SIRO - ESB/Vodafone Fibre To The Home

Nollog

Time for another one of my mad ESB lookout things.

My boss has a dashcam for his car (which he mainly uses to look at and complain about people driving with their phones to their ears), picking up his kids from school somewhere in the Blackrock area of Cork City, there's a huge ESB presence.

We're talking 9001 vans, cones, a lolipop man (unaffiliated, most likely), a truck, with an ESB container on the back he said being used as a workshop.

They started this morning. The truck and container are right in front of an ESB cabinet.

dbit

/\/ollog wrote: »

Time for another one of my mad ESB lookout things.

My boss has a dashcam for his car (which he mainly uses to look at and complain about people driving with their phones to their ears), picking up his kids from school somewhere in the Blackrock area of Cork City, there's a huge ESB presence.

We're talking 9001 vans, cones, a lolipop man (unaffiliated, most likely), a truck, with an ESB container on the back he said being used as a workshop.

They started this morning. The truck and container are right in front of an ESB cabinet.

Spilcing lab !! yup yup yurt yat yurt outta that there , right daft.ie and Blackrock here i come .........

ED E

Splicing can normally be done in back of a small goods van, they just open the side and rear door and feed it through. Wouldnt need a shipping container unless its a really big operation, but maybe by the sounds of it.

They could just be moving underground runs, eircom have had a huge presence around college green up here lately moving main pairs pre luas cross city.

dbit

lol only saw it now, 9000 and 1 pmsl . Check out my email on gmail :- over9000mtu@gmail.com < not hacked YET !

kaizersoze

ED E wrote: »

Splicing can normally be done in back of a small goods van, they just open the side and rear door and feed it through. Wouldnt need a shipping container unless its a really big operation, but maybe by the sounds of it.

They could just be moving underground runs, eircom have had a huge presence around college green up here lately moving main pairs pre luas cross city.

One of the jointing units.....

ardmacha

Could Irish water install fibre while digging up/replacing pipes and have a water/broadband/phone/tv offering!
maybe install wifi in every metre box and have a public wifi service.

dbit

ardmacha wrote: »

Could Irish water install fibre while digging up/replacing pipes and have a water/broadband/phone/tv offering!
maybe install wifi in every metre box and have a public wifi service.

They already do that, they transmit radio from each device :-P

bk

dbit wrote: »

They already do that, they transmit radio from each device :-P

Though it is very short range, a van needs to drive very closely by to pick it up.

KOR101

dbit wrote: »

KOR101 wrote: »

An interesting question is whether the ESB will have permanently lower costs than Eircom because they can piggyback on their electricity infrastructure. Where does that leave Eircom?

Ed e and the lads wil tell you that Eircom have way more Fiber infrastructure then the other houses as it is now , currently they are closer to homes with last mile of copper to tie up from vdsl cabs . Each vdsl cab has a 24 core fiber lying with at least 20 fibers dormant intended for the last mile run from cabs to homes. So capacity for 640 homes for FTTH on each cab they can further split that out with more gear in cabs.

http://www.eircomwholesale.ie/news/FTTH_Pricing/

I appreciate that Eircom have a big First-Mover advantage, but that's not an economics argument as Eircom's investment has a cost which is still being paid for.

The point is about say 5-years down the line, when the ESB have implemented their plan, and say Eircom have matched them. So, you have two FTTH networks, well how will their costs compare.

How big is the cost advantage of being able to use existing poles, ducts sub-station sites, etc.?

How much of a cost disadvantge is there to having to partner with Vodaphone?

How much of a market advantage is there to being first-mover.? -In the BB market, not a lot, I would say.

Is there a cost advantage to NOT being first-mover, because you can benefit from what you know about Eircom's experience? Can the ESB use better hardware technology than Eircom because it is later to the game?

A lot of the posters here know about about the technologies being used (I don't), so this is a question. On a 20-30 year view, with two FTTH networks in place, does the ESB have much of a cost advantage over Eircom?

bk wrote: »

Anyway, the ESB will have to be cheaper if they want to win customers away from Eircom. Just like UPC did in their areas of operation.

