Irish builder gambles €100m on property market revival; is the recession nearly over?

Daith

anncoates wrote: »

I'm not an expert but it's supposed to be a case of people with money wanting a limited amount of family homes in Dublin.

That wasn't really my point though. More that people always expect a certain point in a cycle to stay forever and it's usually because if their own interests .

That's true for both sides though. The vested interests who want property prices to increase so they make money (sellers, Banks, NAMA, newspapers, estate agents) versus those that want property to be cheaper.

I'd personally just want property to be dictated by the market to be honest.

anncoates wrote: »

Houses are never worth a 'sensible' price, only what people are prepared or pay.

In Ireland for sure. Property can only go up in value.

Rabelais

It was the same on thepropertypin forum a few years back. Went from being a site where people discussed the bubble market to one where loony lefties living in bedsits believed they'd eventually pick up a gaff in Dublin for the price of a Fiat car.

Sleepy

Don't know about the rest but Stepaside and Sutton would both seem like fairly easy locations to develop estates of decent 3/4 bed houses and sell them at a good profit.

mickydoomsux

The recession isn't "nearly over", it's been over for quite some time.

K.Flyer

mickydoomsux wrote: »

The recession isn't "nearly over", it's been over for quite some time.

Ahh... then explain why we Still Have approx 400,000 (12.5%) of our population still signing on.

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/lr/liveregisternovember2013/#.UsqkfrtAG2I

mickydoomsux

K.Flyer wrote: »

Ahh... then explain why we Still Have approx 400,000 (12.5%) of our population still signing on.

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/lr/liveregisternovember2013/#.UsqkfrtAG2I

The rate is dropping as show in your figures. Evidence that the recession is over. It isn't something that will magically end overnight with 300k-ish unemployed people all of a sudden waking up with jobs in the morning.

Way to torpedo your own argument by not understanding what you're talking about and trotting out the tabloid headline grabbing figures that you don't know how to interpret properly.

moxin

anncoates wrote: »

Have no idea if the current price rises in Dublin are due to a so called cash bubble or the actual bottom of the crash but it's amusing to see so many people utterly determined to believe that property prices will continue dropping in Dublin forever.

Property prices are cyclical. That's why it's called a cycle. Everybody doesn't suddenly wise up and the process stops forever.

Ireland is different(yeh you heard that before )

It really is different this time, sales are being driven by cash buyers rather than mortgage lending. This new Dublin only cycle will fall when the cash buyers run out. There is even a quote in the article of one of the players saying its too expensive to invest now.

K.Flyer

mickydoomsux wrote: »

The rate is dropping as show in your figures. Evidence that the recession is over. It isn't something that will magically end overnight with 300k-ish unemployed people all of a sudden waking up with jobs in the morning.

Way to torpedo your own argument by not understanding what you're talking about and trotting out the tabloid headline grabbing figures that you don't know how to interpret properly.

Whilst there may be a slight drop in figures I do not see them as any great cause for celebration just yet.
If you were to factor out people leaving the country to get work (and those who jumped off it as a result of the new id card scheme) I don't see the drop as being anything substantial.
But your interpretation of the figures will differ from mine, so thats fine, thats life.
But one thing I do not get is that you presume I get my information from tabloid headlines. I have not bought a newspaper in years, least of all any of the "tabloid" type. They are only useful for lining cat litter trays.

Kippure

IvaBigWun wrote: »

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/irish-builder-gambles-100m-on-property-market-revival-29888570.html



Is this one of the strongest signals that the recession is nearly over? Is it just the Indo doing its usual exaggeration of the Irish property market?

Or are New Generation Homes simply following the adage that "when there's blood on the streets buy property"? (while there hasnt been "blood" on Irish streets there has certainly been enough protests and a massive increase in homeless)

Either way it'll go down as either one of the most foolish Irish business decisions ever or one of the most astute. I have a feeling it'll be the latter

Where would one find the area of ALL land that has been bought up?????

tin79

K.Flyer wrote: »

Ahh... then explain why we Still Have approx 400,000 (12.5%) of our population still signing on.

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/lr/liveregisternovember2013/#.UsqkfrtAG2I

I suggest you look up recession and how its defined.


Its a depressed jobs market but its not a recession.


Its kinda like a car crash. The actual crash ended days ago but your neck still hurts for ages.

anncoates

moxin wrote: »

Ireland is different(yeh you heard that before )

It really is different this time, sales are being driven by cash buyers rather than mortgage lending. This new Dublin only cycle will fall when the cash buyers run out. There is even a quote in the article of one of the players saying its too expensive to invest now.

I'm sure it's mostly cash although I personally know of 3 people that have just taken mortgages.

The current state of the market isn't really my point though, more the cyclical nature of property prices no matter who is tinkering with the market at a given time.

The fact remains that people are reacting violently to any suggestion that prices might rise again because they've become addicted to a kind of crash porn (like its mirror component, boom porn) where they think prices will fall forever and the only thing stopping houses in desirable areas costing 70k (while wages magically stay the same, of course) is the damn government/NAMA/cash buyers/banks and whatever.

