Very strong winds developing south, east; storm watch late Tuesday

sandin · 31-01-2014 10:59pm

loads of flight cancellations tomorrow - esp to uk. Birmingham airport expect to be closed as even a moderate storm can cause major problem there, so tomorrow's weather will cause them and other problems.

http://www.dublinairport.com/gns/flight-information/live-departures.aspx

ectoraige · 31-01-2014 11:00pm

Shady Tady wrote: »

Snow here on top of Croagh Patrick

Say a prayer for the lads in Cork while you're up there.

Shady Tady · 31-01-2014 11:02pm

ectoraige wrote: »

Say a prayer for the lads in Cork while you're up there.

I'm half way down, will I go back up?

Xenji · 31-01-2014 11:06pm

Taken from the Aer Lingus facebook page

TRAVEL ADVISORY - Saturday 01 February.

Due to forecast adverse weather, a number of Saturday morning's flights have been cancelled. Please check flight status at www.aerling.us/fltinfo before travelling to the airport. Affected customers can re-book free of charge or cancel and apply for a refund at www.aerlingus.com. We apologise for this inconvenience.

Spring Onion · 31-01-2014 11:07pm

Shady Tady wrote: »

I'm half way down, will I go back up?

Stay at the church, I'll be up there in oohh 5 hours with some soup and sambos. We'll watch the dawn singing ABBA songs.

ectoraige · 31-01-2014 11:09pm

Shady Tady wrote: »

I'm half way down, will I go back up?

Nah, they're not worth it. All quiet here in Sligo now

M.T. Cranium · 31-01-2014 11:12pm

Slow-moving systems mean that changes are sometimes very slow to set in, and that conditions can remain static for many hours. In this particular case, the very slow approach could be helpful in taking a bit off the top of the high tides at around 0600h but on the other hand, the water won't drain back out very easily with the peak conditions right behind and lasting for so long that then you need to ask about the next high tide and how that's going to go.

Same with winds, a brief rampage of 150 km/hr gusts may not do as much damage as six or seven hours of constant 120 km/hr gusts, and if it's closer to 130 ... this is why I feel that some might under-estimate the potential of this event. The fact that it's filling after 06z is also deceiving because it remains almost as intense in terms of gradient for the southern half of the country, the rising pressures in the centre will just be a curiosity factor.

The fact that this storm is aiming to come inland and not to swerve away to the north makes it different too, and may be what causes higher gusts in some inland locations. Finally there's the uncertainty factor which almost always seems to lie on the weaker side of model output but what if this is the one case where intensity outperforms the models? Then you get hit by something totally unforeseen if we confine the discussion to level 2.

The pressure is now falling a bit faster after a few hours of slight falls, at the K4 buoy. It is soon going to reach 960 mb and the low at 56N 17W looks to be at least 945 if not lower. Landfall is currently estimated to be 0900h near or just south of Belmullet on a vector slightly south of due east, becoming due east after reaching the Shannon.

Naturally, I hope any damage is slight and that these potential storm surges remain manageable, but I would advise people in Kerry to be mindful that they are in a location that maximizes the sea state vs time of strongest winds and tides, meaning that if anything severe does materialize, it could be quite serious there.

We've discussed this before but to be clear, the track will tend to create a regime of decreasing wind speeds north of the track of low pressure so that people in that region will likely see stronger winds early tonight and late tomorrow than during the period of lowest pressures. In fact the storm will likely have a nearly calm centre and some of you may experience that in Mayo, Sligo, Leitrim east to parts of Monaghan, Cavan, Armagh, Down. If you do get this calm centre your winds would likely be SE to S ahead of the centre and would slowly pick up SW to NW afterwards.

ninebeanrows · 31-01-2014 11:13pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Here is a comparison between winds on the night of the 26th/27th last month and what the 18Z GFS is showing for peak gusts over the south/east tomorrow.

The Stephen's Day storm was both stronger and had a significantly wider windfield over Ireland than what is shown for tomorrow.

I don't see how it could be as strong let alone stronger?

That's not to say it won't be very windy at times...but no worse than we've seen this winter already.

Not too sure about those charts being the be all and end all, they are still forecast charts and the analysed charts showed the gradient to be somewhat less tight than was forecast just 6hrs out.

Let's just say, the max gust at Dublin Airport during the storm was 63 knots. I'd give it a 70% chance of that being equalled or beaten tomorrow

signostic · 31-01-2014 11:16pm

Snow in Castlebar - shsn - mod shower, 1cm cover..

Cogsy88 · 31-01-2014 11:18pm

signostic wrote: »

Snow in Castlebar - shsn - mod shower, 1cm cover..

Pictures??

Oscar Bravo · 31-01-2014 11:21pm

go back a couple of pages, a few pictures of snow in Castlebar

TheBody · 31-01-2014 11:25pm

Very windy and snowing in Mullingar at the minute.

signostic · 31-01-2014 11:28pm

Cogsy88 wrote: »

Pictures??

signostic · 31-01-2014 11:30pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

go back a couple of pages, a few pictures of snow in Castlebar

post #248 nice pic of Christ Church...

Xenji · 31-01-2014 11:53pm

signostic wrote: »

post #248 nice pic of Christ Church...

Cheers.

Fitzo · 01-02-2014 12:00am

Snowed for a good hour in Sligo. Heavy, wet snow. Good covering. Trained for 2 hours in it, I'm still freezing.

downwiththatsor · 01-02-2014 12:09am

Very very heavy hail shower and squall just arrived in farranfore now.
Wind has really picked up and satellite signal being affected a little, ground is white in less than a minute, very intense.

Turned to wet snow / sleet now as it clears.

RoisinD · 01-02-2014 12:10am

Winds starting to increase here, nothing major, gusting to just over 40mph. While I know that snow is important to some I wondered if there are any updates from the buoys as to wave heights and wind speeds etc ?

NW Clare

Oscar Bravo · 01-02-2014 12:14am

Hey Roisin, a lot of the buoys are not reporting wave height /outa service for the past 24 hours.

BLIZZARD7 · 01-02-2014 12:19am

Very light sleet in Dublin now.

snowgal · 01-02-2014 12:20am

Snow in trim now too, hope it hangs around awhile

foxy06 · 01-02-2014 12:21am

heading up the wicklow mountains tomorrow night. reckon it's safe enough? glenmalure lodge and back after midnight. I'm a bit worried about the weather warning

by car not hiking!

cotton · 01-02-2014 12:28am

Windgates Greystones. Picking up quickly up on the hill here, getting dramatic fast. Not a school night so looking forward to it.

osheen · 01-02-2014 12:31am

Wet snow in stamullen . Very windy

Tactical · 01-02-2014 12:33am

foxy06 wrote: »

heading up the wicklow mountains tomorrow night. reckon it's safe enough? glenmalure lodge and back after midnight. I'm a bit worried about the weather warning

by car not hiking!

Ring ahead to your venue and ask about the local conditions prior to travelling and take into account that they may worsen while you are at your destination with the possibility of you having to remain there.

If you are travelling, bring appropriate supplies such as warm clothes and sugary drinks, torch, spare batteries, blanket etc...

If you are in doubt about conditions, pay attention to any worsening conditions and turn back sooner rather than push on a little bit more and find yourself stranded.

Use your judgement.