I'd say Eircom are hoping that by moving so decisively that the ESB may lose heart and curtail their ambitions. Their nightmare is if the ESB wins the NBP (hard to stay strictly on-topic) on top of their urban plan. Then, they could face a long-term competitor in all their markets, and one with potentially (?) lower costs.

dbit

bk wrote: »

Though it is very short range, a van needs to drive very closely by to pick it up.

Impededs wifi , phone and radio for up to 3 mteres.

MajesticDonkey

bk wrote: »

Though it is very short range, a van needs to drive very closely by to pick it up.

Up to 100-150 metres actually, depending on surroundings...

dbit

MajesticDonkey wrote: »

Up to 100-150 metres actually, depending on surroundings...

Im sure some teenagers did a survey on them for young scientists and they reported severe impedance up to 3 meters , it'll reach a lot further as you say , i don't doubt that I was making reference to the interference aspect.

My wifi point was by the front door of my house - this then was only 3 feet from my water meter had to move my ap to get cleaner signal around the house. MOD cops are looking so im gonna ssshhh now.

bk

KOR101 wrote: »

The point is about say 5-years down the line, when the ESB have implemented their plan, and say Eircom have matched them. So, you have two FTTH networks, well how will their costs compare.

Well 5 years from now, Eircom will still have the same disadvantages. They will still have to maintain both the copper and FTTH networks, where ESB will have only one modern network to maintain.

Also Eircom will still have the much more expensive debt to pay off, this is really the big one.

At 15 to 20 years, Eircom might be finally start to retire the majority of their copper network, so that might help with the first problem. However they will likely still be paying down the debt they raised 30 years from now and they will be paying substantially more for it then ESB/Vodafone.

KOR101 wrote: »

How big is the cost advantage of being able to use existing poles, ducts sub-station sites, etc.?

Hard to say. Rumour has it that Eircoms rural pole network is in a pretty bad state and maybe not strong enough to take new fiber cable. That would give the ESB a significant advantage in rural Ireland and thus the NBP, as obviously it would cost Eircom much more to upgrade their pole network.

That is why I guess Eircom has been making noise about getting access to the ESB's poles.

In urban areas I'd expect there is little difference as both have extensive and well developed pole and duct infrastructure.

KOR101 wrote: »

How much of a cost disadvantge is there to having to partner with Vodaphone?

Non that I can see, they are both investing in it 50:50, should they both would take out profits from it 50:50.

The only issue I would see is if they disagree on plans, future development etc.

KOR101 wrote: »

How much of a market advantage is there to being first-mover.? -In the BB market, not a lot, I would say.

Well Eircom would certainly have a much easier time, been known as an internet provider and having an existing relationship with most people in these areas. You would be surprised at how many people are slow to change and don't want to move off what they already know.

Just look at UPC, they have done very well winning almost 40 to 50% of customers in the areas they service. However you really have to wonder about those 50 to 60% of people who still with Eircom paying significantly more for speed 3 to 4 times slower then UPC!

KOR101 wrote: »

Is there a cost advantage to NOT being first-mover, because you can benefit from what you know about Eircom's experience? Can the ESB use better hardware technology than Eircom because it is later to the game?

Yes and no. Well Eircom going VDSL much later then BT in the UK or AT&T in the US, means they got much better performing, more mature technology and I bet it cost less too.

Obviously ESB has a cost advantage in not having rolled out a copper network 30 years ago!

However it we are talking about FTTH today, not really. It is a pretty mature technology now, the majority of cost is in the civils and labour.

From the rumours we have heard, ESB and Eircom are using pretty much the same GPON technology. Eircom would seem to have an advantage in that they seemed to have built the foundation for their FTTH network while building their FTTC network.

KOR101 wrote: »

A lot of the posters here know about about the technologies being used (I don't), so this is a question. On a 20-30 year view, with two FTTH networks in place, does the ESB have much of a cost advantage over Eircom?

As I mentioned above, Eircom will still have a much more expensive debt to finance. That will have a big impact on the cost.

