GOLD CUP

Dr. Bre

even tho i hve my doubts about CC staying its worth him taking his chance cos its not a great gold cup. if BW and SC dont perform its anyones even Captain Chris could do it ha

jimjamcos

Dr. Bre wrote: »

even tho i hve my doubts about CC staying its worth him taking his chance cos its not a great gold cup. if BW and SC dont perform its anyones even Captain Chris could do it ha

If it's moved to Kempton, maybe.

mailburner

mr.jingle wrote: »

If all 3 stay up without major mistakes coming around 2m4/5f i'd imagine Bobs Worth being niggled along with 3 or 4 to go with Cue Card tanking along at the front with a stalking SIlviniaco Conti to take it up coming to the last as Cue Card gives way and Bob's Worth getting up to nail Silviniaco Conti in the last 100

that sounds about right to me

yaboya1

mr.jingle wrote: »

He was going as well as any when he tipped up last year, with his stamina guaranteed by his King George win he's the main danger to Bobs Worth. If all 3 stay up without major mistakes coming around 2m4/5f i'd imagine Bobs Worth being niggled along with 3 or 4 to go with Cue Card tanking along at the front with a stalking SIlviniaco Conti to take it up coming to the last as Cue Card gives way and Bob's Worth getting up to nail Silviniaco Conti in the last 100

I'm not saying he won't stay, but he's not guaranteed to get the Gold Cup trip just because he won at Kempton. Plenty of horses have won the King George and failed to get home over the extra 2.5 furlongs in the Gold Cup.

hucklebuck

Plenty writing off Cue Card but I think he will there or thereabouts.

For me the one big question is how well Conti gets 3m2, if there are worried about Conti that will be to Cue Cards favour. If Tizzard can get a breather into Cue Card coming down the hill it will take a tip top Bobs Worth to reel him in. Cue Card devoured the hill in the Ryanair and Bobs Worth loves it too.

huey1975

mr.jingle wrote: »

He was going as well as any when he tipped up last year, with his stamina guaranteed by his King George win he's the main danger to Bobs Worth. If all 3 stay up without major mistakes coming around 2m4/5f i'd imagine Bobs Worth being niggled along with 3 or 4 to go with Cue Card tanking along at the front with a stalking SIlviniaco Conti to take it up coming to the last as Cue Card gives way and Bob's Worth getting up to nail Silviniaco Conti in the last 100

The king George wins of One Man didn't guarantee him staying the extra two furlongs up the hill in the gold cup!!!

ste2010

hucklebuck wrote: »

Plenty writing off Cue Card but I think he will there or thereabouts.

For me the one big question is how well Conti gets 3m2, if there are worried about Conti that will be to Cue Cards favour. If Tizzard can get a breather into Cue Card coming down the hill it will take a tip top Bobs Worth to reel him in. Cue Card devoured the hill in the Ryanair and Bobs Worth loves it too.

Bobs worth is phenomenal at Cheltenham but I think he is going to come into a gold cup with a lot more pace than last season. The taps will be turned on for him long before the final bend and firmly believe he will be at it from a long way out which might be the death of his chances. I would not write off cue card. Just because he was legless at kempton on soft/heavy doesn't mean he'll be the same at a good, good to soft gold cup. He will definitely stay 3m on good/soft ground and his chances will be strengthened by the course. The timing and pace of his ride will be the making or breaking of him and will make a big difference to whether he will stretch the final 2f. He will need to set a strong pace to get bobs worth out of his comfort zone a long way out but only strong enough to ensure he lasts the trip. They will have learned alot from kempton.

Cue card to win the gold Cup
25 pts

jimjamcos

ste2010 wrote: »

Bobs worth is phenomenal at Cheltenham but I think he is going to come into a gold cup with a lot more pace than last season. The taps will be turned on for him long before the final bend and firmly believe he will be at it from a long way out which might be the death of his chances. I would not write off cue card. Just because he was legless at kempton on soft/heavy doesn't mean he'll be the same at a good, good to soft gold cup. He will definitely stay 3m on good/soft ground and his chances will be strengthened by the course. The timing and pace of his ride will be the making or breaking of him and will make a big difference to whether he will stretch the final 2f. He will need to set a strong pace to get bobs worth out of his comfort zone a long way out but only strong enough to ensure he lasts the trip. They will have learned alot from kempton.

