Ukraine on the brink of civil war. Mod Warning in OP.

Sand

Eggy Baby! wrote: »

In short, the Russian army is nothing near the Soviet army. Russia has half of the USSR's manpower and something like a quarter of it's economy. It's a great power, like the UK or France, but against NATO it hasn't a prospect. But the posters on here trying to suggest that Russia is a third rate military power are, as karma said, a bunch of Walter Mitty's.

Walter Mittys tend to claim or imagine they are something that they are not. Claiming that Russia is a superpower in the military sense is more of a topic for the Walter Mitty forum than pointing out that they are not. Even you come to the same conclusion in long, drawn out fashion.

bobcoffee

so the last 2 pages...
once again, it is not only OK but NATO should attack Russia and start a war.
But if Russia move its forces into Crimea and not slaughter anyone, use the forces already stationed there while backed up by local groups, to "protect" its own interest for Russia.
That it is a crime against humanity, deserves war crimes against Putin and movement of troops is a must.

romanticizing about WAR is not a good thing at all, which there is lots of proof around the world and in our history books.
But some people still believe that it is Putins Media that is the only one pushing ideas around... priceless.

Ignoring people's right to live is ok as long as your on the correct side (western world).

I have spent the last few days "defending Putin" the poxy nazi scum, because of the absolute idiocy of some who seem to forget things quite quickly and reminding them of their flaws puts Putin in the better light.

All countries should be held accountable for their actions but it seems that this alone is too much for some to handle.

Still something those "pushing for war" seems to ignore that the corrupt government that those protesters where protesting against are still in place. But now have the full support of EU and US including military AID. Which is a huge problem
But I'm sure that is off topic too.

K-9

bobcoffee wrote: »

actually Sand it is not impressive at all, actually for "today" social media manipulation it is quite low.
I mean tell me one person that believes there is no Russian troops in Ukraine?
However tell me how many people in Europe don't know they changed laws to help "fast track" the European crisis.
To me they just changes laws to make the situation legal.. allowing for the 400 billion Bertie Ahern full of bull scam to happen.
Plenty of laws broken, plenty of rights taken away.
How about the Oil and Gas in this country and the Garda abuse that most don't know about.
Even just the news that was in Europe and what was gong on in Ireland was full of lies.
Stopped watching Euro News after that but all the media was in on it.

Or the cover ups of American forces around the world.
The list goes on and on.

So I'm still lost on the whole.. its OK for western world to do this kind of things (include more murder and torture).
But Putin invades a country with out slaughtering people and then that is MAJOR no no.

What is wrong with everyone being painted with the same brush?

bobcoffee wrote: »

wait EU, corruption, Ukraine, Putin have nothing to do with the topic.

bobcoffee wrote: »

Garda, Bertie Ahern, Shell to Sea, is corruption within our own doorstep.
Western torture and murder, is allowed and goes unpunished.
don't know why you mention FOX news.. it is most of the western world news.. fox news is just a tiny part of that.

the above shows the ongoing corruption that is OUR MEDIA has no problem in lying about it.
but when Russian Media does it... once again its horrible bad and needs to be stopped?

Since it is the US and the EU and that we LIVE in lies to us and spends A incredible amount on it.
It does make the Russia media quite small and pathetic.

We have our own major corruption and those who are at the top of our own corruption are sponsoring the Ukraine government.
Who are the same guys as before just minus one or two guys.
You don't see this as a problem?
Don't see EU pretending to let the Ukraine into Europe is an issue?
Cause once they are "in" there not allowed to move around.
What there getting access is to allow a REALLY corrupt government to get the country into more debt.

Not saying Russia is any better but look at what is around you.

bobcoffee wrote:

But I'm sure that is off topic too.

Mod:

Seeing as you seem to be unsure on what is on or off topic, I'll quote a previous mod instruction:

Scofflaw wrote:

Just a note to say that while discussion of the actions of various interested parties in other conflicts certainly forms a peripheral part of the discussion, turning this into a discussion centered on those other actions or a discussion of the US/Israel etc will result in penalties for derailment.

You can of course start other threads to discuss such issues in the light of current events.

moderately,
Scofflaw

I'll also add that Bertie Ahern, Irelands's oil and gas and Garda abuse aren't in anyway relevant to this thread and topic. It's a politics boards, prople are free to start other threads on these topics. There's enough to be dealing with on this thread without bringing Irish politics into it!

But what if the people of Crimea vote to become a part of the Russian Federation? Would you expect the West to go in and crush the locals?

There are plenty of these ethnically challenging situations that remain after the breakup of the Soviet Union. Some of the breakaway countries, having lived under the communist jackboot for so long, are extremely immature when it comes to national politics and identity - at least when it comes to having a general understanding of "what constitutes a Ukrainian" (or whatever country we happen to be talking about from that region). Do you believe that a large portion of the Ukraine should remain in a (pretty much) 25 year old country despite the local populations' wishes?

