Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Ukraine on the brink of civil war. Mod Warning in OP.
Options
Comments
-
Sure.I can't. Can you please elaborate?
I'm fairly sure that any state would treat attempts at both a coup (ie extra-parliamentary regime change) and secession as treasonous crimes against the state. It's (legally) justified in taking strong actions against both. Sor example, the Treason Act (1939) in Ireland explicitly defines treason as "levying war against the State, on assisting any State or person or inciting or conspiring with any person to levy war against the State, or attempting by force of arms or other violent means to overthrow the organs of government." The Maidan movement could easily be covered by that latter clause.
The only grounds that I can see for elevating secession above a coup would be a nationalist viewpoint that elevates territorial integrity above the integrity of parliamentary structures. And I'm sure that no one here advocates that.
There is a difference between a state and a government. It is one thing to try and bring in regime change (against the government) and another to demand to secede from the state.
The Maidan protesters were very divided except in their opposition to Yanukovych but he didn't help matters when police brutality was used against them which is when sh!t really hit the fan and insurrection really kicked off. However, Yanukovych fled the country and was voted out by the Rada. This is when he was removed from power and the interim government's authority began.
By contrast, the protesters in the east wanted secession pretty much immediately and were far better armed. This is a key threat to the Ukrainian state rather than the government.
If you follow the link to the source, its one which is referring to the lack of support enjoyed by the rebels.( Al-Jazeera shows in one poll that more than half of Eastern Ukrainians want to remain part of a unitary Ukraine, only a quarter want federalism and a mere 4% want to secede.Here's reference to a poll from early April that shows that "80% wanted to see some kind of change in the region’s status and/or its relations with Kiev", with 32% desiring "some form of independence or unity with Russia." Strangely enough we heard less in the West about this one than the Pew numbers*.
The poll you're referring to was only for residents of Donetsk. At any rate, it shows that only 18% of Donetsk residents support unification with Russia with the majority opposing secession. Half support remaining in a unitary state (without federalism) and 15% support federalism, nearly 80% don't support the rebels and
two thirds wanting to remain in a united Ukraine.
Your source undermines your own argument.
As for support for the Kiev government, I've never stated that the Ukranian government enjoys widespread public support (the Pew poll confirms this) but opposing the government doesn't mean opposing the state.
The appetite for federalism is small. If you'd read your own sources you'd see that in Donetsk, only 15% support federalism while according to the Baltic Surveys and Gallup poll only 10% of Ukrainians support federalism (26% in the East)But frankly a poll is a poll. Opinion is clearly volatile and divided on the ground. What is clear, from both the polls and the coverage of the voting today, is that there is a widespread rejection of the Kiev government in the east of the country. Whatever about formal secession, there is clearly an appetite for federalism of some sort. Pew (surprisingly) fails to ask that question but there's no doubt that the Kiev government enjoys very little legitimacy in the east. Something the repeated 'anti-terror operations' are unlikely to have helped with.
So yeah, no matter where you're polling, nowhere is there even a plurality who support secession or even federalism.
I notice you left out the first part of his Tweet where he saidOne of the Guardian's journalists summed it up in the above link: "There is huge anti-Kiev and smaller but growing separatist sentiment."
"Referendum is farcical by any normal standard"
Ah yeah, voting taking place in chaos where there is no electoral register, people can vote multiple times, lists will be checked "in one day" (good luck with that) while no voters seem to be staying away (not surprising when you have armed soldiers at voting stationsI mean, really, it's pretty silly to suggest that 'the rebels in Eastern Ukraine have no public support' when all reports from the voting happening as we speak suggest a healthy turn-out.
Also
"Most experts agree the Donetsk referendum will not have much significance for the region. While the demand for the region's self-determination is high, the vote's dubious nature and logistical difficulties mean it is unlikely to get wide support from the local population or be recognised as genuine."
source
They certainly don't enjoy "no" public support but they have very little public support altogether. Feel free to refer to any of the above polls. They all conclude the same thing.The idea that these rebels are isolated or enjoy little/no public support is clearly wrong.
Indeed, there is a lot of opposition and dissatisfaction with the Kievn government. However, there is little support for the separatists, even in the Institute of Social Research and Political Analysis source you mentioned.Which is the problem with a lot of the Western narratives here. This has never been about Russia v Ukraine, with the separatists as a proxy for the former. It's about the real divisions in Ukrainian society, with the separatists serving as a lightning rob for general discontent with the Euromaidan coup/revolution.
