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Ukraine on the brink of civil war. Mod Warning in OP.
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Is it supposed to be proof of Russia being involved in East Ukraine? That does not work, I'm afraid. Mate, do you know anything at all about the weapons they are using, or the weapons in general for that matter?Congrats, then I'm sure you know how much training it requires to operate weapons, especially anti-aircraft ones.
The most sophisticated piece they have is 9K111 Fagot, an old anti-tank missile system. If you are not suffering from any musculoskeletal, eye or mental disorder then I can give you a one day training on the thing (two days if you are suffering) and you'll be able to fire it reasonably well. If you don't have a tutor it's well possible to use it by just studying its some 30-pages instruction manual, it's a Soviet dumb-proof design.
Besides, practically every man in good health in Ukraine did his conscription, so there are plenty of people in there who're well trained to operate not just the stupid Fagot but some far more interesting stuff. Many of the older generation, those in their 50ies, fought in Afghanistan.0 -
Colonel Buendia wrote: »Is it supposed to be proof of Russia being involved in East Ukraine? That does not work, I'm afraid. Mate, do you know anything at all about the weapons they are using, or the weapons in general for that matter?
The most sophisticated piece they have is 9K111 Fagot, an old anti-tank missile system. If you are not suffering from any musculoskeletal, eye or mental disorder then I can give you a one day training on the thing (two days if you are suffering) and you'll be able to fire it reasonably well. If you don't have a tutor it's well possible to use it by just studying its some 30-pages instruction manual, it's a Soviet dumb-proof design.
Besides, practically every man in good health in Ukraine did his conscription, so there are plenty of people in there who're well trained to operate not just the stupid Fagot but some far more interesting stuff. Many of the older generation, those in their 50ies, fought in Afghanistan.
The rebels also have anti-aircraft weapons, APCs, heavy machine guns and mortars. Granted I'm no expert on Soviet-era weaponry but it takes longer than one day to become proficient with a weapon, especially something like a mortar which requires teamwork.
Keep in mind that Russians have been heading to Crimea (leaving aside the Russian soldiers who Putin admits were in Crimea)
As previously mentioned, supposed "locals" occupied what they thought was a Kharkiv city hall but was actually an opera house. Furthermore, the Economist highlights that regions captured by insurgents are also ones strategically important for a Russian invasion. It's extremely well planned. Suspiciously so.0 -
An interesting Slashdot article on the actual results of the Crimean vote.
I'd admit I'm surprised that there was such a low in favourite vote - but a there was a bare majority still in favour of succession. I'm open to correction on that last point.
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"Forbes reported on Monday that The President of Russia's Council on Civil Society and Human Rights very briefly and supposedly by accident posted the actual results of the Crimean secession vote. According to the blog post, which has since been taken down, only 30% of Crimeans participated in the vote instead of the 83% participation officially advertised by Russia, and of that 30% only half voted for secession
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link.0 -
Well, with 'North Korean' levels of endorsement, you would hardly imagine it was on the level.
The whole process stank from the get go.0 -
Meanwhile, the avalanche of Putinistas is putting The Guardians workforce under pressure.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/04/pro-russia-trolls-ukraine-guardian-online0 -
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From what I've seen they don't have any anti-aircraft weapons. I would be very interested to see a reliable source for this.The rebels also have anti-aircraft weapons,
They have few they confiscated from Ukrainian army. Do you have any links to APCs of Russian origin in their possession?APCs
Again, have not seen any but would be glad to see a reliable source. Although, with the tactics they are using it would not make much sense to use HMGs or mortars.heavy machine guns and mortars
What's your source of knowledge, mind if I ask you? Do you have any military background?but it takes longer than one day to become proficient with a weapon, especially something like a mortar which requires teamwork
Official training is 16 relaxed hours for 9K115 Metis, presumably less for the older 9K111 Fagot. After that you are supposed to be able to use it reasonably well.
