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Anyone else depressed with house hunting?
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Barely Hedged wrote: »You've discounted the fact that a large proportion of bond sales are from institutional investors that are interested in long term gains. They invest on prospective improvements as well not just how the economy compares with others on the 23 Jan 2014 at 11:50.
So its long term, not the present, that discounts any spin of improvement.Barely Hedged wrote: »My contention on prices is that theyre not going to fall anymore than the level achieved in late 2011 - early 2012. The economic statistics are improving and people see the potential to invest for the medium to long term. Thats what property investing is all about.
Mortgage approval is up. People are willing to bid on properties but get out muscled by cash buyers. This causes short spikes that maybe the original poster is seeing. They were willing to pay x amount for a house as they wouldnt have applied for a mortgage if not. The construction industry sees that mortgage holders are willing to pay this and not 20% or 30% less than the asking. They start to build homes because they see they can now get an economic return from house building. Supply returns and less spikes occur. This will probably be two years down the line. Dont expect property prices to fall below the asking prices now. The construction industry wont build if it does. Thats my opinion.
Where is your source of mortgage approvals being up? Here's the latest on drawdowns. Q4 2013 has not been released yet.
http://www.ibf.ie/Libraries/Research...INAL.sflb.ashxIBF wrote:Partly due to the MIR factor noted above, the total value of mortgage drawdowns for 2013 is unlikely to exceed the €2.6bn seen last year. Between Q1 and Q3 of this year some 9,800 mortgages (8,711 of which were for house purchase) were drawn down with a total value of €1.6 billion (€1.5 billion of which was for house purchase).
Investec Ireland has previously estimated that the mortgage market could recover to €8-10 billion per annum over the medium term, so we are clearly far from ‘normal service' where the mortgage market is concerned.
You're totally relying on cash buyers to bring about a surge in construction. Cash buyers are a minority and finite and perhaps in the art of speculation to make a quick buck, you need mortgage financing to get concrete sustainability in demand. The construction industry will have to adjust their cost base to meet the purchasing power of the demand.Barely Hedged wrote: »How do you expect to get an "actual" job if you dont have any experience or have displayed a good work ethic. The internship scheme was setup to do this.
Look at this way, its fiddling the figures in the art of spin(we haven't mentioned emigration yet). Welfare spending on those individuals has not gone down as the people have been moved to activation schemes.0 -
handlemaster wrote: »What changed except the potential selling price ?
Clearly if he sells now he has no house, and owes 80 grand. Assuming he had 30 grand deposit when he bought the house, he would be back to square one and 110K worse off. As long as he stays put and can service his mortgage he will do so.0 -
So its long term, not the present, that discounts any spin of improvement.
Where is your source of mortgage approvals being up? Here's the latest on drawdowns. Q4 2013 has not been released yet.
http://www.ibf.ie/Libraries/Research...INAL.sflb.ashx
You're totally relying on cash buyers to bring about a surge in construction. Cash buyers are a minority and finite and perhaps in the art of speculation to make a quick buck, you need mortgage financing to get concrete sustainability in demand. The construction industry will have to adjust their cost base to meet the purchasing power of the demand.
Look at this way, its fiddling the figures in the art of spin(we haven't mentioned emigration yet). Welfare spending on those individuals has not gone down as the people have been moved to activation schemes.
"Spin" - im not trying to spin anything. I noted some solid economic indicators that anybody involved in investing in fixed income uses in their analysis. They all showed improvement since 2008. The country is better positioned for growth than it was in 2008. Im not going to debate that point anymore. The economic facts speak for themselves.
Here you go: http://www.ibf.ie/gns/publications/research/researchmortgageapprovals.aspx. Its only from 2011 though.
The cash buyers are people who are more than likely investing. They see the opportunity to get a return on an investment. What do you think this is down to? All those economic indicators ive been spinning? Why do you think these people are cash buyers in the first place? Where did they get this cash from - because their idiots that dont know a thing about how the world/markets operate?
Current and potential mortgage applicants or approved people were sitting by watching the prices fall because it wasnt in their interest to step into the market. Now that they see cash buyers in the market, they realise that the market will not fall further, if at all. They have set the bench mark for asking prices where the construction industry can operate at to make an economic return on investment. Shudder the thought that the construction industry needs to make a profit. Labour costs can be reduced slightly by the construction industry but theyre still subject to external costs such as concrete and land that means they require quite a substantial break even point.
