Ukraine on the brink of civil war. Mod Warning in OP.

Jonny7

WakeUp wrote: »

The Russians have had enough its game on you understand this right?.. Phucking sanctions whatever they may be for whatever dumbass reason are only making things worse.

These are very minor sanctions and they are having an effect.

It's not like Putin didn't see any of this happening, it's just the price he's willing to pay for taking permanent control of Sevastopol. He may have under-estimated the reaction.

aloyisious

There's a chance that more trouble is on the way for the Ukraine. RTE's repoirted that the regional government building in Donetsk has been taken over by people waving Russian flags, that 500 Riot Police stood by and allowed it happen. The building was the former offices of the ousted president. The report also said thwe security service HQ in Donetsk was also attacked........

https://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CC0QqQIwAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fworld-europe-26910210&ei=R5dBU6XWL6aw7Aa2_IGACA&usg=AFQjCNEse49JamE3hMOzBryVU2HlKBCW8w&bvm=bv.64125504,d.ZGU

Manach

This might be a genunine demonstration beyond Moscow's control, depending on how the local forces have dealt with matters since Crimea's annexation. Given that Putin already has that area and has provoke a minimum of Western protests then on balance this is not part of his gameplay. Hopefully it does not spiral.

Eggy Baby!

SamHarris wrote: »

That would imply it had took off at some point.

So the massive reduction of unemployment, the doubling of GDP (PPP) in ten years, the exponential increase of foreign reserves and eradication of public debt (as a result of year on year surpluses), the halving of poverty and the tripling of wages aren't indicators of a healthy or booming economy?

Brussels Sprout

It tool longer than I expected for things to kick off again in the east but now we have it. The next few days should be interesting.

Would all of those police be locals (as in mostly ethnic russians)? Will they bring the army in to restore order if the the police are standing by?

Jonny7

Call me skeptical but I highly doubt Russian officials will be openly encouraging Ukrainian security forces to shoot these protesters

Brussels Sprout

Pro-Russian protesters who seized the regional government building in Donetsk, Ukraine are reported to have declared a "people's republic".

Footage online showed a Russian speaker telling the assembly "I proclaim the creation of the sovereign state of the People's Republic of Donetsk."

The rebels are reported to have called a referendum on forming a new republic.

Earlier on Monday, protesters seized state security buildings in both Donetsk and Luhansk.

A Russian flag is seen through a broken window of the offices of the state security service in Luhansk on 7 April
Protesters fly a Russian flag from the offices of the state security service in Luhansk
The Luhansk security building's weapons arsenal was raided, police say.

This all seems very familiar.

I wonder will Putin suddenly recognise this 'republic'?

link

comongethappy

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

This all seems very familiar.

I wonder will Putin suddenly recognise this 'republic'?

link

The region is 38% ethnically Russian.
So any vote would obviously be 95%+ in favour of joining Russia.

Also, Shaktar's domination of the Ukrainian league would be over.

aloyisious

Vlad might find now is that once on the back of the tiger, it's hard to get off without being eaten.

Iwasfrozen

Eggy Baby! wrote: »

So the massive reduction of unemployment, the doubling of GDP (PPP) in ten years, the exponential increase of foreign reserves and eradication of public debt (as a result of year on year surpluses), the halving of poverty and the tripling of wages aren't indicators of a healthy or booming economy?

It's a sign of Russia returning to normal output after abandoning the aweful policies of communism. It's not exactly because of Dear Leader Putin's genius and benelovent leadership.

Brussels Sprout

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

It's a sign of Russia returning to normal output after abandoning the aweful policies of communism. It's not exactly because of Dear Leader Putin's genius and benelovent leadership.

Not to mention the collapse of the economy in the mid 90's during the Yeltsin era.

The fastest growing economies in the world are mostly in Africa for the same reasons. They're all coming from extremely low base-lines.

Godge

WakeUp wrote: »

Russia prepares to attack the petrodollar

"The US dollars position for the base currency for global energy trading gives the US a number of unfair advantages. It seems that Moscow is ready to take those advantages away.The existence of “petrodollars” is one of the pillars of America's economic might because it creates a significant external demand for American currency, allowing the US to accumulate enormous debts without defaulting. If a Japanese buyer want to buy a barrel of Saudi oil, he has to pay in dollars even if no American oil company ever touches the said barrel. Dollar has held a dominant position in global trading for such a long time that even Gazprom's natural gas contracts for Europe are priced and paid for in US dollars. Until recently, a significant part of EU-China trade had been priced in dollars.
Lately, China has led the BRICS efforts to dislodge the dollar from its position as the main global currency, but the “sanctions war” between Washington and Moscow gave an impetus to the long-awaited scheme to launch the petroruble and switch all Russian energy exports away from the US currency ."

http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_04_04/Russia-prepares-to-attack-the-petrodollar-2335/

It looks like the Russians and Chinese (BRICS) are serious about this. All joking aside all these sanctions need to stop they are hostile acts they need to start talking to each other sanctions are not helping and they are not having the desired effect infact they are having the opposite. All this sh1t is not good and it wont solve anything.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-04/us-threatens-russia-sanctions-over-petrodollar-busting-deal

I am not sure that attacking the petrodollar will get Russia very far.