These guys are Cossacks, it's not Russian army. When they went to Crimea they didn't hide who they are from day 1, they were wearing Cossack uniform and presented themselves to the media as Don or Kuban Cossacks. Same actually, as they didn't hide who they are when they appeared today in Lugansk.Keep in mind that Russians have been heading to Crimea
Well, it's not something that Putin admits, Russia has had military presence in Crimea for centuries, except for a couple of years during WWII. It's well known that before the annexation this year they could keep up to 25000 there, isn't it?(leaving aside the Russian soldiers who Putin admits were in Crimea)
As common sense suggests, if that were an organised Russian operation, surely they would know where the city hall is, wouldn't they?As previously mentioned, supposed "locals" occupied what they thought was a Kharkiv city hall but was actually an opera house.
Strategically important for what exactly? Occupying the whole Ukraine in its current borders? Taking over Kiev? Annexation of the whole Novorossiya? Or Little Russia? In any case the choice of Donetsk and Lugansk is very doubtful. Odessa and Kharkov would be more obvious choice. And the value of those protests in the South and East, in the light of anticipated military operation, are very questionable. There is very little Ukrainian army can do against Russia. Judging by their 2008 operation in Georgia, Russians can start whenever they want, go as far as they want and stop where they want, all in a matter of days. Why bother with this uprising in Donbass and Lugansk?Furthermore, the Economist highlights that regions captured by insurgents are also ones strategically important for a Russian invasion. It's extremely well planned.
And besides, could it be that Putin is the least interested in Russian military invasion among all players?0 -
"Forbes reported on Monday that The President of Russia's Council on Civil Society and Human Rights very briefly and supposedly by accident posted the actual results of the Crimean secession vote. According to the blog post, which has since been taken down, only 30% of Crimeans participated in the vote instead of the 83% participation officially advertised by Russia, and of that 30% only half voted for secession
Forbes says nothing about their methodology but if you read the Council's full report it says that the figures are only subjective opinions of few anonymous sources. Even the official figures look more probable as far as the methodology is concerned.
And it's certainly was not posted by accident, the authors were preparing this post since mid April and they have their own agenda, as pretty much everybody else involved in this conflict.0 -
Colonel Buendia wrote: »
And besides, could it be that Putin is the least interested in Russian military invasion among all players?
Why invade a country when he can just park a large army nearby and threaten it, destabilise the interim government, undermine elections, encourage separatism, engage in propaganda overdrive, expand borders and so on
It's a no-brainer0 -
To be fair it's based on media reports who are relying on the Ukrainian interior ministry. That said, helicopters have been shot down over the last few days (Kiev claims SAMs)Colonel Buendia wrote: »From what I've seen they don't have any anti-aircraft weapons. I would be very interested to see a reliable source for this.
They have few they confiscated from Ukrainian army. Do you have any links to APCs of Russian origin in their possession?
Again, have not seen any but would be glad to see a reliable source. Although, with the tactics they are using it would not make much sense to use HMGs or mortars.
Independent
Reuters
NPR
I mentioned earlier in the thread that I was a reservist (artillery). Hardly extensive experience but I trained on a few different things like mortars and the SRAAW which is why I'm so reluctant to say that a mortar can be learned quickly as it involves a group of people learning their own individual jobs as well as how to work in cohesion. It's not something that can be learned effectively in a day.What's your source of knowledge, mind if I ask you? Do you have any military background?
Official training is 16 relaxed hours for 9K115 Metis, presumably less for the older 9K111 Fagot. After that you are supposed to be able to use it reasonably well.
Very true does show that Russians are going into Ukraine to cause trouble which Russia should at least have been keeping an eye on, let alone keep them in check. Then you also had the Russian army but that's a separate issue. See below.These guys are Cossacks, it's not Russian army. When they went to Crimea they didn't hide who they are from day 1, they were wearing Cossack uniform and presented themselves to the media as Don or Kuban Cossacks. Same actually, as they didn't hide who they are when they appeared today in Lugansk.
