Manchester United Talk/Gossip/Rumours Thread - 2013/14

Your Airbag

Mitch Connor wrote: »

From what I am told it is United from last season vs United from this season.

So a full season vs half a season - not a dissimilar set. Do you think Moyes' approach will differ significantly over the remainder of the season?

Fergie had Scholes and an in form Carrick too so those central areas that are not covered as much under Moyes were easier to control with those players.

There is no doubt this style was better under Fergie than Moyes but the players part in this (injuries, lack of form, averageness and seemingly I dont give a feck attitude) can no longer be ignored.

Mitch Connor

kippy wrote: »

What creche came up with the article and did the drawings?

So you don't like the info, so belittle the source of it. Fair enough.

kippy

Mitch Connor wrote: »

So you don't like the info, so belittle the source of it. Fair enough.

The information is completely irrelevant for numerous reasons, none moreso than the ones I've outlined (sorry I edited the post above, you may have missed it)
I am sure there were seasons in Fergies reign where the relavant graphs would close enough mirror moyes past few months with differing results being another one.

Maximus Alexander

kippy wrote: »

But to make an analysis that one graphs tactics is better than the other in isolation is complete nonsense.

To be fair, it's not exactly in isolation. One might look to results to corroborate that sentiment. Not that I necessarily think the heat maps tell us much.

Soldie

Can people stop taking the bait re. Donovan, McGeady and Cattermole? The person suggesting them is clearly a WUP.

Chazz Michael Michaels

Mitch Connor wrote: »

From what I am told it is United from last season vs United from this season.

So a full season vs half a season - not a dissimilar set. Do you think Moyes' approach will differ significantly over the remainder of the season?

Fair enough. For those of you who don't know much about statistics, this means that the Moyes dataset has a larger 'standard error' than the Fergie one. Meaning larger confidence intervals for the former. Meaning if you pulled a random heatspot map from the Fergie dataset, that individual draw is more likely to look like the aggregate Fergie map, than if you did the same thing with the Moyes dataset.

So it can be said there can be more confidence (often described in percentage terms) in the Fergie map than the Moyes one.

Is this an abuse? No. Lacking the necessary detail? Yes. If this was sent to me, id send it back, asking for info on confidence intervals, etc. Or I would ask for the dataset and calculate them myself. I wouldn't accuse them of abuse.

My career is statistics, by the way.

Mitch Connor

You could also look at the heat maps for the half season (vs season) and the ones from the other article (up to October 25th) showing where passes to the final third originate from and where Rooney receives the ball. Massive change in both in comparison to last season.

Your Airbag

The article also states the following

This isn't to say that a change in strategy can't work, but it certainly hasn't so far. Moyes inherited a team sorely lacking in both central midfield and wing talent. Last season's Manchester United team won the league despite a very mediocre underlying TSR. It seems like some combination of Sir Alex Ferguson magic and an abnormally healthy Robin van Persie were largely responsible for that success.

It's almost like Ferguson was a great cinematographer, and when he left Manchester United, he took all his special lenses and filters with him, and now we see the team for what they are: above-average. The curtain has been pulled back and there stands Tom Cleverley where Paul Scholes once stood.

All of which is sensible and clearly points out that there is more than just Moyes as a reason for our poor run.

Shame you only pinched the graphs from the article and didn't link the whole thing so we could see it was not laying the blame solely at Moyes feet as you attempted to do with the graphs.

kippy

Mitch Connor wrote: »

You could also look at the heat maps for the half season (vs season) and the ones from the other article (up to October 25th) showing where passes to the final third originate from and where Rooney receives the ball. Massive change in both in comparison to last season.

But thats completely pointless.
If you want to try that you need to look at ALL the seasons prior to that as well for the same period and see if this season is different to all of them or just to last season. Then you can determine whether last season was different to the prior one etc etc and draw whatever conclusions you want to draw from a pointless set of data.
The data when viewed in isolation (and thats what it is, not matter what the footballing results) is also pointless without taking into account other factors such as:
1. Player injuries,
2. Player form.
3. Set of fixtures played.
4. any other number of variables.............

TheTownie

Your Airbag wrote: »

The article also states the following



All of which is sensible and clearly points out that there is more than just Moyes as a reason for our poor run.

Shame you only pinched the graphs from the article and didn't link the whole thing so we could see it was not laying the blame solely at Moyes feet as you attempted to do with the graphs.

The images he posted were from twitter. The best you can accuse him of is being too lazy to find the article.

kippy

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

To be fair, it's not exactly in isolation. One might look to results to corroborate that sentiment. Not that I necessarily think the heat maps tell us much.

