Reform Alliance "Monster Meeting" RDS 25th January

Scofflaw

The "not a party" Reform Alliance is holding a conference in the RDS on the 25th January:

THE Reform Alliance will stage its first 'ard fheis-style' rally this month as it seeks to convince high-profile candidates to join the State's newest political force, the Sunday Independent can reveal.

The one-day gathering at the RDS will be the first opportunity to gauge the appetite for a new political party.

The Alliance has been secretly planning the event over the past two months away from the glare of the media spotlight.

"We thought, 'New Year, new political ideas'. The timing seems right," Ludinda Creighton told this newspaper last night. She added: "This is not about any one individual, but about being a vehicle for new thinking."

The Alliance is currently made up of seven former Fine Gael party members; TDs Ms Creighton, Denis Naughten, Billy Timmins, Peter Mathews and Terence Flanagan and senators Paul Bradford and Fidelma Healy Eames.

However, Ms Creighton hopes to convince a number of independent TDs and former Fianna Fail politicians to join the Alliance.

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/lucinda-creightons-monster-meeting-in-rds-29889290.html

What they say about it themselves:

The Reform Conference will take place in the RDS on Saturday 25th of January. The purpose of the conference will be to open a national conversation on three key areas of reform. They are political reform, economic reform and reform of the health service. These reforms are necessary in order to rebuild trust, foster enterprise and encourage and inspire participation in the democratic institutions of the State.

The Reform Conference will be an open conversation: one which gives concerned citizens an opportunity to contribute to and engage with the debate on Ireland’s destiny for this and future generations.

We welcome everyone. And everyone will be heard.

We hope all participants when registering for the conference will submit the outline of a Reform in one of the three key areas on our website at http://reformalliance.ie/reform-conference-details.

On January 25th, we will have a live twitter stream of the reforms that have been submitted, and we will use these ideas as the basis of further conversations on reform to take place in local meetings around the country in 2014.

http://www.reformalliance.ie/reform-conference-details/

The 'three key areas' are Politics, Economy, and Health:

Politics

The powers vested in the institutions of our democracy including the electoral system, the Oireachtas, local government, the election of the Taoiseach and ministerial appointments have largely remained unchanged since 1937. The party whip system, parliamentary committees, creation of legislation, public and civil servant accountability, lobbying, political fundraising and political culture are all the products of these institutions that have seen little change in those 70 years despite profound changes to Irish society since.

The Economy

The weaknesses inherent in Ireland’s economic development over the past decade are well documented but perhaps not so well understood. Sustainable economic growth that creates long-term employment is key to the development and success of Irish society. SMEs account for more than 60% of employment in Ireland while foreign multinational investors account for just 10%. Sustainable job creation and an enterprise driven recovery can only be achieved if we create policies that help our existing exporting businesses and encourage new ones to emerge. We must build an economy and a society that does not fall victim to the failed economic policies of the past.

Health

A vibrant private health insurance sector that can fund private medicine side by side with public medicine would massively improve patient outcomes for all. Universal health insurance is an aspiration with some merit and benefit for the country, yet in order for such a regime to be a realistic proposition, a competitive health insurance market based on a fair market practice and driven by multiple competitors is the only means by which this objective can be achieved.

A flash in the pan? Something with a real future? I would assume right-wing, but does that necessarily mean pro-life and socially conservative? Populist or principled? PD 2.0?

cordially,
Scofflaw

_Kaiser_

Scofflaw wrote: »

A flash in the pan? Something with a real future? I would assume right-wing, but does that necessarily mean pro-life and socially conservative? Populist or principled? PD 2.0?

I'd say you're not far off it with that last part. There's very little here to suggest any kind of "new approach" and given it's made up of failed members of existing parties, I wouldn't really expect much myself.

I do believe there IS an appetite out there among the younger parts of the electorate (thinking 40s down) for a new approach/party, but the same faces in a new wrapper isn't it!

DazMarz

I truly believe that there is room for a new centre-left party in Ireland. More left than Labour is, but not as far left as Sinn Féin. The Liberal Party of Ireland or something.