Actually he has admitted it.Well, it's not something that Putin admits, Russia has had military presence in Crimea for centuries, except for a couple of years during WWII. It's well known that before the annexation this year they could keep up to 25000 there, isn't it?
SourceAs common sense suggests, if that were an organised Russian operation, surely they would know where the city hall is, wouldn't they?
If they were actually locals rather than foreign agents, surely they'd know where their own city hall was, wouldn't they?
Strategically important for a Russian invasion, primarily on road and rail links. Indeed, most were led by unidentified but well equipped soldiers (echos of Crimea's "little green men"). Not necessarily an occupation but as you've pointed out, the Ukrainian army can't really do much against Russia (77,000 troops to Russia's estimated 50,000 on the border alone) but Russia knows from Chechnya that it's one thing to defeat a region but given the relative lack of support Russia would have in Eastern Ukraine, they'd come under a lot of partisan attacks (Economist, 19-25th April 2014)Strategically important for what exactly? Occupying the whole Ukraine in its current borders? Taking over Kiev? Annexation of the whole Novorossiya? Or Little Russia? In any case the choice of Donetsk and Lugansk is very doubtful. Odessa and Kharkov would be more obvious choice. And the value of those protests in the South and East, in the light of anticipated military operation, are very questionable. There is very little Ukrainian army can do against Russia. Judging by their 2008 operation in Georgia, Russians can start whenever they want, go as far as they want and stop where they want, all in a matter of days. Why bother with this uprising in Donbass and Lugansk?
Their exact strategies are still unknown (land corridor to Crimea, Crimean/Transdniestria, dividing Ukraine through the Dnieper are the three possibilities the Economist puts forward)
Given his recent annexation of Crimea, I don't think anyone can really rule out Putin's interests in Ukraine.And besides, could it be that Putin is the least interested in Russian military invasion among all players?0 -
Yes 100% sure.There's no reports of aircraft launching missiles, are you sure it isn't a video from Chechnya?
It seems the there is a LOT of events that went quiet in western media, they only report what they want to show, and dont report what the don't want people to show. This is a part of information warfare & brainwashing.
Odessian special police forces are dropping their riot shields and leaving their positions after talks with anti-maidan leaders (anti-kiev):
youtube.com watch?v=Ft2s7iujr9k
Ukrainian officials claimed in media (before this video was published) that this was an emergency - they have to leave their positions to help at other locations, and couldn't take shields.0 -
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Again, this is not a top secret information! Nobody denies it.The rebels also have anti-aircraft weapons, APCs, heavy machine guns and mortars. Granted I'm no expert on Soviet-era weaponry but it takes longer than one day to become proficient with a weapon, especially something like a mortar which requires teamwork.
BOTH sides admit, that there are many ex-army officers and ex-militia.
I can tell even more:
There are claims (from the rebels side) that there are about 700 volunteers from Southern Russia, including 300 Chechens have just arrived there.
Of course thats a Russian invasion and Putin must be punished!!!
Oh, wait... Al Quaeda had volunteers from UK in Afghanistan, and UK must meet sanctions from US!0 -
If 15% is in favor of Russia, how may are in favor of Ukraine, 0.1%???An interesting Slashdot article on the actual results of the Crimean vote.
I'd admit I'm surprised that there was such a low in favourite vote - but a there was a bare majority still in favour of succession. I'm open to correction on that last point.
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What about the rest 85%?
youtube.com watch?v=IvH2jvUsBb4
Where are the clashes and fights in Crimea?
This is a pro-ukrainian girl on the srteets of Simferopol (early hours of course, because during the day it is too dangerous to have an Ukrainian flag)
youtube.com watch?v=UrgizvwCywQ0 -
Are you talking about Syria now?Why invade a country when he can just park a large army nearby and threaten it, destabilise the interim government, undermine elections, encourage separatism, engage in propaganda overdrive,
sorry, I forgot, that Syria has no border neither have any threats to US...