Its in isolation to all the other more important factors that I have outlined.

Mitch Connor

Your Airbag wrote: »

The article also states the following



All of which is sensible and clearly points out that there is more than just Moyes as a reason for our poor run.

Shame you only pinched the graphs from the article and didn't link the whole thing so we could see it was not laying the blame solely at Moyes feet as you attempted to do with the graphs.

The midfield is largely the same for both seasons. Scholes didn't feature too much last season in terms of minutes so can't have had a massive impact on the overall style of play.

Also, my understanding of the article is that RVP helped masked the problems of our team (which I agree with), not that our tactics differed greatly last season (in respect to how we use the ball and get it into the final third) because of his presence. RVP played a lot at the start of the season, where out style of play was also completely wing based and showed little intent through the centre.

kippy

Someone mentioned it earlier on in response to a comment Moyes made about him seeing that there is a bit of an improvement coming or words to that effect and it was an interesting point.
One goal more scored or one goal less conceded would be a bit of an improvement and would see United in a far healthier position and most likely the only real difference between this year and last year.

You could say that injuries to key players in defence and upfront have caused those changes to take place.
(obviously transfers need to be made and there are key weakness' in the squad but the key thing for Moyes is to turn that around)

magnumbud

Mitch Connor wrote: »

The midfield is largely the same for both seasons. Scholes didn't feature too much last season in terms of minutes so can't have had a massive impact on the overall style of play.

except for the fact that carrick has been injured and in bad form (compared to last season) for most of the season so far.

Chazz Michael Michaels

kippy wrote: »

Its in isolation to all the other more important factors that I have outlined.

True, but it wouldn't surprise me if a significant amount if the difference comes down to the diff between Fergie and Moyes.

Chazz Michael Michaels

kippy wrote: »

Its in isolation to all the other more important factors that I have outlined.

True, but it wouldn't surprise me if a significant amount if the difference comes down to the diff between Fergie and Moyes.

kippy

Chazz Michael Michaels wrote: »

True, but it wouldn't surprise me if a significant amount if the difference comes down to the diff between Fergie and Moyes.

So you reckon that last seasons "heatmap" above, is indicative of every season under Fergie, and the past seasons' heat map of Moyes is indicative of every season he had with Everton?
(If you do, by the way, I don't think you've any appreciation for how much both managers styles have differed over the years.)

Idu

The same article says that the Everton heat map is the opposite of United's so it's more than a one season thing for Moyes or a small sample size. It's not an indictment of Moyes in and off itself, he got good results doing the same with Everton, but it is an illustration of how we have no plan B in games and we probably don't have the personnel to play to this system. Anyone who has suffered through the last few weeks of United games could surely agree with that

Chazz Michael Michaels

kippy wrote: »

So you reckon that last seasons "heatmap" above, is indicative of every season under Fergie, and the past seasons' heat map of Moyes is indicative of every season he had with Everton?
(If you do, by the way, I don't think you've any appreciation for how much both managers styles)

Thanks for the final set up there.

kippy

Chazz Michael Michaels wrote: »

Thanks for the final set up there.

Didnt finish the sentence, edited post now to reflect my thoughts.
For the record, I dont think either manager can be pinned to a specific tactic for the entirity of their careers.

JRant

Those heat maps, while in isolation are pretty meaningless, show why we are so easy to defend against. In the Sunderland game we were crying out for a more central approach but the manager/players just couldn't see it. It's obvious that Moyes has us set up to play with width but our midfielders have been so poor that they're just not playing whats in front of them.

I thought Jones was excellent at providing a bit of penetration through the middle when played in midfield. Such a shame he was injuried for the past number of games.

Rooney, RVP and Jones in beside Carrick or Fletch and we will see a completely different team.

Chazz Michael Michaels

kippy wrote: »

Didnt finish the sentence, edited post now to reflect my thoughts.
For the record, I dont think either manager can be pinned to a specific tactic for the entirity of their careers.

Ok, my point. Often I see comments in this thread that say "this is the team that won the league last year", in defense of comments that have a go at your squad. So, if the above statement is the case, and accounting for factors such as form, injuries. Why is comparing this season and last such an 'abuse' or a waste of time? If comparing this season to last is not a waste of time, why then, is comparing heatmaps of this season to last a waste?

I think its quite useful to look at. To see two different approaches with fairly similar teams. It shows where the problem seems to lie. Where your obvious weakness is. Central midfield.

yabadabado

Even the standard of troll on this thread has gone to **** since SAF retired. I blame Moyes.

IamtheWalrus

There's a dude in my office who is the spit of Patrice Evra. Hardly a brother?

