Ukraine on the brink of civil war. Mod Warning in OP.

SamHarris

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

I've a pretty good understanding of Russian culture and mentality I think.

This is the one part that boggles my mind tho.

Georgia - Former ally, Sworn Enemy
Ukraine - Former ally, Sworn Enemy

Sorry, but even if there were a media blackout in Britain tomorrow, and Britain went to war with the US... people WOULD stop and ask themselves:

"WTF is going on? There were our ally last week...Why does everyone hate us since this new guy came to power? (Indeed the US population DID ask themselves that question when Bush came to power)

I understand that the Kremlin manipulated the general population through the fascism angle (and in fact, if anyone is paying attention - there are an usually high number of stories in the Russian press e.g. Voice of Russia, concerning BANKRUPTCY).

Not sure if it's wilful ignorance or intimidation...

For decades (maybe now?) the alliances in the East reflected revolutionary movements ideological needs rather than the cultural and historical dispostion of it's people. It's akin to saying that many middle Eastern countries are "friendly" to the West now, but it would hardly be surprising if that were very different in a decade as the more powerful nations in the West find alternative sources for energy (particularly the Us, that nearly gets none from the Middle East now) and/or popular opinion has more an effect on policy. As expediency flags, the tides can turn pretty quickly.

Keep in mind to how ravaged the Ukrainian people were by Soviet and Russian policy in the past. So it's not surprising they have a love/hate relationship in some regions.

constance tench

Tymoshenko: ''And I will use all of my means to make the entire world rise up
so that there wouldn't be even a scorched field left in Russia''

It gets particularly scary at 1m50s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RxSzSWbcxo

Scofflaw

constance tench wrote: »

Tymoshenko: ''And I will use all of my means to make the entire world rise up
so that there wouldn't be even a scorched field left in Russia''

It gets particularly scary at 1m50s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RxSzSWbcxo

Goodness me. Imagine objecting to people invading your country! Imagine talking a blue streak about it! Shocking. Outrageous.

cordially,
Scofflaw

aloyisious

Yulya Tymoshenko statement on conversation.

https://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CEgQFjAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Frt.com%2Fnews%2Ftymoshenko-calls-destroy-russia-917%2F&ei=F4gxU4C1J4zH7Aa3ooDABg&usg=AFQjCNESSLSLEqa-WLvfjyxdI7Y836rxBw&sig2=sPxVR04nlN9SvUdMwCe4zA&bvm=bv.63587204,d.ZGU

Scofflaw

aloyisious wrote: »

Yulya Tymoshenko statement on conversation.

https://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CEgQFjAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Frt.com%2Fnews%2Ftymoshenko-calls-destroy-russia-917%2F&ei=F4gxU4C1J4zH7Aa3ooDABg&usg=AFQjCNESSLSLEqa-WLvfjyxdI7Y836rxBw&sig2=sPxVR04nlN9SvUdMwCe4zA&bvm=bv.63587204,d.ZGU

That seems likely to be accurate - the "killed with nuclear weapons" bit doesn't make much sense in the part of the conversation where it apparently occurs, and is of a different quality to the rest of the tape as well.

With respect to the comments about Russia and Russians - I can't see anything odd about such statements in the context of the Russian invasion of Crimea. Are we actually supposed to hold up our hands in horror at the idea that one might react to actual armed invasion with bellicose language? Given the kind of things said about the troika intervention in Ireland, which was actually a helping hand, I don't doubt we'd outdo Tymoshenko pretty radically on the language front if we were actually physically invaded by foreign troops.

cordially,
Scofflaw

constance tench

Scofflaw wrote: »

Goodness me. Imagine objecting to people invading your country! Imagine talking a blue streak about it! Shocking. Outrageous.

cordially,
Scofflaw

cordial as bitter lemon, as usual.

aloyisious

Scofflaw wrote: »

That seems likely to be accurate - the "killed with nuclear weapons" bit doesn't make much sense in the part of the conversation where it apparently occurs, and is of a different quality to the rest of the tape as well.