You show me one unemployed person who wants to contribute to their life, the economy and better themselves and you ask them would they prefer an internship or sitting at home?0 -
Barely Hedged wrote: »"Spin" - im not trying to spin anything. I noted some solid economic indicators that anybody involved in investing in fixed income uses in their analysis. They all showed improvement since 2008. The country is better positioned for growth than it was in 2008. Im not going to debate that point anymore. The economic facts speak for themselves.
Here you go: http://www.ibf.ie/gns/publications/research/researchmortgageapprovals.aspx. Its only from 2011 though.
The cash buyers are people who are more than likely investing. They see the opportunity to get a return on an investment. What do you think this is down to? All those economic indicators ive been spinning? Why do you think these people are cash buyers in the first place? Where did they get this cash from - because their idiots that dont know a thing about how the world/markets operate?
Current and potential mortgage applicants or approved people were sitting by watching the prices fall because it wasnt in their interest to step into the market. Now that they see cash buyers in the market, they realise that the market will not fall further, if at all. They have set the bench mark for asking prices where the construction industry can operate at to make an economic return on investment. Shudder the thought that the construction industry needs to make a profit. Labour costs can be reduced slightly by the construction industry but theyre still subject to external costs such as concrete and land that means they require quite a substantial break even point.
You show me one unemployed person who wants to contribute to their life, the economy and better themselves and you ask them would they prefer an internship or sitting at home?
You haven't stated what are those "economic indicators" were in the run up to now? All you said was unemployment figures which has been spun by the govt. Nor any links too.
Cash buyers of property are only in it for one of two things. Speculating on upward price movements or to rent it out to a tenant with a long term view. The cash buyers have been incentivised to move their cash from the likes of savings to property due to high DIRT tax and added PRSI. The construction industry need to get real, adjust their cost base to meet the affordability of the demand, it ain't 2006 anymore.
No argument there on preference for an unemployed person having their "internship". Just don't use it to say its a way of saying unemployment figures going down when its not. There is still a welfare spend on that person no matter what scheme they are on. You can keep that person in internships for life, it won't make a difference till they gain employment.0 -
I was a cash buyer in the last six months and neither of those things are true of me. I simply wanted a modest mortgage free house to live in. The price I paid was what I could afford based on my cash savings and it doesnt make a great deal of difference to me if it goes up or down in the future because my plan is to live out my days here - it's not an investment vehicle for me it's a stable roof over my head.You haven't stated what are those "economic indicators" were in the run up to now? All you said was unemployment figures which has been spun by the govt. Nor any links too.
Cash buyers of property are only in it for one of two things. Speculating on upward price movements or to rent it out to a tenant with a long term view. The cash buyers have been incentivised to move their cash from the likes of savings to property due to high DIRT tax and added PRSI. The construction industry need to get real, adjust their cost base to meet the affordability of the demand, it ain't 2006 anymore.
No argument there on preference for an unemployed person having their "internship". Just don't use it to say its a way of saying unemployment figures going down when its not. There is still a welfare spend on that person no matter what scheme they are on. You can keep that person in internships for life, it won't make a difference till they gain employment.0 -
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You haven't stated what are those "economic indicators" were in the run up to now? All you said was unemployment figures which has been spun by the govt. Nor any links too.
Cash buyers of property are only in it for one of two things. Speculating on upward price movements or to rent it out to a tenant with a long term view. The cash buyers have been incentivised to move their cash from the likes of savings to property due to high DIRT tax and added PRSI. The construction industry need to get real, adjust their cost base to meet the affordability of the demand, it ain't 2006 anymore.
No argument there on preference for an unemployed person having their "internship". Just don't use it to say its a way of saying unemployment figures going down when its not. There is still a welfare spend on that person no matter what scheme they are on. You can keep that person in internships for life, it won't make a difference till they gain employment.
My first post in this thread.
In that case why are they choosing property in large numbers as evidenced in this forum and in large numbers attending auctions? Why dont they choose equities or a whole list of other investments. The reason is simple enough - they see there is potential and that it is a low as prices will go.