The dollar is the accepted currency because of its reliability. Russian and Chinese currencies don't have that.

WakeUp

Jonny7 wrote: »

These are very minor sanctions and they are having an effect.

It's not like Putin didn't see any of this happening, it's just the price he's willing to pay for taking permanent control of Sevastopol. He may have under-estimated the reaction.

Once you begin down the path of sanctions you need to be prepared to back them up Im not so sure the US can. Where do they stop the Russians have just ignored them when push comes to shove what is the US going to do. If the Russians were in two minds as to whether or not they needed to start their own ball rolling the sanctions have made up their mind. A poorly a very poorly though out strategy I think its going to backfire we can see this happening already. Russia can do far more economic damage to the States than the other way around and they know it too. For US economic sanctions to be effective against Russia Europe needs to get on board and be prepared to go all the way. But we cant do that because we cant afford to have the gas turned off considering the economic condition Europe is currently in, Russia knows this too. Sanctions have done nothing but make things worse they have forced the Russians hand they are playing it and its stronger than the US.

Godge wrote: »

I am not sure that attacking the petrodollar will get Russia very far.

The dollar is the accepted currency because of its reliability. Russian and Chinese currencies don't have that.

Fiat currency comes and gos all the time the average life span is about forty years nothing lasts forever especially fiat currency. If the Russians and Chinese dump the dollar other countries may follow suit starting with the BRIC nations perhaps some in the middle east who knows what will happen if those two countries follow through with what appears to be taking shape. If Russia starts accepting payments in another form of currency say rubles or euros or gold then the dollar is in trouble. The US financial system relies on the fact that everyone else is going to use their currency to trade with each other then loan lots of it back to them at really low interest rates. If countries around the globe start changing their behaviour ( commodity deals not involving the dollar ) then the US is in trouble. The Chinese have already started to dump US debt Russia could follow suit and then both could start encouraging other countries to do so. Russia and China are preparing to announce to an energy deal that could pave the way for a new commodity backed reserve currency that bypasses the dollar. It could happen. That deal is really bad news for the US.

comongethappy

WakeUp wrote: »

Once you begin down the path of sanctions you need to be prepared to back them up Im not so sure the US can. Where do they stop the Russians have just ignored them when push comes to shove what is the US going to do. If the Russians were in two minds as to whether or not they needed to start their own ball rolling the sanctions have made up their mind. A poorly a very poorly though out strategy I think its going to backfire we can see this happening already. Russia can do far more economic damage to the States than the other way around and they know it too. For US economic sanctions to be effective against Russia Europe needs to get on board and be prepared to go all the way. But we cant do that because we cant afford to have the gas turned off considering the economic condition Europe is currently in, Russia knows this too. Sanctions have done nothing but make things worse they have forced the Russians hand they are playing it and its stronger than the US.



Fiat currency comes and gos all the time the average life span is about forty years nothing lasts forever especially fiat currency. If the Russians and Chinese dump the dollar other countries may follow suit starting with the BRIC nations perhaps some in the middle east who knows what will happen if those two countries follow through with what appears to be taking shape. If Russia starts accepting payments in another form of currency say rubles or euros or gold then the dollar is in trouble. The US financial system relies on the fact that everyone else is going to use their currency to trade with each other then loan lots of it back to them at really low interest rates. If countries around the globe start changing their behaviour ( commodity deals not involving the dollar ) then the US is in trouble. The Chinese have already started to dump US debt Russia could follow suit and then both could start encouraging other countries to do so. Russia and China are preparing to announce to an energy deal that could pave the way for a new commodity backed reserve currency that bypasses the dollar. It could happen. That deal is really bad news for the US.

If China never purchased another $5 of US debt, it will make little difference to its demand

Most countries have few problems selling their debt (though China & Russian debt is 2x & 4x costlier than US debt.... What does that say?).

Strange how people always predict the Dollars doom is just around the corner.

I encourage those people not to hold their breath!

WakeUp

comongethappy wrote: »

If China never purchased another $5 of US debt, it will make little difference to its demand

Most countries have few problems selling their debt (though China & Russian debt is 2x & 4x costlier than US debt.... What does that say?).

Strange how people always predict the Dollars doom is just around the corner.

I encourage those people not to hold their breath!

Im not holding my breath nor am I predicting the dollars doom I dont want to see it fall in a collapse as I dont think that would be good. Though its status as the worlds reserve currency going forward and in the future is not set in stone as it has been the past few decades.

Scofflaw

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Not to mention the collapse of the economy in the mid 90's during the Yeltsin era.

The fastest growing economies in the world are mostly in Africa for the same reasons. They're all coming from extremely low base-lines.

When your output is two carrots, adding a third carrot is 50% GDP growth, but you're still only producing three carrots.

