Football Championship 2014

harpsman

flasher0030 wrote: »

It's early stages yet, but before the Championship started I predicted Monaghan to get to the semis. They have the skill, the bit of guile, and they've added that bit of cynicism needed to progress (not that I'm condoning it or anything).

Your statement in relation to Mayo and Donegal is on the basis that they are playing below par, and will raise their game when needed. To be honest, I do not think that is the case. Being a Mayoman, I would love if Mayo could do so. But based on what Mayo have produced in the past 5 months, I don't think it's there. Not so sure about Donegal. Bit unpredictable.

Added that bit of cynicism? Added?? Monaghan have been probably the most cynical team in Ireland for as long as Ive been watching football. But I certainly agree that they ll win ulster and play Dublin in semi-could beat em too if everything goes their way.

Gary Neville

Next week-end should shed a little light on things. We'll have Munster's Big Two out and should see what level they are at. James O Donoghue's absence will hinder Kerry and the dual thing has affected Cork's prep but we'll see the squad strength. We'll have to wait for the Munster Final to get a better picture.

Mayo are still struggling to find form but some think that's preferable to peaking too soon. It's obviously uncertain that they can turn it on at the business end but with their squad strength and experience, they'll be very hard to defeat before Sept.

Dublin showed v Laois that they will have a relatively easy passage through Leinster.

As usual, Ulster is most difficult to call. Monaghan got the Tyrone Monkey off their back and will test anyone. Looking very like a Monaghan v Donegal Ulster Final and that's a 50/50 game IMO. Tyrone will have a good run through the qualifiers but with Coney and Ronan O Neill still lacking consistency - they are a bit off AI standard.

Still looking likes it's between Dublin, Mayo, Cork, Donegal and Kerry. Monaghan, perhaps, should be included and they could well take out any of the latter 3 but whilst their organisation and defensive structure is top class, they have yet to show that they have the quality forwards to compete in Aug/Sept.

shrewdness

Gary Neville wrote: »

Still looking likes it's between Dublin, Mayo, Cork, Donegal and Kerry. Monaghan, perhaps, should be included and they could well take out any of the latter 3 but whilst their organisation and defensive structure is top class, they have yet to show that they have the quality forwards to compete in Aug/Sept.

Don't see why Monaghan wouldn't be included if Donegal are. Neither will be winning Sam though, possible semi-finalists at most imo.

KevIRL

3 goals scored in the final few mins between Derry and Longford, Longford ahead by a goal

KevIRL

KevIRL wrote: »

3 goals scored in the final few mins between Derry and Longford, Longford ahead by a goal

Longford win by 2 points, great win for them

Slattsy

Great win, fair play to the Longford lads, doubt anyone seen that coming.

Hammer Archer

Once again Derry flatter to deceive. Make it all the way to the league final yet lose their two championship games at home.
If ever proof was needed that the league isn't necessarily a good barometer come the championship, this is it. Longford finished second from bottom in Division 3 this season.

Dirty Dingus McGee

Derry were overrated they have only one good forward and in the last 10 years they always seem to play reasonably well in the league without doing much in the championship.

le la rat

Didn't give Longford any chance. Great win.

Boom__Boom

Hammer Archer wrote: »

Once again Derry flatter to deceive. Make it all the way to the league final yet lose their two championship games at home.
If ever proof was needed that the league isn't necessarily a good barometer come the championship, this is it. Longford finished second from bottom in Division 3 this season.

Last year in the Championship the teams that finished higher in the league won 43 out of 58 games - 74% of the time.

In the 15 games where the lower ranked team won in the Championship the gap in positions in the league was 1 place 5 times, 2 places 1 time, 3 places 3 times, 5 places 1 time, 7 places 1 time, 8 places 1 times, 10 places 2 and 12 places once.

Basically this looks like a massive exception to the general rule. It's also not exactly a huge surprise that Derry are the victims as they are a team who are notorious for performing well in the league and performing poorly in the Championship.

Overall a team's league position is a pretty good guide; there are obviously going to be exceptions and this is one of those cases.

theoneeyedman

Wow....didn't see that one coming. Wexford beat Longford and could have hammered them if they took their goal chances in particular. Don't know where the improvement came from in Longford so 1 assumes this was a monumental fcuk up on derry behalf.

KevIRL

Tipp a goal ahead of Cork 10 mins into second half :eek:

dats_right

Hammer Archer wrote: »

If ever proof was needed that the league isn't necessarily a good barometer come the championship, this is it.

