Would an UK EU exit really effect Ireland ?

househero

petronius wrote: »

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I just wonder do the Republics government have a plan in the case of the UK leaving, surely they must?

You would hope so

comongethappy

househero wrote: »

You would hope so

A plan would not need to cover much.

1) ensure a common travel & trade area between two nations.

2) Profit!

petronius

Border Police north of dundalk?
South of Inishowen...
Passport control on the enterprise?
I doubt it
But our government seems to have no plan for the likely hood of the UK leaving the EU

ewan whose army

Empire o de Sun wrote: »

If the UK leaves I don't think this will affect the CTA but customs posts will reappear on the border crossings, and flights into Ireland from the UK will be channeled through the Green/Red customs channel.
Customs will in effect kill off the CTA

We already have to go through customs and the GNIB when we arrive from the UK

(cross-posted from AH)
If Britain decides to Leave the EU, Merkel says that she'll show them the door.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-29874392
Chancellor Angela Merkel would rather see the UK exit from the European Union than compromise over the principle of free movement of workers, according to the German magazine Der Spiegel.
Mrs Merkel is alleged to fear that the UK is approaching a "point of no return".

Things are going to get very interesting!

Where would that leave Ireland?

Scofflaw

Deleted User wrote: »

(cross-posted from AH)
If Britain decides to Leave the EU, Merkel says that she'll show them the door.



Things are going to get very interesting!

Where would that leave Ireland?

It would be slightly more accurate to say that she'll stop trying to help them stay in. In other words, the UK will have German support for a renegotiation unless it wants to renegotiate the very basic principles the EU is founded on, in which case she'll wash her hands of them.

That seems fair to me. A tennis club should aim to oblige its members, but not to the extent of becoming a hockey club.

As to how it affects Ireland - hard to say, as the thread shows!

cordially,
Scofflaw

The Corinthian

Scofflaw wrote: »

As to how it affects Ireland - hard to say, as the thread shows!

The UK is Ireland's second biggest export destination. Given this, the combined EU (less UK) easily dwarfs exports to the UK, so on that basis it's a no-brainer which is more important. Less said about how 'well' we did when the UK accounted for 70% of our exports the better.

However, it would hit Ireland hard to temporarily lose access to a destination that accounts for about 18% of our exports.

Yet the UK, as I said, is Ireland's second biggest export destination. The US is first and let's not kid ourselves, they're not trading with us because of our access to the UK, but a combination of low tax and access to the EU. And we speak English.

So I'd see a Britxit as a crisis in the Chinese sense of the word - 'dangerous opportunity', messy but potentially lucrative as we become the only major Anglophone nation left in the EU. If we get our act together and exploit that opportunity, but that's another story.

portarlington speakers

Do you think Ireland and the UK should apply to join the USA instead. Would you rather have Obama telling us what to do instead of Merkel?

The Corinthian

portarlington speakers wrote: »

Do you think Ireland and the UK should apply to join the USA instead. Would you rather have Obama telling us what to do instead of Merkel?

As my IQ is above 100, I tend not to waste much time on such scenarios.

BoJack Horseman

The Corinthian wrote: »

However, it would hit Ireland hard to temporarily lose access to a destination that accounts for about 18% of our exports.

How would Ireland 'lose access' to the UK?

At worst there would be trade tariffs..... Like trade with any non-EU country
At best, the status quo of free trade via bilateral agreement.

A brexit may drop trade slightly, but it doesn't disappear.

The Corinthian

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

How would Ireland 'lose access' to the UK?

At worst there would be trade tariffs..... Like trade with any non-EU country
At best, the status quo of free trade via bilateral agreement.

A brexit may drop trade slightly, but it doesn't disappear.

Sorry, I should have been more pedantic. Of course it would not disappear, but it would certainly decrease, and I suspect by more than 'slightly'. This will naturally cause a shock to the system as we compensate with different markets.

Basically, there will be a transitional period as our economy adjusts.

Frank Lee Midere

petronius wrote: »

Border Police north of dundalk?
South of Inishowen...
Passport control on the enterprise?
I doubt it
But our government seems to have no plan for the likely hood of the UK leaving the EU

All of that is likely. If the UK leaves because of a fear of immigration they would obviously police the borders.

Fun fact: the regulations already allow border control for security reasons which explains why you were stopped going north a few years ago even though both Ireland and the UK were in the EEC/EU and had a common travel area. In fact there were restrictions within the UK - some people couldn't fly from Belfast to London.

Frank Lee Midere

ewan whose army wrote: »

We already have to go through customs and the GNIB when we arrive from the UK

But not always the other way. In Dublin there is no distinction between flights from the UK and anywhere else. Fly to
Bristol and you can walk off as the flight enters a "domestic gate".

FreudianSlippers

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

But not always the other way. In Dublin there is no distinction between flights from the UK and anywhere else. Fly to
Bristol and you can walk off as the flight enters a "domestic gate".

Nothing about the EU prevents the UK from doing so though. The immigration thing is a damp squib in terms of "bad" EU issues.

Frank Lee Midere

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Nothing about the EU prevents the UK from doing so though. The immigration thing is a damp squib in terms of "bad" EU issues.

Sure. I think some British airports have security from Ireland and neither Ireland nor Britain are in the schengen area so passport control is there already from the continent.

Scofflaw

The Corinthian wrote: »

Sorry, I should have been more pedantic. Of course it would not disappear, but it would certainly decrease, and I suspect by more than 'slightly'. This will naturally cause a shock to the system as we compensate with different markets.

Basically, there will be a transitional period as our economy adjusts.

Wouldn't that depend on what/whether the UK negotiates during the 2-year 'grace period' allowed for in Lisbon?

cordially,
Scofflaw

The Corinthian

Scofflaw wrote: »

Wouldn't that depend on what/whether the UK negotiates during the 2-year 'grace period' allowed for in Lisbon?

I'm sure that any shock to either the Irish or UK economies will be managed, but there ultimately still be some fallout as some companies fail to adjust; I know of one that has 100% of their business in the UK and I would severely doubt that they would be able to adjust to other parts of the EU (or if legally they can as they effectively resell a US product via a franchise).

Of course, it doesn't mean that Ireland might not be better off in the long run. We could do very well as we poach all those multinationals that were in the UK for a foothold in the EU. Financial services in Ireland could make a killing.

If we can get our act together to exploit the opportunity, of course.