But as mentioned... Not with the same old faces in it. New blood needed. But it would be a long road for any such new political party. They'd find it very hard to gain momentum, but it could turn out to be worth it.

The only problem also is, they'd need to have policies grounded firmly in reality. They shouldn't descend to pure populism and say things that resonate but that are totally non-feasible. But it is populist statements that get elected. It's a vicious cycle.

I'm sceptical thusfar about the Reform Alliance; they might be an answer, but as they are made up of mostly former Fine Gael members, they would probably be centre-right and would be a Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil clone. But with a bit of hope, I'd be hoping that they would be different... or maybe I'm just being too naive for my own good...

Boulevardier

Scofflaw, what is your own view? Would you count yourself a sympathiser/potential supporter?

Scofflaw

Boulevardier wrote: »

Scofflaw, what is your own view? Would you count yourself a sympathiser/potential supporter?

Hmm...I would support meaningful reform, particularly political, no matter who did it - within limits. Would I support political reform at the expense of supporting a socially conservative and economically liberal party?

That would depend on what 'socially conservative and economically liberal' meant within the particular conditions of modern Ireland. Abortion is the fundamental remaining issue that's likely to produce a genuinely socially conservative outcome, and would presumably form a defining issue for Ms Creighton, but it's not a defining issue for me. Economically liberal - again, depends on what this actually means in Ireland. It's not going to be Tea Party stuff, because that won't fly here.

Wouldn't be interested in populist 'solutions' dreamed up by the likes of the floppy-haired boy wonder, so I don't see his inclusion as a good thing - it smacks of being more interested in soundbites than real analysis, and lord knows we're not short on actual economists.

So currently reserving judgement, somewhat sceptically. And aside from political reform, the environment remains the defining issue for me - I don't see that any possible party emerging from the Reform Alliance will have anything other than the traditional Irish political "sure, isn't development great?" mentality.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Sierra Oscar

I don't see the alternative that the likes of Lucinda Creighton offer. She had no problem herself supporting budgetary measures in the past which have been roundly criticized by various societal groups, and only chose to oppose the government when it came to the issue of abortion - and at that I believe that she is way out of kilter with the vast majority of sensible thinking people in the country. This is also the lady that wants to take us into NATO and would like to see the EU developing into some sort of federal state.

Even at the last budget the Reform Alliance did not oppose the government, with some arguing that it did not go far enough. Lucinda even supported the last budget when it came to a vote.

Maybe they might be offering an alternative to those with far right economic and social views who believe that the less well off should be punished even more, but I am not sure if they will ever be in a position to appeal to more than a fringe group. Of course there seems to be a divergence of thinking within the RA itself as to what type of policies it should pursue.

Let me make a prediction: There will be a lot of discussion and debate about the Reform Alliance in the run up to the conference and as to whether it can offer this 'alternative' that has been talked about in the media. It will attract a crowd for sure. However I think it will very quickly become apparent that within the group of people that want an 'alternative', individuals within this group will have rather differing opinions as to what this 'alternative' should be.

Then you will get the Reform Alliance announcing that its TD's will contest the election on a sort of semi Independent-Reform Alliance platform, with 90% of people who say they want an 'alternative' still saying that they want an alternative and the Reform Alliance does not offer that alternative. Perhaps I sound pessimistic, but looking back on history it would not surprise me if that happens.

Also, Lucinda Creighton has openly admitted that Enda Kenny is the only thing stopping her from being involved in Fine Gael at the minute. She is using the Reform Alliance as a platform to allow her land a top job in Fine Gael when she is inevitably readmitted, because Enda wont be around forever. Lets face it, Lucinda wants to be leader of Fine Gael. She will use any platform necessary to keep her name in the spotlight while outside of the Fine Gael fold. The Reform Alliance might be a threat to the narrow right wing economic / social vote out there, but I can't see it threatening any other party really so long as the likes of Lucinda and other FG right wingers are at the helm.

Fair play to them for trying though, it is not an easy task what they are trying to achieve.

For Reals

If a party, a party which consists of people who think Fianna Fail and Fine Gael are not right wing or Christian enough. Nice.