The problem isn't with the result of the Crimean referendum. It's with the fact that it was a referendum that took place under occupation, without independent observers and was forcibly rushed through in a sham referendum*Similarly, given the complaining about the legitimacy of the Crimean elections, I'm surprised (or not) that few here have picked up on this Pew observation: "For their part, Crimeans seem content with their annexation by Russia. Overwhelming majorities say the March 16th referendum was free and fair (91%) and that the government in Kyiv ought to recognize the results of the vote (88%)."
It's one thing to have a referendum, it's another to do so so illegally.0 -
The National Guard is the Ukrainian army reserve. Feel free to expand on how they're Nazis to justify the hyperbole.Not hyperbole at all. It was "National guars" which is basically armed "Right sector". The main parts of "Right sector" are "White hammer" , "Trident" and "OUN/UPA". All 3 are clear nazy.
Source that these are well known liars?Nice example of propaganda from CNN:"Avakov, on his Facebook page, said about 60 "terrorists," armed with automatic weapons, had launched an attack on Mariupol's police department."
..."Three "casualties" were reported among the separatists, and some Ukrainian officers were hurt, lawmaker Oleg Lyashko said."
These 2 guys very well known as always liers but CNN takes info from them althow thowsands witneses.
Yup. By independent I mean that they're not polemics and have a reputation for reliability. So stuff like The Times or the Guardian but not stuff like RT or Fox News.Have you ever seen "independent media"?
While I appreciate you might have inside knowledge and friends, anecdotal evidence isn't authoritative in any serious discussion or debate. You'll really need to expand on your sources if you want your claims to be taken as evidence.It was a joke about only Galicia. In my message I said (maybe not clear) that across all country result would be truth. But if do split by regions results would be as I described.
I wouldn't able to explain my description in one or few messages. Take it as personal opinion of person who very well knows that region (Ukraine and Russia) and have lot of friends from Ukraine and friends with relatives in Ukraine.0 -
Eggy Baby! wrote: »So what if he's an ex-KGB agent? George H. W. Bush was ex-CIA but nobody cited that whenever they referred to him. Usually when people describe Putin as ex-KGB, they are making a partisan statement and reading from the western media hymn sheet.
Even then, in the USSR, if you wanted to get into politics you either joined the officer corps or the KGB. It was inevitable that the politically well-connected KGB/FSB would play a role in the new Russian state.
[...]
of course…yet the old ideas and ways of thinking, many much older than the ussr, are alive and well…it is safe to say that russia’s imperial agenda, call it soviet or just old-school russian, is as alive as it has been for centuries in many ways…
old wounds fester, new ones open up and history is never over until the world ends…
putin himself called the collapse of the ussr the greatest catastrophe of the 20th century or something like that…0 -
I mean, really, it's pretty silly to suggest that 'the rebels in Eastern Ukraine have no public support' when all reports from the voting happening as we speak suggest a healthy turn-out.
And what if they are voting no?
The poll is illegal and illegitimate in every way possible, it's a travesty of democracy0 -
Wurzelbert wrote: »of course…yet the old ideas and ways of thinking, many much older than the ussr, are alive and well…it is safe to say that russia’s imperial agenda, call it soviet or just old-school russian, is as alive as it has been for centuries in many ways…
old wounds fester, new ones open up and history is never over until the world ends…
putin himself called the collapse of the ussr the greatest catastrophe of the 20th century or something like that…
He called it the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20th century and he is wrong. It was among the greatest geopolitical disasters of the 20th century but it wasn't the worst. Regarding imperialism, this action was certainly imperialistic by the Russians and their meddling in Ukraine is also imperialistic. Any country which has practised imperialism in the past tends to continue doing so- see the US, the UK, China etc. it's in the DNA of these countries. The world has always been split into countries that are subjugated and countries that subjugate the former.The Guardian helpfully supports it's claims of a co-ordinated pro-Putin campaign with actual evidence: http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...ups-priorities
Like I said before, there is no doubt that pro-Kremlin trolls are throughout the internet. But the Guardian is cleverly attempting to cover its very poor coverage of the Ukraine crisis by suggesting that criticism of its coverage is very likely being perpetuated by Kremlin trolls rather than normal people.
From the Guardian article on the trolling:In fairness there is no conclusive evidence about who is behind the trolling, although Guardian moderators, who deal with 40,000 comments a day, believe there is an orchestrated campaign.
