Ukraine on the brink of civil war. Mod Warning in OP.

spank_inferno

aloyisious wrote: »

Any aircraft intruding into Crimean airspace might get an adverse reaction, seeing as how the "local militia" seized control of Ukrainian anti-air missiles from one of the Ukrainian bases the week before last.

No, that just locals hunting ducks.

Godge

spank_inferno wrote: »

No, that just locals hunting ducks.

You have to get rid of those imported decadent Western ducks. Look what they do.

Jonny7

Godge wrote: »

The poor locals have to buy tanks instead of cars because of the risk of attack from the American imperial warmongerers.

and don't forget the Nazi horde they are being warned is approaching any day now

Don't worry a small (presumably drunk) army of Cossacks is there to protect them

It would be a bad Mel Brooks movie if it wasn't actually true

Dannyboy83

Jonny7 wrote: »

It would be a bad Mel Brooks movie if it wasn't actually true

Same for questions on the referendum:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/11/us-ukraine-crisis-referendum-idUSBREA2A1GR20140311
According to a format of the ballot paper, published on the parliament's website, the first question will ask: "Are you in favor of the reunification of Crimea with Russia as a part of the Russian Federation?"

The second asks: "Are you in favor of restoring the 1992 Constitution and the status of Crimea as a part of Ukraine?"

At first glance, the second option seems to offer the prospects of the peninsula remaining within Ukraine.

But the 1992 national blueprint - which was adopted soon after the collapse of the Soviet Union and then quickly abolished by the young post-Soviet Ukrainian state - is far from doing that.
Even if it (the referendum) were legitimate, the two choices presented to Crimean voters offer them no option for leaving Russian control," wrote Keir Giles of the London-based Chatham House.

https://www.tytnetwork.com/2014/03/13/best-propaganda-youll-ever-see/

spank_inferno

Would it not be easier to yes/no a single question?

gandalf

spank_inferno wrote: »

Would it not be easier to yes/no a single question?

Sounds a bit like this is a "North Korean" election!

Heads = "Russian" Tails = "Russian"

Sheldons Brain

Heads = "Russian" Tails = "Russian"

Also land on edge = "Russian"

realweirdo

And if the Crimeans vote No to integration with Russia, maybe they will be "asked" to vote again...oh sorry confusing it with EU referendums...

In any case, its irrelevant how they vote.

I expect the result to have an "official" turnout of something like 90% and a vote in favour of integration of at least 70%, a result that has already been decided in Moscow. Don't expect a transparent count like western elections that's for sure!

It looks like the Russians are rounding up and disappearing pro Ukranian activists in Crimea.

Eggy Baby!

Is this After Hours or the Politics forum? Waffling on with cliches, using depressingly dull Russian stereotypes, cracking one-liner thankwhore jokes....ugh.

Nevertheless, cheers again Dannyboy for contributing something reasonable to this thread once again. I'll address one of your recent posts:

There is no Irish equivalent to Mikhail Khordovsky.
You cannot imprison the political opposition or those who fund it in this country.

While the situation regarding political opposition in Russia is pretty bad vis a vis here, Khodorkovsky is a really bad example of political opposition in Russia. The man was a crook who happened to give money to fringe political parties (presumably from his own illegal slush fund). Even the ECHR ruled his sentencing was acceptable....

There is no Irish equivalent to Anna Politkovskaya.
You cannot murder journalists without consequence in this country

This is assuming that Politkovskaya (while a truly brave, pioneering journalist) was actually murdered by the Russian authorities. She made a lot of enemies with her reporting on Chechnya etc., not just among the government.

There is no Irish equivalent to Alexander Litvenienko.
You cannot murder Former FSB agents who write about False Flag operations

This is again assuming that the Russian government actually murdered Litvinenko. Even then, the man was attempting to pass on nuclear secrets to the UK. And even then, the man had links to certain London-based oligarchs and may have had a motive in smearing Putin on his deathbed.

I love the Russian language, and Russian culture. But I'm not under any illusions about the state of the corruption and the jingoism/xenophobia which permeates the culture.