Loafing Oaf

Scofflaw wrote: »

Hmm...I would support meaningful reform, particularly political, no matter who did it - within limits. Would I support political reform at the expense of supporting a socially conservative and economically liberal party?

That would depend on what 'socially conservative and economically liberal' meant within the particular conditions of modern Ireland. Abortion is the fundamental remaining issue that's likely to produce a genuinely socially conservative outcome, and would presumably form a defining issue for Ms Creighton, but it's not a defining issue for me.

I strongly suspect the 'social conservatism' of this mooted new party would be overwhelmingly a matter of rhetoric and posturing. Lucinda Creighton is savvy enough to know the Irish people do not want to roll back the liberal agenda, even if it's something she aspires to personally (which I highly doubt). On abortion, future developments (whether further liberalisation or, in the fantasies of pro-lifers, restriction) can only come about through constitutional referendum, on which the positions of individual parties or politicians are ultimately neither here nor there.

smellslikeshoes

I think their reason for leaving FG will be their own undoing. I just don't think there is enough support for a socially conservative party. Even if they dropped their opposition to abortion and went in an Economically Conservative Socially Liberal direction they just won't be able to shake the fact they came into being because they didn't support the Protection of Life During Pregnancy Act.

oscarBravo

It seems Jim Corr has been invited to address the conference. Clearly, whatever vibe they're going for, it doesn't include credibility.

Nodin

oscarBravo wrote: »

It seems Jim Corr has been invited to address the conference. Clearly, whatever vibe they're going for, it doesn't include credibility.

....I think that turned out to be a hoax.

touts

DazMarz wrote: »

I truly believe that there is room for a new centre-left party in Ireland. More left than Labour is, but not as far left as Sinn Féin. The Liberal Party of Ireland or something.

But as mentioned... Not with the same old faces in it. New blood needed. But it would be a long road for any such new political party. They'd find it very hard to gain momentum, but it could turn out to be worth it.

The only problem also is, they'd need to have policies grounded firmly in reality. They shouldn't descend to pure populism and say things that resonate but that are totally non-feasible. But it is populist statements that get elected. It's a vicious cycle.

I'm sceptical thusfar about the Reform Alliance; they might be an answer, but as they are made up of mostly former Fine Gael members, they would probably be centre-right and would be a Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil clone. But with a bit of hope, I'd be hoping that they would be different... or maybe I'm just being too naive for my own good...

I don't think there is any need or demand for another left party. In fact the Left is overcrowded, split and divided. The left needs fewer parties to unify the vote not more parties.

Lets look at how the parties (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_parties_in_the_Republic_of_Ireland) divide left/right

Right:
Party & Elected representatives
Fine Gael 648
Fianna Fáil 444
Christian Solidarity Party 0
Direct Democracy Ireland 0
Catholic Democrats (The National Party) 0

If you consider that Fine Gael and Fianna Fail are now toxic brands people are very unhappy with while Christian Solidarity and Catholic Democrats are not appealing to those on the right who are not strongly christian (contrary to what the left wing media have been spinning recently being right wing is actually defined by economic and social beliefs not on your ability to quote the bible. I'm centre right and I certainly don't believe in any higher power than the one we elect). That leaves Direct Democracy who seem to believe in a mix of swiss style direct democracy and Transcendental Meditation and the Science of Creative Intelligence whatever conspiracy theory you're having yourself. So there is clearly a gap for a party that believes in centre right economic and social policies but not the fundamentalist christian/conspiracy beliefs of the other parties currently positioned in the "right" space. At the moment a right wing voter has to choose between the failed greed of Fianna Fail, the failed incompetence of Fine Gael or the religious fundamentalists. A secular centre right party would pick up a huge vote.

