Longshotvalue @ Cheltenham

longshotvalue

ANTEPOST already selected for today.

Both of these have worked out well as they will go off at significantly shorter prices.


Ryanair Chase


In a race that could cut up significantly Menorah now great value at 16/1 nrnb with bet365. His last 2 runs last year would put him in with an excellent chance here, just getting beat by First Lieutenant at Aintree and then just about failing to give 17lbs to Champion Court at Cheltenham. He was poor on the King George in soft ground but has in the past has numerous times come back from poor runs to excel and I wouldn’t rule it out here
.
1 Point win 16/1 NRNB Bet365

JLT Novice Chase

Oscar Whiskey just looks overpriced here. He hasn’t really set the world alight with his jumping but this could well be a week enough affair and I really can’t have the 2 above him in the market at shorter prices. It’s risky enough without NRNB but 10/1 is just too big here and I’ll have to go for a 1 point bet as I’d be more raging if I wasn’t on at that price before the race than if I lost it if he didn’t run.

1 Point win 10/1 Ladbrokes

Colonel Sanders

Nicely done Aidan

2 very nice ones yesterday

longshotvalue

3:20 World Hurdle

Celestial Halo stands out a mile here as the value in this race at 40/1. He looks clearly the 3rd best of these on all known form and apart from his last run where the trainer has intimated he needed, he has been in top class for form the last year. He was a great 2nd in this last year and has 2 wins already this year. He will like the ground and Paul Nicholls seems to think he shouldn’t be written off here.


1 Point EW 40/1 Stan James/Bet Victor

longshotvalue

4:40 Kim Muir

I’m going with gut feeling here in Quinz. He is always best fresh on good ground and although we have a fair bit of poor form to overlook I just get the feeling that he will be right for today of a really great mark. He is 12 lbs below his really good 4th in the Racing Plus Chase last year and if he can be revived at all today he is worth a speculative selection at 33/1 with 5 places.


1 Point EW 33/1 5 Places Sporting Bet Bet365 and others.

UrbanSea

aidankkk wrote: »

4:40 Kim Muir

I’m going with gut feeling here in Quinz. He is always best fresh on good ground and although we have a fair bit of poor form to overlook I just get the feeling that he will be right for today of a really great mark. He is 12 lbs below his really good 4th in the Racing Plus Chase last year and if he can be revived at all today he is worth a speculative selection at 33/1 with 5 places.


1 Point EW 33/1 5 Places Sporting Bet Bet365 and others.

He is the only one catching my eye in what looks a weak Kim Muir despite the field size. I think some of the runners aren't well handicapped at all

longshotvalue

2:05 Pertemps Network Final

Had a huge amount of difficulty picking anything in this race but just stumbled across First Fandango at a huge price. He ran a decent race in this last year but then improved to a good 3rd at Aintree. He is down again and if he can reproduce that run here with a new 10lbs claimer on today he might not be far away. 50/1 with 5 places with Stan James looks tempting


1pt EW 50/1 5 Places Stan James

rossom

Tataniano not declared for tomorrow.

BQQ

Well done on yesterday Aidan. Great tipping.


1:30
Off the ground 1pt e.w. @ 25/1

Different horse on good ground the last two runs, winning easily.
Still open to any amount of improvement on this surface and could run into a place at a big price.


2:40 Ryanair Chase
Rathlin 1pt e.w. @22/1

Ran up a hat-trick last summer, the latter 2 on good ground including a 6L+ beating of Hidden Cyclone, who himself is closely matched with Benefficient.
Well beaten in his last 2 runs, but they were on heavy ground and Mouse never sends one over unless it has a chance.
Obviously, It's a race the owner is bulling to win and I think he'll run well at a very nice price.


4:00
Ballynagour 1pt e.w. @ 16/1

Was favourite for this race last year off 3lb higher.
Pulled up on only run since, so he's even more well handicapped than they thought he was last year.
Wears a tongue-tie for the first time and that may sort out what made him disappoint in the past.
Trainer has a fine record in the race.

UrbanSea

zpehtsfd wrote: »

Hidden Cyclone @ 70/1 on BF (Ryanair Chase). Not much size but it's worth a fiver. Good chance that will be his target if SS turns up in the Champion Chase. Ran a cracker in the PP and seems to be a different horse this season.

Agree with poster above re. Sizing Gold.

You must have been counting aidan before the last. Unlucky

zpehtsfd

UrbanSea wrote: »

You must have been counting aidan before the last. Unlucky

Gutted. Nearly threw the computer out the window. Had fiver place @ 7.8 also so got something out of it.

I think you mixed me up with Aidan.