So youre saying there isnt a break even point on house building? Its not economical to build a three bed house in the majority of Dublin for less than €150k probably even if you got the land for next to nothing. Thats being conservative. http://www.scsi.ie/news_reports/press_releases/scs_press_releases_2011/scshouserebuild2011
Can you tell me why 3 bed houses in Tallaght selling for between €60k - €180k in 2011 - 2012 would have made sense to encourage builders into the market?
Im sure the government are open to suggestions on what great ideas, working under extremely tight fiscal constraints they can do to encourage people to upskill and become more employable in a time of high unemployment apart from internships and offering nearly free education.0 -
DoubtingMary72 wrote: »I was a cash buyer in the last six months and neither of those things are true of me. I simply wanted a modest mortgage free house to live in. The price I paid was what I could afford based on my cash savings and it doesnt make a great deal of difference to me if it goes up or down in the future because my plan is to live out my days here - it's not an investment vehicle for me it's a stable roof over my head.
Funny how it seems cash buyers are being bandied around as a dirty thing, when like yourself we were cash buyers 2 years ago and the primary reason that we were cash buyers was that we were priced out of the market for a number of years, and subsequently refused finance.
So while I had first looked in 2005, it wasn't until the end of 2011 that we bought. We bought with the accumulation of 12 years savings, people tend to ignore that.
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Maybe...Barely Hedged wrote: »My first post in this thread.
In that case why are they choosing property in large numbers as evidenced in this forum and in large numbers attending auctions? Why dont they choose equities or a whole list of other investments. The reason is simple enough - they see there is potential and that it is a low as prices will go.
Or is it that they don't really understand equities and feel that they understand property better? If you're a flipper, equities turning out 5% dividends are going to appear boring and "30% price increases per annum" are going to be much to their liking.
We've had this argument before and it always falls apart when you query how other similarly developed countries can manage to do it for cheaper?So youre saying there isnt a break even point on house building? Its not economical to build a three bed house in the majority of Dublin for less than €150k probably even if you got the land for next to nothing. Thats being conservative. http://www.scsi.ie/news_reports/press_releases/scs_press_releases_2011/scshouserebuild2011
I've worked with enough civils to know that builders stick a huge amount of fat into their prices. Best way to trip them up is ask how much they built their own house for.
Market opportunity for somebody to price to the market.Can you tell me why 3 bed houses in Tallaght selling for between €60k - €180k in 2011 - 2012 would have made sense to encourage builders into the market?
Big problem though are union-mandated rates. The unions would appear to prefer brickies being out of work rather than working but for a little less.0 -
DoubtingMary72 wrote: »I was a cash buyer in the last six months and neither of those things are true of me. I simply wanted a modest mortgage free house to live in. The price I paid was what I could afford based on my cash savings and it doesnt make a great deal of difference to me if it goes up or down in the future because my plan is to live out my days here - it's not an investment vehicle for me it's a stable roof over my head.
Apologies, I should have stated "alot of" before the words as I was thinking of investors not PPR'ers.0 -
Maybe...
Or is it that they don't really understand equities and feel that they understand property better? If you're a flipper, equities turning out 5% dividends are going to appear boring and "30% price increases per annum" are going to be much to their liking.
We've had this argument before and it always falls apart when you query how other similarly developed countries can manage to do it for cheaper?
I've worked with enough civils to know that builders stick a huge amount of fat into their prices. Best way to trip them up is ask how much they built their own house for.
Market opportunity for somebody to price to the market.
Big problem though are union-mandated rates. The unions would appear to prefer brickies being out of work rather than working but for a little less.
What, somebody with a large pocket of cash in the bank doesnt understand equities. Really? The whole Wealth Management business in banking must be crumbling all around us.
So with low central bank rates, increased DIRT 41%, booming equities from the Fed and BoE QE and no value in house prices, why would you invest in property? The reason since 2011 - early 2012 property prices hit a bottom, otherwise why would cash buyers invest? They would still have their money elsewhere. They saw very little downside in 2011 - early 2012 due to the percentage falls in the market and economic indicators starting to turn and have proved well on that turn.