KOR101 wrote: »

I'd say Eircom are hoping that by moving so decisively that the ESB may lose heart and curtail their ambitions. Their nightmare is if the ESB wins the NBP (hard to stay strictly on-topic) on top of their urban plan. Then, they could face a long-term competitor in all their markets, and one with potentially (?) lower costs.

Yes, this 1000 times.

I believe Eircom expanded and speed up the rollout of FTTC and now FTTH in the hope that it will discourage ESB/Vodafone from going ahead. And you know what it could actually work! ESB/Vodafone will have a much more difficult time competing with the newly aggressive Eircom, if Eircom quickly roll out FTTH.

UPC hit Eircom at the perfect time, when Eircom was being run into the ground by bad management. It will be much harder for the ESB to compete with this new Eircom. Not impossible, just more difficult.

ED E

Eircoms rural plant is in tatters in places. Yulonis posted picks of the main pairs totally exposed up north, and Ive seen the same on the south coast.

Even north county dublin has some pretty neglected poles.


The real problem if eircom want to overhaul this (they have KNN under contract, construction work is their forte) is access, many poles are on the far side of the ditch and will require them to enter private land. ESB have a blanket way leave, eircom do not. If they could get this changed as a precursor for the NBP that'd make a big difference.


Its worth noting that COMREG published a doc about a new access product where eircom would lease out their ducts, have to wonder if they're going to open theirs then insist the ESB should open their poles in order to be fair.

yuloni

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bk

yuloni wrote: »

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True, fiber is much more resilient to weather and from all the reports I've seen the opex of a fiber network is much lower then a copper network.

However the problem is will Comreg allow it to decommission the copper network? Or will Eircom be forced to run the copper network in parallel with the FTTH network?

Certainly in urban areas, the LLU providers will probably go nuts if Eircom tried to decommission their copper network. We have already seen that they maybe blocking the rollout of EVDSL and as much as I don't like it, they may well have a solid argument that they are entitled to get further return on investment from their LLU gear and the copper network.

Then you have the issue of the PSTN network been needed for certain services like fax, Sky, monitored alarms, etc. Finally there is the fact that PSTN continues to work during power outages, where FTTH doesn't. Important for calling emergency services.

So there is no guarantee Eircom would be allowed to rip out it's copper network.

I'm not sure what Comregs position on this is, it would be interesting if anyone knows?

My own position is that at least in areas without LLU, Eircom should not only be allowed to rip out the copper network, but should be encouraged to do so. If they are allowed to do so, then as you say I think they are much more likely to speedily deploy FTTH, in particular in NBP areas. However some conditions should be put on it:

- The network is completely open at a wholesale level to other companies to resell.
- That Eircom makes sure there are solutions to mitigate disturbance to services that require copper and perhaps even pay for these services to be switched over to fiber solutions.
- That Eircom puts in place at least some sort of consumer side battery backup for the FTTH voice service to contact emergency services.

In urban areas with LLU, it will be much more complicated. However I think it may well just be in Eircoms interest to fire ahead with the rollout of FTTH and leave the copper network in place in parallel for a few years. Eventually people will get sick of max 24Mb/s ADSL2+ and eventually switch over to FTTH. Making it more likely the LLU operators won't object.

Yes more expensive for Eircom, but probably the best solution and they can use FTTH to win back customers from both the LLU operators and UPC.

yuloni wrote: »

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I wouldn't be so sure about that. Clearly Eircom have more experience in this and already have half the network in place (the extra fiber pairs to the FTTC cabs), but I wouldn't say Eircom have a significant advantage in install teams, etc.

Eircom left go most of their teams over the years, keeping just a core team for emergency repairs, etc. The majority of new install work, FTTC, etc. seems to be done by KN Networks nowadays. I expect KN will be doing much of the FTTH installs for both Eircom and ESB. So I wouldn't think that would make much difference.

As I discussed above, if Eircom are forced to keep their copper network in place and operational and the will be for at least a few years as people are transitioned over to FTTH, then their opex is going to be more then double the ESB's during this period.