Will I Amnt

IamtheWalrus wrote: »

There's a dude in my office who is the spit of Patrice Evra. Hardly a brother?

Is his surname Evra?

jonnyfingers

10 pages of new posts since I went to bed last night and I thought something big had happened. Instead it's full of heatmap and statistics ****e. How disappointing.

Will I Amnt

jonnyfingers wrote: »

10 pages of new posts since I went to bed last night and I thought something big had happened. Instead it's full of heatmap and statistics ****e. How disappointing.

And Cattermole, don't forget good old Cattermole.

kryogen

Neeson wrote: »

People are disagreeing with me but have no alternative. What is wrong with my lineup?

This will be my last response to you as its clearly a wind up

Your line up is terrible, you know its terrible too.

You want alternatives? Ok

Instead of Lee Cattermole we could sign Matic/Fernando
Instead of McGeady we could actually play Zaha since he couldnt be much worse then him, or make a move for an out of favour Di Maria who is actually good.
How does Donovan even fit into the team with RVP, Rooney, Welbz and Hernandez ffs? Pay him to sit on the bench? No thanks, have a few doing that already.

There you go, alternatives to the awful line up.

ericzeking

IamtheWalrus wrote: »

There's a dude in my office who is the spit of Patrice Evra. Hardly a brother?

Does he not give two rattling f***s about his job?

bucketybuck

kippy wrote: »

Someone mentioned it earlier on in response to a comment Moyes made about him seeing that there is a bit of an improvement coming or words to that effect and it was an interesting point.
One goal more scored or one goal less conceded would be a bit of an improvement and would see United in a far healthier position and most likely the only real difference between this year and last year.

In poker I think they call this being results orientated, as opposed to focusing on your actual play. For example, you fold 72 pre-flop and the flop comes down 7,2,2. A result orientated player is annoyed that he folded pre-flop, but he really shouldn't be because his decision was the right one at the time, regardless of the result. If a player concentrates on making the right decisions rather than focusing on the results then he wins at poker.

How does this relate to Manchester United? You can easily point to one or two instances where one goal scored or one goal less conceded could have changed our current points total, but thats the wrong focus. If we had gotten those extra goals and were sitting in 4th now should we be satisfied with how our season has gone? Hell no. Our performances in those games were what they were, and getting one goal extra here and there doesn't really change the fact that the performances have been dire all season.

Your Airbag

IamtheWalrus wrote: »

There's a dude in my office who is the spit of Patrice Evra. Hardly a brother?

Post a photo and let the hive mind decide.

Lord TSC

bucketybuck wrote: »

How does this relate to Manchester United? You can easily point to one or two instances where one goal scored or one goal less conceded could have changed our current points total, but thats the wrong focus. If we had gotten those extra goals and were sitting in 4th now should we be satisfied with how our season has gone? Hell no. Our performances in those games were what they were, and getting one goal extra here and there doesn't really change the fact that the performances have been dire all season.

I personally think that if we were playing bad but winning games, it would get overlooked, as it did a lot over the last season or two. I think people might also tolerate losing matches but playing well.

The problem is we look dire AND we're losing games. One or the other can be justified but not both.

Nalz

Cattermole, heatmaps, statistics and poker!

What next tellytubbies :P

bucketybuck

Teamshadowclan wrote: »

I personally think that if we were playing bad but winning games, it would get overlooked, as it did a lot over the last season or two.

Probably, but its also true to say that a lot of us in here have been grumbling constantly for over 3 years now about how we feel performances have been declining. This season has been coming for a while now, and its one of the reasons I will not call for Moyes to be sacked.

Before the season I thought we would do well to finish 3rd or 4th. Personally, I'm not even convinced that we would be in the top 4 if Fergie was still the manager, the problem of having a crap midfield was always going to bite home at some stage.

KH25

The more days that go by without a signing, the more I worry...:(

Lord TSC

Talks of Draxler at Arsenal. Would have loved to get him

Mitch Connor

KH25 wrote: »

The more days that go by without a signing, the more I worry...:(

I wonder is the reason we are not signing anyone because the board are worried about Moyes - defeats in the next two games could spell the end for him. Could be 11 points off fourth at that point.

Mitch Connor

Teamshadowclan wrote: »

Talks of Draxler at Arsenal. Would have loved to get him

talented attacking player? Nah - not at United mate...

Maximus Alexander

bucketybuck wrote: »

In poker I think they call this being results orientated, as opposed to focusing on your actual play. For example, you fold 72 pre-flop and the flop comes down 7,2,2. A result orientated player is annoyed that he folded pre-flop, but he really shouldn't be because his decision was the right one at the time, regardless of the result. If a player concentrates on making the right decisions rather than focusing on the results then he wins at poker.