For some reason people regularly project economic catch-up rates forward into the future linearly, which invariably leads to pronouncements that this or that economy will totally own the globe come next decade unless we all abandon every social and environmental good we support. What usually happens instead is that those countries race up till they get to the same low-growth phase as other mature economies, and then discover that to stay in the race they need to become similar to the old-growth economies the doomsters are decrying.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Jonny7

WakeUp wrote: »

Once you begin down the path of sanctions you need to be prepared to back them up Im not so sure the US can. Where do they stop the Russians have just ignored them when push comes to shove what is the US going to do. If the Russians were in two minds as to whether or not they needed to start their own ball rolling the sanctions have made up their mind. A poorly a very poorly though out strategy I think its going to backfire we can see this happening already. Russia can do far more economic damage to the States than the other way around and they know it too. For US economic sanctions to be effective against Russia Europe needs to get on board and be prepared to go all the way. But we cant do that because we cant afford to have the gas turned off considering the economic condition Europe is currently in, Russia knows this too. Sanctions have done nothing but make things worse they have forced the Russians hand they are playing it and its stronger than the US.

The EU and US have agreed joint sanctions, they are already in place.

Fiat currency comes and gos all the time the average life span is about forty years nothing lasts forever especially fiat currency.

Most currencies are fiat. There are a small army of people who rate, judge and forecast these currencies - the dollar is as high-rated as you can get, it's the most widely used reserve currency and the standard for oil and commodities - not because someone "says so" but because it makes the most financial sense

WakeUp

Jonny7 wrote: »

The EU and US have agreed joint sanctions, they are already in place.

How far are they prepared to go with the sanctions this is the point Im trying to make. Do they plan on something akin to the sanctions Iran is under where its near impossible for money to flow in or out of the country. They have decided on this path with Russia are they prepared to follow through. Take Iran for example the EU froze assets belonging to the central bank of Iran and banned all trade in gold and other precious metals. Then there was an EU ban on the import, purchase and transport of fuel. Then swift which handles global banking transactions cut Iranian banks from its system. and after that the EU banned any transactions with any Iranian banks and financial institutions. Are they prepared to try that sh1t with Russia. somehow I think not.

Most currencies are fiat. There are a small army of people who rate, judge and forecast these currencies - the dollar is as high-rated as you can get, it's the most widely used reserve currency and the standard for oil and commodities - not because someone "says so" but because it makes the most financial sense

These things can change who knows what the future hold.

Jonny7

I don't think the Russian media is even trying anymore

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-26986657

Sand

Wow. I would have thought an ex KGB man would know how to run a proper propaganda campaign. That is just amateurish. The Russian mainstream media seems to be entirely discredited.

aloyisious

Maybe I'm being a tad suspicious here that the "Seizure of Govt Buildings" operations in the Ukraine have taken place at weekends, but wonder if that's because most people will be at rest then, and/or at places of prayer like Sunday two weeks ago. I'm also "surprised" that China seem's to be playing a holding game and taking a "neutral" position at the UN Security Council table. Unless he's already got a deal done with China, allowing them to make moves outside Europe while he distracts attention with his moves in Europe, Vlad might have to be a bit worried by it's quietness.

I'm left thinking that Vlad will soon have to show a direct, overt hands-on interest in what look's like war-games and show that he's in operational control of the Kremlin and Russian forces, before some-one get's to thinking he's expendable.

Edit: silly behaviour can result in "unexpected" reactions when people are jumpy... From today's Irish Examiner.. http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/world/russian-fighter-jet-made-close-range-passes-near-us-warship-627862.html.

simoon86

I'm Ukrainian and I'm died tired that you europeans understand almost nothing.. Be sure that you are not caught up by rascist propaganda which is against Ukraine. Be wise, think many times and remember - Ukraine never started this war, it is pure rascist agression in pair with informational war.

S.R.

simoon86 wrote: »

I'm Ukrainian and I'm died tired that you europeans understand almost nothing.. Be sure that you are not caught up by rascist propaganda which is against Ukraine. Be wise, think many times and remember - Ukraine never started this war, it is pure rascist agression in pair with informational war.

What racist propaganda? Where have you seen racist propaganda?

turnikett1

Has it started?

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2014/04/deadly-clashes-at-eastern-ukraine-port-base-20144177848183522.html

Jonny7

Incredible statement from Putin

He hopes he will not have to exercise his "right" to send troops into Ukraine

jimeryan22

Where's the 40 odd million people who live in Ukraine..? Don't see too many of them on the streets..?
Also haven't seen any of them doing any if their own fighting to stop pro Russian groups taking over the bases and cop shops.. Until yesterday's (uhhum!!) anti terrorist operation they started, but that's the army... Where's all the people in all this..???

Lockstep

The pro-Russian de-facto government of Donetsk has ordered local Jews to register or be deported. Ironic given that they claim the Kiev de-facto government is fascist.
link

jimeryan22

So much for all those who said there was no anti semitism in Ukraine... I seem to remember someone posting a link to a chief rabbi saying there was none of it a few weeks ago..

Lockstep

There was a few attacks on Jews and synagogues which Russia claims was by neo-nazis supporting the Kiev regime but this was disputed by the Ukrainian Vaad (association of Jewish organisations)
Source

Jonny7

Lavrov (the Russian foreign minister) has just claimed that all sides have pledged to deescalate crisis in Ukraine at Geneva

good news for now, we'll see if there's a change on the ground though