Don't agree with this at all. Maybe its wishful thinking on the part of a royal, but I can assure you that your boys won't be playing at the business end of the championship. There will always be the odd upset in the Championship and particularly in the qualifiers but overall in the last ten years or so the league has been an excellent barometer or gauge of teams for the championship. For example, 3 of the 4 teams who were league semi-finalists last year were also semi finalists in the All-Ireland. When was the last time a team from outside the top division won Sam?

It is worth remembering that Derry were playing in a poor enough division 2 last year with mickey mouse teams like Longford, Wexford, Galway, Meath (oh wait they were in Div. 3!!). Yes, Derry had a good league campaign this year, including defeating an understrength dubs, but they were pummelled by them in the final and that would have let them know exactly where they are at and you don't bounce back from a humiliating hammering like that overnight.

KevIRL

Cork rally late to win it, very lucky though, but for Tipp wides they'd be in the qualifiers

Aidan Walsh saves the day. Footballer and hurler of the year double?

Nidgeweasel

Feel for Derry and McIvor.

This will be a tough one for them.

harpsman

Nidgeweasel wrote: »

Feel for Derry and McIvor.

This will be a tough one for them.

Feel sorry for McIver. Not too sorry for the players-theyre perennial under achievers.

Im sure he ll get stick over the Eoin Bradley situation, even though he was right.

Miccoli

McIver seemed to make a few wrong calls today though.

Hammer Archer

Boom__Boom wrote: »

Last year in the Championship the teams that finished higher in the league won 43 out of 58 games - 74% of the time.

In the 15 games where the lower ranked team won in the Championship the gap in positions in the league was 1 place 5 times, 2 places 1 time, 3 places 3 times, 5 places 1 time, 7 places 1 time, 8 places 1 times, 10 places 2 and 12 places once.

Basically this looks like a massive exception to the general rule. It's also not exactly a huge surprise that Derry are the victims as they are a team who are notorious for performing well in the league and performing poorly in the Championship.

Overall a team's league position is a pretty good guide; there are obviously going to be exceptions and this is one of those cases.

That's true. Just to clarify, I don't mean to say that league form has no bearing on championship performance. The teams that are consistently up there in the league will almost always do well in the championship (although Cork should have come a cropper yesterday). And the teams that are mostly down the lower reaches of the league (the likes of Carlow, London, Waterford etc.) are hardly ever going to pull off an upset against bigger teams.

But in between, there are teams that can and do pull off upsets against teams in higher league positions than themselves. This year already, we've seen Antrim beat Fermanagh, Louth beat Westmeath and Monaghan beat Tyrone to name but three. Just meant to point out that spending a league season playing higher quality opposition than your championship opponents isn't necessarily the be all and end all.

dats_right wrote: »

Don't agree with this at all. Maybe its wishful thinking on the part of a royal, but I can assure you that your boys won't be playing at the business end of the championship.

OK. I make a post concerning Longford beating Derry away from home and you bring up Meath. That makes no sense whatsoever. Not even going to bother replying to the rest of your post as you're probably going to bring it back to the county that I support for some reason.

Dirty Dingus McGee

HT

Antrim 0-7 Donegal 0-7

Antrim playing well an putting it up to Donegal .Donegal have been a bit wasteful in attack and you fancy them to up their game and pull away in the second half.

Dirty Dingus McGee

47 mins

Donegal 2-11 Antrim 0-8

Game over

djPSB

O Connor and Mc Nealish look excellent for Donegal.

Fireball07

Good 2nd half performance from Donegal, very clinical. O'Connor scored possibly goal of the season too to really kill it off, looks a super player.

Nidgeweasel

The elephant in the room of course is the Antrim Physio.

RGM

Nidgeweasel wrote: »

The elephant in the room of course is the Antrim Physio.

blowitupref

Kerry 1-7 Clare 1-8 (HT)

Fr Tod Umptious

blowitupref wrote: »

Kerry 1-7 Clare 1-8 (HT)

Clare the better team too by all accounts.

Kerry will probably win it, but its a sign of how they will struggle this year

westernfrenzy

That's a bit of a surprise. First Cork almost losing to Tipperary last night and Kerry losing to Clare at half time. Still think Kerry will win in the end though.

blowitupref

Longford's win against Derry last night was a prime example that shocks still happen. Have to give credit to the div 3/4 sides who are very competitive against their div 1 opponents this summer. Only last year Kevin McStay was calling for intermediate championship for these "weaker" counties.

Lemlin

Hammer Archer wrote: »

OK. I make a post concerning Longford beating Derry away from home and you bring up Meath. That makes no sense whatsoever. Not even going to bother replying to the rest of your post as you're probably going to bring it back to the county that I support for some reason.