With respect to the comments about Russia and Russians - I can't see anything odd about such statements in the context of the Russian invasion of Crimea. Are we actually supposed to hold up our hands in horror at the idea that one might react to actual armed invasion with bellicose language? Given the kind of things said about the troika intervention in Ireland, which was actually a helping hand, I don't doubt we'd outdo Tymoshenko pretty radically on the language front if we were actually physically invaded by foreign troops.

cordially,
Scofflaw

I'd likewise imagine that, given how the ousted Ukrainian Parliament voted to deny her permission to travel to the EU for anti-cancer treatment.

Dannyboy83

Scofflaw wrote: »

With respect to the comments about Russia and Russians - I can't see anything odd about such statements in the context of the Russian invasion of Crimea. Are we actually supposed to hold up our hands in horror at the idea that one might react to actual armed invasion with bellicose language? Given the kind of things said about the troika intervention in Ireland, which was actually a helping hand, I don't doubt we'd outdo Tymoshenko pretty radically on the language front if we were actually physically invaded by foreign troops.

Not to mention the fact that the head of the official Russian government owned international news agency 'Rossiya Segodnya (Russia Today)', Dmitry Kiselyov, imparted his only thinly veiled threat several weeks ago, reminding the world that the US could be turned into nuclear dust by Russia. (and that was all his own work, with no help from the FSB)

God knows what kind of bellicose language he used when sanctions were imposed against him

Pro-Kremlin TV host fumes over European sanctions
“In my view, slapping sanctions on journalists is the lowest thing to do. It’s a blatant attack on freedom of speech,” he added, according to Agence France-Presse.

Earlier this month, the bullish 59-year-old warned on state-run media that Russia could destroy the United States with nuclear weapons.

Dannyboy83

Russian economy is crashing

Russia’s economy is barely growing, inflation is rising fast, and capital is pouring out of the country, the economy ministry has said, a sign that international tensions around Ukraine are already inflicting severe economic costs.
Russia’s deputy economy Minister Andrei Klepach said that the economy ministry forecasts the net capital outflow during the first quarter at $65-70 billion - and “closer to $70 billion”.
That compares with an outflow of $62.7 billion during the whole of 2013.

The Economy Ministry expects inflation to reach 6.9-7.0 percent in March, up from 6.2 percent in February
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/flight-of-capital-from-russia-may-be-close-to-70-billion-1.1737496

Dannyboy83

Lithuania's energy minister has called on the US Senate to speed up the export of natural gas to Europe.

Jaroslav Neverovic said that Lithuania was being forced to pay a "political price" for being entirely dependent on Russian gas supplies.

The energy minister said customers in Lithuania were having to pay 30% more for natural gas than other European nations, because they were "beholden to a monopolistic supplier."

increased US competition could drive down Russia's revenues from natural gas exports by as much as 30% over the next five years, and by as much as 60% in the longer term.

Russia is even more reliant on the European market as the destination of 80% percent of its oil and gas exports,"

SamHarris

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Russian economy is crashing

That would imply it had took off at some point.

Manach

From what I remember at the time and from material written at the time, the current state of Russia is a quantum level to the years following the fall of communism. Whilst not up to Asian standards, that still have weathered the global recession and this is in spite of the kleptocracy of the ruling class that stashed billions in the West - with the knowing aid of the same European governments that are aghast at its intentions against Ukraine.

SamHarris

Manach wrote: »

From what I remember at the time and from material written at the time, the current state of Russia is a quantum level to the years following the fall of communism. Whilst not up to Asian standards, that still have weathered the global recession and this is in spite of the kleptocracy of the ruling class that stashed billions in the West - with the knowing aid of the same European governments that are aghast at its intentions against Ukraine.

Yes, a lot of European countries, particularly Switzerland, makes an awful lot of money turning a blind eye (and even actively protecting) money that would do a great deal of good back "home". Not just from poor countries, but say from the US where a few years ago there was a big to-do about 100's of billions of potential taxes instead going to the Swiss or the Caman islands. When you look at the actual damage done by that these places should come under far more criticism than they do, poverty is a far bigger problem ultimately than all but the most bloody conflicts.

but no, Russia is about the 8th biggest economy in the world, growing at about a 10th the rate of the US (the US gaining about 100 times the wealth every year as Russia). It's economy is entirely dependent on volatile rescource prices and it's population is falling and getting older. It may be doing better than it was right after the collapse of the USSR but that's not saying much at all.