So yeah- 100% certainty. The standards at the Grauniad have absolutely tanked, especially in relation to its reporting on Russia....spoken as a regular reader of it's Russia/Ukraine coverage. Luke Harding himself is well known for removing comments on his articles which disagree with his viewpoints.0 -
Advertisement
-
Eggy Baby! wrote: »He called it the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20th century and he is wrong. It was among the greatest geopolitical disasters of the 20th century but it wasn't the worst.
ah yes, thanks, didn’t bother to look up the exact quote…and of course that’s just his take on things…kind of subjective anyway whatever one sees as the greatest disasters…Eggy Baby! wrote: »[...]Any country which has practised imperialism in the past tends to continue doing so- see the US, the UK, China etc. it's in the DNA of these countries.
[...]
yes, at least those that ended up on the winning side in the world wars…the others had their souls ripped out and their dna altered…0 -
Wurzelbert wrote: »ah yes, thanks, didn’t bother to look up the exact quote…and of course that’s just his take on things…kind of subjective anyway whatever one sees as the greatest disasters…
I'd definitely agree that that Putin's is a subjective viewpoint. He is an establishment Russian who saw the country (and all of the other post-Soviet states) tear itself apart after the Soviet Union was dissolved. Compare his viewpoint to, let's say, a Jew who was in Auschwitz during the Holocaust or an Indian family caught in Pakistan after the Raj fell and they will have wildly differing opinions on what was the "greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20th century".yes, at least those that ended up on the winning side in the world wars…the others had their souls ripped out and their dna altered…
Imperialism still exists these days, stronger than ever because the world is even smaller and far away places are much easier to reach. Now its just hidden behind a veil of humanitarianism, exporting democracy, and power projection. It's funny how things change so much yet stay the same in essence.
I need a massive favour from any German speakers out there:
Here's an article from Spiegel Online which apparently puts forward the notion that 400 Academi (Blackwater) American mercenaries are fighting in the service of Sokol (Ukrainian police forces). Naturally, I'm pretty hesitant to believe this sort of stuff but seeing as Spiegel was cited by some anti-conspiracy types earlier in this thread as a reliable news source, I just thought I'd cite it. Only problem is that its in German. Kudos to anyone who can extract any information from it:
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise-400-us-soeldner-von-academi-kaempfen-gegen-separatisten-a-968745.html0 -
Eggy Baby! wrote: »Imperialism still exists these days, stronger than ever. Now its just hidden behind a veil of humanitarianism, exporting democracy, and power projection. It's funny how things change so much yet stay the same in essence.
Perhaps Iraq, but the word imperialism is a bit dramatic and has the wrong connotations
It's fairly standard business, trade, influence, genuine humanitarianism, geopolitical posturing that every country engages in to a greater or lesser degree
And just like Iraq put the US under a microscope - recent events have put Russia under the same scrutiny, and yes it does uncover some ugly truths0 -
Eggy Baby! wrote: »I'd definitely agree that that Putin's is a subjective viewpoint. He is an establishment Russian who saw the country (and all of the other post-Soviet states) tear itself apart after the Soviet Union was dissolved. Compare his viewpoint to, let's say, a Jew who was in Auschwitz during the Holocaust or an Indian family caught in Pakistan after the Raj fell and they will have wildly differing opinions on what was the "greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20th century".
Imperialism still exists these days, stronger than ever because the world is even smaller and far away places are much easier to reach. Now its just hidden behind a veil of humanitarianism, exporting democracy, and power projection. It's funny how things change so much yet stay the same in essence.
I need a massive favour from any German speakers out there:
Here's an article from Spiegel Online which apparently puts forward the notion that 400 Academi (Blackwater) American mercenaries are fighting in the service of Sokol (Ukrainian police forces). Naturally, I'm pretty hesitant to believe this sort of stuff but seeing as Spiegel was cited by some anti-conspiracy types earlier in this thread as a reliable news source, I just thought I'd cite it. Only problem is that its in German. Kudos to anyone who can extract any information from it:
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise-400-us-soeldner-von-academi-kaempfen-gegen-separatisten-a-968745.html
the spiegel article states a few things regarding those 400 mercs:
- the whole thing is so far more of a rumor and has (of course) been denied, seems was reported in germany by bild, a tabloid like the sun or so…
- seems the russsian state news agency "ria novost” reported those mercenaries were fighting in ukrainian special police uniforms
- who would have given the order and would be paying for them is unknown0 -
Perhaps Iraq, but the word imperialism is a bit dramatic and has the wrong connotations
It's fairly standard business, trade, influence, genuine humanitarianism, geopolitical posturing that every country engages in to a greater or lesser degree
And just like Iraq put the US under a microscope - recent events have put Russia under the same scrutiny, and yes it does uncover some ugly truths
Imperialism's meaning has been watered down, just like war. Decades ago, when you blatantly attacked a country with aircraft, that would result in war. Now, countries can bomb and shell and annex bits of other countries without war ever being declared. Now there's just "interventions" which is doublespeak for an explicit act of war.