How does this relate to Manchester United? You can easily point to one or two instances where one goal scored or one goal less conceded could have changed our current points total, but thats the wrong focus. If we had gotten those extra goals and were sitting in 4th now should we be satisfied with how our season has gone? Hell no. Our performances in those games were what they were, and getting one goal extra here and there doesn't really change the fact that the performances have been dire all season.

I think this is nonsense to be honest. The post he was referring to (I believe) was this one:

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

If United had scored one more or conceded one less in every league match so far this season, they'd have +14 points and +20 goal difference. Top of the league at a canter.

It's a "little bit" better in terms of performance in each match, but a massive difference in terms of league position, which is my point. I'll take a "little bit" better, gladly.

Interestingly, that level of improvement over the rest of the season would leave United on 80 / 81 points. Definitely top 4.

This post was made in reference to Moyes claiming that the team is about to get a "little bit" better. He was referring to performances. What this post was trying to highlight is that even a small improvement in performances could have a staggering effect on United's season.

What it shows is that while United have been dire to watch and are under-performing, they perhaps are not under-performing by as much as it appears at first glance when compared against last season. A goal missed here, another conceded there - that's all that is in it. United aren't being hammered by teams (with the exception of City), the performances are just that shade below last season where, while United appeared to win at a canter, the squad wasn't ripping the league apart and actually rode a knife-edge to victory.

I get that plenty of people won't be happy unless United are putting teams to the sword in 5 goal massacres every game, but I (and a lot of fans) would be happy enough just to be back to last season's level at the moment. If that much could be achieved (quickly mind), United would ease into the top 4.

KH25

Mitch Connor wrote: »

I wonder is the reason we are not signing anyone because the board are worried about Moyes - defeats in the next two games could spell the end for him. Could be 11 points off fourth at that point.

Possibly. But, say Moyes was to be sacked soon, any coach coming in has the exact same squad to use and absolutely no new blood nor a chance of getting any until after the WC.

I am not very confident of United buying big in the summer, especially if we do not buy now and dramatically improve our fortunes.

bucketybuck

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

What it shows is that while United have been dire to watch and are under-performing, they perhaps are not under-performing by as much as it appears at first glance when compared against last season. A goal missed here, another conceded there - that's all that is in it.

But its not nonsense because this is completely my point. A goal different here and there and you suddenly have the confidence to say they that perhaps are not actually under-performing by as much as it appears at first glance.

I'm sorry, but they are under-performing, and whether they got a goal different here and there doesn't change that fact one iota. Thats the whole point.

kippy

Chazz Michael Michaels wrote: »

Ok, my point. Often I see comments in this thread that say "this is the team that won the league last year", in defense of comments that have a go at your squad. So, if the above statement is the case, and accounting for factors such as form, injuries. Why is comparing this season and last such an 'abuse' or a waste of time? If comparing this season to last is not a waste of time, why then, is comparing heatmaps of this season to last a waste?

I think its quite useful to look at. To see two different approaches with fairly similar teams. It shows where the problem seems to lie. Where your obvious weakness is. Central midfield.

The point is the comparison is Moyes this season and Fergie last season using a heatmap in isolation to all the other factors you have mentioned yourself is completely pointless.
Is the heatmap directly related to the reasons why the results are so different or is it the fact that key players have been injured, key players are getting older and key areas in the team personel wise have not been addressed?

If you want to look at the heatmap crap and use it to back up a point, you need to also have the headmaps available of every other season under Ferguson and indeed every other season under Moyes, particularily if you are going to say that each have always had the same type of tactic for their entire careers and that Moyes sucks.


That obvious weakness you mention was pretty obvious to man here for the last few years by the way, and it was there the past couple of seasons as well, but other factors overcame it.

kryogen

Its dependant, sometimes it passes away 2 minutes while waiting for the shower to be free or if you are up feeding a baby in the early hours and it can amuse you for a few moments. I dont think anyone failed to spot what it was though surely

JRant

Mitch Connor wrote: »

I wonder is the reason we are not signing anyone because the board are worried about Moyes - defeats in the next two games could spell the end for him. Could be 11 points off fourth at that point.

If I was Moyes I'd want to bring in a couple of my own players now. Fellani has played feck all this season, may as well have not signed the chap. At this stage he's in danger of sinking without so much as a whimper. I'd rather be sacked for doing it my own way then trying to mimic what went before.

Moyes will get as much time as he needs if the fans have something to get behind. Most of us wouldn't mind being in our current predicament if the likes of Zaha, Powell, Lingard etc where playing or at least getting game time. However we seem to be transitioning by playing older and crapper players.

