2014 Champion Hurdle

ste2010

tomaussie wrote: »

Thanks Jim. This is the kind of opinion I was looking for.

I'm not happy to hear it as I really want to back OC and quite heavily too. Damn. Don't know what to do now. Hopefully somebody can put up a good counter argument to yours.

ps, go Ade !!!! What a spot by the way.

Honestly of all the races on at the festival the champion is not the one to be going in heavy...faugheen is one I'll be going in heavy on. Last instalment ew another

ste2010

tomaussie wrote: »

Yeah Ste but it's the jockey I was looking for an opinion on. I'm already convinced by the horse and will either back it or have no bet.

He's another young jockey with some learning curves ahead of him. The instructions won't matter as much in the champion as I've no doubt whatever way you look at it something is going to set a blistering pace as its the only way hurricane fly will be beaten. I think we're the jockey might lack awareness is in tactical races, this won't be particularly tactical in that everyone knows the story of the race hypothetically. It's about where the horses sit behind. I honestly wouldn't worry about it if your into
Our Conor. He's on my shortlist but so is Annie power, the new one and un de sceaux. It's difficult race to predict I wouldn't be going mad on
It

tomaussie

Perfect Ste. Exactly what I wanted to hear. That's me going in Bollock deep.

Bluefox21

You're just doing the exact opposite of what he said!

There's better videos out there but this is nice and short

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOc5prK35oQ

I think it's fair to say Danny couldn't have given him a better ride, Ruby hit the last fence and reeled him in without even having to shake him up too much!!!

Harry Angstrom

tomaussie wrote: »

Perfect Ste. Exactly what I wanted to hear. That's me going in Bollock deep.

The stats are completely against Our Conor. The Sun Alliance Hurdle/Neptune has proven to be the best yardstick in recent years for finding the following season's Champion Hurdle horse, as far as novices/juveniles are concerned. I'll be very surprised if Our Conor finishes in front of The New One.

prettyboy81

Tic Toc Tic Toc until just after 8 to see if UDS runs today. Really hoping he does good card down for Gowran today.

ste2010

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

The stats are completely against Our Conor. The Sun Alliance Hurdle/Neptune has proven to be the best yardstick in recent years for finding the following season's Champion Hurdle horse, as far as novices/juveniles are concerned. I'll be very surprised if Our Conor finishes in front of The New One.

The most important stat of all. Juveniles and novices winning the champion the season after novice/juvenile running. Katchit was the last. Brave inca I think was the one before so the stats are against all of them. But it's pretty obvious this year that stat will
More than likely be broken.

Bluefox21

ste2010 wrote: »

The most important stat of all. Juveniles and novices winning the champion the season after novice/juvenile running. Katchit was the last. Brave inca I think was the one before so the stats are against all of them. But it's pretty obvious this year that stat will
More than likely be broken.

How though? See my previous post (last page). 'It's pretty obvious that......' How is it pretty obvious? What has he done this year to suggest that it is pretty obvious!? It is pure speculation that he will improve to the level required to beat the three favourites. At this point you are just misleading people like tomaussie into betting on something they clearly don't really know that much about!

tomaussie

Bluefox21 wrote: »

How though? See my previous post (last page). 'It's pretty obvious that......' How is it pretty obvious? What has he done this year to suggest that it is pretty obvious!? It is pure speculation that he will improve to the level required to beat the three favourites. At this point you are just misleading people like tomaussie into betting on something they clearly don't really know that much about!

Not true. I backed OC last year and want to back him again this year.

I was looking for opinions on the abilities of the jockey as he has received some heat on this forum recently and I don't see enough to judge him myself.

I'll be backing OC or having no bet in the race. Jimjam and Ste gave me their opinions on the jockey. That's what I was looking for. Feel free to add your opinion on the jockey dude.

I have enough of an eye for a horse myself but I only get to see a few meetings a year these days.

yaboya1

ste2010 wrote: »

The most important stat of all. Juveniles and novices winning the champion the season after novice/juvenile running. Katchit was the last. Brave inca I think was the one before so the stats are against all of them. But it's pretty obvious this year that stat will
More than likely be broken.

