2013 - 2014 Playoffs: Divisional Weekend Games

Paully D

Panthers

Seahawks, Colts, 49ers and Broncos for me. I was 1/4 last weekend so I won't be holding my breath on those :pac:

Knex*

Panthers

Went with, Seahawks, Pats, 49ers and Broncos.

Was 3/4 the last time, with Chargers proving me wrong. Have a feeling they may very well do so again.

golfball37

Broncos

I'm going for 4 road wins. I was 4/4 last week and won a few quid in the bookies.

The one that I'm most concerned about is Carolina/SF as the Panthers have a serious defence and a serious upgrade on Colin Kaep at QB. I just take SF to sneak it though in a low scoring affair.

adrian522

Panthers

I'm not sure Newton represents a "serious upgrade" on Kaepernick. Not on 2013 form anyway.

Newton 61.3% completion, 3379 yards, 7.14 YPA, 24TD,13 INT, 88.8 passer rating, 585 yards rushing/6 rushing TD's

Kaepernick 58.4% completion, 3197 yards, 7.69 YPA, 21TD, 8 INT, 91.6 passer rating. 524 yards rushing /4 rushing TD's

Not much to choose between them to be honest.

SantryRed

Panthers

Just when you think the Seahawks can't get much stronger, Percy Harvin has been cleared to play Saturday.

Morrisseeee

Panthers

Not many people are giving the Saints a chance against the Hawks !
If they win, it'd be the biggest upset of the weekend, and I'm going to give them a squeak. I think last week's win will have given them the confidence to step it up another level and if the Hawks are not at 100% then I can see them clinging on for an improbable win.

As for my own team, Broncos, I feel like an underdog now, especially if you go onto the NFL.com site !! :eek:
Here's a list of videos for Broncos fans to be positive about (not!):
1: Sixth sense? Recent history backs Saints, Chargers
2: Peyton and the playoff bugaboo
3: Chargers vs. Broncos: The (Manning) Quest (video is basically in Manning's face putting pressure on him to win, win, win)
4: Another one-and-done for Peyton?
5: Do the Chargers have the Broncos' number?
6: Does Rivers have the edge over Peyton?
7: How scary are the Chargers?
8: Can the Broncos' defense stop the Chargers' offense?

Oh and they also have a photo of Rivers & Manning and the caption is : 2-0
/they forgot to mention that Manning is 3-1 in recent meetings with Rivers !!

So surely they have the same trend with Brady ? right ? ....... NO !
Their videos are all positive:
1: Divisional Round X-Factor: LeGarrette Blount
2: Patriots top defense remaining in AFC?
3: Easy win for the Patriots?
4: Mind-blowing stats: Forget Brady; Patriots win by running

There's no videos there putting pressure on Brady, even though he hasn't won a SB since 2005, there's no videos saying how scary the Colts are, how the Colts have the edge or have some kind of sixth sense !!!
/I reckon McGinist & Deion set up those videos

golfball37

Broncos

adrian522 wrote: »

I'm not sure Newton represents a "serious upgrade" on Kaepernick. Not on 2013 form anyway.

Newton 61.3% completion, 3379 yards, 7.14 YPA, 24TD,13 INT, 88.8 passer rating, 585 yards rushing/6 rushing TD's

Kaepernick 58.4% completion, 3197 yards, 7.69 YPA, 21TD, 8 INT, 91.6 passer rating. 524 yards rushing /4 rushing TD's

Not much to choose between them to be honest.

If Michael Crabtree, Boldin and Vernon Davis played for Carolina you'd see what I meant.

adrian522

Panthers

Well given Kaepernick hasn't had Crabtree most of this year I'd say their respective receiving options have been about the same.

Son Of A Vidic

Broncos

Morrisseeee I'll give my view on the Pats points you mentioned from the NFL site.