It's a problem on this forum. People get very tit-for-tat unfortunately when you give your opinion on a team.

blowitupref wrote: »

Longford's win against Derry last night was a prime example that shocks still happen. Have to give credit to the div 3/4 sides who are very competitive against their div 1 opponents this summer. Only last year Kevin McStay was calling for intermediate championship for these "weaker" counties.

Cavan went to the last 8 last year and were in Division 3.

blowitupref

FT Clare 1-13 Kerry 1-17

blowitupref

Lemlin wrote: »

Cavan went to the last 8 last year and were in Division 3.

Yes i know and bet Derry away along the way. Monaghan played out of div 3 last year and won Ulster. Whenever a side get hammered like Carlow last week there will be calls for secondary competition yet when div3/4 sides are competitive it seems to be ignored.

Fr Tod Umptious

Hammer Archer wrote: »

Once again Derry flatter to deceive. Make it all the way to the league final yet lose their two championship games at home.
If ever proof was needed that the league isn't necessarily a good barometer come the championship, this is it. Longford finished second from bottom in Division 3 this season.

That is very true
Surprisingly good league form is often a poor indicator of championship readiness.
Cork struggled on Saturday and Derry are already out of the championship.
I think it has a lot to do with a rebuilding team playing a lot of their probable championship starters during the league while other teams are still experimenting or resting established players. This gives a false impression of how good teams actually are.
On the flip side poor league form is often an indicator of problems, take Donegal in 2013 for example, you cannot dismiss poor league form on the fact that 'it's only the league'.
On another note the A side of the qualifiers has now become much weaker with the exit of Derry, giving a easy enough passage for the Munster and Connaught losers into the Quarter Finals v the Munster and Connaught winners

harpsman

Lemlin wrote: »

It's a problem on this forum. People get very tit-for-tat unfortunately when you give your opinion on a team.




Cavan went to the last 8 last year and were in Division 3.

They didnt beat much along the way though, and were beaten after 10 minutes by a kerry team in 3rd gear.

Gary Neville

Donegal are progessing away quietly without setting the world on fire - the panel looks stronger but McBrearty and McFadden have yet to impress and you'd expect that they must contribute against the better sides. Hard to call Ulster now but Donegal would be the fancy.

Cork and Kerry were very poor at the week-end but look good for QF and 1 for the Semis.

Galway's U21's are finally coming through but won't have enough experience for Mayo.

Still looks like Dublin v Mayo final

harpsman

djPSB wrote: »

O Connor and Mc Nealish look excellent for Donegal.

Thinks its Mc Niallais-no sh at end. Hes from Gweedore, not Amsterdam! Sounds like Ger Cannings been listenin to a few of the Newstalk tools and started with the over pronunciation of names.

Lemlin

harpsman wrote: »

They didnt beat much along the way though, and were beaten after 10 minutes by a kerry team in 3rd gear.

They beat Armagh (Division 2), Fermanagh x 2 (Division 3), Derry (Division 2, promoted to Division 1) and London (Division 4). They also only lost to Monaghan by a point.

Teams have hard far easier runs than that to the last 8. Kildare for example went to the last 4 in 2010 beating Antrim, Leitrim, Derry, Monaghan and Meath.

Boom__Boom

On Derry v Longford.

Derry were missing 6 players who started against Donegal and had another black-carded ; Longford had one of those days when a huge proportion of their shots from distance went over (9 different scorers from play)

Derry very much had an off day while pretty much everything went right for Longford and still there was only 2 points in it.

So far this season (even with the upsets like this game and Fermanagh Antrim) the higher ranked team in the league has won 73% of the time - 19 out of 26 results.

You can't say that because team A finished higher than team B in the league they are automatically going to win, but as a general rule it's a very good place to start.

Lemlin

Boom__Boom wrote: »

On Derry v Longford.

Derry were missing 6 players who started against Donegal and had another black-carded ; Longford had one of those days when a huge proportion of their shots from distance went over (9 different scorers from play)

Derry very much had an off day while pretty much everything went right for Longford and still there was only 2 points in it.

So far this season (even with the upsets like this game and Fermanagh Antrim) the higher ranked team in the league has won 73% of the time - 19 out of 26 results.

You can't say that because team A finished higher than team B in the league they are automatically going to win, but as a general rule it's a very good place to start.

Had Derry a high amount of injuries or did lads go abroad?

I hear Westmeath have lost a few lads to America (unconfirmed, just heard it as word of mouth ahead of Cavan's game vs them). It seems to be becoming a bigger and bigger issue. There aren't many Summer jobs available to keep lads at home anymore.

