Ukraine on the brink of civil war. Mod Warning in OP.

gandalf

Sobko wrote: »

Buffer zone from NATO and a message to Kiev to reject NATO and US advances. Also to protect their naval bases. They also believe it's part of Russia and should never have been gifted to Ukraine.

But they told us it was to protect the Russian Minorities, that fascists were in charge in Kiev. With that in mind then the articles that I have quoted are extremely relevant in exposing the absolute hypocrasy at the heart of the whole Russian misadventure.

BTW as I have stated numerous times, NATO is not the problem for the Putin regime. Having the big bad wolf NATO at the door suits Putin's control of the Russian population, just like the American regime having "terrorists" is controlling the US population. The real danger for Russia is economic and it is in the form of the EU. If Ukraine joins the EU then Russia is in real trouble and totally isolated in Europe. Then the Russian Proles will see their former satellite state becoming a better place to live than the motherland and that will create a lot of awkward questions for the powers that be.

Sobko

Ukraine is far too corrupt to join the EU. Although some of our politicians would certainly do well over there. I don't believe Putin even thinks that's even a possibility.

I don't agree with your assessment on NATO. It's an outdated organisation living in the past much like Putin. Looking to be relevant on the world stage. NATO is a possibility for Ukraine but not while the country is destabilised. I'm sure Neutralising Russia's nuclear weapons is seen as a direct threat and one Putin can easily make to his people. Much like Israel is making noise about Iran.

gandalf

Sobko wrote: »

Ukraine is far too corrupt to join the EU. Although some of our politicians would certainly do well over there. I don't believe Putin even thinks that's even a possibility.

I disagree totally with you. This is the whole trigger to this situation. Not fantasy Nazi's in Kiev, not the Russian minorities and certainly not the Ukraine joining NATO.

I don't agree with your assessment on NATO. It's an outdated organisation living in the past much like Putin. Looking to be relevant on the world stage.

NATO was slowly dying with a number of its members paring their military spending below the bare minimums required in the last few years. If Putin was the wonderful strategist and chess player we had all been led to believe he was and his end goal was the removal of NATO then all he had to do was play the long game and it would have fossilised itself. Instead he now has revitalised the whole organisation and made it relevant again. That's what he and the ruling elite in Russia want. They know the population is far more malleable if they have an enemy to "fear".

NATO is a possibility for Ukraine but not while the country is destabilised. I'm sure Neutralising Russia's nuclear weapons is seen as a direct threat and one Putin can easily make to his people. Much like Israel is making noise about Iran.

Well if NATO wasn't an option for the Ukraine it is now that the Russians has sliced portions of their country away at will.

Sobko

gandalf wrote: »

I disagree totally with you. This is the whole trigger to this situation. Not fantasy Nazi's in Kiev, not the Russian minorities and certainly not the Ukraine joining NATO.

So Ukraine is not totally corrupt and would walk into the EU? Greece looks straight when compared to Ukraine. Where have I mentioned Nazis. The problem in Ukraine is not right wing nutters of which there are plenty. It's the corrupt politicians who rob their own people.

NATO was slowly dying with a number of its members paring their military spending below the bare minimums required in the last few years. If Putin was the wonderful strategist and chess player we had all been led to believe he was and his end goal was the removal of NATO then all he had to do was play the long game and it would have fossilised itself. Instead he now has revitalised the whole organisation and made it relevant again. That's what he and the ruling elite in Russia want. They know the population is far more malleable if they have an enemy to "fear".

He probably believes he is playing the long game buy having Ukraine in crisis. A country in crisis cannot join NATO.

Well if NATO wasn't an option for the Ukraine it is now that the Russians has sliced portions of their country away at will.

See above.

WakeUp

gandalf wrote: »

I disagree totally with you. This is the whole trigger to this situation. Not fantasy Nazi's in Kiev, not the Russian minorities and certainly not the Ukraine joining NATO.

there is no fantasy involved here its a documented fact. there be Ukrainian nazis and Russian nazis but to claim that its "fantasy" or there are no nazi battalions fighting under instructions from Kiev is plain as day false. completely detached from reality.

Leader Of Ukraine's Neo-Nazis Appointed As Advisor To Army

With Greece on the verge of either getting kicked out of Europe or suffer through yet another government overhaul, one which many suggest may usher the "last" option for Greece, the ultra nationalist, neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party into governance, some wonder if it is not Europe's ulterior intention to force a populist shift toward right wing, nationalist parties (perhaps best observed in France where Marine le Pen's dramatic rise to power has left many dazed and confused) one which will lead to social instability and shortly thereafter, war (because in a world in which every Keynesian voodoo trick to revive the economy has failed, war is the last remaining outcome).