We know what Valencia can offer, why give him so many minutes. Same goes for Cleverley. Giggs really shouldn't be playing at all, he's not providing any guidance or guile.

Most hope that he gets it right and will need time to do this but if he loses the fans then there's nothing Fergie, Charlton and Co. can say to save his bacon.

kryogen

Mitch Connor wrote: »

talented attacking player? Nah - not at United mate...

RVP and Kagawa are two talented attacking players to have joined the club recently....

I am a big fan of Draxler, be surprised if he leaves Germany just yet though in any case

kippy

bucketybuck wrote: »

In poker I think they call this being results orientated, as opposed to focusing on your actual play. For example, you fold 72 pre-flop and the flop comes down 7,2,2. A result orientated player is annoyed that he folded pre-flop, but he really shouldn't be because his decision was the right one at the time, regardless of the result. If a player concentrates on making the right decisions rather than focusing on the results then he wins at poker.

How does this relate to Manchester United? You can easily point to one or two instances where one goal scored or one goal less conceded could have changed our current points total, but thats the wrong focus. If we had gotten those extra goals and were sitting in 4th now should we be satisfied with how our season has gone? Hell no. Our performances in those games were what they were, and getting one goal extra here and there doesn't really change the fact that the performances have been dire all season.

I dont get the comparison to be honest and I dont think it works but I know what you are trying to say.


You're basicilly saying that the performances have been crap, so even if United were sitting in fourth or higher fans wouldnt be happy with how games were being won?
To a point I agree, but it is a results game, not a performance game.
Granted, there are issues with the squad as I have pointed out (injuries, the need for some new feet on the ground etc) but one of those is out of the managers hand to a point (injuries) and the club are working on the second issue - admittedly without any major success so far

KH25

Im so sick of seeing Valencia play. He is a sad excuse for a footballer. Seeing him get played almost every week makes my brain hurt. Its not as though we can't afford to drop him.

Mitch Connor

JRant wrote: »

If I was Moyes I'd want to bring in a couple of my own players now. Fellani has played feck all this season, may as well have not signed the chap. At this stage he's in danger of sinking without so much as a whimper. I'd rather be sacked for doing it my own way then trying to mimic what went before.

Moyes will get as much time as he needs if the fans have something to get behind. Most of us wouldn't mind being in our current predicament if the likes of Zaha, Powell, Lingard etc where playing or at least getting game time. However we seem to be transitioning by playing older and crapper players.

We know what Valencia can offer, why give him so many minutes. Same goes for Cleverley. Giggs really shouldn't be playing at all, he's not providing any guidance or guile.

Most hope that he gets it right and will need time to do this but if he loses the fans then there's nothing Fergie, Charlton and Co. can say to save his bacon.

I agree with you. as I said yesterday, I just want Moyes to give me something, ANYTHING, to pin some hope to. There is nothing so far, not in what we see on the pitch, not in what we see re. transfers and certainly not in his public attitude to all things United.

Was saying to a mate yesterday - I think Moyes needs to kick someone out of the club, a big name, and replace them with someone else, in this window. Evra, Rio being prime candidates. It needs to be portrayed as Moyes getting fed up with performance levels and getting shot of a senior player who isn't up to it. It would give him more authority over the squad - show there are consequences to not fighting for him. All we have got so far is excuses that signings couldn't be made because they are a squad of champions and Moyes wanted to work with them all and see what they were like, give everyone as much of a chance as they needed. Feck that.

yabadabado

Chazz Michael Michaels wrote: »

What troll?

Not hard to spot them. Make up your own mind.

Maximus Alexander

bucketybuck wrote: »

But its not nonsense because this is completely my point. A goal different here and there and you suddenly have the confidence to say they that perhaps are not actually under-performing by as much as it appears at first glance.

I'm sorry, but they are under-performing, and whether they got a goal different here and there doesn't change that fact one iota. Thats the whole point.

Of course it matters. Most people were happy enough with last season, yet the only difference was a goal here or there.

For example, last season United won 16 games by only one goal. A goal here or there was responsible for 32 points. United didn't win the league by tearing people apart, they won it by fine margins despite the points difference, and the supporters were generally happy enough with that.

Interestingly, in those 16 games Van Persie scored in 10 - he is sorely missed.

If 6 of those 16 had ended in draws instead of wins, United would not have won the league, and 5 of them were only won through very late goals and penalties.

Fine margins.

Unless you're suggesting that an improvement in performance wouldn't lead to scoring more and / or conceding less, I don't really see what you're getting at.