Ukraine on the brink of civil war. Mod Warning in OP.

Elmer Blooker

woodrow wyatt wrote: »

The USA was excluded from the peace talks and we see the results , France,Germany and Russia have got the result the world wanted,Peace.

Yes we're seeing the results alright! The depressing and predictable reaction to any talk of peace. "we're in charge here Angela"
http://rt.com/news/231255-pentagon-europe-exercises-ukraine/

Shurimgreat

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Yes we're seeing the results alright! The depressing and predictable reaction to any talk of peace. "we're in charge here Angela"
http://rt.com/news/231255-pentagon-europe-exercises-ukraine/

Its laughable how Russians think its their right to interfere in Ukraine but if anyone else gets involved, they are asked to mind their own business.

I guess the Russians haven't got the memo about the Cold War being over and needing to respect other nations even those in their own backyard.

The days of puppet governments beholden to Moscow are long over.

Gatling

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Yes we're seeing the results alright! The depressing and predictable reaction to any talk of peace. "we're in charge here Angela"
http://rt.com/news/231255-pentagon-europe-exercises-ukraine/

And earlier in the month US Army europe said It will be sending a battalion to Kiev to train 3 battalions of the Ukrainian army .

So I took this from the NY times

"Under Thursday’s deal, both sides must stop firing on each other at midnight on Saturday. That leaves 48 hours during which both sides may try to claim additional territory. The fiercest fighting will probably continue near Debaltseve, an important rail junction held by Ukrainian forces that the separatists claim to have surrounded. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe is to monitor the cease-fire, but it cannot enforce it.

Where will the new dividing lines be?

The situation on the ground favors the separatists.

Ukrainian officials have said that the rebels gained control over more than 500 square kilometers, or almost 200 square miles, of additional territory since the September cease-fire deal. Under the new agreement, both sides are required to withdraw heavy artillery to create a 30-mile demilitarized buffer zone. But the agreement does not explicitly demarcate the line. Ukraine is required to withdraw from the “current front lines,” which may change by Saturday. Separatist forces are supposed to withdraw behind the September line.

What about Ukraine’s border with Russia?

Under the new agreement, Ukraine will regain control of its border with Russia by the end of 2015 if the government makes political concessions, including the adoption of constitutional amendments to decentralize power.

Mr. Poroshenko must sell those reforms to a wartime Parliament in Kiev that might see this agreement as a capitulation and scuttle the deal.

What about the humanitarian situation?

The government in Kiev agreed to resume paying pensions and other social benefits to residents of southeastern Ukraine, a significant victory for Moscow, which has accused Mr. Poroshenko of levying an “economic blockade.” The return of social benefits will aid residents in combat zones and bolster the standing of the rebel governments while further depleting Ukraine’s budget.

What about Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO and the European Union?

Moscow has demanded assurances that Kiev will not join the European Union or NATO. Thursday's agreement did not allow for rebels to have their own foreign policy, but the political concessions the Ukrainian government must make give the separatists — and Moscow — leverage. Plus, further integration with Europe may be difficult under current political and economic conditions in Ukraine.

What about Crimea?

Crimea, the peninsula annexed by Russia from Ukraine last March, was not addressed in the agreement.

Are there other conditions?

Kiev promised to grant amnesty to fighters in the southeast. Illegal militias (both pro-Ukrainian and separatist forces) are to disband, and foreign mercenaries are to leave the country. These provisions were included in the previous agreement, but were never enforced. “All prisoners of war are to be exchanged. Mr. Poroshenko has called for the release of Nadiya V. Savchenko, a Ukrainian pilot, but she is being held in Moscow on criminal charges.

Who is going to enforce this?

The O.S.C.E. is to monitor the cease-fire and new local elections to be held in rebel territory before the end of the year. France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine are also required to form working groups that will meet regularly to monitor the agreement. Ultimately there are no provisions for enforcement. The agreement will hold only if both sides stand by it.."

so the rebels have increased there land size by 200 square miles since the last cease fire ccompletely unjustified there suppost to withdraw to the September lines from the minsk agreement .
Again there is no mention of how this will or can be enforced .
Ukraine can get control of its borders by the end of 2015 only of they agree to decentralize power .again completely unjust and can't be enforced.
Also russia maintains that ukraine can't or won't be allowed to join the EU or Nato .
Again completely unjust why the EU even allowed that to be mentioned is unreal .