Morrisseeee wrote: »

1: Divisional Round X-Factor: LeGarrette Blount

Well maybe yes and maybe no. Yes he had superstar performance against the Bills. But that was against the Bills, which I pointed out just a few posts back, have one of the worst run defenses in the league. So context needs to be added to that performance. I don't think any Pats fans are losing the run of themselves over our run game. Yes it has started to look good, but I'll need to see more proof before I'll swallow the NFL hype.

Morrisseeee wrote: »

2: Patriots top defense remaining in AFC?

Since when? Most gimped? Yes absolutely? But the top? Feck no. I mean what are those guys smoking?

Morrisseeee wrote: »

3: Easy win for the Patriots?

Said no Pats fan here ever. Look ignore the NFL bullshít, it will be a close game, a tough game that could swing wither way.

Morrisseeee wrote: »

4: Mind-blowing stats: Forget Brady; Patriots win by running

There's no videos there putting pressure on Brady, even though he hasn't won a SB since 2005, there's no videos saying how scary the Colts are, how the Colts have the edge or have some kind of sixth sense !!!
/I reckon McGinist & Deion set up those videos

Well with the weather that's in it, of course teams will swing largely toward their run game. The Pats WR corp remains banjaxed apart from Edelman, Collie was resigned. So we will have to drive home the run and if we do win, yes I think it will be by running.

I think the latter part of the above quote is pretty irrelevant RE:Brady no pressure? When it there ever no pressure on Brady? His whole season and indeed his career has been the epitome of it. He spent most of the year trying to find someone healthy to throw to and breaking in a new WR corp. And because of all that, he has had more pressure on him this year than ever before, Saturday's game will be no different for him. The pressure is all on Brady, if he wins the media will say "Ah sure that was expected". If he loses, the media will say "Oh that's a shock, hey maybe Brady is past it?"

And what has not winning a Superbowl since 2005 got to do with the Colts game? What has Peyton not winning a Superbowl since 2007 got to do with the Chargers game? What has Rivers never winning a Superbowl got to do with the Broncos game? I mean when it comes to Football, the imponderables are potentially limitless. I rarely go to NFL.com site, sure everyone knows it's full of over-hyped shyte and spin half the time. I think there's nothing new in seeing former players of a team naturally batting for their former team. I only find the NFL site useful during the offseason. And reading the 'points' they raised there, just reminds why I do so.

adrian522

Panthers

So who do you rate as the top defense remaining in the AFC if not the Patriots?

Son Of A Vidic

Broncos

adrian522 wrote: »

So who do you rate as the top defense remaining in the AFC if not the Patriots?

There is no one stand out defense in the AFC left. The Colts secondary have given up the least amount of passing yards and passing TDs. We have the worst run defense of all the remaining AFC teams in terms of yardage, but have given up the least amount of TDs. So probably our front seven. But with Spikes just gone on IR this week, our run stuffing ability will be seriously affected. So the Colts secondary and a cautious mention for the Pats front seven.

matthew8

Chargers

Half the Patriots defense is on IR and there are players out of position and players who weren't even backups a while ago starting. It's a stretch to call any of the AFC defenses good but no way are the Patriots the best. I'd probably say the Chargers have the best D and even they are so hit and miss.

Son Of A Vidic

Broncos

matthew8 wrote: »

Half the Patriots defense is on IR and there are players out of position and players who weren't even backups a while ago starting. It's a stretch to call any of the AFC defenses good but no way are the Patriots the best. I'd probably say the Chargers have the best D and even they are so hit and miss.

I agree, but I went with the Pats front seven over the Chargers because they have 37% (15) more sacks and have given up less rushing TDs than the Chargers. I have to admit, I was a bit surprised by the numbers considering the volume of turnovers and injuries all season.

Morrisseeee

Panthers

Corvus Maximus wrote: »

I rarely go to NFL.com site, sure everyone knows it's full of over-hyped shyte
and spin half the time. I think there's nothing new in seeing former players of a team naturally batting for their former team. I only find the NFL site useful during the offseason. And reading the 'points' they raised there, just reminds why I do so.

Yes, I think you've hit the nail on the head there

Roll on tomorrow & Sunday, can't wait.

golfball37

Broncos

adrian522 wrote: »

Well given Kaepernick hasn't had Crabtree most of this year I'd say their respective receiving options have been about the same.