Cue card to win the gold Cup
25 pts

Betfair Chase wasn't 3m. King George was. Cue Card isn't winning a Gold Cup with proper stayers in it.

ste2010

jimjamcos wrote: »

Betfair Chase wasn't 3m. King George was. Cue Card isn't winning a Gold Cup with proper stayers in it.

The gold cup isn't always the greatest stayer that wins when there is class in the race. Watch 2008,2009,2010 and although all were off the bridle it wasn't the gruelling staying contest that we have become accustomed to since long run, synchronised and bobs worth wins. A classy horse will have other horses off the bridle but may not necessarily be so much out of their comfort zone to be off the bridle themselves. The kempton win on soft/heavy was a very strong time for silviniaco conti. Given cue card set the pace you could expect he could do something similar but at a reduced pace which will all be down the joe settling the horse. Another option here is to follow closely whoever setting the pace and take it up on the last circuit if the pace isn't blistering. If cue card didn't become legless on the kempton ground there's a strong chance he would have completed 20secs better than the c and d average. This is soft/heavy...the same would not happen on good/goodsoft. Cue card is the classiest horse in the race..he may not need to stay if he finds his perfect pace

ste2010

Also the Betfair chase bullsh*t that is going around about it not being 3m is waffle. There is nothing significant about the completion time nor has anyone tended to investigate it further. This could easily be done with the right software and the fact nothing materialized sounds to me like someone came out with this waffle clutching at straws

jimjamcos

ste2010 wrote: »

Also the Betfair chase bullsh*t that is going around about it not being 3m is waffle. There is nothing significant about the completion time nor has anyone tended to investigate it further. This could easily be done with the right software and the fact nothing materialized sounds to me like someone came out with this waffle clutching at straws

Plenty looked into it and proved so but just because C4 and the Post chose to largely ignore it doesn't mean it's waffle. Why so did Cue Card 'get' the Haydock 3m so well yet not the Kempton 3m? Ground was largely similar. This sort of thing is happening every week of the year, both in Ireland and UK.

ste2010

jimjamcos wrote: »

Plenty looked into it and proved so but just because C4 and the Post chose to largely ignore it doesn't mean it's waffle. Why so did Cue Card 'get' the Haydock 3m so well yet not the Kempton 3m? Ground was largely similar. This sort of thing is happening every week of the year, both in Ireland and UK.

I would highly doubt this happens week in week out. Who or what reliable source came forward with physical or believable evidence that the trip was less than 3m? Different courses, different pace heavier ground would explain the reasons why a horse might get a trip in one course not in another. The phrase horses for courses...think denman punchestown, imperial commander Kempton, finians rainbow ascot

Bangor Billy

Put it this way. Based on the official distances Spirit of Shankly broke the course record on the Friday on soft ground. Some horse that Spirit of Shankly.

ste2010

Bangor Billy wrote: »

Put it this way. Based on the official distances Spirit of Shankly broke the course record on the Friday on soft ground. Some horse that Spirit of Shankly.

At haydock over 2m 4?

Bangor Billy

Yes. Broke the 2m 4f course record according to the Racing Post.

ste2010

Bangor Billy wrote: »

Yes. Broke the 2m 4f course record according to the Racing Post.

Do we know what kind of horses ran in previous races at this course and distance. Struggling to find anything before 2012

jimjamcos

ste2010 wrote: »

I would highly doubt this happens week in week out. Who or what reliable source came forward with physical or believable evidence that the trip was less than 3m? Different courses, different pace heavier ground would explain the reasons why a horse might get a trip in one course not in another. The phrase horses for courses...think denman punchestown, imperial commander Kempton, finians rainbow ascot