Meanwhile on the left we have:

Party & Elected representatives
Labour Party 278
Sinn Féin 144
Green Party 17
Socialist Party 8
Workers and Unemployed Action Group 8
People Before Profit Alliance 6
United Left 4
Workers' Party 2
South Kerry Independent Alliance 2
éirígí 1
Fís Nua 1
Republican Sinn Féin 1
Communist Party of Ireland 0
Letterkenny Residents Party 0
Seniors Solidarity Party 0
Socialist Workers Party 0
Irish Republican Socialist Party 0
Irish Socialist Network 0
Pirate Party Ireland 0
Republican Sinn Féin 0

And that doesn't include the various left wing independents who also occupy that space. Another Left Wing party would just further dilute that vote. What is needed is a large scale merger and consolidation of left parties NOT another party. Sure some of the parties are just as toxic as Fianna Fail and Fine Gael but there are too many alternatives for a left voter to move to. In the next election it looks like there will be a meltdown of the Labour vote but unlike Fianna Fail and Fine Gael voters the departing Labour voter has a vast array of alternatives to vote for.

As to this Reform Alliance and their Monster meeting. I think it will be interesting to see what the tone is and who the speakers are. Will the catholic fundamentalists rise to the top or will it be a more secular party for both believers and non-believers. Personally I'll be watching with interest and I hope that any party emerging from it will be secular in nature.

spank_inferno

What is "reformed" about a fundamentalist theocratic party?

The opposite of the PD's by the way.

raymon

Scofflaw wrote: »

A flash in the pan? Something with a real future? I would assume right-wing, but does that necessarily mean pro-life and socially conservative? Populist or principled? PD 2.0?

I don't think Reform Alliance will be a flash in the pan and will actually prove to be quite popular.

I would like to see them succeed in mopping up the right wing , catholic , pro life , socially conservative, populist, parish pump polishing voters that Fianna Fail have lost.

They have emerged from the Protection of Life During Pregnancy Act and will be starting straight away with a populist agenda "We welcome everyone. And everyone will be heard."

They do have an Achilles heel though. One of the pillars of RA is Fidelma Healy Eames - a politician whose grotesque Flynn-esque arrogance and sense of entitlement has not been seen since the dying days the last Fianna Fail government.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/analysis/senators-bad-news-comes-in-threes-203268.html

I wish the movement luck and good fortune. I will probably never vote for a right wing , catholic , pro life , socially conservative, populist, parish pump polishing party , but good luck all the same.

stevedublin

touts wrote: »

Right:
.
.
Direct Democracy Ireland 0
.
.

Direct democracy are considered Right wing?
:eek:

For Forks Sake

stevedublin wrote: »

Direct democracy are considered Right wing?
:eek:

http://redheadplace.blogspot.ie/2013/03/ben-gilroy-and-far-right.html

Sir Digby Chicken Caesar

right, but according to the socialist workers party barack obama is dangerously right wing so... couple of grains of salt there

Loafing Oaf

raymon wrote: »

I don't think Reform Alliance will be a flash in the pan and will actually prove to be quite popular.

That's assuming they do become a political party, which is far from certain as yet. IMO it's quite likely the object of their current activities is to spook Enda into letting them back into FG. As someone on p.ie pointed out, if they were intent on becoming a proper party, would they not be looking to run candidates in the Euro elections, even accepting they have little or no chance of success, in order to get their brand out there ahead of the next GE. I think if Enda calls their bluff, we will most likely see the RA contesting the next GE in the form it currently exists, i.e. a loose alliance of FG 'rebels' still hoping to be readmitted to the party in the next Dail.

raymon

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

That's assuming they do become a political party, which is far from certain as yet. IMO it's quite likely the object of their current activities is to spook Enda into letting them back into FG. As someone on p.ie pointed out, if they were intent on becoming a proper party, would they not be looking to run candidates in the Euro elections, even accepting they have little or no chance of success, in order to get their brand out there ahead of the next GE. I think if Enda calls their bluff, we will most likely see the RA contesting the next GE in the form it currently exists, i.e. a loose alliance of FG 'rebels' still hoping to be readmitted to the party in the next Dail.

You could be right , but the likes of Healy-Eames would have no chance of rejoining. Unlikely for Matthews to rejoin FG either.

Brussels Sprout

Kaiser2000 wrote: »

I'd say you're not far off it with that last part. There's very little here to suggest any kind of "new approach" and given it's made up of failed members of existing parties, I wouldn't really expect much myself.

Is it possible to start a political party without using existing TDs though? Plenty have tried in the past but it makes it infinitely more difficult. The only alternative is if a group of celebrity candidates come together (which nearly happened immediately prior to the last election as far as i know).