We'll agree to differ so. I wouldn't have CK anywhere near the level of Newton buts that just my opinion. Stats can look good when you've a great receiving options but I go on what I see not what I read in numbers. Not saying Kap is bad at all he's just not top top level like Newton, Luck, Wilson and a few others.

Deco99

Chargers

Where would be a good site for team news for these games, who's in, who's out who's a doubt?

Knex*

Panthers

Would have to agree that I think Kaepernick can be somewhat overrated/hyped by some media quarters at times. Even thought it last year.

That's not to say he's not a very good player though and one of the better QBs in the league.

adrian522

Panthers

golfball37 wrote: »

We'll agree to differ so. I wouldn't have CK anywhere near the level of Newton buts that just my opinion. Stats can look good when you've a great receiving options but I go on what I see not what I read in numbers. Not saying Kap is bad at all he's just not top top level like Newton, Luck, Wilson and a few others.

Riiiight. We'll have to leave it there so.

Nowhere near that level eh? OK.

Given you go on what you see, I don't know what youv'e been seeing when watching 49ers games to be honest.

adrian522

Panthers

Deco99 wrote: »

Where would be a good site for team news for these games, who's in, who's out who's a doubt?

NFL.com
http://espn.go.com/nfl/

The team blogs on SBnation are good too

http://www.sbnation.com/blogs

Deco99

Chargers

adrian522 wrote: »

NFL.com
http://espn.go.com/nfl/

The team blogs on SBnation are good too

http://www.sbnation.com/blogs

Agree, been on this site last week, for the videos, their Saints Eagles preview made me a few quid, they all went for eagles, the stats they presented said eagles, but in the end he says "f**k it, i'm goin saints" i felt the same.

Never thought they did the team news cheers.

golfball37

Broncos

adrian522 wrote: »

Riiiight. We'll have to leave it there so.

Nowhere near that level eh? OK.

Given you go on what you see, I don't know what youv'e been seeing when watching 49ers games to be honest.

If both teams swapped QB's who do you think would be a better outfit? Sunday's game is too close to call but if Kaepernick was the Panthers starter I'd have my doubts they'd be in the play offs. If Cam was in candlestick they'd be the team to beat in the whole league- Again only my opinion.

Syferus

Chargers

Cam certainly means more to Carolina than Kaep does to the 9ers. Kaep is spoilt with riches - Cam's third receiver for most of the year has been Ted Ginn Jr, y'know, the player that was the 9ers punt returner.

Kaep's an important piece but given what Smith did this year and last the 9ers would be here regardless of who they chose to be QB last year. Kaep's ceiling is higher which is obviously why they went with him.

adrian522

Panthers

golfball37 wrote: »

If both teams swapped QB's who do you think would be a better outfit? Sunday's game is too close to call but if Kaepernick was the Panthers starter I'd have my doubts they'd be in the play offs. If Cam was in candlestick they'd be the team to beat in the whole league- Again only my opinion.

So when you say Kaepernick is "nowhere near the level" of Newton,Luck,Wilson and "a few others" I find that comment a bit strange given he has performed better than all of those other than Wilson.

Who are these few others that Kaepernick is nowhere near? Just for my own education.

To answer your question above I don't think swapping QB's would make much difference as I see both QB's at about the same level.

Syferus wrote: »

Cam certainly means more to Carolina than Kaep does to the 9ers. Kaep is spoilt with riches - Cam's third receiver for most of the year has been Ted Ginn Jr, y'know, the player that was the 9ers punt returner.

Kaep's an important piece but given what Smith did this year and last the 9ers would be here regardless of who they chose to be QB last year. Kaep's ceiling is higher which is obviously why they went with him.

Who has Kap's 3rd receiver been this season? Bruce Miller a full back has got most looks after Boldin and Davis. In terms of receivers for most of the season he had Boldin, Kyle Williams and not much else. So I don't buy this argument at all.