This is part of the reason I can only roll my eyes at all the "new Cold War" talk. Obama was entirely right today - Russia has become a regional power and this is a demonstration of it's weakness rather than strength.

aloyisious

http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/world/ukraine-bars-russian-pilots-626064.html

Bit surprised that Ukraine is keeping an embassy in Moscow, must be hard on them there.

Dannyboy83

The Taking back Crimea award

A few hours ago Russian twitter users started reporting that Russian defense department has published the article and photos of the Russian chief of defense arriving to Crimea and awarding soldiers and local officials with one new award. The medal was called “For getting back the Crimea”. The photos depicted the Russian chief of defense awarding something to the people in camouflage. Some camouflaged people had an insignia “BERKUT” which is the name of Ukrainian special forces unit which became more known after the clashes in Kiev back this winter.

The question here is, who are they giving medals to?
Paramilitaries?

Dannyboy83

I suppose this thread/crisis has run it's course, turning into more of a blog now than anything.

Good thread, thanks all.

Scofflaw

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

The question here is, who are they giving medals to?
Paramilitaries?

Crimean local self-defence forces, of course!

cordially,
Scofflaw

constance tench

David McWilliams ‏@davidmcw Mar 24

'My God the incessant anti-Russian propaganda is transparently Orwellian!'

Max Keiser ‏@maxkeiser 28h

'Dear Ukrainians, Your Gas Bill Goes Up By 50% On May 1, Have A Nice Day'

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-26/dear-ukrainians-your-gas-bill-goes-50-may-1-have-nice-day

WakeUp

So the Russians have started moving their heavier gear in the direction of Ukraine, main battle tanks ( lots of them) heavy guns, attack choppers and all the support vehicles that go with them. Poland is spooked I dont blame them they have started calling up reserves first time to do that and Tymoshenko has announced she intends to run for president. ( vows to fight for the return of Crimea to Ukraine)

http://www.theweek.co.uk/europe/ukraine/57830/why-are-polish-men-london-getting-military-call-papers
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-26/russia-controls-51-ukraine-ships-and-moves-more-tanks-borders-obama-denounces-brute-
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10728031/Jailed-former-prime-minister-Yulia-Tymoshenko-announces-bid-for-Ukraine-presidency.html

Brussels Sprout

So.....what happens now?

WakeUp

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

So.....what happens now?

It could be a bluff there could be things going on behind the scenes we dont know about it, Russia has all but secured Crimea they have no reason to move further into Ukraine because of Crimea. They are building a bridge from the Russian mainland if they do that they dont need to establish a land corridor which would be a reason to take more of Ukraine. I dont believe Putin is crazy which means I dont think he is crazy enough to attack a Nato country I just dont believe he will. Though having that size an army mobilised and ready to go they could move into other parts of Ukraine it cant be discounted yet. The Polish are just being prudent those countries are all on edge it makes sense for them to prepare for any eventuality. If the Russians start constructing field hospitals I would say there is a very high chance they will do something though I cant find anything about that and Ive searched for it. It isnt a good idea for the likes of Yulia to be saying she wants to fight the Russians that isnt helping at all she should tone it down its a fight they just cant win. Russia might be positioning itself for peace terms that could be one reason why there is such a build up, one of a few.

WakeUp

Ok this isnt independently confirmed its coming from Ukrainian intelligence and they havent been on the ball with a couple of things so I dunno..

From local sources, VOA has learned that the Russian military has established a field hospital in the Bryansk region, about 20 kilometers from the Russia-Ukraine border, that some 60 train cars have arrived near the border with supplies and that the frontier is being patrolled by more than a dozen Russian drones.
http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-liveblog-russia-likely-to-invade-ukraine-says-u-s-intelligence/

US intelligence has come out and said that the chance of an invasion has increased over the past few days. They are watching Russian troop movements their satellites are zipping away if that hospital has been built they have to know about it and they havent released the information. If true its a big deal someone needs to confirm that some photos or video footage. Wheres a satellite and access to it when you need one the only way you would probably get close to that hospital if its there is from space. Unless a Russian takes some footage.