Of course. I've noticed myself that Russians have a certain, unique kind of jingoism too. For example, can you imagine if there were yearly military parades in Dublin? In Moscow they host parades for May Day and so on. Its a tradition carried over from Soviet times. Regarding corruption, Russia is pretty damn corrupt, from top to bottom. This stifles its economic development through red tape and graft, destroys its image abroad, and makes the government and its organs very ineffective. Nevertheless, the situation regarding corruption there has improved since the 90s, correct?

The irony of the Russians calling the Ukranians fascists, is that Moscow has the largest neo-nazi problem on the planet, with racially motivated murders every single month!

The difference of course being that in Russia, extreme nationalists are treated like clowns (see Zhirinovsky) whereas in Ukraine, they are given high up posts in the government! :pac:

Does that mean the Russians are fascists? No, it does not. It means that the Russian have fascists among them, just like the Ukranians have.

Sure, my last comment above was exaggerating the situation. But it is a fact that there are at least a handful of questionable nationalists present in the new government. Considering the role such questionable nationalists played in the protests, its no wonder they have been left with such power.

realweirdo

Eggy, the situation re corruption in Russia has not improved one iota since the 90s, if anything its gotten worse. The problem in the 90s was a weak president, but he did at least allow some freedom for the people and in the rush to create a modern free market economy some mistakes were made.

The rest of your post reads as one long apologia for the current Russian regime.

spank_inferno

realweirdo wrote: »

It looks like the Russians are rounding up and disappearing pro Ukranian activists in Crimea.

Seen that in news alright, John Simpson reporting.

Scary stuff

RichardoKhan

How's the sniper identification going? Hmmmm? This was going to be so straight forward. They are? Hmmm? Still waiting......

aloyisious

Maybe there's a chance that sabres will not be unsheathed yet. At the U.N. Security Council, Ukraine's interim PM, Arseniy Yatsenyuk asked Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin whether "Russians want war." Churkin replied that neither his government nor his people want war. He said, "I am convinced that Ukrainians don't want this either. We don't want any further exacerbation of the situation." However Russia has brought thousands more troops and dozens of armoured vehicles near it's border wit Ukraine for a 2 week "exercise".

I expect an invitation to be extended to Putin late Sunday by the Crimean Parliament for joint operations with Russian military forces inside Crimean territory once the plebiscite-vote is over. If Putin accept's it and instruct's his military to cross the border, then the chances of direct military conflict with Ukraine's in-situ forces are bound to go up in ratio with "local militia" hotheads feeling they are totally in the driving seat. Monday will tell the tale, though it's possible for friendly advice to be offered to those planning Sunday's plebiscite to postpone it for "discussions".

The next thing after troops crossing the border will be the withdrawal by the local parliament of media documentation and expelling of foreign journalists, possibly boosted by what will be the officially-described "unfortunate" death of a foreign journalist to get the herd moving. I don't know what the Net connections and talk from locals to the outside has been like over the past two weeks, but assume that will be curtailed in the above scenario.

spank_inferno

Interesting view from the BBC's Moscow correspondent.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/vladimir-putin/10695204/Paranoia-leads-Vladimir-Putin-to-the-point-of-no-return.html

renegademaster

spank_inferno wrote: »

Interesting view from the BBC's Moscow correspondent.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/vladimir-putin/10695204/Paranoia-leads-Vladimir-Putin-to-the-point-of-no-return.html

it's full of cr4p, highlighting the fact the yanks were all over the Ukraine "revolution" while completely ignoring the possibility that it was the americans that were fighting over themselves to wave at the maidan protestors, telling the eu to fcuk themselves over the phone, divvying up the positions of power before the democratically elected president was toppled!! fcuk the paedo harbouring western propaganda machine thats the BBC!!

spank_inferno

renegademaster wrote: »

it's full of cr4p, highlighting the fact the yanks were all over the Ukraine "revolution" while completely ignoring the possibility that it was the americans that were fighting over themselves to wave at the maidan protestors, telling the eu to fcuk themselves over the phone, divvying up the positions of power before the democratically elected president was toppled!! fcuk the paedo harbouring western propaganda machine thats the BBC!!