Brave Inca was only third the year after he won the Supreme. The last winner of that race to follow up was Bula in 1971!

mulbot

ste2010 wrote: »

The most important stat of all. Juveniles and novices winning the champion the season after novice/juvenile running. Katchit was the last. Brave inca I think was the one before so the stats are against all of them. But it's pretty obvious this year that stat will
More than likely be broken.

hardy eustace won a novice race in 03 before goin on to win the next 2 CH races,no reason our conor cant break that stat too

Malarkey121

Great to see the video of Dessie Hughes yard on the morning line, like the remarks from Dessie also, I am biased but the horse OC looked a picture and much stronger.

bring it on!

jimjamcos

Malarkey121 wrote: »

Great to see the video of Dessie Hughes yard on the morning line, like the remarks from Dessie also, I am biased but the horse OC looked a picture and much stronger.

bring it on!

I thought the horse himself looked happier with the jock on his back too! :P

Dessie must stand there every morning thinking "God, I wish that lad was still on him".

Bluefox21

tomaussie wrote: »

Not true. I backed OC last year and want to back him again this year.

I was looking for opinions on the abilities of the jockey as he has received some heat on this forum recently and I don't see enough to judge him myself.

I'll be backing OC or having no bet in the race. Jimjam and Ste gave me their opinions on the jockey. That's what I was looking for. Feel free to add your opinion on the jockey dude.

I have enough of an eye for a horse myself but I only get to see a few meetings a year these days.

Sorry man I just get overly defensive when it comes to Hurricane Fly! Like I said, my own personal opinion is that the jockey will make a big difference. Our Conor is a fantastic horse but very competitive race and not really one to be lumping on.

Cannot wait for this race - here's hoping all five are neck and neck at the bottom of the hill!

BumperD

Lets hope they are neck and neck jumping the last

RichieLawlor

The might be neck and neck jumping the last but they will all be 4 lengths behind The New One crossing the line

ste2010

Bluefox21 wrote: »

How though? See my previous post (last page). 'It's pretty obvious that......' How is it pretty obvious? What has he done this year to suggest that it is pretty obvious!? It is pure speculation that he will improve to the level required to beat the three favourites. At this point you are just misleading people like tomaussie into betting on something they clearly don't really know that much about!

Your missing the point..I'm not referring to our conor. I'm referring to any juvenile or novice who contends the champion hurdle the following season. The stat will be broken this march

ste2010

mulbot wrote: »

hardy eustace won a novice race in 03 before goin on to win the next 2 CH races,no reason our conor cant break that stat too

I'm not saying he won't...I'm saying the stat will be broken because of the number of horses out of juvenile an novice last season...IF hurricane fly loses that is

hucklebuck

Stats are for twats in bowler hats.

12 of the last 12 winners have a a vowel in their name, zxfgyhgf won it 13 years ago.

7 of the last 7 winners had previously ran on a racecourse.

13 of the last 14 winners had male jockeys on board.

hucklebuck

ste2010 wrote: »

I'm not saying he won't...I'm saying the stat will be broken because of the number of horses out of juvenile an novice last season...IF hurricane fly loses that is

Montjeu's have a terrible record at Cheltenham, yawnnnnn!

mulbot

ste2010 wrote: »

I'm not saying he won't...I'm saying the stat will be broken because of the number of horses out of juvenile an novice last season...IF hurricane fly loses that is

oh it will be a novice all right i agree,wud be nice for HF to win,just dont see it happening for him this time around

ste2010

As Duncan bannatyne says "I'm out"

Crash Bang Wall

Hi,

I dont want to start a new thread as my query doesnt warrant it, and I dont want to derail this one either....Im just looking for opinions on 4 Cheltenhm bets

Entering a sports predictions comp, and 4 Qs relate to Cheltenham, and Im just looking for one or 2 opinions on what Im predicting. Not really a big horse racing gambler so any ideas/alternatives welcome.

