Ukraine on the brink of civil war. Mod Warning in OP.

robindch

oldozer wrote: »

If memory serves Putin and his mob were in Crimea as the Coup happened in Ukraine proper.

Memory does not serve.

There was no coup in Kiev.

Yanukovich fled when Putin, his own party and his own secret police abandoned him after he'd made an agreement with the protesters which he then refused to implement.

oldozer

robindch wrote: »

Memory does not serve.

There was no coup in Kiev.

Yanukovich fled when Putin, his own party and his own secret police abandoned him after he'd made an agreement with the protesters which he then refused to implement.

Memory serves well enough as I recall reading of Putin telling the democratically elected Yanukovich to not have his police shoot on the protesters. Someone not only shot at the protesters, but also the police which only made matters worse. Democratically elected Yanukovich then fled the country. The snipers were not expected I would think as it was a game changer. Kosovo would have been the last time I remember snipers being used indiscriminately in such a way. Which leads me to think. Who would benefit ?

Putin was aware of, and for all we know playing about in this mix. Putin did do a deal as to keeping Ukraine on his patch which could have been beneficial to Ukraine as a country. The EU, or maybe those who control it were not letting go of this prime bit of real estate too easily. Yanukovich could have given up all his gold, ill gotten gains to no avail in the end. Most of what is going on there at present is what is meant to happen anyway.

Putin's prize was and is Crimea. In all fairness to Putin he is playing a tight game. Like it or lump it he is good at this game. No significant amount of lives were lost in what Putin was playing for. If I were Ukrainian right now I would wish to hell I had done as Putin had said.

Dozer.

oldozer

Lemming wrote: »

The order was supposedly given four days after (during the aforementioned Putin meeting) Yanukovych fled upon the Ukranian parliament ruling against him. So that time frame would go against any sort of memory and any notions of the Crimean annexation being anything other than an opportunistic land-grab. Unless of course Putin already had agents in Crimea preparing to instigate insurrection which would paint Russia in an even less favourable light than it has already cast itself.

I somehow think Putin was not short of an agent or so in The Crimea. Saturated would be a better word for it if you recall how even the navy gave up their ships. If Putin were up for a land grab he would have just taken Georgia when his army just thrashed the place. That so called leader had not the brains to cover/close off the only connection to Russia. That fool who eats his tie now as a giff on this place is now in Ukraine as he is a wanted man in his own country.

Maybe it is coincidence but if memory serves that colour revolution was also funded by Soros.

robindch

oldozer wrote: »

Like it or lump it he is good at this game.

Depends on what you mean by "good". Yes, he's certainly good at stealing from weak countries while threatening them with overwhelming military force. He's also good at turning his fellow Russians into a nation of propagandized zombies. And before you say I'm going over the top here, the word the Russians themselves use to describe Putin's propaganda is 'зомбификация', zombifikatsiya. Russian has also recently seen the rise of the splendid verb 'скрымзить', s-crim(ea)-zit meaning roughly "to pull a Crimea", meaning "to steal when the owner can't protect themselves" (ie, from an open car, from the office when the boss is away, or by some corrupt official or government department).

I would disagree that this is "good" in the sense of "honest", "decent" or "strategically very wise" though.

gandalf

oldozer wrote: »

If memory serves Putin and his mob were in Crimea as the Coup happened in Ukraine proper.
Maybe he thought it just a fad like Soros/Neuland was starting and he was trying to stay in fashion.

Try not to put words where I would not ../grandeur (sp).

Dozer.

What coup, there was no coup. The Government ousted a corrupt President who had blocked a treaty with Europe because he was protecting his own interests and sponsors.

The only coups that I see sponsored was the one that led to Illegal annexation of Crimea and the one that led to the attempted cessation of some portions of Eastern Ukraine with the aid of the Russian Military.

gandalf

oldozer wrote: »

Putin's prize was and is Crimea. In all fairness to Putin he is playing a tight game. Like it or lump it he is good at this game. No significant amount of lives were lost in what Putin was playing for. If I were Ukrainian right now I would wish to hell I had done as Putin had said.

Dozer.

Putin is playing a tight game lol. He is ruining the Russian economy for his vainity project of raising a Zombie USSR back from the dead.

Over 6000 people have died because of this vanity project, I'd count that as significant unless you are comparing it against the slaughter that Stalin oversaw. Not to mention the number of Russians now struggling to buy food and facing down unemployment as a large number of businesses try to stay alive in the new restricted Russia servicing Vladimirs Putins ego.

robindch

gandalf wrote: »

The only coups that I see sponsored was the one that led to Illegal annexation of Crimea and the one that led to the attempted cessation of some portions of Eastern Ukraine with the aid of the Russian Military.