As for the OP, I would have thought the likes of Sutton and Cabinteely wouldn't be a bad bet for reasonably priced family homes if you had the capital. They built a new estate of houses beside mine (south west Dublin about 10 miles from city centre) recently and the first 2 phases actually seem to be selling.

Not that I care about the market, I should add. I'm not looking to buy/move.

KyussBishop

Saying property prices are cyclical doesn't mean anything - the entire economy is cyclical.

What has been pointed out, is that the rise in property prices minus any change in economic fundamentals (private debt and debt in general, is still sky high), is unsustainable and is going to lead to another boom-crash cycle; if that's allowed to take off, it's going to leave us in a worse position than we are now, with even more debts and austerity (and selloff of public assets, and transformation of our private economy more towards rent-seeking activities).

The primary important part, to see if we really are on the way to a sustainable economic recovery, is to just look at debt levels, particularly private debt - until that is resolved, nothing is going to improve fast:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10548104/IMF-paper-warns-of-savings-tax-and-mass-write-offs-as-Wests-debt-hits-200-year-high.html

smallerthanyou

Yes it means the recession is over. Low prices were the cause of the recession and high house prices mean we're out of it. Definitely clearest signal its over. Consumer sentiment and job creation and all that tosh means nothing compared to house prices. They are key. The more we spend on houses the better for everyone....

keeponhurling

On the surface it seems like good news, but how can we be 100% sure that we won't have to bail out "US private equity firm Starwood" if it is a bad investment?

KyussBishop

Judging by this, we have the second highest level of Public+Private debt to GDP in the entire world:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

Here is a more conservative estimate from two years ago:
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2012/01/25/private-debt-so-enormous-that-default-is-only-option

People think more mortgages i.e. more debt is going to be good for us, when we already are one of the most indebted nations (as a percentage of GDP) on the planet? We aren't even going to be able to pay off our existing debts, nevermind have a new sustainable property boom.

I wonder how many of these same people promoting this, think expanding public debt is unsustainable - well take a look at how big private debt is, in relation to our public debt.

mad muffin

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bOy3RNyWME

ringadingding

I know the feller from school, head screwed on, decent network around him.
Made money in the boom, and had enough savvy to not waste or show it off, now has money to buy.

He was raised on the building sites and working his ass off whilst I was out doing hash yoghurts and being a delinquent.

I wish him the best of luck

Montroseee

ringadingding wrote: »

I know the feller from school, head screwed on, decent network around him.
Made money in the boom, and had enough savvy to not waste or show it off, now has money to buy.

He was raised on the building sites and working his ass off whilst I was out doing hash yoghurts and being a delinquent.

I wish him the best of luck

The boom was 6/7 years ago at this stage though, so he would have been late teens/early twenties. Did he make good money at such a young age?

Chazz Michael Michaels

The fact that prices are rising sharply in Dublin is partly due to increased demand and limited supply. It can be argued that the supply is needed. This isn't a housing estate in Leitrim, therefore parallels with the mistakes of the Celtic tiger may not be based on sound thinking.

Captain Chaos

You could pull in €600 a week after tax at 19 on building sites 7 years ago no problem.

flas

Mardy Bum wrote: »

Seems he was a project manager from as early as 21 years of age according to an article about the Viper intimidating him in the herald. Obviously a talented worker.

I worked with this lad for nearly a year when terminal 2 was being built,he was a labourer like myself on site,a fall man if I ever seen one,has had ideas about himself but was thick as ****! terrified to leave the site some days over people chasing him for money...

Montroseee

flas wrote: »

I worked with this lad for nearly a year when terminal 2 was being built,he was a labourer like myself on site,a fall man if I ever seen one,has had ideas about himself but was thick as ****! terrified to leave the site some days over people chasing him for money...

Terminal 2 was built in 2008 I think? How did he owe a lot of money at such a young age?

IvaBigWun

KyussBishop wrote: »

Judging by this, we have the second highest level of Public+Private debt to GDP in the entire world:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

Scary stats.

Duzzer

Montroseee wrote: »

Terminal 2 was built in 2008 I think? How did he owe a lot of money at such a young age?

Did he ever get sorted with the viper.

http://www.herald.ie/news/courts/vipers-agency-accused-of-issuing-threats-over-debt-27910209.html

Tip of the ice berg stuff

http://www.independent.ie/regionals/goreyguardian/news/wellmeaning-man-told-to-clean-up-site-27343894.html

Duzzer

Nick Webb didn't dig too deep.

http://www.solocheck.ie/Irish-Company/Scarnagh-Property-Limited-415820

http://www.solocheck.ie/Irish-Company/Scarnagh-Building-Contractors-Limited-400708

fermatstheorem

ringadingding wrote: »

I know the feller from school, head screwed on, decent network around him.
Made money in the boom, and had enough savvy to not waste or show it off, now has money to buy.

He was raised on the building sites and working his ass off whilst I was out doing hash yoghurts and being a delinquent.

I wish him the best of luck

I know him as well, really decent guy, absolute gent, very understated, never ever goes on about the business/ money.