Also you have to consider the financing of these projects. Given Eircoms massive debts, it will cost them almost twice as much to raise the money for the capital expenditure for this FTTH network as it would the ESB.

yuloni

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murphaph

We only have VoIP at home since switching to VDSL through a reseller of Deutsche Telekom. They simply don't offer a line back to the exchange. No power, no phone. In the age of mobile phones I don't think it's necessary.

bk

yuloni wrote: »

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It certainly would be in Eircoms interest to do that, but I'm not certain how the regulator would react to that.

It is a difficult problem. On the one hand I certainly want to see healthy competition being developed. On the other hand it seems to me that there is little or no chance of the LLU operators rolling out their own VDSL or FTTH. If that is the case, they I don't want to see them standing in the way of progress.

It is a pity Comreg hasn't forced Eircom to go with P2P fiber instead of GPON. That would have allowed a form of fiber LLU. P2P FTTH would mean an individual fiber running from each home to the exchange. Which would make it relatively easy for a fiber to be switched over to a LLU in the exchange. This is compared to GPON where a single fiber from the exchange to the cabinet is then shared by 32 premises beyond the cab, thus making traditional LLU infeasible.

The disadvantage of P2P is that it is about 30% more expensive then GPON, plus Eircom has little incentive in making life easy for it's competitors. So they would have only gone with P2P if forced to do so by Comreg. But then that raises the question if Comreg would even have the power to force that and if they did, would Eircom then be much slower to rollout FTTH.

However not all hope is lost, there is a potential for wavelength unbundling. The next generation of GPON looks to be TDWM-PON, where up to four separate wavelengths are used to deliver 10Gb/s x 4 for a total of 40Gb/s. This could allow unbundling where 4 different companies are each given their own wavelength to use as they want.

yuloni wrote: »

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That is interesting, I assume that is trunk coax from one rural exchange to a larger one, where the rural exchange has now been upgraded to be feed with fiber?

The next obvious step is for Eircom to implement VoIP for the VDSL users and it can then decommission the copper between the cab and the exchange (the E-Side). I've read elsewhere that you can save as much as 50% of the install cost of VDSL2 by removing the copper and selling it! And that is without even considering the improved OPEX of a simpler network.

However Eircom would face a few problems with this:

1) Obviously LLU operators would object to this happening at any LLU enabled exchange.
2) Have to be careful not to remove any ADSL2+ pairs or voice only pairs that also run in parallel with the VDSL cab. However I believe the VDSL cabs can also do ADSL2+ and voice only (basically a mini exchange). If they activated these in the cab it would obviously make it easier to decommission the fiber. It would also be a big boost for people stuck on ADSL2+ who are more then 2km from a cab they pass.

Nollog

bk wrote: »

TDWM-PON, where up to four separate wavelengths are used to deliver 10Gb/s x 4 for a total of 40Gb/s. This could allow unbundling where 4 different companies are each given their own wavelength to use as they want.

I'd rather the 40 jiggabits personally, even if I have no use for them.

If eircom laid the copper, surely they should be able to dig them up and sell the copper so long as they offer an alternative to their (wholesale or otherwise) customer.

bk

/\/ollog wrote: »

I'd rather the 40 jiggabits personally, even if I have no use for them.

You could always order a connection from each of the 4 companies and combine them in your router with load balancing.

It would actually offer higher resiliency then a single company. Sure it wouldn't help if a JCB dug through the fiber going to your home, but it would help if one of the companies backhauls or networks was damaged or congested.

As you say no one has any need for 40Gb/s, so better to use it to improve competition.

BTW as it is a PON technology, that 40Gb/s would be shared amongst 32 premises.

/\/ollog wrote: »

If eircom laid the copper, surely they should be able to dig them up and sell the copper so long as they offer an alternative to their (wholesale or otherwise) customer.

That isn't the way it works. Remember it was the tax payer who built the majority of the copper network and Eircom took on certain regulatory responsibilities when it was privatised. Also it has certain responsibility due to having Significant Market Power (SMP).