Jonny7

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

So.....what happens now?

Putin keeps Crimea, gas prices in Ukraine go up 80%, the Russians exact all out economic war on their already fragile neighbour

A new "frosty/nippy/chilly" war starts between Russia and the West with Ukraine as economic proxy

aloyisious

I'm hoping from what's been spoken that peace has broken out and there will be no more battlefields, and this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=TXqTf8DU6a0#t=5

or this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=ntLsElbW9Xo#t=1

because going to funerals is all that will result, while idiots wait in the wings to climb over the bodies to power.

WakeUp

Looks like the Russians are about to hit back at western sanctions by signing a rather large oil-for-goods deal with the Iranians ( wish we could do this if it wasnt so dangerous at the moment surely we have something the Iranians would like) and disrupting the western blockade of that country. oh dear this could have serious implications in the middlea east. The Americans caught wind of this around January it looks like its about to happen the US response then was as always measured, intelligent, smart and cunning..

"We are concerned about these reports and Secretary (of State John) Kerry directly expressed this concern with Foreign Minister Lavrov today," Caitlin Hayden, spokeswoman for the White House National Security Council, told Reuters.
"If the reports are true, such a deal would raise serious concerns as it would be inconsistent with the terms of the P5+1 agreement with Iran and could potentially trigger U.S. sanctions," Hayden said.

What are they trying to achieve sanctioning Russia whatever it is it isnt working its having the opposite effect,clearly. phucking simpletons. Unless there is some sort of masterplan afoot that we dont know about but somehow I doubt that.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/02/us-iran-russia-oil-idUSBREA311K520140402
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/01/13/usa-iran-sanctions-russia-idINL2N0KN1ZK20140113
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-02/whither-petrodollar-russia-iran-announce-20-billion-oil-goods-deal?page=4

Jonny7

WakeUp wrote: »

Looks like the Russians are about to hit back at western sanctions by signing a rather large oil-for-goods deal with the Iranians ( wish we could do this if it wasnt so dangerous at the moment surely we have something the Iranians would like) and disrupting the western blockade of that country. oh dear this could have serious implications in the middlea east. The Americans caught wind of this around January it looks like its about to happen the US response then was as always measured, intelligent, smart and cunning..

The Russians (and many nations) have been part of the sanctions against Iran. Since Rouhani came to power, Iran has been working with the major powers, having talks, hammering out a nuclear deal - as a result, sanctions have been easing

What are they trying to achieve sanctioning Russia whatever it is it isnt working its having the opposite effect,clearly. phucking simpletons. Unless there is some sort of masterplan afoot that we dont know about but somehow I doubt that.

They are sanctioning individuals from Russia and Ukraine - as well as one or two Russian banks in order to put some pressure on Putin, his close circle and select Russians/ex regime Ukrainians rather than the country as a whole

WakeUp

Jonny7 wrote: »

The Russians (and many nations) have been part of the sanctions against Iran. Since Rouhani came to power, Iran has been working with the major powers, having talks, hammering out a nuclear deal - as a result, sanctions have been easing

They are sanctioning individuals from Russia and Ukraine - as well as one or two Russian banks in order to put some pressure on Putin, his close circle and select Russians/ex regime Ukrainians rather than the country as a whole

Sure, I know whats happening in Iran the sanctions have only been minimally lifted something like 4 and half billion of frozen Iranian funds to be released incrementally over a six month period pocket change to an oil producing country. The average Iranian still cant make an international money transfer and their banks are being hammered among other things. Part of the deal with Russia is for food the average Iranian is still suffering the sanctions should be lifted completely in my opinion. that might be a discussion for another thread but now that Iran has struck a deal for metals and food they can expect more sanctions for Iran. Lucky them. On Monday JP Morgan blocked money a money transfer from a Russian diplomatic mission in Kazakhstan..and they did it unilaterally so are we to expect a complete monetary blockade of Russia sometime in the future. What JPM did has taken things to a whole new level now are other US banks going to try the same sort of thing. A monetary blockade of a Russia is a really really bad idea. The more they Sanction Russia the more the Russians will dig in and resist. If they are that stupid as to think they can freeze Russia out of the monetary system ,sh1t , that isnt going to end well.