A part of our country remains annexed by our larger neighbour for those exact same ethnically and politically inspired reasons - and that took an awfully long time to come to any sort of peaceful conclusion. I say the most peaceful way to resolve this situation is the best and only way...If a breakaway province offends a few overlords in Kiev - who cares? Remember, in the end this is all about who gets to set water rates and taxes and all that other mundane day to day stuff that everyone is forgetting about while the Ukrainian economy slides further down the toilet.

Eggy Baby!

Sand wrote: »

Walter Mittys tend to claim or imagine they are something that they are not. Claiming that Russia is a superpower in the military sense is more of a topic for the Walter Mitty forum than pointing out that they are not. Even you come to the same conclusion in long, drawn out fashion.

Are you suggesting that Russia is a third rate military power? It obviously isn't. You'd have to be deluded to think so. I've already admitted that Russia's army isn't superpower material. It's even there in the part of my post you quoted.

There are plenty of these ethnically challenging situations that remain after the breakup of the Soviet Union.

Mainly because the Soviets set extremely poor borders for each individual SSR. Ukraine, for example, has a poorly defined sovereign territory. The country is not homogeneous at all and has many different major ethnic groups. Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and others also have very poor national borders. For proof, just look at the many, many ethnic and territorial wars/flashpoints following the collapse of the USSR such as the Nagorno-Karabakh war, the various wars in Georgia between the government and the Abkhazians/Ossetians, the crises in Moldova and Ukraine, the Chechen wars....the list goes on. This is what usually happens when large, multiethnic empires fall: see the experience that the Indians and Pakistanis had after the British abandoned the Raj...

In short, the Russians are reaping what the Soviets sowed.

EDIT: And, I forgot to add that WW1 had a very large influence in the creation of these ethnic crises, including in the Balkans, Poland and Russia.

WakeUp

This video is only a few hours old miles and miles of Russian armour on the road from Krasnador heading in the direction of Crimea which is no more than a couple of hours from Ukraines border.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIeUlfeMQZA

The Ukranians have started to move aswell, 80th airborne regiment moving out of Lviv though Im not sure where they are heading.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6blKRuLfN84

95th airborne brigade moving out of Zhytomyr in the west heading east.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eENtdRX2nYo

More than anytime now is the time skill and diplomacy is required to make both sides realise what lays in store if they start shooting each other. And some luck.

sopretty

WakeUp wrote: »

This video is only a few hours old miles and miles of Russian armour on the road from Krasnador heading in the direction of Crimea which is no more than a couple of hours from Ukraines border.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIeUlfeMQZA

.

Why are the trucks facing the wrong way?

WakeUp

sopretty wrote: »

Why are the trucks facing the wrong way?

How do you mean? think it might be a four lane road two either side.

Sand

Eggy Baby! wrote: »

Are you suggesting that Russia is a third rate military power? It obviously isn't. You'd have to be deluded to think so. I've already admitted that Russia's army isn't superpower material. It's even there in the part of my post you quoted.

No, I've pretty much the same view of the Russian military as you seem to do. Not a pushover, but a conscripted force with several decades of poor funding and morale, being addressed in recent years but still not comparable in any shape or form to the Soviet Unions Red Army.

The "superpower" dispute came from karma_ describing Russia as a superpower, and implying that any war with Russia would only end one way. It was also karma_ who introduced the "walter mitty" accusations when others, including myself, disagreed with the classification of Russia as a superpower.

I think karmas view relies on traditional European fear of Russia as some "other" empire rather a genuine appraisal of Russian strength or lack thereof. Russian paranoia regarding NATO is a truer statement of how strong Russia feels in comparison to NATO - they don't seem to believe that any war would only end in Russian victory. They seem to believe instead that Crimea is absolutely critical to their national survival and they are willing to take any risks - up to and including a war they would lose - to attempt to prevent NATO approaching closer to their borders. I believe that fear is irrational, but it does draw on deep-seated imperialism in the Kremlins view of "neighbours". Either to be controlled (like Ukraine pre-2014) or hated and feared (like Ukraine in 2014).

As for "third rate" - no. The only "first rate" military out there is the U.S. They vastly outspend all potential competitors and have an unmatched ability to deploy soldiers to any place in the world within 3-4 weeks. The rest of the regional powers, including European powers (of which I include Russia), are second rate only by comparison to that - Libya demonstrated that the European military forces were incapable of waging even a modestly scaled conflict against a prostrate opponent near to their borders without US command, control and resupply. Though that's only a flaw if you believe the EU - or even the states within it - ought to have the ability to have a fully independent foreign policy from the US.