That coup was described in this video by one of the guys who lead it - jump to 0:30 for the tl;dr version;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWw15dIrhHQ

robindch

Putin has given Ramzan Kadyrov an "Order of Honour" medal yesterday, one day after Kadyrov hailed Nemtsov's alleged murderer as a "patriot of Russia". Putin also awarded a medal for "Services to the Fatherland" to Andrei Lugovoi, the chief suspect in the radioactive poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/vladimir-putin/11459595/Putin-gives-state-medal-to-Chechnya-leader-who-praised-Nemtsov-suspect.html

oldozer

robindch wrote: »

Depends on what you mean by "good". Yes, he's certainly good at stealing from weak countries while threatening them with overwhelming military force. He's also good at turning his fellow Russians into a nation of propagandized zombies. And before you say I'm going over the top here, the word the Russians themselves use to describe Putin's propaganda is 'зомбификация', zombifikatsiya. Russian has also recently seen the rise of the splendid verb 'скрымзить', s-crim(ea)-zit meaning roughly "to pull a Crimea", meaning "to steal when the owner can't protect themselves" (ie, from an open car, from the office when the boss is away, or by some corrupt official or government department).

I would disagree that this is "good" in the sense of "honest", "decent" or "strategically very wise" though.

In the grand idea of the way the world is I would regard Putin as good at the game we seem to be playing as to what we as a society allow our leaders to get away with. He as as I say in Georgia and could have kept most of what his army had taken. The people of Georgia were more or less dependent on Russia as a hinterland so there was no great reason for Putin to try to keep that place. The US were content to send their aid ships to there to hold their corner of that conflict. That arrangement still stands as it seems to suit those who play this game for now.

I did try to learn Russian some time ago and would be able to read it somewhat. Not because I would be a lover of Putin, but more because I liked the language, not to mention some reading of the old ways of Russia before it was destroyed by some "ism". We do also have some sayings in our own way as to daily life. Things falling off trucks, and the like. One new one as to Obama's dilemma would be Crimea-river as Putin flips Obama the bird.

Stealing countries now would be a honed gift of the West though if we look to Afganastan, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Palestine, in fact you could throw in any old name where people of dark skin seem to have the cheek to be born living on Western resources. In face if memory serves apart from our old Celts we Irish are the only European country who never colonized other countries other than by slavery/emigration.

Propaganda now is something we here seem to have been good at though. We could may well teach Putin a thing or two there. Nigh a 100 year of politicians telling us as to how each new party are going to fix things. (Aye "fix" things). Ten years of debate as to Tribunals with only one politician in Gaol for contempt of court. I should be forgiven for using the word good in my thought as to how we are being played as a peoples. Good, honest, decent, those are words of common folk looking for leaders in a world barren of such a gem. "Strategical", that now would be more a word of those who will control the herd.

As a by the way.............I read now this morning as to how Putin is supposed to be the richest man on earth. On a par almost with the Queen of England.........Well almost.

How does one person gain such an accolade I wonder ?

Regards, Dozer.

oldozer

For those who tweet...

Any truth of an attack about to happen on Mariupol ?

And this .........Moscow Times. Cossacks rounding up those who are of age for war. Not able to post link.

Dozer.

BoJack Horseman

oldozer wrote: »

Any truth of an attack about to happen on Mariupol ?

Mariupol & its outlying towns have been under attack for months.

With the Deblatasve pocket crushed & things quieter to the north, the conquest of Mariupol is the next stage for Russian conquest.

oldozer

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Mariupol & its outlying towns have been under attack for months.

With the Deblatasve pocket crushed & things quieter to the north, the conquest of Mariupol is the next stage for Russian conquest.

I was just reading tweets and the like as to some Thousands of soldiers being active about Mariupol. A sea invasion had crossed my mind some time ago. Even wondered as to The Crimea Navy and why it has not been used.

Putin has to take control of Mariupol. Even talks of him basing his nukes in Crimea, but then they are most likely there already.

Dozer.

BoJack Horseman

oldozer wrote: »

I was just reading tweets and the like as to some Thousands of soldiers being active about Mariupol. A sea invasion had crossed my mind some time ago. Even wondered as to The Crimea Navy and why it has not been used

Keeping things to a land war allows a shred of deniability to the deluded Putinistas.

The use of Naval/Air assets are too overtly obvious, so have remained idle in the war.

oldozer

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Keeping things to a land war allows a shred of deniability to the deluded Putinistas.

The use of Naval/Air assets are too overtly obvious, so have remained idle in the war.

I wondered as to why the Ukraine "side" have not been so keen to use their navy to any great extent. Their air force it seems are compromised by the rebels as they are not being used since Putin gave the rebels a counter measure to air attack. The only Ukraine vessels which have been sunk seemed to be just "fishing" vessels.