I don't see how Alex Smith figures into a conversation comparing Kap and Cam at all. Put Smith on the Panthers and the'd still be in the playoffs too.

Syferus

Chargers

Why shouldn't Smith come into it? I think it's been a little but of second season syndrome for Kaep this season, teams adjusting and him struggling a little. With Smith this year SF would likely have had an easier ride into the play-offs.

Statistics can be distracting - a lot of Cam's races went down year-on-year but he became a better leader and produced consistently at the most important times. SF's other offensive pieces are good enough to perform with a competent QB; we've seen what Carolina was like without Cam and it wasn't pretty. There's more asked of Cam than there is of Kaep.

adrian522

Panthers

Syferus wrote: »

Why shouldn't Smith come into it? I think it's been a little but of second season syndrome for Kaep this season, teams adjusting and him struggling a little. With Smith this year SF would likely have had an easier ride into the play-offs.

Statistics can be distracting - a lot of Cam's races went down year-on-year but he became a better leader and produced consistently at the most important times. SF's other offensive pieces are good enough to perform with a competent QB; we've seen what Carolina was like without Cam and it wasn't pretty. There's more asked of Cam than there is of Kaep.

Well because we were discussing 2 quarterbacks that aren't Alex Smith which is why he shouldn't come into it.

Actually I think Alex Smith is too conservative and wouldn't have been any better for San Francisco, in fact it would have led to a worse season.

Kaepernick led San Francisco to a 12 win season, even better than last year and with a tougher schedule.

San Francisco's options on offense for most of this year were terrible, particularly at wide receiver which is a big reason why Kaepernick struggled. I think he has been excellent since Crabtree came back, but prior to that it was too easy for teams to take away his receiving options. Even so I think he has had a good season, and has improved on going through his reads etc.

I certainly wouldn't agree he is nowhere near the level of the other young QB's in the league mentioned above.

matthew8

Chargers

Neither the 49ers or the Panthers are in the playoffs because of offense. The offenses hold up their side of the bargain and can pull out the late game drives but haven't been too high scoring. So I don't think you can say that if you put one on the other team they would be hugely different.

BKWDR

Chargers

Something in my waters tells me the upset of the weekend will be the Saints beating the Hawks at home. There i've said it.

adrian522

Panthers

Defense is the strength of both teams, San Francisco has a habit of putting a lot of points on bad teams, but struggling against elite defenses.

In terms of overall points per game though they are 11th, which is respectable and only just behind the Saints who would be considered a pretty good offense by most people.

adrian522

Panthers

BKWDR wrote: »

Something in my waters tells me the upset of the weekend will be the Saints beating the Hawks at home. There i've said it.

Could well happen, Saints are capable but they will need to run it effectively and Brees will need to be close to perfect.

If Jimmy Graham then also has a big day they have a chance. KJ Wright is out so Seattle will need to get someone else to cover him.

The Weather looks like rain, which would help Seattle. They have been excellent at home so I would still have them as favorites even though their offense hasn't been as good recently.

I think the Saints will keep it close but I fancy Seattle to sneak it.

BKWDR

Chargers

adrian522 wrote: »

Could well happen, Saints are capable but they will need to run it effectively and Brees will need to be close to perfect.

If Jimmy Graham then also has a big day they have a chance. KJ Wright is out so Seattle will need to get someone else to cover him.

The Weather looks like rain, which would help Seattle. They have been excellent at home so I would still have them as favorites even though their offense hasn't been as good recently.

I think the Saints will keep it close but I fancy Seattle to sneak it.

Yeah everything on paper has this one for the Hawks. But i don't know, i have a niggle about it. I think yeah the Hawks have been great all season but Saints are really coming on strong now and finding their stride and that win against the Eagles might just be the boost they need.

Syferus

Chargers

adrian522 wrote: »

Well because we were discussing 2 quarterbacks that aren't Alex Smith which is why he shouldn't come into it.

Actually I think Alex Smith is too conservative and wouldn't have been any better for San Francisco, in fact it would have led to a worse season.