Meanwhile Russia possesses a very limited ability to project power outside its immediate neighbourhood - the U.K. has probably a greater global reach. The balance of power is that Western Europe includes a *lot* of second rate military powers, whereas Russia is just one. Quantity becomes quality as the Russians know best.

Basically, long story short, Russia has more to fear from an actual shooting war in Ukraine. Putin is gambling very heavily that no one will push him back. Hopefully wiser heads in the Kremlin will prevail but it goes back to my original question - if Ukrainian troops drive south to resupply their bases in Crimea, will Putin order the Russian troops to shoot them?

Though presumably, the Ukrainians can shoot any armed men who refuse to surrender to them without any problems in the Kremlin - after all, according to Putin there is no Russian soldiers in Crimea so there can only be armed bandits and terrorists there.

Eggy Baby!

It was also karma_ who introduced the "walter mitty" accusations when others, including myself, disagreed with the classification of Russia as a superpower.

I agree with this. Russia is not a superpower. A potential superpower maybe (a country with it's population, it's military, it's economy, it's natural resources, and it's human capital is destined to become one. Some people argue that it is one already. I disagree).

On an unrelated note (because this issue wasn't addressed in this thread, it appears) I have read many articles detailing how Ukraine's army is no pushover, and how Russia's army would have a hard time dealing with them etc. etc. Just a reality check- Russia's military is incomparably better in every meaningful index.

The only "first rate" military out there is the U.S.

I agree. On paper of course. It seems as if the scale used to gauge military power these days is "1 to USA".

if Ukrainian troops drive south to resupply their bases in Crimea, will Putin order the Russian troops to shoot them?

Let's hope not.

Jelle1880

A Russian newspaper is now saying that 'Citizens' are placing landmines between Crimea and Ukraine.

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.novayagazeta.ru%2Fphotos%2F62620.html

Manach

Well, when I am planning my coup d'etat, nice to know Crimea has bulk supplies of uniforms, tanks, and now landmines available for citizens.

Conmaicne Mara

Jelle1880 wrote: »

A Russian newspaper is now saying that 'Citizens' are placing landmines between Crimea and Ukraine.

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.novayagazeta.ru%2Fphotos%2F62620.html

You couldn't make it up.............. oh............ wait...........

I wonder does that publication have connections with the Russian government?

fergus1001

Eggy Baby! wrote: »

I agree with this. Russia is not a superpower. A potential superpower maybe (a country with it's population, it's military, it's economy, it's natural resources, and it's human capital is destined to become one. Some people argue that it is one already. I disagree).

On an unrelated note (because this issue wasn't addressed in this thread, it appears) I have read many articles detailing how Ukraine's army is no pushover, and how Russia's army would have a hard time dealing with them etc. etc. Just a reality check- Russia's military is incomparably better in every meaningful index.



I agree. On paper of course. It seems as if the scale used to gauge military power these days is "1 to USA".



Let's hope not.

They are not far off a superpower to be honest and regardless there dangerous beyond comprehension because if you invade them and push them into a corner you will just have 2500~ nuclear warheads shoved up your Willy O Dee

spank_inferno

Jelle1880 wrote: »

A Russian newspaper is now saying that 'Citizens' are placing landmines between Crimea and Ukraine.

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.novayagazeta.ru%2Fphotos%2F62620.html

Those aren't Russian Soldiers planting mines.

They are local citizen defenders / tidy town committees planting tulip bulbs for the summer!

President-in-perpetuity Putin will address press questions tomorrow confirming the"totally not Russian soldiers at all" are planting a beautiful array of anti-personnel & anti-armour tulips.

riffmongous

Manach wrote: »

Well, when I am planning my coup d'etat, nice to know Crimea has bulk supplies of uniforms, tanks, and now landmines available for citizens.

Maybe when you are there you can ask for a russian passport and then later Vlad can also send you some not-russian-soldiers to help

aloyisious

There must be a lot of dedicated retired or reservist soldiers running around in uniform fully armed and equipped in Crimea on behalf of the ethnic-Russians living there, all with access to armouries, transport etc outside of the Ukrainian bases, or with access to the keys of similar Ukrainian facilities. I'm not sure of Grandfathers usually have stocks of land-mines handy in the attic. Either way, the scent of pre-planning hangs in the air, plus the get-together of the Crimean Parliament at short notice to come up with a referendum on unity with Russia. I'd have thought the chance of such a thing being passed slim with the make-up of ethnic deputies in the house (unless it's stacked so's some deputies cannot vote/enter to vote - perish the thought).

gandalf

The reports today from Crimea just reinforce a lot of peoples fears for the non Russian aligned minorities if this illegal annexation takes place. I can see a systematic ethnic cleansing happening if the Russians are let get away with this.

bobcoffee

really, ethnic cleansing not a bit much?
that would defo be the straw that broke the camels back.
Putin is a crazy as hell but he couldn't do that with so many eyes around him.