Excellent level headed contribution.
Though you forgot to blame the Jewish, lizard people, new world order as per your previous posts)

Congrats.

Eggy Baby!

realweirdo wrote: »

Eggy, the situation re corruption in Russia has not improved one iota since the 90s, if anything its gotten worse. The problem in the 90s was a weak president, but he did at least allow some freedom for the people and in the rush to create a modern free market economy some mistakes were made.

Some freedom for the people? Weak president? Some mistakes were made? Wow....where shall I start...?

Regarding corruption, Russia's score has improved since 1998 (see the Corruptions Perceptions Index, specifically compare 2013 and 1998 in Russia and there is an improvement of at least an "iota"- it definitely hasn't gotten worse).

Regarding the quaint, drunken former president who merely made a "few mistakes" but meant well in the end- Yeltsin committed an autocoup of the Russian state, banned the constitution and he had the parliament shelled when they protested. If anything, he was too strong a president. Saying that the problem lay with a weak president is such a wrong thing to say. In fact, it was the opposite that caused many of Russia's problems.

He was the one who started to bring the Russian media under the control over the state, long before Putin was even a prospective successor.

Some mistakes were made? That has to be the largest understatement ever. Russia sank into a depression which, by many estimates, was worse than the Great Depression! Russia's GDP shrank by half, debt skyrocketed yet social payments and services were eviscerated. Corruption (which had been high even in Soviet times) blossomed. The army began to totally implode as its funding dried up. It was a miracle that not even one of Russia's nuclear armaments fell into the hands of jihadis or other unsavoury groups.

The population began to tank. People began to drink themselves to death in order to escape the misery of Yeltsin's new Russia.

Then- Chechnya. Another one of the "few mistakes", I assume? Yeltsin gave the order to quell the seperatist movement there. The Great Satan Putin inherited the mess that Yeltsin created caused by his radicalisation of the region's Muslims through his use of brute force.

Then of course there was drunken Yeltsin's rambling, buffoonish nature which annihilated Russia's credibility abroad. That's why, you know, he left office with a 2% approval rating by some estimates!!

So, just to recap- Yeltsin destroyed Russia's economy and political system. He caused (with his bullish nature) two huge wars which resulted in hundreds of thousands killed and which haunted Russia for the next 20 years. He brought the media even more in control of the government. He brought the economy even more under the control of the oligarchs. He presided over one of the worst demographic collapses ever.

And yet all he did was enrich himself and his oligarch overlords, simultaneously making his country of birth look like an international joke, while his people starved and drank themselves to death. He was like Yanukovych on crack. How can you possibly defend him so passionately yet have nothing but contempt for Yanukovych?? The guy makes Yanukovych look like a politically transparent master economist. He makes Brian Cowen look like an assertive leader who exuded confidence on the world stage. He makes Mohammed Morsi look like a brilliant statesman and democrat who really cared about the constitution and the wishes of the people.

Your comments show a total lack of understanding of Russia in the 90s and ignorance of the facts. What a totally remarkable whitewashing of history. How can anyone take your posts seriously?

The rest of your post reads as one long apologia for the current Russian regime.

And, unsurprisingly, you don't rebut my arguments. Instead you accuse me of being an apologist for the "regime". I've seen you do this multiple times in other threads, such as where I opposed intervention in Syria and you decided to call me an "Assad fan" and you have called others as such or worse. It's offensive.

But I understand that I don't have the freedom not to be offended here. Nevertheless, considering I'm not labelling you an "American/EU/Western stooge/shill/lover" in kind (when I easily could and am tempted to do so), I would prefer if you would reciprocate.

Jonny7

renegademaster wrote: »

it's full of cr4p, highlighting the fact the yanks were all over the Ukraine "revolution" while completely ignoring the possibility that it was the americans that were fighting over themselves to wave at the maidan protestors, telling the eu to fcuk themselves over the phone

I'll give this a shot..