Kaepernick led San Francisco to a 12 win season, even better than last year and with a tougher schedule.

San Francisco's options on offense for most of this year were terrible, particularly at wide receiver which is a big reason why Kaepernick struggled. I think he has been excellent since Crabtree came back, but prior to that it was too easy for teams to take away his receiving options. Even so I think he has had a good season, and has improved on going through his reads etc.

I certainly wouldn't agree he is nowhere near the level of the other young QB's in the league mentioned above.

Definitely not agreeing with that last line. For me Luck, Wilson, Cam, Kaep and RG3 are all viable franchise QBs and in a similar bracket. My ranking would be in the above order but you would be ecstatic you had any of them.

Just think Kaep has had the benefit if sitting on a very good team while Cam has had to haul Carolina out of the Jimmy Clausen era almost entirely by himself in his first year. Carolina have built a very good defence but in terms of weapons for Cam to use they don't compare favourably to Crabtree, Boldin and Davis, a trio as talented and experienced as any in the league right now.

adrian522

Panthers

Syferus wrote: »

Definitely not agreeing with that last line. For me Luck, Wilson, Cam, Knaep and RG3 are all viable franchise QBs and in a similar bracket. My ranking would be in the above order but you wouldn't be sad if you had any of them.

Yeah, RG3 has regressed a bit but could have another great year when properly recovered and with the new regime.

I'd have Wilson out in front at the moment, with the rest of them at a similar level like you say.

davyjose

Chargers

adrian522 wrote: »

Yeah, RG3 has regressed a bit but could have another great year when properly recovered and with the new regime.

I'd have Wilson out in front at the moment, with the rest of them at a similar level like you say.

Except Luck is throwing 150+ more attempts than those guys in a season, except Newton who he's thrown about 100 more than.

In case you don't think that's an important stat, go check out how many Manning, Brees and Brady are/have been throwing. You're taking on a lot more of your teams offensive load. SF's running game is huge, a good 40% of your yardage/TD's. Not much less than that for the Seahawks too. Luck has had very little running game to hide behind. As for injuries, he's been throwing to his 3 & 4 receivers & [insert UDFA here] since Reggie went down.

Kylo Ren

Seahawks
Patriots
Panthers
Broncos

matthew8

Chargers

davyjose wrote: »

Except Luck is throwing 150+ more attempts than those guys in a season, except Newton who he's thrown about 100 more than.

In case you don't think that's an important stat, go check out how many Manning, Brees and Brady are/have been throwing. You're taking on a lot more of your teams offensive load. SF's running game is huge, a good 40% of your yardage/TD's. Not much less than that for the Seahawks too. Luck has had very little running game to hide behind. As for injuries, he's been throwing to his 3 & 4 receivers & [insert UDFA here] since Reggie went down.

His numbers are clearly below Wilson's. Averaging 8.25 yards per attempt is massively impressive. If you think Luck has had it tough with his receivers look at Wilson. He hasn't had much to throw to at all.

davyjose

Chargers

matthew8 wrote: »

His numbers are clearly below Wilson's. Averaging 8.25 yards per attempt is massively impressive. If you think Luck has had it tough with his receivers look at Wilson. He hasn't had much to throw to at all.

I agree. I'm very impressed by Wilson but it still doesn't change the fact that its significantly less challenging for a QB with a strong running game who only needs to throw it 20-odd times a game. It completely changes how the opposing D has to set up and prepare. It affects completion % and yards after the catch.

adrian522

Panthers

I'm a huge luck fan, I think he's class, been a huge fan since he was in Stanford, but realistically I think Wilson is the best of the lot right now.

Luck has huge potential to have a great career though, particularly as the rest of the Colts team gets better, particularly the running game and offensive line

Morrisseeee

Panthers

Broncos may have some reason for believing they can win: Ryan Mathews not working today either !

As regards Luck, imagine if he had the defense of the 49ers or the Hawks, it would be the foundations of a dynasty !

davyjose

Chargers

adrian522 wrote: »

I'm a huge luck fan, I think he's class, been a huge fan since he was in Stanford, but realistically I think Wilson is the best of the lot right now.