Also what happens if Russia made a revolution in Mexico - bringing to power Russian-puppet in Mexico? And build up a military divisions of nationalists (anti-american)
I believe US will respect a new government, and dindt' move any piece of their army, especially at the borders!0 -
Really? that's a really surprising news!!
FYI: about 18,000 Russian soldiers (mostly marines) are in Crimea for about last 20 years.
Of course but if you'd been following the thread, you'd see I was referring to Russia's deployed troops (little green men), not the ones in the bases.
Exactly, if you let your citizens go to fight in foreign wars, you are responsible for them. Otherwise you end up with proxy wars and countries being able to say "Hey, it wasn't us, it was just our freedom loving citizens.Again, this is not a top secret information! Nobody denies it.
BOTH sides admit, that there are many ex-army officers and ex-militia.
I can tell even more:
There are claims (from the rebels side) that there are about 700 volunteers from Southern Russia, including 300 Chechens have just arrived there.
Of course thats a Russian invasion and Putin must be punished!!!
The difference being that Britain opposes its citizens going to Afghanistan and either prosecutes them or lets them be prosecuted by other countries.Oh, wait... Al Quaeda had volunteers from UK in Afghanistan, and UK must meet sanctions from US!
Is Russia trying to stop Russians going to Ukraine? Is it prosecuting those who do so?0 -
If 15% is in favor of Russia, how may are in favor of Ukraine, 0.1%???
What about the rest 85%?
youtube.com watch?v=IvH2jvUsBb4
Where are the clashes and fights in Crimea?
This is a pro-ukrainian girl on the srteets of Simferopol (early hours of course, because during the day it is too dangerous to have an Ukrainian flag)
youtube.com watch?v=UrgizvwCywQ
You really need to use better sources than random Youtube links. A video of a helicopter flying around isn't proof, it could be taken anywhere.
As for clashes in the Ukraine, it might be because there's a crackdown on it
Or that the country is under military occupation after a rigged election0 -
Thats a good example:Given his recent annexation of Crimea, I don't think anyone can really rule out Putin's interests in Ukraine.
Crimea was taken without a single shot, and almost no casualties.
And no Kiev is really fighting with full army attacks causing 10-s being killed every day in their own country!
Guess which side do locals support in Crimea and in Eastern Ukraine?0 -
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So where are EU condemnations and sanctions for the UK and other supporters of Syrian 'rebels'?
Exactly, if you let your citizens go to fight in foreign wars, you are responsible for them. Otherwise you end up with proxy wars and countries being able to say "Hey, it wasn't us, it was just our freedom loving citizens.0 -
You see, there are good and bad rebels:Is Russia trying to stop Russians going to Ukraine? Is it prosecuting those who do so?
The rebels that kill US & UK soldiers in Afghanistan - are really bad and prosecuted in UK.
The rebels that kill Syrian soldiers in Syria - are good rebels, and not only OFFICIALLY supported by UK, but also get an official funding!
Russia OFFICIALLY does not support volunteers, nor finance them0 -
Any proof?
Are you actually following the thread or just responding to random posts?
This was dealt with a few posts back
linkThats a good example:
Crimea was taken without a single shot, and almost no casualties.
And no Kiev is really fighting with full army attacks causing 10-s being killed every day in their own country!
Guess which side do locals support in Crimea and in Eastern Ukraine?
Yes, because Ukraine didn't want to give Russia an excuse to use force like in Georgia.
The locals in Crimea are very divided whereas you've been unable to back your claim that Eastern Ukrainians support Russia. So it's just more biased opinions on your part.
Oh look, Britain is arresting its citizens who are heading to fight in Syria.So where are EU condemnations and sanctions for the UK and other supporters of Syrian 'rebels'?
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Will Russia do the same?0 -
Nothern Ireland I guess?You really need to use better sources than random Youtube links. A video of a helicopter flying around isn't proof, it could be taken anywhere.
The guy is speaking Russian with Ukrainian accent (like most of them in Eastern Ukraine)
And he doesn't hide you can contact him for the name and address.