Sand

WakeUp wrote: »

The more they Sanction Russia the more the Russians will dig in and resist.

That is an option they could choose. A really bad option, but an option.

Jonny7

WakeUp wrote: »

Part of the deal with Russia is for food the average Iranian

Again, Russia is party to the sanctions against Iran

On Monday JP Morgan blocked money a money transfer from a Russian diplomatic mission in Kazakhstan..and they did it unilaterally so are we to expect a complete monetary blockade of Russia sometime in the future.

And they were correct to do so, as one of the final receivers was linked to Rossiya bank - on the sanction list. They aren't going to be taking any chances. The payment has since been approved.

What JPM did has taken things to a whole new level now are other US banks going to try the same sort of thing.

It's following the recent sanctions - and other intl. banks will be obliged to or face potential severe consequences

A monetary blockade of a Russia is a really really bad idea.

It's not a blockade - it's select sanctions on select individuals and one or two Russian banks

WakeUp

Jonny7 wrote: »

Again, Russia is party to the sanctions against Iran

And they were correct to do so, as one of the final receivers was linked to Rossiya bank - on the sanction list. They aren't going to be taking any chances. The payment has since been approved.

It's following the recent sanctions - and other intl. banks will be obliged to or face potential severe consequences

It's not a blockade - it's select sanctions on select individuals and one or two Russian banks

Back up with the again stuff Jonny Im not your enemy though Im not sure you are fully aware as to what is going on or what it means. The Russians have had enough its game on you understand this right?.. Phucking sanctions whatever they may be for whatever dumbass reason are only making things worse. JPM blocked a transaction from a Russian diplomatic mission this was the Russian response...

“If the American financial structure is expected to earn points in the eyes of the White House in this way, then that decidedly goes too far,” the ministry said in a statement.

“In Washington they need to understand: any hostile acts against Russian diplomatic missions not just constitute violations of international law, but are also likely to lead to counter-steps which will inevitably affect the work of the embassy and general consulates of the US in Russia. In that sense, JPMorgan Chase has done the US administration a disservice.”
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2603afd6-b9d4-11e3-957a-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2xywhNLzN

Sanctions can be construed as an act of war and its Russia they are sanctioning. The Russian- Iranian deal has massive implications yet it doesnt seem to have been reported on much perhaps there is a media blackout I dont know but its a big deal. Russians have drawn their own line and are going to attempt to bust the blockade of Iran. At the next meeting of the p5 and Iran it could happen that the Russians will openly align themselves with Iran and along with Iran refuse to partake in any further negotiations. Once this happens they will be trading a lot more things than food and metals with the Iranians and all the implications that means. And now this from the voice of Russia....

Russia prepares to attack the petrodollar

"The US dollars position for the base currency for global energy trading gives the US a number of unfair advantages. It seems that Moscow is ready to take those advantages away.The existence of “petrodollars” is one of the pillars of America's economic might because it creates a significant external demand for American currency, allowing the US to accumulate enormous debts without defaulting. If a Japanese buyer want to buy a barrel of Saudi oil, he has to pay in dollars even if no American oil company ever touches the said barrel. Dollar has held a dominant position in global trading for such a long time that even Gazprom's natural gas contracts for Europe are priced and paid for in US dollars. Until recently, a significant part of EU-China trade had been priced in dollars.
Lately, China has led the BRICS efforts to dislodge the dollar from its position as the main global currency, but the “sanctions war” between Washington and Moscow gave an impetus to the long-awaited scheme to launch the petroruble and switch all Russian energy exports away from the US currency ."

http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_04_04/Russia-prepares-to-attack-the-petrodollar-2335/

It looks like the Russians and Chinese (BRICS) are serious about this. All joking aside all these sanctions need to stop they are hostile acts they need to start talking to each other sanctions are not helping and they are not having the desired effect infact they are having the opposite. All this sh1t is not good and it wont solve anything.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-04/us-threatens-russia-sanctions-over-petrodollar-busting-deal