Like a lot of people on this forum I'd love to see a socially liberal & fiscally conservative party. I'm not too confident of seeing that with a party founded by pro-life TDs.

Mr.Micro

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Is it possible to start a political party without using existing TDs though? Plenty have tried in the past but it makes it infinitely more difficult. The only alternative is if a group of celebrity candidates come together (which nearly happened immediately prior to the last election as far as i know).

Like a lot of people on this forum I'd love to see a socially liberal & fiscally conservative party. I'm not too confident of seeing that with a party founded by pro-life TDs.

It will be jolly interesting if this party does get off the ground. It will be be a hotch potch of political none fits, that are not sure what their agendas are. It is hard to see any cohesiveness then, or common policies, that as a party, it might pursue. At the moment, at least, it is refreshing to see an alternative party trying to emerge.

Brussels Sprout

Just heard Billy Timmins on the radio there. Pat Kenny asked him what government decisions he was specifically against. "Abortion". Pat asked him what else besides that leading to Timmins rambling away while not saying anything concrete before "...If I could just get back to the abortion issue"

sigh

Brussels Sprout

Also what are the odds of this meeting being hijacked by pro-lifers?

Last year Declan Ganley organised a series of townhall meetings which masqueraded as being about political reform but were in fact glorified anti-abortion rallies being chearleaded by the economist Ray Kinsella (who it turned out was a rabid pro-lifer).

oscarBravo

Nodin wrote: »

....I think that turned out to be a hoax.

Aww.

Scofflaw

For Forks Sake wrote: »

http://redheadplace.blogspot.ie/2013/03/ben-gilroy-and-far-right.html

Sir Digby Chicken Caesar wrote: »

right, but according to the socialist workers party barack obama is dangerously right wing so... couple of grains of salt there

And even more just a case of "populist likes populist".

Loafing Oaf wrote:

As someone on p.ie pointed out, if they were intent on becoming a proper party, would they not be looking to run candidates in the Euro elections, even accepting they have little or no chance of success, in order to get their brand out there ahead of the next GE.

I would say that he timing of this 'rally' still leaves time for the announcement of MEP candidates long enough before the euro elections (the locals, no, but the euro elections yes). There would have to be some evidence of interest on the 25th, though, because the candidates would be people other than the TDs of the Reform Alliance itself. Interesting to see if Mullen or Ganley get a mention as possibles, which would tie the thing very firmly to the pro-life stance. Someone like McWilliams, on the other hand, would send a completely different message.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Nodin

oscarBravo wrote: »

Aww.

There's still Fidelma for some quality at the occasion.

They've apparently invited McDowell, which means nobody involved must have had dealings with him before.

PopePalpatine

I very much doubt they'd be willing to reform patronage of schools. :rolleyes:

Annasopra

DazMarz wrote: »

I truly believe that there is room for a new centre-left party in Ireland. More left than Labour is, but not as far left as Sinn Féin. The Liberal Party of Ireland or something.

.

Agreed I think Catherine Murphy, Roisin Shortall, Patrick Nulty, Thomas Pringle, John Halligan, Finian McGrath and Tommy Broughan could come together and form something. I have a feeling that a lot of people working for or supporting Patrick Nulty may actually do this.

grainnewhale

Kaiser2000 wrote: »

I'd say you're not far off it with that last part. There's very little here to suggest any kind of "new approach" and given it's made up of failed members of existing parties, I wouldn't really expect much myself.

I do believe there IS an appetite out there among the younger parts of the electorate (thinking 40s down) for a new approach/party, but the same faces in a new wrapper isn't it!

Or people who took a stand for what they believe. A rare trait in a politican.
But they wont be getting my vote.

edanto

Is Lucinda still a member of FG?

Just curious.

Sierra Oscar

edanto wrote: »

Is Lucinda still a member of FG?

Yes, and apparently she has no intention of resigning as an ordinary member.

Ms Creighton said she will run as an Independent candidate attached to the new 'Reform Alliance' group in the next general election, but insisted she hadn't "even contemplated" resigning her Fine Gael membership.