So while we await to see if Europe's turn to ultra right wing movements accelerates in the coming months, we just learned of a very disturbing development in just as insolvent Ukraine, where moments ago the website of the local Ministry of Defense reported that Dmytro Yarosh, whose political ideology has been described as nationalist, ultranationalist, neofascist, right-wing, or far right, was just appointed as Advisor to Chief of General Staff.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-05/leader-ukraines-ultranationalist-right-sector-appointed-army-advisor

hurry up and arm Ukraine because thats going to end well. now that a nazi has risen to such a high level and will be "advising" the Ukrainian army.

Dmytro Yarosh appointed as Advisor to Chief of General Staff

Dmytro Yarosh, leader of ‘Pravyi Sector’ (Right Sector) political party, appointed as Advisor to Chief of General Staff. Yesterday, Colonel General Viktor Muzhenko, Chief of General Staff, and Dmytro Yarosh agreed the format of cooperation between ‘Pravyi Sector’ and the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Muzhenko stressed the Ukrainian army had become one of the strongest armies of Europe; the Ukrainian soldiers proved they knew how to fight and appreciated the contribution of volunteer battalions to defense of Ukraine and said: “We understand the needs of changes and increase of efficiency at all the army levels. We also consider various models of formation of the army reserve. We are developing the reforms and will implement them. We gathered all the patriots and defenders of Ukraine under single leadership. The enemy understands our unity and that its attempts end in failure. We have one goal and the united Ukraine. The Army becomes stronger each week”.

Dmytro Yarosh underlined the unity was the key precondition for further successful fighting and demonstrated the readiness to establish the cooperation and integration of volunteer battalions to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

‘Pravyi Sector’ is ready to be subordinated to military leaders in issues related to defense of state from the external enemy.

oh dear.

http://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2015/04/05/dmytro-yarosh-appointed-as-advisor-to-chief-of-general-staff/

Gatling

WakeUp wrote: »

there is no fantasy involved here its a documented fact. there be Ukrainian nazis and Russian nazis but to claim that its "fantasy" or there are no nazi battalions fighting under instructions from Kiev is plain as day false. completely detached from reality.



http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-05/leader-ukraines-ultranationalist-right-sector-appointed-army-advisor

hurry up and arm Ukraine because thats going to end well. now that a nazi has risen to such a high level and will be "advising" the Ukrainian army.




oh dear.

http://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2015/04/05/dmytro-yarosh-appointed-as-advisor-to-chief-of-general-staff/

Its all old news you keep on and on about right wing groups and neo Nazis its the same stuff repeatedly ,
Nobody on here disagreed with you on it ,
I and I'd say many posters on here don't like it ,
But again there Ukrainian men and women defending there country from Russian aggressors
.for crying out loud the Russian army has been in eastern Ukraine for about 12 months

WakeUp

Gatling wrote: »

Its all old news you keep on and on about right wing groups and neo Nazis its the same stuff repeatedly ,
Nobody on here disagreed with you on it ,
I and I'd say many posters on here don't like it ,
But again there Ukrainian men and women defending there country from Russian aggressors
.for crying out loud the Russian army has been in eastern Ukraine for about 12 months

eh, that isnt old news its only recently been announced. so how is this particular development old news. I dont keep on and on about it like you are suggesting people like yourself I would posit dont like the nazi factor , sry hero nazis defending their country, being pointed out to them. this particular nazi is now advising the Ukrainian army and their operations are now going to be coordinated with the right sector and nazi battalions. I really didnt think Kiev could be any dumber in their actions. and then they went and did this.

Gatling

WakeUp wrote: »

eh, that isnt old news its only recently been announced. so how is this particular development old news. I dont keep on and on about it like you are suggesting people like yourself I would posit dont like the nazi factor , sry hero nazis defending their country, being pointed out to them. this particular nazi is now advising the Ukrainian army and their operations are now going to be coordinated with the right sector and nazi battalions. I really didnt think Kiev could be any dumber in their actions. and then they went and did this.

Advisor to Chief of General Staff not to advisor of the ukrainian army and the right wing groups are been bought in to the full time forces rather than having an army and multiple voulenteer battalions .
Now we will have one cohesive military under one leadership .

That make operational sense for any armed forces

Crann na Beatha

This post has been deleted.

Playboy

Phoenix wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C66mAkS1ZfM

Interesting documentary what do the pro-putin posters think of it?

I'm a bit confused.. People in the last couple of pages repeatedly are referring to Pro Putin posters but I haven't seen anything posted in quite a while that could be deemed pro Putin. Being anti-war and acknowledging that the West has played a critical role in escalating this crisis isn't being pro Putin. It is not difficult to acknowledge that Putin is a pretty unsavoury character and the world would be better off without him in power.