Going by this ukraine gets nothing and russia maintains a boot over the head of the Ukrainian population.
A peace agreement that favours a foreign invader that has no chance of been enforced and the invader will keep supplying troops and equipment

Shurimgreat

Expecting two sides to abide by the ceasefire without an intermediary force is optimistic.

It only takes one guy with a trigger happy finger to start everything up again. And the separatists don't seem to listen to anyone.

This ceasefire won't even last a week. Some interesting reports of new Russian tanks being moved across the border. Looks like they will indeed try to make a final push.

Icepick

Nobody sane can believe Putin. Immediately after the 'peace' talks, the Kremlin started another massive offensive in Ukraine.
Mariupol is again under attack despite there being no popular support for Russia and Putin.

Gatling

Icepick wrote: »

Nobody sane can believe Putin. Immediately after the 'peace' talks, the Kremlin started another massive offensive in Ukraine.
Mariupol is again under attack despite there being no popular support for Russia and Putin.

Several areas currently no where near previous lines are been shelled and attacked trying to draw more people into the conflict

Harry Palmr

Classic pre-ceasefire land grab.

Icepick

The Peace Agreement Proves Putin Was Lying All Along

“Although probably accidentally, the document provided proof of direct Russian military involvement in the conflict. Among the heavy weapons to be withdrawn is the Tornado-S, which is explicitly mentioned. This high-tech, long- range multiple-launch rocket system (MLRS) entered into service in the Russian Federation in 2012, and is operated by no other state. Hence, if Tornados are to be withdrawn from the conflict zone, they could not have originated from anywhere but Russia.”

Ren2k7

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Classic pre-ceasefire land grab.

You seem to think there will be a ceasefire in the first place. There won't, as Russia has no interest in ending this war until it has a land route to Crimea. Already armoured columns are crossing from Russia into Ukraine along its southern coast to bolster the Russia forces currently on the back foot in Novoazovsk, where the Azov Battalion is on the offensive.

Elmer Blooker

Ren2k7 wrote: »

You seem to think there will be a ceasefire in the first place. There won't, as Russia has no interest in ending this war until it has a land route to Crimea. Already armoured columns are crossing from Russia into Ukraine along its southern coast to bolster the Russia forces currently on the back foot in Novoazovsk, where the Azov Battalion is on the offensive.

Yes it must be true. I just saw Jen Psaki say so on on BBC News a few minutes ago.

woodrow wyatt

Just seen a British government minister on sky news lying through his teeth about Russia. Doing his best to paint them as bad guys, some examples
1.“Russia invade Georgia”
2.”Russia cut of the gas to Ukraine”

Well1 ,Georgia encouraged by the west attacked Russia first, and then got smacked down.
and 2, any housewife can tell you , if you don’t pay the gas bill you will get cut off.

This is the type of nonsense anti Russian propaganda that is pushed on us here in the west, its pathetic stuff, they go on TV and push these lies, surely they know people have access to the internet and can see its BS, do the political class in the west have complete contempt for the citizens?

The politician was pushing hard to escalate the conflict in Ukraine, sent more weapons and trainers to the Ukraine, they have not even given the Minsk agreement 12 hours to see if it will work.
Whats that all about?

gandalf

Well I suppose it has to be with the fact that Russia has inflated or even created this whole conflict for its own warped goals. They have pumped an occupied area in another sovereign nation full of heavy weapons (Like the Tornado-S MLRS mentioned specifically in the Minsk agreement), mecenaries and their own actual troops which has driven and escalated the mayhem, loss of human life and destruction in what essentially was an internal conflict. Of course they have done wrong, interfered with another state directly, caused the deaths directly or indirectly of civilians and troops of another country, broken international law. Only the most deluded would claim otherwise.