LLU operators aren't just simple bitstream resellers, they invested significantly in LLU equipment and they have certain rights to see that copper maintained so they can receive a fair return on their investment.

yuloni

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ED E

yuloni wrote: »

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Nah, currently its 4x for the NGA node + 20 for customers. In dense areas to do P2P youd need 4+300 or more runs of glass. Thats just too much for the duct network to handle. Remember 20xGPON= 600 end users.

lucernarian

It's a different ball game if they replace existing plant with fibre-optic cables. A fibre optic cable take up around 1/8 of the cross-sectional area of a typical Irish PSTN copper pair. A single typical corning single-mode fibre cable, including cladding and coating is a quarter of a millimetre in diameter. Compared to two 0.5 millmetre diameter(before PVC insulation) copper pairs.

There may be greater armouring needed if eircom ducts actually do have rats in them etc. but fibre would still take up a fraction of the space, especially if deployed in larger multi-strand cables.

SpaceTime

All ducts potentially have rodents in them. That's nothing unique to eircom.

lucernarian

SpaceTime wrote: »

All ducts potentially have rodents in them. That's nothing unique to eircom.

What's your point here? Armoured cables will still take up a small proportion of the space that existing copper cabling would.

On a related note, I remember reading before that BT claimed PTP fibre would only cost 10% more than a GPON deployment but I can't find access to those claims now.

bk

yuloni wrote: »

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The 30% figure I read came from a report by independent analysts into the possibilities for LLU on FTTH.

I only had access to the report summary, so I've no idea of the details.

GPON means one fiber to the cabinet, is split to 32 fibers to premises. Eircom has 24 fibers running to each FTTC cab, 4 for VDSL and the other 20 spare for FTTH upgrade. So you would need 644 pairs for PTP instead of just 24.

You would also need 644 Optical Line Terminals (OLT) in the exchange, instead of just 24 for GPON.

So 30% more seems reasonable for all that extra fiber cable and OLT gear.

lucernarian wrote: »

It's a different ball game if they replace existing plant with fibre-optic cables. A fibre optic cable take up around 1/8 of the cross-sectional area of a typical Irish PSTN copper pair. A single typical corning single-mode fibre cable, including cladding and coating is a quarter of a millimetre in diameter. Compared to two 0.5 millmetre diameter(before PVC insulation) copper pairs.

But that only works out if you remove the copper first to make space for the fiber. But that will never happen! Even if Eircom are left to decommission the copper network, practically speaking they can only do this once everyone is already on FTTH. So they need to fit those fibers into the existing ducts alongside the copper pairs and then later carefully pull out those copper pairs.

However that leaves me with an interesting idea. Once Eircom pulls the copper out, perhaps the LLU companies could run their own fiber, either GPON or P2P from the exchange to the cabs in the Eircom ducts and then connect up to the customers on the last mile Eircom FTTH fiber.

yuloni

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bk

yuloni wrote: »

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Exactly I could possibly see a LLU doing their own GPON at the cab or P2P in future.

It would also allow Eircom to also do P2P if higher speeds are required in the future (log term).

yuloni wrote: »

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The opposite is also possible and probably more likely. That the poles wouldn't have the strength and space to take 600 extra pairs. Don't forget these fibers need to be wrapped in weather proof armour installation if exposed on poles.

yuloni wrote: »

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Well obviously not every place will need all 600, but most areas will and some need even more!

Remember, at the moment Eircom only has a take up rate of 20% for VDSL, so 192 ISAM might be fine for the moment, but there is likely far more then 192 pairs passing the cab in most places. And if we are talking about an all fiber future, then you would likely need far more then 192 pairs for most cabs.

Not a hundred meters from me there are two VDSL cabs within 2 meters of one another. So at least 384 pairs there. And another 2 cabs just 50 meters down the road!

Also there are cabs with 2 ISAMS giving you 384 pairs in one cabs. These are the cabs that haven't gotten vectoring yet, they need Node Level Vectoring. I expect Eircom will add more ISAMS and ports to the VDSL cabs as more people switch over to VDSL.

The point being, if you were to do P2P, you would need far more fiber in the cuts
heading back to the exchange. And that means more cost.

bloodyhawk

bk wrote: »

GPON means one fiber to the cabinet, is split to 32 fibers to premises.
.

B.K, correct me if i am wrong, but wouldn't Gpon network limit the full 1GB bandwidth as it is shared with other customers? How would this compare with single fibre links for every customer? Would traffic/routing be any different