Builders need to charge a premium on anything they build in case you run into problems. As a very general example have you never seen property programmes on tv when people are gutting or building houses. The unforeseen issues they encounter that add thousands and tens of thousands to a build cost. Imagine this on the scale of a housing estate with 50-100 houses?
So we all get timber homes? Maybe people in Ireland prefer the longevity of brick, what with our crap wet weather. Moisture and wood dont really combine well.0 -
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Market opportunity for somebody to price to the market.
Big problem though are union-mandated rates. The unions would appear to prefer brickies being out of work rather than working but for a little less.
You could build a 3 bed house for less than €60k and make a profit to justify the months of planning, work and quantity of materials gone into it? What are you wasting your time on an internet forum? Get out there and make your millions0 -
Barely Hedged wrote: »Builders need to charge a premium on anything they build in case you run into problems. As a very general example have you never seen property programmes on tv when people are gutting or building houses. The unforeseen issues they encounter that add thousands and tens of thousands to a build cost. Imagine this on the scale of a housing estate with 50-100 houses?
No comparison there between a rebuilt/renovation and properly planned large scale build. The only reason a large scale build would experience problems is incompetence. Problems on rebuilds/renovations are because of other peoples incompetence. I did enough of both to know.0 -
Cuddlesworth wrote: »No comparison there between a rebuilt/renovation and properly planned large scale build. The only reason a large scale build would experience problems is incompetence. Problems on rebuilds/renovations are because of other peoples incompetence. I did enough of both to know.
In any case, just an example of what can go wrong but my point still stands. Can you imagine a company building houses on a large scale and selling at €60k - €150k a piece in Dublin?0 -
Barely Hedged wrote: »Market opportunity for somebody to price to the market.
Big problem though are union-mandated rates. The unions would appear to prefer brickies being out of work rather than working but for a little less.
You could build a 3 bed house for less than €60k and make a profit to justify the months of planning, work and quantity of materials gone into it? What are you wasting your time on an internet forum? Get out there and make your millions
You forgot to add [/strawman] to the end of your post.0 -
professore wrote: »Clearly if he sells now he has no house, and owes 80 grand. Assuming he had 30 grand deposit when he bought the house, he would be back to square one and 110K worse off. As long as he stays put and can service his mortgage he will do so.
You don't get what I was saying. Hes saying the house he bought is perfect .. location etc... so why does he want to sell ? If he doesn't want to sell it doesn't make any difference if the house is valued at 1euro.0 -
You forgot to add [/strawman] to the end of your post.
I said the price range was 60k - 150k in an earlier post. Build me something you could market for that in Dublin.
Opportunity to price to the market in construction! So you're saying that the construction industry is is easy to price and would never suffer budget overuns/quality of work issues etc? This would ensure optimal pricing structures. Ask any builder large, medium or small and you can be assured of his reaction.
The Straw Man comment is lazy and not merited in this case. If you don't feel you want to offer your opinion or don't habe anything to add, why bother with it?0 -
Barely Hedged wrote: »You could build a 3 bed house for less than €60k and make a profit to justify the months of planning, work and quantity of materials gone into it? What are you wasting your time on an internet forum? Get out there and make your millions
Constructive posts only please.You forgot to add [/strawman] to the end of your post.
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dont worry. everyone that comes to this forum get attacked for having optimistic view.
all you need just to tell them where the money will come from. no economical figure will matter when money start falling out of cloudy sky!!!
we will be booming again!!! building more houses !!! what else would you do with money!?0 -
dont worry. everyone that comes to this forum get attacked for having optimistic view.
all you need just to tell them where the money will come from. no economical figure will matter when money start falling out of cloudy sky!!!
we will be booming again!!! building more houses !!! what else would you do with money!?
I think people often miss that there are still a hell of a lot of people working and making money. Some of my friends never lost their job or got a pay cut. Others have even started earning more money. The shocking reality is there are lots of people that have been saving money as they were afraid to spend it.
I have more savings now than in the good times and there was the SSIA back then.0 -
Ray Palmer wrote: »I think people often miss that there are still a hell of a lot of people working and making money. Some of my friends never lost their job or got a pay cut. Others have even started earning more money. The shocking reality is there are lots of people that have been saving money as they were afraid to spend it.