Diplomats need secure channels in order to be able to discuss a situation frankly

How many times do you think JFK said "**** the whoever" in his lifetime? - it's a part of politics, business and everyday human relations

He sure as hell would have been interested in the Ukraine protests and would be doing what any current regional country (e.g. Poland) and every major power (e.g. UK) is currently doing - forming relations with new potential government, establishing links, advising, etc

Right now, a country like Germany will be on the line to the new interim PM in Ukraine and advising him to drop the fascists

I guarantee it

Is that meddling? depends, for example Russian officials stated openly that Yanukovych should just "shoot the protesters" - it's important to take everything in context

In order for an outlet to provide a good synopsis of the situation - it should includes all sides of the story - not just one phone call

Eggy Baby!

Now, just for reference regarding the economies of the post-USSR space- here's a lovely chart detailing how much each economy has grown since 1993:



Interesting to note that, despite the size of the Ukrainian economy and population, it is dead last in GDP growth. Also interesting to note is that Belarus has performed better since 1992 than many of the Baltic states.

I'll give this a shot..

Diplomats need secure channels in order to be able to discuss a situation frankly

How many times do you think JFK said "**** the whoever" in his lifetime? - it's a part of politics, business and everyday human relations

He sure as hell would have been interested in the Ukraine protests and would be doing what any current regional country (e.g. Poland) and every major power (e.g. UK) is currently doing - forming relations with new potential government, establishing links, advising, etc

Right now, a country like Germany will be on the line to the new interim PM in Ukraine and advising him to drop the fascists

I guarantee it

Is that meddling? depends, for example Russian officials stated openly that Yanukovych should just "shoot the protesters" - it's important to take everything in context

In order for an outlet to provide a good synopsis of the situation - it should includes all sides of the story - not just one phone call

Agreed, but when we take into context recent developments in US-EU relations (i.e the spying scandals), many people are beginning to believe that the USA has a chauvinistic attitude toward the EU. I don't blame them for making that conclusion but it is mostly wrong. The US is definitely an economic rival of the EU (why else would they commit economic espionage on us?). The presence of common threats prevent this rivalry from expanding into the realm of foreign policy, though.

Jonny7

It's no wonder they want Europe

Eggy Baby!

Jonny7 wrote: »

It's no wonder they want Europe

Considering all Ukrainians aren't master economists, its more like they have a crush on Europe rather than a lasting infatuation. They are complaining that Russia is taking their sovereignty and yet they want to join the EU....many people want to leave (or resist) the EU's supremacy on account of it taking away their sovereignty.

Of course, there's always neutrality.

aloyisious

Eggy Baby! wrote: »

Considering all Ukrainians aren't master economists, its more like they have a crush on Europe rather than a lasting infatuation. They are complaining that Russia is taking their sovereignty and yet they want to join the EU....many people want to leave (or resist) the EU's supremacy on account of it taking away their sovereignty.

Of course, there's always neutrality.

But but but, they're not a small island just off the mainland off the mainland.....

Edit; maybe in honour of St Patrick, we could invade them and bring some shamrock to show how neutrality work's, charm the socks off then.

Elmer Blooker

spank_inferno wrote: »

Interesting view from the BBC's Moscow correspondent.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/vladimir-putin/10695204/Paranoia-leads-Vladimir-Putin-to-the-point-of-no-return.html

I think The Telegraph's view would be more like it, he's clearly freelancing for that extreme right wing paper so he has to tell it's readers what they want to read. You wouldn't hear anything as unbalanced as that on the BBC.
After reading that I can almost see Putin stroking a kitten on his lap with THE button beside him like Dr Evil in the Austin Powers movies.

Which brings me to the third factor in Putin’s thinking – his unashamed presumption that Russia has the right and duty to protect Russians wherever they may be

I picked out the above from that article. Last night on BBC news Russians living in eastern Ukraine were giving their views. They were saying they were becoming second class citizens and that the Russian language was being downgraded to second class status. They were angry and also feared the US/NATO installed government in Kiev. These Russians do think Putin has the right to protect them and that's where they are looking to for leadership - Moscow not Washington. This is the first time (and only time) since the Ukrainian crisis began that I have heard Russians in eastern Ukraine even being asked their views, I wonder why?