The ability to deny seems to be a subject the players in this theater are all good at. I couldn't help but think as someone downed that Malaysian plane. Both sides were quick to deny. Our Western governments made it a matter of national security as to their side. The rebels had the black boxes which they never seemed to bother to tell us about. Did anyone happen to notice as we remembered those who died in the 14 war with pomp and Poppy about that time ? Given another 100 years would we remember the Sunflowers where those people of all nations died by wearing Sunflowers and Poppies ?

Far too many complications in this conflict which seems to be playing out like a game. Ukraine men trying to avoid being drafted just as are the Russians. I would like to think people in all places are fed to hell up of those wars for bankers/military industry. Not really a 9 to 5 sort of thing as clocking out after the days work seems a bit hazardous.

This oldozer has worked in all sort of industry. Nice to tell the man to do it himself when we have a choice to walk away.

Dozer.

robindch

Putin hasn't been seen for a week in public and - a credit to his suffocating "l'Etat c'est moi" policy - the internet is abuzz with a lively range of rumors about why this might be so.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31849925
http://www.interpretermag.com/russia-update-march-12-2015/#7436
http://app.debka.com/n/newsupdate/10758/

Can't help but wonder if some of Putin's friends found one of those palaces which Putin said didn't exist in Russia.

oldozer

Putin also replaced Yeltsin because of the disastrous state of the Russian economy. Though Russia had always been poor, there was a pervasive sense that it been a force to be reckoned with in international affairs. Under Yeltsin, however, Russia had become even poorer and was now held in contempt in international affairs. Putin had to deal with both issues. He took a long time before moving to recreate Russian power, though he said early on that the fall of the Soviet Union had been the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20th century. This did not mean he wanted to resurrect the Soviet Union in its failed form, but rather that he wanted Russian power to be taken seriously again, and he wanted to protect and enhance Russian national interests.

The breaking point came in Ukraine during the Orange Revolution of 2004. Yanukovich was elected president that year under dubious circumstances, but demonstrators forced him to submit to a second election. He lost, and a pro-Western government took office. At that time, Putin accused the CIA and other Western intelligence agencies of having organized the demonstrations. Fairly publicly, this was the point when Putin became convinced that the West intended to destroy the Russian Federation, sending it the way of the Soviet Union. For him, Ukraine's importance to Russia was self-evident. He therefore believed that the CIA organized the demonstration to put Russia in a dangerous position, and that the only reason for this was the overarching desire to cripple or destroy Russia. Following the Kosovo affair, Putin publicly moved from suspicion to hostility to the West.

The Russians worked from 2004 to 2010 to undo the Orange Revolution. They worked to rebuild the Russian military, focus their intelligence apparatus and use whatever economic influence they had to reshape their relationship with Ukraine. If they couldn't control Ukraine, they did not want it to be controlled by the United States and Europe. This was, of course, not their only international interest, but it was the pivotal one.

Russia's invasion of Georgia had more to do with Ukraine than it had to do with the Caucasus. At the time, the United States was still bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan. While Washington had no formal obligation to Georgia, there were close ties and implicit guarantees. The invasion of Georgia was designed to do two things. The first was to show the region that the Russian military, which had been in shambles in 2000, was able to act decisively in 2008. The second was to demonstrate to the region, and particularly to Kiev, that American guarantees, explicit or implicit, had no value. In 2010, Yanukovich was elected president of Ukraine, reversing the Orange Revolution and limiting Western influence in the country.


From Stratfor by George Friedman.

Dozer.

Lockstep

Oldozer, this isn't a blog or a quotedump. Standards of debate are expected. Posting a quote without any context or argument isn't an acceptable standard.

Gatling

What if putin dies,
If the rumours of a stroke is true is there a ready made strong man to step into his throne

oldozer

Lockstep wrote: »

Oldozer, this isn't a blog or a quotedump. Standards of debate are expected. Posting a quote without any context or argument isn't an acceptable standard.

Not meant as a quote dump. I am unable to post links on here as of yet. The piece I posted was relevant to my opinion as to Ukraine I thought. Georgia being mentioned in the piece by a well renowned writer I thought worth the mention.

Point taken as to context or argument. I posted quote with link to author. Inquiring minds ?

Regards, Dozer.

oldozer

Gatling wrote: »

What if putin dies

The world is in enough trouble as it is without him leaving. I had thought he would be bumped long since.
There are a few generals who would have played this game a whole other way. Putin for all his ills is keeping a lid on it I hope. In a world bereft of leaders it seems an awful pity to be placing bets on a bad one.

Dozer.

Lemming

oldozer wrote: »

The world is in enough trouble as it is without him leaving. I had thought he would be bumped long since.
There are a few generals who would have played this game a whole other way. Putin for all his ills is keeping a lid on it I hope. In a world bereft of leaders it seems an awful pity to be placing bets on a bad one.

Dozer.

I'm not so sure regards Putin keeping a lid on things. More he's stoking it whilst topping it off until he wants to.