Crann na Beatha

This post has been deleted.

K-9

Phoenix wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C66mAkS1ZfM

Interesting documentary what do the pro-putin posters think of it?

Mod:

Please provide a summary and/or opinion on the video please as specified in the charter. Thank you.

Crann na Beatha

This post has been deleted.

Sobko

Phoenix wrote: »

I would not class them as pro-Russian as ordinary Russians are suffering under Putins totalitarian regime,families unable to grieve for sons sent to die in Ukraine.

Where in the last couple of pages have people defended Putins actions? This statement of yours is wrong.

robindch

WakeUp wrote: »

Robin Im curious as to what your position is with regard to Crimea?? I think Ive asked you a couple of times but you are yet to give me an answer... do you believe Ukraine should forcibly attempt to take Crimea back from the Russians with or without western involvement? what is your position on Crimea?

I've documented my position on Crimea many times, at length and in great detail in this thread and elsewhere, originally over a year ago here.

The annexation of Crimea, together with the Russian invasion of East Ukraine, were international crimes for which I trust, against hope, that Putin and relevant members of his lunatic administration will stand trial at the International Criminal Court.

To restore any degree of credibility to the murderous conduct of its disgraceful foreign policy, this Russian government, or a subsequent one, should remove Russian troops, hardware and logistical support from East Ukraine and return Crimea to Ukrainian administration. While a Ukrainian invasion of Crimea might, just about, be politically justifiable within Ukraine, it would be militarily crazy and the chances of a successful outcome are close to zero. And the West would be ill-advised to supply military hardware or troops, assuming that any Western leaders had the cojones to do so, which none do.

robindch

Perhaps relevant to the thread given that Russia announced recently that they're prepared to threaten the use of nuclear weapons over Crimea and elsewhere...

Anyhow, today, somebody set one of their nuclear subs on fire in Severodvinsk, presumably by mistake. The burning submarine is apparently the same class as the Kursk. The Russian Navy has stated that the sub has no nuclear missiles on board and the nuclear reactor has been shut down. So back to your cappucino I suppose, folks.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/07/us-russia-submarine-idUSKBN0MY14O20150407
http://rt.com/news/247493-nuclear-submarine-fire-russia/
http://kuleshovoleg.livejournal.com/370134.html
http://flashnord.com/news/v-severodvinske-gorit-podvodnaya-lodka

robindch

Interesting report by the BBC - a reporter tries to discover the truth about recent Russian media reports concerning the death of a young girl:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32137302

Gatling

robindch wrote: »

Interesting report by the BBC - a reporter tries to discover the truth about recent Russian media reports concerning the death of a young girl:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32137302

Reminds me of the whole Nadia Savchenko upcoming show trial .
Nadia Savchenko is a ukrainian military pilot who was fighting in east ukraine where she was captured by rebels or russian forces .
And then transfered to a prison in russia to face trial for the deaths of 2 russian journlists killed in a motar strike in ukraine

Morpheus

arrested for fighting in her own country... FML ...

InTheTrees

robindch wrote: »

Anyhow, today, somebody set one of their nuclear subs on fire in Severodvinsk, presumably by mistake.

They probably tried to start it up.

:rolleyes:

WakeUp

robindch wrote: »

I've documented my position on Crimea many times, at length and in great detail in this thread and elsewhere, originally over a year ago here.

The annexation of Crimea, together with the Russian invasion of East Ukraine, were international crimes for which I trust, against hope, that Putin and relevant members of his lunatic administration will stand trial at the International Criminal Court.

To restore any degree of credibility to the murderous conduct of its disgraceful foreign policy, this Russian government, or a subsequent one, should remove Russian troops, hardware and logistical support from East Ukraine and return Crimea to Ukrainian administration. While a Ukrainian invasion of Crimea might, just about, be politically justifiable within Ukraine, it would be militarily crazy and the chances of a successful outcome are close to zero. And the West would be ill-advised to supply military hardware or troops, assuming that any Western leaders had the cojones to do so, which none do.

