Aurora Prospects 2014

maquiladora

An X class flare and CME from a large earth-facing sunspot (1944) today.

From Accuweather Astronomy's facebook :

The first CME model run has come out and it shows a significant hit to Earth. Prediction model wind speeds exceed 900 km/s expected early on January 9th. If this is correct, we could be looking at a widespread aurora outbreak. A severe geomagnetic storm. We are awaiting a second answer from WSA's model to compare. Keep checking back with us for the potential! Things are getting exciting here at AWA!

Spaceweather.com about the sunspot and then the flare/CME.

One of the biggest sunspots in years is crossing the center of the solar disk, putting Earth in the way of potential eruptions. Rocky Raybell photographed the active region named "AR1944" yesterday from his backyard in Keller, Washington:



The sprawling sunspot contains dozens of dark cores, the largest big enough to swallow Earth three times over. This makes it an easy target for amateur solar telescopes -- or even regular cameras. Raybell used an SX40 digital camera on a tripod whole holding a Baader solar filer over the lens to capture his image.

Although AR1944 has been mostly quiet for days, flares are in the offing. The sunspot has an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that could erupt at any time. NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% chance of M-class flares and a 30% chance of X-flares on Jan. 7th.

....

X-FLARE: Giant sunspot AR1944 erupted on Jan 7th at approximately 1832 UT, producing a powerful X1-class solar flare. First-look coronagraph images from the STEREO-Ahead spacecraft appear to show a coronal mass ejection (CME) emerging from the blast site. If so, the CME is almost certainly heading for Earth. Stay tuned for updates as more data arrive from the NASA-ESA Heliophysics Fleet.

Fingers crossed for a low latitude aurora.

Conmaicne Mara

Am guessing we would have to look North if it were to happen? Am in the unfortunate position of having a fairly large hill to my North.

maquiladora

Early NOAA prediction is for a G2, so our chances of seeing anything may not be great, that could change as more information comes in. The sunspot is still active and facing earth so another large flare/CME is possible too (50% chance of an X class flare in the next 24 hours).

2014-01-07 22:11 UTC CME Impacts Expected January 9

SWPC Forecasters are anticipating G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm conditions to occur on January 9, followed by G1 (Minor) levels January 10. The source of this pulse is an Earth-directed CME launched from centrally-located Region 1944 at 1832 UTC (1:32 p.m. EST) today January 7. This forecast is pending the acquisition of some data as yet unavailable, and may be updated. In addition, the current S1 (Minor) Solar Radiation Storm is likely to linger for another 24 hours. At the Sun, Region 1944 remains well-placed and energetic. Watch here for more as conditions warrant.

John.Icy

Hallelujah, something to watch. Have been watching sunspots and such since 2008 and 1944 is easily the biggest sunspot I've seen, just huge.

I'd imagine a G2 is a bit weak of a prediction surely, with a 900km/s predicted speed??? I guess it's a fickle event and we'll have t owait and see.

Pity I'm in Dublin now and no longer in the countryside, for that reason expect a huge aurora that can't be seen with the bright lights of Dublin city.

maquiladora

NOAA now say they expect more of a partial rather than direct CME impact, but up to G3 is possible.

Iancar29

John.Icy wrote: »

Hallelujah, something to watch. Have been watching sunspots and such since 2008 and 1944 is easily the biggest sunspot I've seen, just huge.

I'd imagine a G2 is a bit weak of a prediction surely, with a 900km/s predicted speed??? I guess it's a fickle event and we'll have t owait and see.

Pity I'm in Dublin now and no longer in the countryside, for that reason expect a huge aurora that can't be seen with the bright lights of Dublin city.

Not everywhere in Dublin is horrible ... i got this back in October 2012 just up at St.Margarets .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kf7C4P5KEPY

ALot of timing is gonna have to go well for us for us in Europe as best cloud free chances seem to be thursday evening.

Ill be on the bz an kp charts like a hawk for the next 24hrs

maquiladora

NOAA sounding more confident about G3 in the latest update.

2014-01-08 12:30 UTC G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storming Expected

SWPC Forecasters are anticipating G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm conditions to occur on January 9 and 10. The source of this disturbance is a fairly fast Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) launched from centrally-located Region 1944 at 1832 UTC (1:32 p.m. EST) on January 7. Full evaluation and modeling of this event has refined the forecast and indicates a fairly direct interaction with Earth, with the WSA-Enlil model putting arrival mid-morning UTC on January 9 (very early morning EST). In addition, the S2 (Moderate) Solar Radiation Storm associated with this event is currently near, but below, the S3 (Strong) threshold, with values leveling off at this time. At the Sun, Region 1944 remains well-placed and energetic. Updates here as this event progresses.

Space Weather Message Code: WATA50
Serial Number: 48
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 08 1214 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Jan 08: None (Below G1) Jan 09: G3 (Strong) Jan 10: G3 (Strong)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

Need to keep an eye out to see if another large flare/cme happens today too, as that could really increase our chances of a proper lightshow. Fingers crossed.