Top Trainer......Willie Mullins
Top Jockey.......Ruby
Gold Cup..........Bobs Worth
Champion Hurdle...Our Conor

Thanks

mulbot

wonder after seeing UDS just win will we get "news" in a week or two of HF scoping badly and missing cheltenham!!!

carpothepunk

Don't be absolutely ridiculous

mulbot

carpothepunk wrote: »

Don't be absolutely ridiculous

:D:D,

UrbanSea

Crash Bang Wall wrote: »

Hi,

I dont want to start a new thread as my query doesnt warrant it, and I dont want to derail this one either....Im just looking for opinions on 4 Cheltenhm bets

Entering a sports predictions comp, and 4 Qs relate to Cheltenham, and Im just looking for one or 2 opinions on what Im predicting. Not really a big horse racing gambler so any ideas/alternatives welcome.

Top Trainer......Willie Mullins
Top Jockey.......Ruby
Gold Cup..........Bobs Worth
Champion Hurdle...Our Conor

Thanks

All fairly solid. First two are odds on, Bob's Worth around 2/1 and Our Conor has a very good chance 5/1.

Crash Bang Wall

UrbanSea wrote: »

All fairly solid. First two are odds on, Bob's Worth around 2/1 and Our Conor has a very good chance 5/1.

Thnks man.....would they be your choices?

jimjamcos

Crash Bang Wall wrote: »

Thnks man.....would they be your choices?

All your choices are solid. Ruby and Willie look certs, CH is very hard to call but OC should go close and Last Instalment could be worth considering as an alternative to BW. BW the more solid option though.

mulbot

Crash Bang Wall wrote: »

Thnks man.....would they be your choices?

our conor and bobs worth-good value there,-does anyone think there might be better value for top jock other than ruby(no nicholls horses,no chase wins since 2009) coupled with the fact mullins chase record there isn't great(2 wins in last 3 years) obviously they have the hurdle horses but maybe there some value elsewhere

yaboya1

Barry Geraghty will always have decent rides and pick up good spares where Henderson hasn't got anything. Also a great jockey around Cheltenham. Ruby will be hard to beat though.

kiers47

With Venetias stable in scintillating form and her sure to pick up a couple of the handicaps there would probably be worse bets than Aidan Coleman at 66/1.

Couldn't see past ruby really but surely there are better 4/7 shots to be found on a normal week

mulbot

kiers47 wrote: »

With Venetias stable in scintillating form and her sure to pick up a couple of the handicaps there would probably be worse bets than Aidan Coleman at 66/1.

Couldn't see past ruby really but surely there are better 4/7 shots to be found on a normal week

ah yea its ruby's really,coleman looks good,should be winning the byrne group plate on niceonefrankie

RichieLawlor

Just caught up on the racing, I'm my opinion that thing that won at Gowran today should be 50/1 to make all in a champion hurdle

Crash Bang Wall

Thanks lads....much appreciated

Think I will go with my original choices

Now to find winners for the Golf Majors, Darts, F1, GAA, Premier League, FA Cup, World Cup and a few others

Cheers again

jimjamcos

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Just caught up on the racing, I'm my opinion that thing that won at Gowran today should be 50/1 to make all in a champion hurdle

That's some observation but is it based on any real evidence as of yet? Have absolutely no problem with people cribbing his current price, given he's beaten little, but fail to understand how people can confidently predict the ceiling of his potential. Fact is, nobody knows if he's good enough or not. What we do know is that he's beaten little but done so in incredible style and, as acknowledged by Ruby, has the ability to set a relentless gallop without needing a breather.

Odds are probably against him being a superstar good enough to lead a CH from start to finish, but until he faces a proper test, predictions one way or the other are pointless. Whether a backer or a layer, it's an educated guess at best at this stage.