Given the reports of the Russians pumping more heavy weapons into the occupied regions of Eastern Ukraine after the signing of the agreement we see exactly what Putin and the Junta in the Kremlin think of the peace plan.

woodrow wyatt

gandalf wrote: »

Given the reports of the Russians pumping more heavy weapons into the occupied regions of Eastern Ukraine after the signing of the agreement we see exactly what Putin and the Junta in the Kremlin think of the peace plan.

They must be confidant that the Nazi Junta in Kiev have no intention of keeping the peace, who knows what information the kremlin has access to. Better to be prepared, Kiev broke the last truce, they will more than likely break this one egged on by their western masters.

Gatling

woodrow wyatt wrote: »

They must be confidant that the Nazi Junta in Kiev have no intention of keeping the peace, who knows what information the kremlin has access to. Better to be prepared, Kiev broke the last truce, they will more than likely break this one egged on by their western masters.

Kiev broke the last one? but yet rebels took control of 200+ miles of terroity past the lines set out in the minsk agreement .
Also rebels have already claimed they can attack any target once they believe it belongs to them

Fiery mutant

The separatists say that the ceasefire will not be observed in Debaltseve, as it is 'our territory', which seeing as how they have not conquered it, is very strange.

Also the U.S. say the column seen crossing the border recently were a regular russian unit which attempted the encirclement of the town in recent days. Reuters journalists witnessed insignia-less troops in recent days, sounds more like the little green men we were introduced to last year.

The more this goes on, the more I think it's time to arm Ukraine. Putin is a crazy, and no amount of democratic appeasement is going to change him.

gandalf

woodrow wyatt wrote: »

They must be confidant that the Nazi Junta in Kiev have no intention of keeping the peace, who knows what information the kremlin has access to. Better to be prepared, Kiev broke the last truce, they will more than likely break this one egged on by their western masters.

Hmmm interesting you call people Nazi's yet it is the Russians using the Sudetenland playbook from 1938. Actions speak louder than words for most sane individuals with the exception of the residents of Savushkin Street of course

woodrow wyatt

gandalf wrote: »

Hmmm interesting you call people Nazi's yet it is the Russians using the Sudetenland playbook from 1938. Actions speak louder than words for most sane individuals with the exception of the residents of Savushkin Street of course

You could say the workers in the Harry S Truman Building are working over time to push their agenda, unfortunately for them time will do a fantastic job in debunking the nonsense put out in the western media.
it will hurt more when the gullible supporters of the Junta in Kiev are proven wrong not by posters here, but by undisputed facts on the ground.

Gatling

woodrow wyatt wrote: »

but by undisputed facts on the ground.

According to you , the Kremlin or the russian army units in Ukraine? ?

gandalf

woodrow wyatt wrote: »

You could say the workers in the Harry S Truman Building are working over time to push their agenda, unfortunately for them time will do a fantastic job in debunking the nonsense put out in the western media.

Like when the actual perpetrators of the Katyn massacre was shown to be the Russians and not the Nazi's as the Russians claimed.

it will hurt more when the gullible supporters of the Junta in Kiev are proven wrong not by posters here, but by undisputed facts on the ground.

We're all far more concerned with the Russian boots on Ukrainian ground at the moment.

Shurimgreat

Fiery mutant wrote: »

The separatists say that the ceasefire will not be observed in Debaltseve, as it is 'our territory', which seeing as how they have not conquered it, is very strange.

Also the U.S. say the column seen crossing the border recently were a regular russian unit which attempted the encirclement of the town in recent days. Reuters journalists witnessed insignia-less troops in recent days, sounds more like the little green men we were introduced to last year.

The more this goes on, the more I think it's time to arm Ukraine. Putin is a crazy, and no amount of democratic appeasement is going to change him.

I just can't see the Separtists or the Russians walking away from Debaltseve. It's one of the lynchpins of the region, strategically important, a key military objective they failed to win, vital for the success of the New Russia enclave they are trying to carve out.