The real problem is that all the info is filtered my western media, and something that shouldn't be seen is not shown
This is in Dublin, have you seen this in Media?
ic.pics.livejournal.com felix_edmund/67616538/91493/91493_900.jpg0 -
No, that does not count as a reliable source. Mr Avakov was not there and could not be an eye witness, plus he has his own agenda to portrait Donbas forces as highly skilled and well equipped Russian spetsnaz to justify the failures of his so far hugely unsuccessful military operation against the rebels. During a conflict or a war I would not trust any mass media unless backed up by a good primary source of information. On the other hand, we have a pretty good coverage of the rebel forces, including real time streams. What we see there is a bunch of mixed aged men, from their twenties to their sixties, armed with Ukranian AKs, RPKs and SVDs (Russians have been using newer models for a good while) or even WWII era guns and hunting long arms. Some are carrying old RPG-7 grenade launchers and 9K111 anti-tank missiles. There are few seized BMD vehicles but they are probably not using them anyway (which actually makes sense with the tactics they employ). That's pretty much it.To be fair it's based on media reports who are relying on the Ukrainian interior ministry.
It looks like the first helicopter was shot down with 9K111 while taking off. Others were probably the work of RPG and some (judging by the images of the helicopters with no major damages and the claims that fighter jets were trying to destroy some of the shot down helicopters) probably by RPKs. Ukrainian army does not have modern helicopters, the Mi-8 and Mi-24 are seriously outdated as attack helicopters as they are easy targets when they are alone. No jets were shot down. That all suggest they are unlikely to have SAMs.That said, helicopters have been shot down over the last few days (Kiev claims SAMs)
Artillery is a completely different story. As for SRAAW, it's AT4 I guess? Did it really take you long to learn how to use the thing?I mentioned earlier in the thread that I was a reservist (artillery). Hardly extensive experience but I trained on a few different things like mortars and the SRAAW which is why I'm so reluctant to say that a mortar can be learned quickly as it involves a group of people learning their own individual jobs as well as how to work in cohesion. It's not something that can be learned effectively in a day.
I've been trained on 9K115 for a day instead of two. It was plenty, especially that for the most part of it it was practising to unpack and get the thing ready quickly enough and then pack it back. It does not involve a great deal of team work btw: the other person (or two) are mainly to carry the missiles (they are heavy) and get it ready to fire and reload quicker. The next day I successfully hit the target, from my first shot.
And again, the vast majority of male population in Ukraine, especially in predominantly working class areas like Donbas, have served in the armed forces and generally know the basic weapons like RPG or portable anti-tank missile systems. In this regard, you cannot really compare the civilian population of Ukraine and the Western Europe.
You probably don't know very well who the Cossacks are. There are historically pretty much independent people, they don't ask for Putin's permission. A good part of the rebellion regions are the lands of Don Cossacks, and there are plenty of Cossacks living there now. There are very tight connections between Donbas, Lugansk and Russian Rostov, many Cossack families are divided by the border, so I think it's quite natural for people not to turn their back on their relatives and friends when they are at war. As for causing troubles, it's all very subjective. Russian propaganda would say that it's the Ukrainian Nazis in and around Ukrainian government and their US managers who are causing all the troubles; Western propaganda would say that it's evil Putin causes all this mess and if only Russia withdrew its spetsnaz, who are fighting against democratic Ukraine, from Donetsk and Lugansk, return Crimea back to Ukraine and move its armed forces to Siberia, the next day peace and order would return back to Ukraine and the reunited country will live happily ever after. What makes one piece of propaganda better than the other?Very true does show that Russians are going into Ukraine to cause trouble which Russia should at least have been keeping an eye on, let alone keep them in check. Then you also had the Russian army but that's a separate issue. See below.