Short term should Putin die, I think that if certain elements of the Russian state apparatus (to include the media here; lets not pretend otherwise) take notions into their head to start believing him to have been assassinated, the world will be in a very dangerous place unless whomever is in control is able to contain the hubris that Putin has built around himself, and whatever popular pressure comes from it, to mount a military mis-adventure.

Long term though, I think a lot of Putin's control would be undone by liberalisation of Russian society; economic tidings not withstanding of course.

Lockstep

oldozer wrote: »

Not meant as a quote dump. I am unable to post links on here as of yet. The piece I posted was relevant to my opinion as to Ukraine I thought. Georgia being mentioned in the piece by a well renowned writer I thought worth the mention.

Point taken as to context or argument. I posted quote with link to author. Inquiring minds ?

Regards, Dozer.

Citing authors is fine and encouraged. However, dumping long quotes is not. Construct your own argument and refer to Friedman if you want but please don't copy and paste stuff like this again.
Also, I know you're new but debating moderation in thread isn't allowed. I kindly suggest you read the Forum Charter

WakeUp

oldozer wrote: »

For those who tweet...

Any truth of an attack about to happen on Mariupol ?

And this .........Moscow Times. Cossacks rounding up those who are of age for war. Not able to post link.

Dozer.

If that does transpire at some stage in the future its going to be a brutal battle. whatever about their ideology the defenders of Mariupol some of them at least will be if nothing else "committed".

Ukraine crisis: Inside the Mariupol base of the controversial Azov battalion

The first thing you notice as you walk through the corridors of the Azov battalion's base in Mariupol are the swastikas.

There are many — painted on doors, adorning the walls and chalked onto the blackboards of this former school, now temporary headquarters for the Azov troops.

It is a confronting sight and when I query the young soldier assigned to show me around he is quick to correct me, pointing out that the symbol is in fact a "modified swastika" — more like the letter N crossed with a straight line.

When I point to another symbol of the Third Reich etched on the wall, that of Hitler's "SS", he simply shrugs and says: "We are nationalists, but we are not Nazis."

The Azov battalion is a highly controversial Ukrainian paramilitary group that has drawn much criticism for its links to the far right.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-13/inside-the-mariupol-base-of-ukraines-azov-battalion/6306242?

Gatling

Don't worry there only Ukrainians defending there country against foreign russian forces .

Left , right, center , and anything in between at the end of the day we might not like it ,

But there defending there country

WakeUp

yep, proper salt of the earth nazis so they are great bunch of lads really.

Gatling

WakeUp wrote: »

yep, proper salt of the earth nazis so they are great bunch of lads really.

Don't hear a bad word about them pesky russian forces currently on Ukrainian soil and Killing Ukrainian troops and civilians .

Why

gandalf

WakeUp wrote: »

yep, proper salt of the earth nazis so they are great bunch of lads really.

When a foreign country influences and then invades it creates an atmosphere where extreme organisations flourish. Also remember there are Neo Nazis and Russian Nationalists fighting on the Russia side as well.

By acting like they are the Russians are giving an organisation that was representative of a very small minority a platform and an environment to increase their influence and numbers :rolleyes:

WakeUp

Gatling wrote: »

Don't hear a bad word about them pesky russian forces currently on Ukrainian soil and Killing Ukrainian troops and civilians .

Why

Russia annexed Crimea which I do not agree with. and is currently involved in the murder and mayhem taking place in Ukraine. from day one I have acknowledged this as fact and not once denied it. but you continue to perform tricks to help justify the Ukrainian nazi battalions in your own mind if that makes you feel better. because they are wholesome good nazis. and that little stunt you pulled over in after hours making up a quote on my behalf and putting my name to it was bad form. it was pathetic. Ill let that go once. dont ever do that again.

WakeUp

gandalf wrote: »

When a foreign country influences and then invades it creates an atmosphere where extreme organisations flourish. Also remember there are Neo Nazis and Russian Nationalists fighting on the Russia side as well.

By acting like they are the Russians are giving an organisation that was representative of a very small minority a platform and an environment to increase their influence and numbers :rolleyes:

nazis are scumbags. doesnt matter where they come from. but if you want try make excuses for them too Gandalf even though I dont believe you are like that then be my guest.

gandalf

WakeUp wrote: »

nazis are scumbags. doesnt matter where they come from. but if you want try make excuses for them too Gandalf even though I dont believe you are like that then be my guest.

I don't like Nazi's either Wakeup and I am certainly am not making excuses for them as you put it but I am not buying the Russian Propaganda that a couple of militias represent the whole of the Ukraine. It certainly is NOT a reason for Russia to invade, dismember and de-stabilise the Ukraine.

Straight question WakeUp do you believe the Russia actions against the Ukraine are justified?

Why do you seem to be making excuses for the Russians meddling in another countries business like the Nazis did in 1938/9?