Boom__Boom

Lemlin wrote: »

Had Derry a high amount of injuries or did lads go abroad?

I hear Westmeath have lost a few lads to America (unconfirmed, just heard it as word of mouth ahead of Cavan's game vs them). It seems to be becoming a bigger and bigger issue. There aren't many Summer jobs available to keep lads at home anymore.

Only 1 gone to the States ; the other 5 injuries with club games being blamed for the injuries.

Agree about the lack of jobs and young lads going to the States being an issue. There's 4 lads gone from Kerry who would be on the panel or very near it anyway. 1 gone permanently is Brian McGuire who would definitely be on the panel. The 3 others gone for the summer are Cox, Culhane and Walsh - all are youngish and have featured in the league for Kerry and would be very much in the mix in the terms of making the panel, especially in the coming years.

Lads going to the States for the summer is a big issue for some clubs as well - you'd almost be of the mind that it suits some in the GAA to keep the fixture confusion/mess in place during the summer months as it means losing lads to the US isnt as painful.

Lemlin

Boom__Boom wrote: »

Only 1 gone to the States ; the other 5 injuries with club games being blamed for the injuries.

Agree about the lack of jobs and young lads going to the States being an issue. There's 4 lads gone from Kerry who would be on the panel or very near it anyway. 1 gone permanently is Brian McGuire who would definitely be on the panel. The 3 others gone for the summer are Cox, Culhane and Walsh - all are youngish and have featured in the league for Kerry and would be very much in the mix in the terms of making the panel, especially in the coming years.

Lads going to the States for the summer is a big issue for some clubs as well - you'd almost be of the mind that it suits some in the GAA to keep the fixture confusion/mess in place during the summer months as it means losing lads to the US isnt as painful.

Cavan have lost two to the States, McVeety and Clarke, and Dunne to injury. We'll also have Feargal Flanagan suspended so we're missing four starters.

fullstop

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

On the flip side poor league form is often an indicator of problems, take Donegal in 2013 for example, you cannot dismiss poor league form on the fact that 'it's only the league'.

People keep trotting this out, yet ignore the fact that Donegal were very poor in the league in 2012 as well and only avoided relegation with a win on the last day. Didn't do much harm for the rest of the year.

Fr Tod Umptious

fullstop wrote: »

People keep trotting this out, yet ignore the fact that Donegal were very poor in the league in 2012 as well and only avoided relegation with a win on the last day. Didn't do much harm for the rest of the year.

Its not a hard and fast rule, there are exceptions obviously.

I think overachieving in the league, as Derry and Cork did this year, Kildare did last year, Mayo did in 2010 etc is certainly a poor barometer for champion form.

iDave

Just looking at this now and who could get who.
From what I see Con and Mun are pegged to the A side while Lein and Uls are pegged to the B side.

So Cork are entering the Rd 4 A side. I'd hazard a guess they will be joined by Galway unless they find something against Mayo we don't know they had.
So looking at the 3A draw its Sligo/Limerick and Laois/Tipp. Neither easy to call.
I would assume Cork have enough to get by whoever they get. They cant get Kerry again the QF so we're looking at a Mayo/Cork QF.
Galway are a little harder to predict and their qualifier form is atrocious. Laois would certainly fancy their chances if they got them. If we assume Galway get their act together though we are looking at a Kerry/Galway QF.

Ok so B side and we have to find 2 semi finalists from Dublin, Meath, Monaghan, Donegal, Tyrone, Down, Armagh, Cavan and Kildare (no disrespect to Carlow and Clare....ok yes I will, you're ****e )

Most would expect a Dublin win in Leinster but Ulster maybe a little harder to predict.

We still have to do round 2 of B with Tyrone/Armagh, Carlow/Clare, Cavan/Roscommon, Down/Kildare
I'll go Tyrone, Carlow, Cavan and Down although its hard to accurately predict any of those 4. Tyrone are my only banker.
We wont have a clearer idea until next Monday when the 3B draw is done. I'd expect Tyrone to deal with whoever they get from that grouping however. Its anyone's guess for the other 4B rep right now. Kildare had a good qualifier record in the McGeeney era but again we need to see how they get on on Sunday and then the Monday draw.
The only banker on the total B side is Dublin will be in action in the QF. From there its largely dependent on the Rd 3 & 4 draws.

Fr Tod Umptious

iDave wrote: »

Just looking at this now and who could get who.
From what I see Con and Mun are pegged to the A side while Lein and Uls are pegged to the B side.