thanks for that reply. even though Ive been more than lets say harsh on the Ukrainian leadership I do actually understand and feel bad for the ordinary Ukrainian people who just want to be and find themselves caught up in this. Putin annexed Crimea of that there is no doubt but from the outside looking in I have to and do question the wisdom and strategy of the leaders in Kiev and their ability to steer Ukraine, a relatively young country, on the required course. statecraft at the best of times is a difficult business factor in being stuck between two great powers and internally people looking one way or the other its nigh on impossible unless you chart a course somewhere down the middle. youre finding that out the hardway Ukraine is a pawn in a much bigger game. Ukraine needs pragmatists but has the opposite, idealists and that wont work. Crimea is gone forever it wont be going back there is no military solution to this. either Ukraine taking the fight the Russia or the west arming Ukraine thats only going to have one outcome. from what I can see Ukraine now only has one move though whatever happens from now on in the country will go down in infamy. when historians tell the tale of the American empire Ukraine will be the place that the supposed sole superpower on the planet was checkmated resulting in a monumental turning point in geopolitical/military power. from unipolar to multipolar. assuming the Americans can come to terms with this and dont go for broke and get us all dead. Ukraine needs to try talk and think their way out of this. its your only move.

TerrorFirmer

WakeUp wrote: »

when historians tell the tale of the American empire Ukraine will be the place that the supposed sole superpower on the planet was checkmated resulting in a monumental turning point in geopolitical/military power. from unipolar to multipolar.

The idea that Russia could ever project itself as a military power on-par with the United States is beyond laughable.

They would have to increase their military spending by about 600% a year, not to mention spend literally trillions of dollars in 'catchup' investment.

When is this 'turning point' going to happen exactly?

robindch

WakeUp wrote: »

[...] when historians tell the tale of the American empire Ukraine will be the place that the supposed sole superpower on the planet was checkmated resulting in a monumental turning point in geopolitical/military power [...]

The USA has not been checkmated, it simply hasn't bothered intervening non-trivially against a regional power, albeit one with nuclear weapons, global ambitions and a seemingly insane leader. Jinogism aside, Russia's military power is significantly less than that of the USA and Russia knows this quite well.

In years to come - and assuming Putin's land grab doesn't legitimize similar future landgrabs by other nutters, likely precipitating war - I suspect that historians are much more likely to be discussing this period as signalling the start of major Chinese involvement in Russia. The Chinese, after all, being the only country who's doing well out of the hideous mess which Putin has created to satisfy his short-term political goals.

While the Russians, particularly those still living in the Cold War, might find it politically convenient to blame the USA for all their troubles just now, the country is likely to find China significantly less accommodating than the USA in the long run.

WakeUp

TerrorFirmer wrote: »

The idea that Russia could ever project itself as a military power on-par with the United States is beyond laughable.

They would have to increase their military spending by about 600% a year, not to mention spend literally trillions of dollars in 'catchup' investment.

When is this 'turning point' going to happen exactly?

the turning point has already happened vis a vis europe/eurasia unless you believe the Russians are going to back down, they wont. and Europe wants war or is prepared to take Russia on at the behest of the Americans. who said anything about Russia projecting themselves militarily. they dont need to do that. thats how the Americans roll and dominate Europe for example. this idea that the Americans are going to be the predominant hegemon forever or that we still operate in a unipolar system that is whats laughable not to mention dangerous the height of arrogance - exceptional even. because all empires one way or another come to an end, the only question is what way will the demise play out. take a look around at whats going on Germany and France ( EU ) have decided they want nothing to do with arming Ukraine or a potential showdown with Russia. where as the Americans say arming them is still on the table. the two positions couldnt be further apart. I dont believe Europe wants a war with Russia or is prepared to go down that road and if the Americans keep pushing this I think it will be the end of Nato it would have to be. If the Americans continue their attempts to go after Russia eventually we ( EU) will have to kick them out/take a stand against them for being off the wall crazy phuckers. which will eventually lead to the end of US dominance over Europe. behind the scenes and obviously off the record it wouldnt surprise me if certain European leaders were indeed discussing this or making plans for its possible eventuality. it would be the prudent thing to do. the stakes are high for all concerned.

WakeUp

robindch wrote: »

The USA has not been checkmated, it simply hasn't bothered intervening non-trivially against a regional power, albeit one with nuclear weapons, global ambitions and a seemingly insane leader. Jinogism aside, Russia's military power is significantly less than that of the USA and Russia knows this quite well.

In years to come - and assuming Putin's land grab doesn't legitimize similar future landgrabs by other nutters, likely precipitating war - I suspect that historians are much more likely to be discussing this period as signalling the start of major Chinese involvement in Russia. The Chinese, after all, being the only country who's doing well out of the hideous mess which Putin has created to satisfy his short-term political goals.

While the Russians, particularly those still living in the Cold War, might find it politically convenient to blame the USA for all their troubles just now, the country is likely to find China significantly less accommodating than the USA in the long run.