UrbanSea

Haha sorry I didn't even look at the poster. Apologies

BQQ

BQQ wrote: »

4:00
Ballynagour 1pt e.w. @ 16/1

Was favourite for this race last year off 3lb higher.
Pulled up on only run since, so he's even more well handicapped than they thought he was last year.
Wears a tongue-tie for the first time and that may sort out what made him disappoint in the past.
Trainer has a fine record in the race.

BOOM!
Absolute plot job.

longshotvalue

2:05 County Hurdle

This race takes a very good horse to win and I think Montbazon has a decent chance of fulfilling his potential from 2 years ago, when he ended his novice season with a very good 4th in the Supreme. To my eye he travelled well in the betfair before getting tired towards the end, which is understandable after 2 years off and very soft ground. His mark looks well within his grasp and 25/1 make the risk of a somewhat unknown quantity worth taking.
1 Point EW 25/1 5 Places Various

5:15 Grand Annual

Gutted to be even bothering to look at this race as I was sure I had the winner already sorted in Tataniano (who may be running tomorrow). Astracad looks the value here with plenty of good form on good ground over 2 miles here and looks sure of giving a good account of himself. He will need to improve to have a chance of winning this but is only 7 and that may be possible. 33/1 simply too big with 5 places in Stan James and his chances here of getting into the 5 are huge

2 Points EW Stan James 5 places 33/1

2:40 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

I was looking at Briar Hills races this morning and spotted one making ground quickly at the end of his last race, looked it up and he is also here today over the longer trip that will surely suit. Very Wood could well improve here and although he really should be winning this 50/1 EW is too tempting. He has solid looking form overall and is worth a small gamble at those odds.

1 Point EW 50/1 Various

4:40 Martin Pipe

Very difficult race to find the winner here, so I’m going to go with consistency. Local Hero has been running well lately on unsuitable soft ground and although this is a step up in trip for him that may suit him judging by the way he generally finished his races. He will love the quick ground and could well be flying at the finish here. He is worth the risk at 33/1 with 5 places.

1 Point EW 33/1 5 Places Various

NaiveMelodies

aidankkk wrote: »

[
2:40 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
I was looking at Briar Hills races this morning and spotted one making ground quickly at the end of his last race, looked it up and he is also here today over the longer trip that will surely suit. Very Wood could well improve here and although he really should be winning this 50/1 EW is too tempting. He has solid looking form overall and is worth a small gamble at those odds.
1 Point EW 50/1 Various

Had a long hard look at this fella, but the 10 pound swing is too much for me.
I think he'll be very good over fences so an encouraging run today would be nice.

BQQ

5:15 Grand Annual
His excellency 1pt e.w. @ 22/1

This looks like another well handicapped horse for the Pipe team.
Was placed in the Arkle last year albeit 15L behind Simonsig.
He then turned out in this race a few days later and was cruising into contention when falling 3 from home.
That was off a mark of 151 and he runs off 142 now after doing nothing on soft ground this winter.
He did show more last time out however and back to good ground I think he'll run a big race here.


2:05
Upazo 1pt e.w. @40/1

Cruised to 2 wins on good to yielding before third on soft in the Tolworth.
Opening mark looks fair and is open to more improvement on this ground.
Ruby has chosen Arctic Fire, but AP will tell you picking them is not easy and Townend is an able deputy in any case.

clubberlang12

Albert Bartlett 14.40

Can't resist a bet on Prince Siegfried, who is 100/1 in places. Ex-Goldolphin horse who was rated 114 on the flat. Got a mile and a quarter on the flat so possibly no surprise if he does get todays trip. Although without having run over this trip that is speculation. However, Ferguson is no fool and despite being campaigned over a 2 mile it is intriguing to see him stepped up for the first time here. Disappointing lto but quickened up stride for stride with Irving the time before coming down at the last hurdle. Interesting runner for me.

UrbanSea

aidankkk wrote: »

2:05 County Hurdle

This race takes a very good horse to win and I think Montbazon has a decent chance of fulfilling his potential from 2 years ago, when he ended his novice season with a very good 4th in the Supreme. To my eye he travelled well in the betfair before getting tired towards the end, which is understandable after 2 years off and very soft ground. His mark looks well within his grasp and 25/1 make the risk of a somewhat unknown quantity worth taking.
1 Point EW 25/1 5 Places Various

5:15 Grand Annual

Gutted to be even bothering to look at this race as I was sure I had the winner already sorted in Tataniano (who may be running tomorrow). Astracad looks the value here with plenty of good form on good ground over 2 miles here and looks sure of giving a good account of himself. He will need to improve to have a chance of winning this but is only 7 and that may be possible. 33/1 simply too big with 5 places in Stan James and his chances here of getting into the 5 are huge

2 Points EW Stan James 5 places 33/1

2:40 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

I was looking at Briar Hills races this morning and spotted one making ground quickly at the end of his last race, looked it up and he is also here today over the longer trip that will surely suit. Very Wood could well improve here and although he really should be winning this 50/1 EW is too tempting. He has solid looking form overall and is worth a small gamble at those odds.