In other words, this truce won't last and more sanctions will probably follow down the tracks. The Russians are getting deeper and deeper into a quagmire which will eventually do to them what the Afghan war did to the old USSR, bankrupt the country.

Elmer Blooker

gandalf wrote: »

Like when the actual perpetrators of the Katyn massacre was shown to be the Russians and not the Nazi's as the Russians claimed.

Yes, a terrible crime indeed carried out by Stalin's Soviet regime.
Interesting to note that you consider the decision to transfer Crimea to Ukraine from Russia (since 1783) by the very same Soviet regime to be legitimate.

woodrow wyatt

Shurimgreat wrote: »

In other words, this truce won't last and more sanctions will probably follow down the tracks. The Russians are getting deeper and deeper into a quagmire which will eventually do to them what the Afghan war did to the old USSR, bankrupt the country.

Russia debt as % of GDP 11.17% - debt per citizen $1,651
USA debt as % of GDP 104.87% - debt per citizen $57,028

Zero chance of Russia going bankrupt, its another myth in the western media.

gandalf

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Yes, a terrible crime indeed carried out by Stalin's Soviet regime.
Interesting to note that you consider the decision to transfer Crimea to Ukraine from Russia (since 1783) by the very same Soviet regime to be legitimate.

It wasn't the very same Regime though that transfer occured in 1954 under Khrushchevs Regime not Stalins.

It is refreshing to see you admit they did do wrong though

gandalf

woodrow wyatt wrote: »

Russia debt as % of GDP 11.17% - debt per citizen $1,651
USA debt as % of GDP 104.87% - debt per citizen $57,028

Zero chance of Russia going bankrupt, its another myth in the western media.

Sources for your statistics please.

Shurimgreat

woodrow wyatt wrote: »

Russia debt as % of GDP 11.17% - debt per citizen $1,651
USA debt as % of GDP 104.87% - debt per citizen $57,028

Zero chance of Russia going bankrupt, its another myth in the western media.

Ireland had similar debt ratios to Russia pre 2008. Today its similar to the US. It just takes one big crises to make your economy go down the drain. And the slide usually becomes uncontrollable. The Russian economy is facing junk bond status, high inflation, high interest rates, significant contraction, low oil and gas prices, sanctions and much much more. Make your own mind up about its future.

woodrow wyatt

gandalf wrote: »

Sources for your statistics please.

nationaldebtclocks.org

its a nice looking site.

Shurimgreat

woodrow wyatt wrote: »

nationaldebtclocks.org

its a nice looking site.

Oh and they are also running out of reserves to prop up the currency.

woodrow wyatt

Shurimgreat wrote: »

Oh and they are also running out of reserves to prop up the currency.

source?

Elmer Blooker

gandalf wrote: »

It wasn't the very same Regime though that transfer occured in 1954 under Khrushchevs Regime not Stalins.

It is refreshing to see you admit they did do wrong though

It WAS the same regime.
There were many war crimes during WW2, some are exploited for propaganda purposes and others like this one are conveniently removed from history. It seems the Polish nation are suffering from collective amnesia!
http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2014/11/16/save-polish-people-from-ukrainian-bandera-heroes.html

Poroshenko did a little trick for the Polish supporters of Ukraine’s independence by introducing a new national holiday called: Day of Defence of Ukraine, which falls on October 14 which is the date of the creation of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army – ‘army’, which was famous for the murder of Polish civilians; children, the elderly, pregnant women and really everything that moved and even what did not.

....... and you wonder why the ethnic Russian population in eastern Ukraine totally reject this coup.

gandalf

woodrow wyatt wrote: »

source?

Shurimgreat wrote: »

Oh and they are also running out of reserves to prop up the currency.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/RUREFEG:IND

What is interesting is that they have blown $118 billion in the last year propping up the currency and banks. Whats even more interesting is that nearly €80 billion of that was wiped out since October 2014.

There are also numerous Russian banks in severe trouble who will have to be bailed out. Rosneft and other businesses are looking for hand outs and Putin has committed another $35 billion to economic stimulus programmes. Another $100 billion could be gone before the summer.