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/fine-gael-grassroots-calling-for-creighton-to-resign-29676203.html

He also referred to her intention to stand as an Independent candidate at the next election associated with the Reform Alliance while still retaining membership of Fine Gael.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/creighton-says-she-retains-strong-grassroots-support-from-fg-members-1.1568673

No surprise really, how could she be a leader of Fine Gael if she resigns from the party?

edanto

Exactly. And if RA becomes a party, that will invalidate her membership of FG.... which might well burn her bridges. That could be their rationale for 'we're not a party yet', so that they still have a lifeboat.

Anyways, fair play to them trying something new - I guess we'll see how it pans out.

Loafing Oaf

edanto wrote: »

Exactly. And if RA becomes a party, that will invalidate her membership of FG.... which might well burn her bridges. That could be their rationale for 'we're not a party yet', so that they still have a lifeboat.

Anyways, fair play to them trying something new - I guess we'll see how it pans out.

But as long as the RA retain this ambiguity about their status, noone of any substance outside the core group of TDs is going to get on board, as there will be this lingering suspicion that the whole thing is just a gambit in their battle of wits with Enda Kenny, and fundamentally they all just want to get back in with Fine Gael. Billy Timmins's radio interview the other day did nothing to dispel this impression, as the only point on which he seemed interested in differentiating himself from the mother party was abortion. IMO if they are going to take the plunge Lucinda will have to make the call pretty soon, if not at the 'monster meeting' then shortly afterward, or it will be too late to mount a serious challenge at the next GE.

raymon

It turns out that the "Michael McDowell is expected to speak" story is a hoax too.

Those guys in the Irish Independent are such jokers with all those made up stories they write.

They had me fooled.

Nodin

"Senior Independents in Leinster House are set to spurn an invitation to attend the first Reform Alliance conference, dealing a blow to the effort by the dissident Fine Gael group to expand its political base.
TDs Stephen Donnelly and Shane Ross, and Senators Katherine Zappone and and Feargal Quinn, have all said they will not attend the event in Dublin on Saturday week. Neither will they be joining the alliance."

"Former PD leader Michael McDowell has also said he will not attend the conference. "
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/top-independents-spurn-invite-to-first-reform-alliance-conference-1.1654209

I had a hard time imagining Donnelly and Ross joining up with a bunch of social conservatives - evidently so did they.

harryr711

So basically it's now just a meeting of FG TDs and senators who left the parliamentary party over the abortion issue?

trashcan

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Also, Lucinda Creighton has openly admitted that Enda Kenny is the only thing stopping her from being involved in Fine Gael at the minute. She is using the Reform Alliance as a platform to allow her land a top job in Fine Gael when she is inevitably readmitted, because Enda wont be around forever. Lets face it, Lucinda wants to be leader of Fine Gael. She will use any platform necessary to keep her name in the spotlight while outside of the Fine Gael fold.
QUOTE]

Bingo. That's how I see it anyway.

spank_inferno

harryr711 wrote: »

So basically it's now just a meeting of FG TDs and senators who left the parliamentary party over the abortion issue?

That's what it was always going to be.

A fundamentalist Christian political movement was always going to be limited in the amount of established politicians it would attract.
Many that might like too are too beholden to their party.

gandalf

Maybe we should change their name to the Monster Raving Reform Alliance.

Loafing Oaf

trashcan wrote: »

She is using the Reform Alliance as a platform to allow her land a top job in Fine Gael when she is inevitably readmitted, because Enda wont be around forever. Lets face it, Lucinda wants to be leader of Fine Gael. She will use any platform necessary to keep her name in the spotlight while outside of the Fine Gael fold.

This may well be her game, but if it is she is very misguided. FG grassroots like loyal party men and women who keep their heads down and get on with the job, hence Sinon Coveney being a strong favourite to succeed Enda. Even those who sympathised with her stance on abortion will have no time for her monster meetings, Daily Mail columns etc.

IMO the thing for Lucinda to do now is to announce she is not standing at the next GE, go off and have her baby, and hope to come back in ten years, when she'll still be relatively young, but Enda Kenny and controversy over abortion will be long in the past.

nesf

Scofflaw wrote: »

PD 2.0?