Luck has huge potential to have a great career though, particularly as the rest of the Colts team gets better, particularly the running game and offensive line

I'm not necessarily saying he's not (I don't think so, but opinions etc...) but when people compare them they absolutely need to understand that its not a level playing field.
When you have 2000+ rushing yards and a top 3 defense, the passing game isn't the same. It just isn't. Someday we'll see Wilson sling it 550+ times a season for 4000 yards or so. I guess then we'll know for sure.

Paully D

Panthers

Statistic from NFL on ESPN:

Since 2003, an average of 42.5% of playoff games have been decided by seven points or fewer.

Son Of A Vidic

Broncos

davyjose wrote: »

I agree. I'm very impressed by Wilson but it still doesn't change the fact that its significantly less challenging for a QB with a strong running game who only needs to throw it 20-odd times a game. It completely changes how the opposing D has to set up and prepare. It affects completion % and yards after the catch.

I agree with this. Wilson is a fine young QB but he comes is second place for me. If I had to pick a franchise QB from this current young generation, then it's gonna be Luck for me without any hesitation. Very, very smart kid, great arm with all the passes, predisposed to being a pocket passer which I like. Runs really smart when he has to and he's also a big lad with deceptively quick feet for his size, which catches a lot of defenders out.

TO.

Chargers

I am a big fan of both Luck and Wilson and have been since both were in college.

What we have is two solid pocket passers who are both very smart and can change games. Both have extended athletic ability that they can fall on if needed to get out of the pocket or make a play. Right now Luck is the more complete QB though but not to say Wilson wont get there either. For me Luck will get to the same status as Manning, Brady, Rodgers and Brees quicker than Wilson. Luck has been ready since college were as Wilson has had a shaky career and needed Wisconsin and a guy like Pete Carroll to take a shot on him. He most certainly has paid back the opportunities given to him and shown why he deserved said shots. You could almost say Wilson over came more odds than Luck.

Im not for ranking QBs for me there are groups and both Wilson and Luck will be part of what we call the elite group. They both have long prosperous careers ahead of them and both will win a bowl at some point.

adrian522

Panthers

Looks like Carlos Rogers will miss this weekends game (again). Steve smith looks set to play.

Unlike against the packers the 49ers probably won't have to roll out the nikel and dime packages too much against the panthers, so Tarell Brown and Tramaine Brock will get most of the work at corner back, Eric Wright and Perrish Cox are the other CB likely to see snaps.

spiralism

I had a funny feeling this time last year that Baltimore were going to shock us....was very uneasy all week. While San Diego is a prick of a matchup i have a similar funny feeling this time out and it's not a bad one. Think Manning and the boys could be out to make a statement after hearing all week why they're going to be this weeks upset victims.

I know, out of character, right?

Morrisseeee

Panthers

It's our D I'm worried about, it's banged up, Doom is gone, Miller/Wolfe/Vickerson/Moore are injured, so what's left ? and how will they perform against the Chargers ? ie. a team that can both run and pass against us !
The only silver lining is that what's left is healthy and looking at the final SD injury report, they have alot of 'questionables' !!

Our extra fitness, altitude, our ability on offense to explode into gear for a Q or two might be enough to see us through, fingers/toes/and-anything-else-I-can-find will be crossed.

matthew8

Chargers

Supposedly guaranteed rain tonight in both of the matches and maybe a thunderstorm in Seattle. Good news for Seahawks and Patriots probably.

Son Of A Vidic

Broncos

matthew8 wrote: »

Good news for Seahawks and Patriots probably.

Nope, we'd prefer about 6 feet of snow.

InTheTrees

Colts

Stormy in Seattle.

And the city is in a frenzy today.

kmart6

Panthers

Spikes out? That's not good!

TO.

Chargers

kmart6 wrote: »

Spikes out? That's not good!

BB put him on IR on Monday. Partially to do with his knee and now being reported partially to do with his attitude.