China and Russia are doing all sorts of things together. they will never have any outright beef between each other, and thats if it even manifests, until the perceived dominant hegemon is out of the way thats how it works. the Americans have made a play for Ukraine and they have been checked clear as day. same thing happened to a lesser extent in Syria. all empires eventually come to an end. the question is when and how.

robindch

WakeUp wrote: »

China and Russia are doing all sorts of things together. they will never have any outright beef between each other [...]

Both countries are nuclear-armed, so it's unlikely there will be any significant war between the two.

I did imply, though, that China is now able to influence significant segments of Russian domestic and international policy - the recent €300b gas deal, probably below-cost, from which the Chinese are making out like thieves from Russia's new-found weakness on the international stage, being a good example.

Yes, Russia has found a new friend to shore up its lack of friends elsewhere, but China's in it only for China's sake and Russia, perhaps even knowing this, should really try to choose its friends a little more carefully.

InTheTrees

WakeUp wrote: »

China and Russia are doing all sorts of things together. they will never have any outright beef between each other, .

They were on the point of war for thirty years. Until China started opening up after the end of the cultural revolution. And now China is far more pacific rim oriented than cosying up to Russia. but I'm no expert.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_split

AbusesToilets

WakeUp wrote: »

China and Russia are doing all sorts of things together. they will never have any outright beef between each other, and thats if it even manifests, until the perceived dominant hegemon is out of the way thats how it works. the Americans have made a play for Ukraine and they have been checked clear as day. same thing happened to a lesser extent in Syria. all empires eventually come to an end. the question is when and how.

Russia's "success" at the US's expense in the Ukraine has put their economy on the brink of collapse and likely caused the re-invigoration of Europe's commitment to a unified defensive stance in opposition to Russia.

Seems to me that in either scenario, long term the US comes out better than Russia. Ukraine turns to the west and integrates further with Europe, or Russia finds itself isolated internationally with a failing economy.

IrishTrajan

WakeUp wrote: »

the turning point has already happened vis a vis europe/eurasia unless you believe the Russians are going to back down, they wont. and Europe wants war or is prepared to take Russia on at the behest of the Americans. who said anything about Russia projecting themselves militarily. they dont need to do that. thats how the Americans roll and dominate Europe for example. this idea that the Americans are going to be the predominant hegemon forever or that we still operate in a unipolar system that is whats laughable not to mention dangerous the height of arrogance - exceptional even. because all empires one way or another come to an end, the only question is what way will the demise play out. take a look around at whats going on Germany and France ( EU ) have decided they want nothing to do with arming Ukraine or a potential showdown with Russia. where as the Americans say arming them is still on the table. the two positions couldnt be further apart. I dont believe Europe wants a war with Russia or is prepared to go down that road and if the Americans keep pushing this I think it will be the end of Nato it would have to be. If the Americans continue their attempts to go after Russia eventually we ( EU) will have to kick them out/take a stand against them for being off the wall crazy phuckers. which will eventually lead to the end of US dominance over Europe. behind the scenes and obviously off the record it wouldnt surprise me if certain European leaders were indeed discussing this or making plans for its possible eventuality. it would be the prudent thing to do. the stakes are high for all concerned.

How in the hell does Europe want war? If the EU wanted war, they'd let the Polish send in a couple tank divisions to join the Ukrainians and let the French and British carry out amphibious assaults on Crimea. If they wanted war, they'd let the Polish smash the Russians at Kaliningrad. They'd let the Scandinavians burn St. Petersburg to the ground. You are insane if you think that Europe wants a war with the State who have the most nuclear weapons in the world, and a doctrine that dictates they use them.

"We (EU) will kick them out", oh, really? Did you know that the European countries have actually sided with the US more often as part of the EU, than before it? You are assuming a zero-sum game where both sides want all the power. That isn't true. The European Union and the United States complement each other rather than oppose.

Why on earth would the EU choose Russia and China over the US? Why on earth would the EU choose two regimes with deplorable human rights issues and even bloodier histories than the US? Why on earth would the EU choose to alienate its largest partner and ally, in favour of two lesser powers who even together wouldn't match the US in economic or military size? Why on earth would the EU, who has been the historic counterweight to the USSR, choose the Russians over the Americans?

They wouldn't, and they won't. I'd rather the US hegemony than Chinese or Russian, because in the West we're allowed to criticize the Government's actions. We're allowed to voice our concern over the governance of our nations. We're allowed to protest, and to have our voice heard. The EU will not turn on the US, to believe otherwise is a fairy tale for the anti-Westerners to stroke themselves off to.

Morpheus

Russia had better hope that the EU never gets its EU army up and running... thats all ill say, the amount of economic and combined military power in our bloc is infinitesimally more than Russia could hope to bring to bear.