Hulk Hands

All odds are an educated guess. A 50/1 shot will still win 2% of the time. I dont think anyone is saying he's limited or can't win, it's just people giving a more realistic probability that an untested and very lightly raced horse will make all against potentially the strongest CH field of all time. So while we cant definitively say he has no chance, we can crab the probability of winning that the poorhouse prices of 8/1-12/1 suggest

Harry Angstrom

Somehow I doubt Ruby will have any sleepless nights about having to pick Hurricane Fly over Un De Sceaux for the Champion.

hucklebuck

ste2010 wrote: »

As Duncan bannatyne says "I'm out"

.. of the closet

hucklebuck

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Just caught up on the racing, I'm my opinion that thing that won at Gowran today should be 50/1 to make all in a champion hurdle

How much will you lay me at that price?

ste2010

hucklebuck wrote: »

.. of the closet

..Of your mams house as your dad has finally left to go to work...playtime

hucklebuck

ste2010 wrote: »

..Of your mams house as your dad has finally left to go to work...playtime

How did you know my ma was a tranny, you are one lucky gay

RichieLawlor

hucklebuck wrote: »

How much will you lay me at that price?

Don't be so stupid, because I think a horse should be a certain price doesn't mean I will lay him at that price when I don't have to.

UDS is a pacemaker if he turns up at all

mulbot

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Don't be so stupid, because I think a horse should be a certain price doesn't mean I will lay him at that price when I don't have to.

UDS is a pacemaker if he turns up at all

pacemaker for who?

jimjamcos

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Don't be so stupid, because I think a horse should be a certain price doesn't mean I will lay him at that price when I don't have to.

UDS is a pacemaker if he turns up at all

Whether that proves to be the case or not, you have zero proof at this stage. Winning distances, visual impressions, Ruby's comments all suggest he's a an unknown and very likely a future Gr1 winner.

"What I love about this horse is the way he behaves in the middle of a race. He just sustains a relentless gallop and then is able to keep it up it right to the line. Truth to tell, I just don't have a clue as to how good he is."

"How far can he go? I just don't know. But here's the thing, I'm of the opinion Un De Sceaux will manage to stay any trip."

"If he ran in a Champion Hurdle he wouldn't be the type to be giving fifteen (lengths) to out of the gate."

You seem to know more about the horse than his jockey which is quite an achievement. I'm pretty confident UDS will prove much, much more than a pacesetter and comprehensively prove you wrong.

RichieLawlor

mulbot wrote: »

pacemaker for who?

He won't run, but either way he would be swamped by most if not all the top 4.

jimjamcos wrote: »

Whether that proves to be the case or not, you have zero proof at this stage. Winning distances, visual impressions, Ruby's comments all suggest he's a an unknown and very likely a future Gr1 winner.





You seem to know more about the horse than his jockey which is quite an achievement. I'm pretty confident UDS will prove much, much more than a pacesetter and comprehensively prove you wrong.

Lol, what do you expect Ruby to say. Uh actually he's not very good, he just beats trees'

mulbot

he wont run once HF stays in the race-and if he did run HF wud end up a badly beaten horse,so wud MTOY

jimjamcos

RichieLawlor wrote: »

He won't run, but either way he would be swamped by most if not all the top 4.




Lol, what do you expect Ruby to say. Uh actually he's not very good, he just beats trees'

Well seeing as it'd be in Ruby's interests to play down merits of horse in this case and not have him running in CH, talking about him positively regarding CH is hardly insignificant. Anyway, I always find Ruby (like his aul buck) fairly honest in his assessment of Willies's horses (anyone who's watched recent RUK report will acknowledge this). It's just when it comes to horses plans that he isn't forthcoming.

jimjamcos

mulbot wrote: »

he wont run once HF stays in the race-and if he did run HF wud end up a badly beaten horse,so wud MTOY

You're neglecting a key stakeholder. Owners.

RichieLawlor

Make no mistake, Mullins, and Ruby for that matter doesn't care about sentiment, if he knew that UDS was better than Hurricane Fly then do you think he would take a chance on a 10 years old who isn't as good as one in his yard.

Don't be so ridiculous