So Cork are entering the Rd 4 A side. I'd hazard a guess they will be joined by Galway unless they find something against Mayo we don't know they had.
So looking at the 3A draw its Sligo/Limerick and Laois/Tipp. Neither easy to call.
I would assume Cork have enough to get by whoever they get. They cant get Kerry again the QF so we're looking at a Mayo/Cork QF.
Galway are a little harder to predict and their qualifier form is atrocious. Laois would certainly fancy their chances if they got them. If we assume Galway get their act together though we are looking at a Kerry/Galway QF.

Ok so B side and we have to find 2 semi finalists from Dublin, Meath, Monaghan, Donegal, Tyrone, Down, Armagh, Cavan and Kildare (no disrespect to Carlow and Clare....ok yes I will, you're ****e )

Most would expect a Dublin win in Leinster but Ulster maybe a little harder to predict.

We still have to do round 2 of B with Tyrone/Armagh, Carlow/Clare, Cavan/Roscommon, Down/Kildare
I'll go Tyrone, Carlow, Cavan and Down although its hard to accurately predict any of those 4. Tyrone are my only banker.
We wont have a clearer idea until next Monday when the 3B draw is done. I'd expect Tyrone to deal with whoever they get from that grouping however. Its anyone's guess for the other 4B rep right now. Kildare had a good qualifier record in the McGeeney era but again we need to see how they get on on Sunday and then the Monday draw.
The only banker on the total B side is Dublin will be in action in the QF. From there its largely dependent on the Rd 3 & 4 draws.

Great post iDave

The way Cork were yesterday, and the way they played v Tipp, and v Dublin the the league SF I would not bet on them winning their Rnd 4, certainly not v Loais

Always_Running

If Sligo beat limerick wouldn't that mean they would be paired against cork in round 4 as they can't face Galway again proving the tribesmen lose on Sunday of course.

iDave

Its easy to get hysterical about Cork after that Munster campaign, the problem with GAA unlike say the Premier League is there's so few examples to suggest any real form.
I would expect them to win round 4. If nothing else they have a psychological advantage over Limerick and Tipp. While Sligo and Laois may not have that I still can't see them getting a result on Cork. Would be great to see one of those 4 make the QF mind you. We're looking at neutral venues for that round which may work in Laois and Sligos favour but even at that I still cant see it.

keane2097

Always_Running wrote: »

If Sligo beat limerick wouldn't that mean they would be paired against cork in round 4 as they can't face Galway again proving the tribesmen lose on Sunday of course.

It's only provincial final opponents that are kept apart, nothing to stop Galway and Sligo meeting again.

keane2097

Where do people see Kerry's level after the weekend?

I didn't think we were about much before yesterday but will have to revise my opinion of them up somewhat I think.

Fr Tod Umptious

iDave wrote: »

Its easy to get hysterical about Cork after that Munster campaign, the problem with GAA unlike say the Premier League is there's so few examples to suggest any real form.
I would expect them to win round 4. If nothing else they have a psychological advantage over Limerick and Tipp. While Sligo and Laois may not have that I still can't see them getting a result on Cork. Would be great to see one of those 4 make the QF mind you. We're looking at neutral venues for that round which may work in Laois and Sligos favour but even at that I still cant see it.

But there is form, you just have to look for it.

Surprisingly good league form is often a poor indicator of championship potential.
This is because the team with the surprisingly good form is often playing with a championship team, whereas the opposition may not be.
We have seen that with both Derry and Cork in 2014.
But when it came to the crunch in the league Cork folded v Dublin.
Then they struggled v Tipp.
Plus they had 6 big retirements in the winter and a managerial change
All of this shows form.

Look at Mayo, they failed to win the two most important games in the league, v Dublin and v Derry (SF) and they struggled v Roscommon, all of that shows that they may not be bringing the intensity required to be champions in 2014.

It’s hard to know what Kerry are like
They had a poor league, they had a good home win v Tyrone, but the only other wins were v the two bottom teams Kildare and Westmeath.
They struggled for a long time v Clare and blitzed a poor Cork.
Their path to a SF looks pretty clear, but if they meet an on form Mayo (a better Mayo than we have seen to date) I’d expect a Mayo win.

Fireball07

Not travelling up to Sligo today, but if Limerick were able to pull a win out of the bag, I'd count this as a very good season, despite the poor start to the Championship.

The loss to Tipperary would still be a blow, but it's a hell of a lot better than last season. We stayed up in the league, we introduced lots of new players which will hopefully stand to us in the future, and we'd have reached the 4th round- okay it was a kind draw, but winning 3 qualifier games is better than what we would have expected.


If we lose to Sligo, it'll have been an okay season. Unspectactular... disappointing to lose to Sligo, but we achieved our goals in the league and also introduced players.

Big game imo.