Dan Kelly and a host of other lesser known journalists. Was meant to be over 3m1 but race was run over 2m7. And it does happen in Ireland, even at Leopardstown over Christmas gone. Fact is only 3m race Cue Card has won is clouded by doubt. Not denying he loves Cheltenham and is the classiest horse in the race but he was travelling like the winner all through the KG and didn't win. Why is that? Can hardly blame the track or ground now can you, given the way he went from winner to wankered in a matter of strides.

hucklebuck

I thought the Betfair was further than normal but more of it on the flat track? Something to do with drainage afaik?

ste2010

jimjamcos wrote: »

Dan Kelly and a host of other lesser known journalists. Was meant to be over 3m1 but race was run over 2m7. And it does happen in Ireland, even at Leopardstown over Christmas gone. Fact is only 3m race Cue Card has won is clouded by doubt. Not denying he loves Cheltenham and is the classiest horse in the race but he was travelling like the winner all through the KG and didn't win. Why is that? Can hardly blame the track or ground now can you, given the way he went from winner to wankered in a matter of strides.

Who is Dan kelly and who does he write for? Are there any articles published online, I can't find any? Which race at leopardstown was different in distance? The fact is the doubts are based on thoughts by lesser known journalists who have yet to publish any evidence online or in writing because there no evidence to support their statement. I personally believe the way he stopped so suddenly either the horse mentally gave up..it was like he was shot..also ground is a huge significant difference. Picture yourself running a marathon in conemara in the depths of a winters day after 2 weeks of dreadful rainfall...now think of running a marathon on dry ground after 2 weeks of sun splitting skies...now add a bag of weights to your back..which do you think would be more tolling on your stamina? The winter marathon or the summer marathon.
I'm not bullish about cue cards chances but I think people are writing him off too soon

ste2010

hucklebuck wrote: »

I thought the Betfair was further than normal but more of it on the flat track? Something to do with drainage afaik?

There's nothing significant about cue cards win. The time, the track, the distance .it's all smoke...
The only time I heard this referenced about the track being 2m 7 was some twat on at the races and gave his reasoning as the time the race was completed in didn't make sense to which I checked after and found nothing but hot air talk. The time was not completed quickly. In fact it was about 15-16 seconds slower than Kauto stars win in 2008 if I recall

BumperD

I had cc backed in kg, after having a good bet on the new one which went south. thought I was home for all money and then he just emptied. I cannot see him out staying Bw or even sc for that matter. Ryanair there for his taking, if he wants it. I think the tizzards are just keeping the option open to see who makes it to march. Every yr, a few of the main horses begin to fall away as we approach the festival. If either bw or sc didn't make it for whatever reason, they might give it a crack IMO.

kiers47

This years betfair was supposed to be run over a furlong extra than last years. 3m v 3m1f. So the 2012 running was run about 16secs quicker on good to soft. This years going was soft.

There are definitely some anomalies with the track lay out and whether it was the talked about 2m 7f i have no idea but i would be astonished if it was the stated 3m 1f.

Dr. Bre

Ruby must be hoping mullins chooses the gold cup for boston bob as he wont have a top ride in the race. also who will mccoy ride?

jimjamcos

Dr. Bre wrote: »

Ruby must be hoping mullins chooses the gold cup for boston bob as he wont have a top ride in the race. also who will mccoy ride?

Ruby has mentioned Rubi Ball for GC. Assume he'll need soft though

paddy no 11

Tizzard got a breather into CC during the betfair he couldnt in the KG as SC kept him pressured all the way round hence he emptied, tizzard said this himself afterwards. Plus it was softer in the KG. There's valid reasons for him emptying, id back him again to get 3m not sure about 3m 2 though.

yaboya1

ste2010 wrote: »

There's nothing significant about cue cards win. The time, the track, the distance .it's all smoke...
The only time I heard this referenced about the track being 2m 7 was some twat on at the races and gave his reasoning as the time the race was completed in didn't make sense to which I checked after and found nothing but hot air talk. The time was not completed quickly. In fact it was about 15-16 seconds slower than Kauto stars win in 2008 if I recall

Except Kauto Star didn't win it in 2008

ste2010

yaboya1 wrote: »

Except Kauto Star didn't win it in 2008

Hence the words recall..thank you for your valuable comment..2007 or 2009 possibly..I don't have the time to check