I have more savings now than in the good times and there was the SSIA back then.
not just that but we now live in a global economy and that includes property , London is crazy and the arabs , Russians and Chinese who found it on a map are more than capable of realising that their were terrific bargains in Dublin a few years ago , Dublin is going to move much higher in the short to medium term0 -
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People are going to get really angry about this as they will see it as losing sovereignty of something Irish people are very emotional about, property.bella_doyle wrote: »not just that but we now live in a global economy and that includes property , London is crazy and the arabs , Russians and Chinese who found it on a map are more than capable of realising that their were terrific bargains in Dublin a few years ago , Dublin is going to move much higher in the short to medium term
I have always said as Ireland becomes more international things will change to be like other countries. In Ireland that mean home ownership has to decrease, we had the highest homeownership in the world and the next country Italy has a decreasing population.
Not sure how the figures look now but it was always destined to decrease here.0 -
Home ownership in Ireland can only decrease in the way you anticipate if long term renters are given much improved levels of security.
If home ownership is driven down purely on price, and a significant amount of the population find themselves at the mercy of cowboy landlords and having to move every couple of years on their whim, there will be significant social problems (riots potentially).0 -
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stevedublin wrote: »You mean being allowed to stay in the landlord's property without bothering to pay rent?
No not at all.
However I know a number of people who have had to move a few times in the space of a few years because their landlords decided they wanted to move back in, or sell the place, etc., etc.
For renting to be completely normalised, tenants need much more security. We need a class of professional landlords renting professionally maintained properties, with a professional attitude.
Some of the threads on this forum about how people are treated by their landlords are utterly amazing and shocking.0 -
No not at all.
However I know a number of people who have had to move a few times in the space of a few years because their landlords decided they wanted to move back in, or sell the place, etc., etc.
For renting to be completely normalised, tenants need much more security. We need a class of professional landlords renting professionally maintained properties, with a professional attitude.
Some of the threads on this forum about how people are treated by their landlords are utterly amazing and shocking.
The whole system in Ireland needs revision. There should not be incentives to purchase property and let it out an an investment. I'm not saying there should be penalties either but mortgage interest should not be tax deductible. Next there needs to be unfurnished long terms lets available. Evictions processes need to be streamlined and leases need to be secure for both parties.
The market should not be in a situation where rents are more expensive than mortgages, unless there is added value like high quality fitout, very desirable location (and that does not mean everywhere in Dublin), serviced apartments or short term lets.0 -
The whole system in Ireland needs revision. There should not be incentives to purchase property and let it out an an investment. I'm not saying there should be penalties either but mortgage interest should not be tax deductible
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That really is the last thing we need in an over heated rental sector.0 -
That really is the last thing we need in an over heated rental sector.
To be fair you're right, but it shouldn't have happened in the first place. We seem to have a talent for coming up with solutions for problems which never should have existed in the first place, or not in many cases.0 -
The whole system in Ireland needs revision. There should not be incentives to purchase property and let it out an an investment. I'm not saying there should be penalties either but mortgage interest should not be tax deductible. Next there needs to be unfurnished long terms lets available. Evictions processes need to be streamlined and leases need to be secure for both parties.
The market should not be in a situation where rents are more expensive than mortgages, unless there is added value like high quality fitout, very desirable location (and that does not mean everywhere in Dublin), serviced apartments or short term lets.
Rents actually have to be higher than mortgages. Otherwise landlords cannot make a profit.0 -
Rents actually have to be higher than mortgages. Otherwise landlords cannot make a profit.
No they don't and they shouldn't be in a functioning market. The LL ends up with an asset worth hundreds of thousands of Euro at the end of the mortgage cycle. He can continue to rent it at pure profit or sell it. The situation where LL can make money on a mortgaged property makes absolutely no sense, it drives up rents and house prices.
If I want a place to live (a basic human need), I should be able to get that at an affordable and sustainable amount. That should either be an affordable mortgage by virtue of house prices being affordable or if I want a shorter term solution I should be able to rent. By allowing people with money to buy up all the property and rent it out you simply make the poor, poorer and the rich richer.0 -
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Sorry I've rather dragged this off topic.
I'm less depressed today. A shed load of property in my price bracket has suddenly appeared in D8... looks like people are beginning to sell with the possibility of increasing prices?0
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