Mince Pie

Sorry to be a pain but lurker here and not up on the lingo but its a lifelong ambition to see the Aurora. Went to Aberdeen a few years ago in Feb in hope of seeing it.
So what would be the chances of a sighting in Meath area on Thursday?

maquiladora

Mince Pie wrote: »

Sorry to be a pain but lurker here and not up on the lingo but its a lifelong ambition to see the Aurora. Went to Aberdeen a few years ago in Feb in hope of seeing it.
So what would be the chances of a sighting in Meath area on Thursday?

At the moment it looks like it would be a bit borderline for Ireland, obviously the further north you are the better, but we won't really know for sure until it starts arriving what the chances of seeing anything here will be, we might be lucky, but even then we need the weather to play ball too.

If we get another large CME following quickly in the wake of this one then our chances go up.

Iancar29

Mince Pie wrote: »

Sorry to be a pain but lurker here and not up on the lingo but its a lifelong ambition to see the Aurora. Went to Aberdeen a few years ago in Feb in hope of seeing it.
So what would be the chances of a sighting in Meath area on Thursday?

They have been seen from Kerry in the passed few good storms when clouds were completely clear , so yes , meath is a decent spot. Still need to be away from lights and preferably up a hill.

Keep an eye on this page here , http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/

two main things to watch for is the KP level ( 5+ is good for anything below ulster ) and BZ direction .. ( 10 + south is good for anything below ulster ) .



A few notes .

1. If all goes well , you still may not see much with the naked eye this far south. When i saw them from here back in OCt 2012 i knew what to look for after my sweden trip . On the horizon i saw a quite faint curtain of pale white . I knew straight away that was them .

2. SLR cameras on long exposures bring out the colours.

My settings would be usually.

F3.5 ( or faster )
ISO 3200
25 seconds .

So yeah , just keep an eye out for pale white curtains.

If your up in like donegal somewhere youll see the green with the naked eye.

Mince Pie

Thanks so much for being gentle with me. Have a friend in Donegal but alas I also have to work.

Daniel O Donnel

Hi, going out for a look tonight as it seems to be the best chance of clear skies this week. Might go to Glenvar or Horn head. Fingers crossed. _

maquiladora

CME seems to be reaching the ACE satellite now.



Edit : Or maybe not.

Elmer Blooker

Conmaicne Mara wrote: »

Am guessing we would have to look North if it were to happen? Am in the unfortunate position of having a fairly large hill to my North.

not necessarily, I saw the Aurora looking east and west as well as north during the fantastic displays in October and November 2003.

FrDougalMcguire

Any sightings anyone???

maquiladora

Solar Radiation up to S3 now.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX3
Serial Number: 27
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 08 2334 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Begin Time: 2014 Jan 08 2320 UTC
NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong

Rikand

Any joy for anyone ?

maquiladora

Either the CME is slower than expected or it didn't pack much of a punch.

Also, no sign of any new big flares, in fact solar activity has dropped way down today.

-_-

guttenberg

So are we unlikely to see anything out tonight?

maquiladora

guttenberg wrote: »

So are we unlikely to see anything out tonight?

We'll find out later.

2014-01-09 12:36 UTC Awaiting CME Arrival

The ongoing Solar Radiation Storm peaked briefly just above the S3 (Strong) threshold but is now in decay and currently at S2 (Moderate) levels. Enhancement back across the S3 level is possible with the anticipated coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival. The CME, originally expected to arrive around 0800 UTC (3:00 a.m. EST) today, January 9, is now slightly overdue. However, pre-arrival signatures from EPAM data on the ACE spacecraft still show this transient en route. G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm activity is still expected on January 9 and 10. Updates here as this event unfolds.

weisses

Thanks for this thread Maq .... find it very interesting but would possibly miss these events if it wasn't for someone highlighting it here

Rikand

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/travelnews/10560789/Northern-Lights-sightings-possible-over-Britain.html

^^ Scientists have informed the telegraph that southern wales could be in for a sight to remember tonight - should be good for all the rest of us so as well in that case!

RebelButtMunch

Saying on tv that it is due to arrive from now until 4am

lolie

Looks like we have impact but seems to be a lot weaker than expected:(
Still early yet so may pick up later.

blackbird99

bbc2 now last night of stargazing

maquiladora

Very late, but the CME arrival will happen soon. Could be weaker than expected though due to it moving more slowly.

Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
Serial Number: 144
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 09 1951 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2014 Jan 09 2000 UTC
Valid To: 2014 Jan 09 2030 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2014 Jan 09 1932 UTC

lolie

Worth watching Stargazing live on bbc2 now as Liz bonnin will be reporting on the Aurora live from several thousand feet up in an airplane.
Lucky bitch:)

blackbird99

were just saying on stargazing they expect it between now and 4 in the morning

Conmaicne Mara

Considering a walk up the hill behind us, but it doesn't appear too clear out.

maquiladora

blackbird99 wrote: »

were just saying on stargazing they expect it between now and 4 in the morning

Just arrived. Doesn't look to be very strong yet anyway.

Pretzill

maquiladora wrote: »

Just arrived. Doesn't look to be very strong yet anyway.

It's cloudy here in the northwest hoping for it to clear up. Just saw Liz Bonnin on Stargazing fantastic pics lucky divil...