Eggy Baby!

aloyisious wrote: »

But but but, they're not a small island just off the mainland off the mainland.....

Edit; maybe in honour of St Patrick, we could invade them and bring some shamrock to show how neutrality work's, charm the socks off then.

Ireland is not politically neutral. We are aligned with the EU bloc. We're militarily neutral.

Ukraine could easily be politically neutral. There's always the NAM.

Godge

Eggy Baby! wrote: »

Ireland is not politically neutral. We are aligned with the EU bloc. We're militarily neutral.

Ukraine could easily be politically neutral. There's always the NAM.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-Aligned_Movement#Organizational_structure_and_membership

They are already observers to the NAM, if they really wanted to join, they would have by now.

Eggy Baby!

Godge wrote: »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-Aligned_Movement#Organizational_structure_and_membership

They are already observers to the NAM, if they really wanted to join, they would have by now.

Thanks for that.

Sand

Eggy Baby! wrote: »

Is this After Hours or the Politics forum? Waffling on with cliches, using depressingly dull Russian stereotypes, cracking one-liner thankwhore jokes....ugh.

Lets face it, there is only one sane response to Putin and the rest of the Russian state and media denying there is any Russian troops occupying Crimea: mockery. It's up there with Comical Ali denying US troops were in Baghdad whilst a US armoured column was driving through the background behind him.

Though I'd imagine George Bush II smacked his head of a nearby wall when he realised he could have dodged all that negative criticism about Gulf War II by just denying there was any US troops invading Iraq.

Its difficult to see how Putin can be taken anymore seriously than Yeltsin when he refuses to even talk to the Ukrainians due to this "Nazis under the bed" scare he persists with with little or no justification. The Russians cant get all prickly and defensive about the respect they feel they're owned when they're making fools of themselves like that.

Sand

Eggy Baby! wrote: »

Some freedom for the people? Weak president? Some mistakes were made? Wow....where shall I start...?

You make a convincing case for Yeltsin being a poor president, based on freely available and reported evidence. Out of curiosity, how many journalists critical of the Kremlin were mysteriously murdered or attacked in Yeltsin's time, compared to Putins? It seems to be a real health hazard to report negatively on Putin's achievements - could this affect the objective appraisal of Putins performance? And does Putin benefit enormously by comparison to Yeltsin who was basically a deeply flawed individual? As opposed to comparison to say...Angela Merkel?

I.E. Do we subscribe to the old Russian stereotype of a strongman ruler or chaos as being the only choices for the Russian people, who apparently cant be trusted with the basic freedoms we take for granted in the West?

Manach

Sand wrote: »

You make a convincing case for Yeltsin being a poor president, based on freely available and reported evidence. Out of curiosity, how many journalists critical of the Kremlin were mysteriously murdered or attacked in Yeltsin's time, compared to Putins? It seems to be a real health hazard to report negatively on Putin's achievements - could this affect the objective appraisal of Putins performance? And does Putin benefit enormously by comparison to Yeltsin who was basically a deeply flawed individual? As opposed to comparison to say...Angela Merkel?

I.E. Do we subscribe to the old Russian stereotype of a strongman ruler or chaos as being the only choices for the Russian people, who apparently cant be trusted with the basic freedoms we take for granted in the West?

Yes.
Having read plenty of Russian history, I'd have a fair idea of the push/pull factors involved in the evolution of Russian relationship with the West. Nativists and Occidentalists. Behind all that is experience of what a weak leader who allows anarchy domestically and loses influence abroad. To some segments of Russian Society, the utter disregard their input was held during the Balkans undermined the Western facing intelligentsia and lead in part to Putin's rise.

aloyisious

Is it because Russians are unsure of their position in global society that they are suspicious of other nations or are they suspicious because they are unsure of the same position? Does the Russian nation have a poor self-evaluation or an inbuilt suspicion of other nations that Russia (with all it's self-wealth and territorial-space) is prepared to make the Ukraine a casus-belli with Europe?