One of the big things about the PDs when they were formed was that they weren't social conservatives when the major parties were and a lot of the public weren't. There's a different dynamic here, this party wants to be more socially conservative than the main parties when that's a minority position in the public. About their only selling point is a hardline stance on abortion maybe?

touts

Is this meeting actually going ahead. All talk of it seems to have disappeared. No one seems to be going to it. No one seems to want to speak at it. Does anyone know how many tickets have been sold for it?

Scofflaw

nesf wrote: »

One of the big things about the PDs when they were formed was that they weren't social conservatives when the major parties were and a lot of the public weren't. There's a different dynamic here, this party wants to be more socially conservative than the main parties when that's a minority position in the public. About their only selling point is a hardline stance on abortion maybe?

Mm. We've had a series of flashes in the pan based around the abortion issue and a socially conservative response to it.

I think that there's probably a bubble effect at work there, where because so many of the people you meet are of a similar persuasion and equally passionate about the issue, you find it easy to believe that you must have majority or at least widespread support, because most of us find it really very hard to believe that we're in a small minority when it comes to something we feel passionately about - or at least, we feel, surely the only reason we're in a minority is because the majority have been misinformed. It's simply not possible, our minds tell us, that the majority can possibly have actually considered our arguments and still reject them!

cordially,
Scofflaw

nesf

Scofflaw wrote: »

Mm. We've had a series of flashes in the pan based around the abortion issue and a socially conservative response to it.

I think that there's probably a bubble effect at work there, where because so many of the people you meet are of a similar persuasion and equally passionate about the issue, you find it easy to believe that you must have majority or at least widespread support, because most of us find it really very hard to believe that we're in a small minority when it comes to something we feel passionately about - or at least, we feel, surely the only reason we're in a minority is because the majority have been misinformed. It's simply not possible, our minds tell us, that the majority can possibly have actually considered our arguments and still reject them!

cordially,
Scofflaw

I've family who got texts and calls about (free) buses up to Dublin for those marches (Legion of Mary members) all the way down in rural parts of Cork. There is a socially conservative element, especially with regard to abortion, but be careful when thinking about sizes and numbers, I've never seen marches organised so well and quickly as these ones. It wasn't a case of having way more supporters than say the anti-property tax crowd but the level of organisation is on a different scale. They scoured every inch of the country for people for those marches. If you did that for most hot-button issues you'd have an intimidating crowd outside the Dáil.

Scofflaw

nesf wrote: »

I've family who got texts and calls about (free) buses up to Dublin for those marches (Legion of Mary members) all the way down in rural parts of Cork. There is a socially conservative element, especially with regard to abortion, but be careful when thinking about sizes and numbers, I've never seen marches organised so well and quickly as these ones. It wasn't a case of having way more supporters than say the anti-property tax crowd but the level of organisation is on a different scale. They scoured every inch of the country for people for those marches. If you did that for most hot-button issues you'd have an intimidating crowd outside the Dáil.

Unfortunately for, say, the anti-property tax people, there isn't any US funding pouring in to buy them organisational capacity. And unfortunately for the anti-abortion crowd, the ability to get their supporters out doesn't increase the number of actual supporters (and their visible display of support is probably off-putting to the more neutral), and so makes little difference at the ballot box, while their own apparent strength and fervour fools them into thinking they're some kind of growing movement or silent majority. All very Tea Partyish, really.

cordially,
Scofflaw

jmayo

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

This may well be her game, but if it is she is very misguided. FG grassroots like loyal party men and women who keep their heads down and get on with the job, hence Sinon Coveney being a strong favourite to succeed Enda. Even those who sympathised with her stance on abortion will have no time for her monster meetings, Daily Mail columns etc.

IMO the thing for Lucinda to do now is to announce she is not standing at the next GE, go off and have her baby, and hope to come back in ten years, when she'll still be relatively young, but Enda Kenny and controversy over abortion will be long in the past.

I think her chances of ever leading FG have gone.

The likes of Coveney has climbed up the pecking order, hell even Varadker if he could keep his gob shut and then there are new capable looking young guns like Simon Harris coming along.