Lemming

bobcoffee wrote: »

really, ethnic cleansing not a bit much?
that would defo be the straw that broke the camels back.
Putin is a crazy as hell but he couldn't do that with so many eyes around him.

Ethnic cleansing does not defacto equate with mass slaughter. So no, it's not "a bit much" to fear that it may happen.

bobcoffee

did not mean in fear, mean in general as someone else is talking about it in fear.
no idea why you would post that, enough with this your getting paid by putin stuff that is going around in this thread.

Lemming

bobcoffee wrote: »

did not mean in fear, mean in general as someone else is talking about it in fear.
no idea why you would post that, enough with this your getting paid by putin stuff that is going around in this thread.

Right. Of course you did. Because talking about the spectre of ethnic cleansing is a cause for happy thoughts ...

bobcoffee

wow still going for the home run.
convo is about ethnic cleansing atm and your trying to take the high ground.
congrats.

aloyisious

I'm beginning to buy into the notion that Putin may end up starting a new European War due to his actions. He might not mean/have meant to start a war through a gamble, but I believe he has to be given reason to stop his advance into other countries, to stop waffling about stopping his march to a European war. Appeasement doesn't work with a bully.

spank_inferno

aloyisious wrote: »

I'm beginning to buy into the notion that Putin may end up starting a new European War due to his actions. He might not mean/have meant to start a war through a gamble, but I believe he has to be given reason to stop his advance into other countries, to stop waffling about stopping his march to a European war. Appeasement doesn't work with a bully.

Nah.... Few would believe that.

He certainly has a precedent now for a theoretical occupation for any independent country with a Russian minority.
Russia currently occupies 3 former soviet states.

Though EU inaction may look like appeasement, there is limited tolerance among some EU leaders for further Russian incursions.

The EU doesn't speak with 1 mind though.

Putin won't risk a war he would almost certainly lose.

robindch

bobcoffee wrote: »

really, ethnic cleansing not a bit much? Putin is a crazy as hell but he couldn't do that with so many eyes around him.

I'm sure the Russian Army self-organized local defence militias will be only too happy to lend a hand to move the Ukrainians to Ukraine so that they're not in Crimea where they could provoke a confrontation with the Russian Army self-organized local defence militias.

bobcoffee

hey robin you managed not to take things fully out of context, fair play to you.

here I'll do something you can't and add it all in.

"really, ethnic cleansing not a bit much?
that would defo be the straw that broke the camels back.
Putin is a crazy as hell but he couldn't do that with so many eyes around him."

aloyisious

bobcoffee wrote: »

hey robin you managed not to take things fully out of context, fair play to you.

here I'll do something you can't and add it all in.

"really, ethnic cleansing not a bit much?
that would defo be the straw that broke the camels back.
Putin is a crazy as hell but he couldn't do that with so many eyes around him."[/QUOTE.....

Putin will get around the ethnic-cleansing label by use of words that some EU country leaders will willingly swallow, pro-active public order movement of people to a new location (for their own safety - of course), just don't mention the words Gulag or Ghetto Then there's the old favourite, Preventive Detention (internment).

bobcoffee

Ye they really need to get some observers in as quick as possible.
those blockades are making "legal" arrests, confiscating guns and such, where are those people being held?

really think the UN needs to step up on this, Putin is no saint.
still think ethnic cleansing or what ever spin Putin puts on it would be the end of him.
his country would turn on him because Russia's richest would start losing out big time.
wouldn't be any more false threats, not even a war but losing that "throne" of his I'm sure is not on his agenda.

robindch

bobcoffee wrote: »

still think ethnic cleansing or what ever spin Putin puts on it would be the end of him.

That's not the way that Putin works, as I'd have thought you'd have noticed by now.

Putin will continue to provoke Ukraine and pro-unity Ukrainians until there is an incident of some kind, probably resulting in multiple deaths. At this point, he will declare that he needs to send in his army -- this time with their insignia on show -- in order to "preserve peace" and "protect Russians" and "protect his naval bases". That, btw, is why the Russian Army local self-organized militias are shooting at OSCE observers as he doesn't want the OSCE around the place when the real fight and the real bloodshed starts in case they accidentally observe and report something that's at variance with his script. Once the Russian Army shows up, pro-unity Ukrainians will be regarded as a treasonous threat and will, for their own good, be well-advised to leave Crimea. It's soft ethnic cleansing, though Putin will be happy to do the hard kind as well.

His Crimean script, at least so far, is pretty much identical to the Abkhazian and South Ossettian scripts.