That's not my point. He does not need to admit what everyone knows for centuries. If I remember correctly, what he said on that occasion is that Russian forces were backing up the Crimean militia and the "polite people" during the referendum. Indeed, there were reports at that time that Russian forces are moving up north to the border (and so did Ukrainian army from the opposite direction).Actually he has admitted it.
I know that it would be the last thing for me to believe in orchestrated foreign agents going to take control over a building and not knowing what building they are actually targeting, but that would be at expense of losing my faith in humanity and my own sanity. So were they retarded Russian agents? Or people from Crimea or Donbas who had never been to Kharkov before? Or maybe some locals high on heavy drugs? If you look closely at this episode, I think there is a simple and logical explanation. This opera thing was all over the news, and if I remember correctly, was reposted by US official in social networks. However, when you dig for the primary source it all ends in a facebook post by Slava Mavrichev, a young blogger from Kharkov. There are no other sources. Usually there are plenty of videos online, or at least photos, of much smaller protest events in Kharkov, but nothing this time (not counting a fake photo from February accompanying the news). Also there are usually recordings of the Zello channel used by the protesters to exchange the news and coordinate the effort, but nothing about the opera house on that day. By my standards, it clearly falls into the category of information warfare rather than something that actually took place.If they were actually locals rather than foreign agents, surely they'd know where their own city hall was, wouldn't they?
If you look at Ukrainian mass media, never mind blogosphere, you'll see several news a day like this. A rifle that only Russian spetsnaz is using has been seized. A Russian officer phone conversation recorded. Another 20 GRU spetsnaz solders captured. Words used only by people in St.Petersburg were heard from the armed people in Slavyansk. All have potential to make a headline in Western media (and some of them do) but all luck any proof.
In Crimea they have a naval base for which they have no alternative in the Black Sea, and mostly Russian population that was sick of forced Ukrainisation for the past two decades. What's in Donbas or Lugansk?Given his recent annexation of Crimea, I don't think anyone can really rule out Putin's interests in Ukraine.
So he might have interest in Ukraine as a friendly neighbour and an ally, that is quite likely I think. Taking Ukraine, or its part, to the Russian Federation might, or might not have benefits for Putin, but definitely has serious drawbacks. Interest in Ukraine as place to waste money, lifes of his soldiers and offices, and his own approval rating on a military operation with potential partisan warfare in Western, Central and maybe even some Eastern parts of Ukraine? Definitely not. In addition to that, time works for Putin now. With the awaited economical and political collapse of Ukraine, the longer he waits, more chances he would have greater percentage of Ukrainian population disappointed in EU association and supporting pro-Custom Union and pro-Eurasian Economic Union future for Ukraine.
On the other hand, US interests are totally the other way round. Cui bono?0 -
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So does Ukraine want to give Russia an excuse to use force in Eastern Ukraine?
Yes, because Ukraine didn't want to give Russia an excuse to use force like in Georgia.
and voted in favor of Russia?The locals in Crimea are very divided
And no fights Clashes like in Odessa or Kiev?
I've posted videos how locals are opposing APCs, police are wearing pro-Russian symbols isn't it enough?whereas you've been unable to back your claim that Eastern Ukrainians support Russia.0 -
Putin has not said a single word about deployment!Are you actually following the thread or just responding to random posts?
This was dealt with a few posts back
idUKL6N0N921H20140417] link [/url]
That's an exact example how propaganda works)))
Where does he say: Russia deploy new troops (in addition to existing ~20k) into Crimea recently?Putin said in a televised call-in with the nation. "Of course our troops stood behind Crimea's self-defence forces."0 -
My understanding, from reading books on Russian history by Geoffry Hopkins, is that intervention from Moscow in the region dates back to the 16th Century using local elements such as Cossacks. I'm neutral on that, but it does seem to differ from the concept of supporting terrorism that the UK has established as the means to control its people fighting in Syria - as Cossacks (AFAIK) are scattered around that region.0
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Colonel Buendia wrote: »In Crimea they have a naval base for which they have no alternative in the Black Sea
What about Novorossiysk?0
This discussion has been closed.
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