1 Point EW 50/1 Various

4:40 Martin Pipe

Very difficult race to find the winner here, so I’m going to go with consistency. Local Hero has been running well lately on unsuitable soft ground and although this is a step up in trip for him that may suit him judging by the way he generally finished his races. He will love the quick ground and could well be flying at the finish here. He is worth the risk at 33/1 with 5 places.

1 Point EW 33/1 5 Places Various

Tip of the hat to you aidan. Fantastic stuff!!

Deco99

Aidan, you have made my week, did these four in a lucky 15 ew.

GAMAN

aidankkk you are a God amongst men :):):)

Colonel Sanders

aidankkk wrote: »

2:40 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

I was looking at Briar Hills races this morning and spotted one making ground quickly at the end of his last race, looked it up and he is also here today over the longer trip that will surely suit. Very Wood could well improve here and although he really should be winning this 50/1 EW is too tempting. He has solid looking form overall and is worth a small gamble at those odds.

1 Point EW 50/1 Various

Well done

UrbanSea

Wish I backed it :pac:

Colonel Sanders

UrbanSea wrote: »

Wish I backed it :pac:

I didn't but one of the lads did, token bet at 60 on Betfair

tomaussie

Every time I read a post by Aidan I see a more handsome type Tom Segal in my mind.

He's some man.

NaiveMelodies

Unbelievable, congrats Aidan.

Deco99

did a lucky 15 e/w on aidans picks, if now one else wins does that mean i get treble the odds on the win part? or because i did it ew and have a place in the first is that bonus voided? paddies in-shop.

Nulty

Well Done Aidan!

Sean Quagmire

Thanks Aidan, had very wood and montbazon save my week!!

longshotvalue

Cheltenham Trip Report – 63 Points Profit

Day 1 didn’t get off to the best start with my Nap of the meeting Rock on Ruby’s race was over after 2 fences, went further downhill when Hurricane Fly ran well but just wasn’t good enough against the new pretenders this year. I don’t really subscribe to the fact the The New One was unlucky he was near enough 2 out if good enough. It didn’t end well when my most confident bet of the day Ataglance was robbed of the race by circumstances, possibly rider error as all he had to do was continue on the outside for a relatively easy success. That result didn’t augur well for the rest of the week as I’m usually able to bang in one of the handicaps at a big price and it difficult enough to pick one.

Day 2 had one of the silliest priced horses I’ve seen in a while in Sire De Grugy, one look at the Tingle Creek on good ground made any hope of Captain Conan having any chance at all remote and from that race I thought Somersby had a great chance of coming second. Ladbrokes had a huge 14/1 available in the W/O market and he duly obliged just. We had a larger than usual bet on Sire de Grugy as well so it couldn’t have worked out any better. He also was the second leg of a treble started by Faugheen. One of my bets of the week was the 3rd leg of the daily treble and Balthazar King scraped home against my other selection Any Currency, mainly due to a sublime ride. That treble paid near 80 points and it was going to be a good festival after that regardless. Note to self if I have 2 reasonably confident selections do the fecking forecast, that race the forecast paid 60/1.

Day 3 was the single worst day I’ve ever had selection wise at the festival with all mine coming last. I kid you not every selection came actually last other than Oscar Whiskey who fell at the first after being backed into 11/2. My wife who came over for the Thursday thankfully had Fingal Bay so it was our one cheer of the day. Annie Power let me down for a 4 Horse Accumulator but ran a great race really and looks a huge prospect as a staying chaser.

Day 4 for me was all about Briar Hill, I had 2 trebles with him as the last leg and was confident enough. The day started well with Montbazon running huge race in 3rd after looking the winner before the last. While checking out Briar Hills previous form I noticed Very Wood flying at the finish of his last race and figured 50/1 was value. Though Briar Hill falling cost me a much bigger win money wise, I would prefer 50/1 Selection to win any day of the week. He got a great ride from Paul Carbury and won going away in the manner of a decent prospect. This gave us a nice collection and with 2 legs of a EW Yankee and a nice 2 possibilities in the last 2 handicaps. Local Hero ran a great race but just didn’t stay. I was very confident of Asctracad placing at least and he was going well until a huge mistake about 4 from home, which put paid to his chances (he ran on well at the finish afterwards)

Overall I made over 63 Point Profit from all my selections here. Ante-post results were poor, thankfully I only put up NRNB or NRFB on most so non-runners cost me only 1 point. I’ll be updating the spreadsheet later on today for the year and it should make for a nice profit on the year.