As it was I can see how she would rub some people up the wrong way.
Then she turned her back on the party and even if she disagreed with the leader she should have stayed loyal to the party.
She didn't and that will never be forgotten by some.

It is the same for most all parties.

Anyway I would never like to see someone so socially conservative in a major position of power in this country again.
It took us long enough to get where we are and away from the church's pulpits.

And this so called quasi party appears to be a majority of those who are socially conservative and fanboys/girls of the vatican.
They will find it hard to lose that tag.

Sierra Oscar

Scofflaw wrote: »

Mm. We've had a series of flashes in the pan based around the abortion issue and a socially conservative response to it.

I think that there's probably a bubble effect at work there, where because so many of the people you meet are of a similar persuasion and equally passionate about the issue, you find it easy to believe that you must have majority or at least widespread support, because most of us find it really very hard to believe that we're in a small minority when it comes to something we feel passionately about - or at least, we feel, surely the only reason we're in a minority is because the majority have been misinformed. It's simply not possible, our minds tell us, that the majority can possibly have actually considered our arguments and still reject them!

cordially,
Scofflaw

I really don't think those that believe abortion should be allowed in limited circumstances, to preserve life, are in the minority. The Iona Institute and similar organizations were warning the government that they would feel the wrath of the electorate if they went ahead with the Protection of Life During Pregnancies Bill. The opinion polls done since then show that government support seems to be holding steady, and SF (who think the bill should have went even further) have seen their support rise somewhat. Fianna Fáil, who could not agree a stance on the issue, have not really seen their support rise since then.

It is not coming up on the doors either for those already canvassing for the local elections.

That is what the likes of Lucinda Creighton are against. Abortion in general is a different issue entirely. I think she is out of step with the majority of the electorate on this issue.

Triangla

Looks like a bunch of rats jumping ship. FG will be decimated in the next General election. I say that as a non-party voter.

Fidelma Healy Eames is a part of this so I say no no no.

She has her own thread here, she represents only one thing I agree with in politics and that is female participation.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=82302565

spank_inferno

Triangla wrote: »

Looks like a bunch of rats jumping ship. FG will be decimated in the next General election. I say that as a non-party voter.

Fidelma Healy Eames is a part of this so I say no no no.

She has her own thread here, she represents only one thing I agree with in politics and that is female participation.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=82302565

Will FG return fewer seats in 2016.
Yes.... Almost certainly.

Several of their seats were the last seat in a 5-seater, sneaking through on transfers.

Fewer seats next time round plus the usual incumbency backlash will lose these seats.

Its inevitable & hardly a shock to anyone.


Putting my prediction hat on, I will say that the "reform?" Alliance will not exist in 2016.
Timmons is retiring & FHE is just a senator & the others will meekly return to the fold.... Or at worst run as an Ind/FG candidate.

By the next government it will be like this whole opus dei/ reform alliance thing never happened.

Loafing Oaf

spank_inferno wrote: »

Will FG return fewer seats in 2016.
Yes.... Almost certainly.

Several of their seats were the last seat in a 5-seater, sneaking through on transfers.

Fewer seats next time round plus the usual incumbency backlash will lose these seats.

Its inevitable & hardly a shock to anyone.

Plus it's highly unlikely any of the 'abortion rebels' will have a better chance of retaining their seat outside of FG, and I'm sure they know that better than anyone, hence their seeming desperation to get back on board.

raymon

spank_inferno wrote: »

Will FG return fewer seats in 2016.
Yes.... Almost certainly.

Several of their seats were the last seat in a 5-seater, sneaking through on transfers.

Fewer seats next time round plus the usual incumbency backlash will lose these seats.

Its inevitable & hardly a shock to anyone.


Putting my prediction hat on, I will say that the "reform?" Alliance will not exist in 2016.
Timmons is retiring & FHE is just a senator & the others will meekly return to the fold.... Or at worst run as an Ind/FG candidate.

By the next government it will be like this whole opus dei/ reform alliance thing never happened.

Healy Eames and Matthews are gone from FG for sure. They will never be allowed back in , if their kicks in the ar$# out the door are anything to go by.