.1 _______________ 5.4 _ 12.8 _ -5.5 _ 125 _ 095 _ 75 Bel
harps _________________ 5.1 _ 13.1 _ -5.6 _ 110 _ 090 _ 77 Bel
jd____________________ 5.1 _ 12.8 _ -5.4 _ 129 _ 094 _ 82 Bel
okla __________________ 5.1 _ 12.6 _ -5.2 _ 110 _ 090 _ 72 Bel
M.T. Cranium___________ 5.0 _ 13.3 _ -5.5 _ 130 _ 105 _ 91 Mac
dacogawa______________ 5.0 _ 12.0 _ -7.9 _ 142 _ 098 _ 82 Mac
Joe Public______________ 4.9 _ 12.9 _ -4.9 _ 110 _ 090 _ 79 Bel
delw __________________ 4.9 _ 12.0 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 089 _ 65 She
dasa29________________ 4.9 _ 12.0 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 _ 65 Mac
danno_________________ 4.2 _ 13.7 _ -8.9 _ 120 _ 110 _ 76 Mal
octo __________________ 3.8 _ 13.5 _ -2.0 _ 105 _ 100 _ 65 Mal

_____________________________________________

The group consensus is for a rather mild, wet and dull month, strongest winds either Belmullet or Mace Head.

Good luck, check your entry.

M.T. Cranium

After one week or seven days of January we have these values:

IMT at 6.2

MAX at 13.2 (Shannon, 5th)

MIN to be determined

PRC 170%

SUN 103%

bonus 72 kts Mace Head on 3rd

M.T. Cranium

Updates after 2 weeks or 14 days ...

IMT at 5.3

MAX at 13.2 (Shannon, 5th)

MIN at -3.2 (Moorepark, 14th)

PRC 146%

SUN 121%

bonus still 72 kts Mace Head on 3rd