It doesn't matter if imperialism has the wrong connotations. Colonialism died out but humanity will always experience imperialism in some way or another because there will always be big fish and there will always be little fish.
Let's face it, we now live in a world where a country can literally annex parts of another country (justified or not) with practically no repercussions. Other countries can launch airstrikes and naval campaigns against countries with no repercussions.
Look at the bombing of Libya, for example (the bombing undertaken by Reagan). It was a blatant act of aggression which only got by unpunished because it wasn't technically an act of war, it was a "punitive airstrike". Iraq was bombed after the First Gulf War by Clinton too- no war.
Wars are unpopular, so you have to dumb down aggressive actions for the masses. Wars are impossible in this globalised world without huge backlash. Who knows, maybe this trend will continue until countries are in full conflict with each other and nobody realises they are at war...?0 -
Advertisement
-
the spiegel article states a few things regarding those 400 mercs:
- the whole thing is so far more of a rumor and has (of course) been denied, seems was reported in germany by bild, a tabloid like the sun or so…
- seems the russsian state news agency "ria novost” reported those mercenaries were fighting in ukrainian special police uniforms
- who would have given the order and would be paying for them is unknown
Ah yes....Russian state media. Honestly though, RIA Novosti was a very objective media outlet. However, it has since been gobbled up by Moscow I believe.0 -
Eggy Baby! wrote: »Ah yes....Russian state media. Honestly though, RIA Novosti was a very objective media outlet. However, it has since been gobbled up by Moscow I believe.
well, i wouldn‘t be surprised if it turned out to be all true…let's just wait and see...0 -
Lockstep, do you trust BBC?
I couldn't find the English version of this article, but it can be easily translated with google:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/russian/international/2014/05/140505_ukraine_slavyansk_offensive_fears.shtml
Ukrainian aviation destroyed freight train(!!!), which was used by separatists to make an armored train.
As reported to BBC by the independent reporter Harriet Salem, who is currently in the town of Slavyansk, locals are actively supporting pro-Russian separatists, and with increasing fear are waiting for a large scale assault operation by Ukrainian army
Currently at the neighbor town Konstantinovka, the BBC reporter Sarah Rainsford is confirming that there is a growing mood of anxiety in the nearby area.
According to he, many people are terrified and outraged with news from Odessa, where tens of Pro-Russian perished. There is "no excuse" for those deaths, they say.
Even here, in the heart of Russian speaking Ukraine, as Sarah Rainsford says, sometimes you can see the signs of a support of the Ukraininan unity: Raised Ukrainian flags, or a lamppost, pained in the colours of Ukrainian flag.
But an absolute majority here are full of irreconcilability and anger with Kievan's authorities, for sending troops to fight separatists
A crowd of local yong men gathered at (rebels) headquarters, are asking for firearms to fight & defend the town.
an so on...
Any questions?0 -
Ref results in - 89% in favour, 75% turnout
Gonna be a tricky one for Putin - support it, discard it or ignore it0 -
Ref results in - 89% in favour, 75% turnout
Gonna be a tricky one for Putin - support it, discard it or ignore it
Kudos on them for counting millions of votes in an hour or so.
Some achievement.
Applying the Kremlins own scale (if compared to the Crimean "referendum"), the turnout would be around 27%.0 -
comongethappy wrote: »Kudos on them for counting millions of votes in an hour or so.
Some achievement.
Applying the Kremlins own scale (if compared to the Crimean "referendum"), the turnout would be around 27%.
Your calculations might be off, you're obviously not factoring in the people who voted at least twice0 -
Your calculations might be off, you're obviously not factoring in the people who voted at least twice
Even the pet cemetery voted.
Not you Humphrey Boa-Gart!
http://img1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20120805093415/simpsons/images/7/78/Humphrey_Boa-Gart.png0 -
Lockstep, do you trust BBC?
I couldn't find the English version of this article, but it can be easily translated with google:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/russian/international/2014/05/140505_ukraine_slavyansk_offensive_fears.shtml
Ukrainian aviation destroyed freight train(!!!), which was used by separatists to make an armored train.
As reported to BBC by the independent reporter Harriet Salem, who is currently in the town of Slavyansk, locals are actively supporting pro-Russian separatists, and with increasing fear are waiting for a large scale assault operation by Ukrainian army
Currently at the neighbor town Konstantinovka, the BBC reporter Sarah Rainsford is confirming that there is a growing mood of anxiety in the nearby area.
According to he, many people are terrified and outraged with news from Odessa, where tens of Pro-Russian perished. There is "no excuse" for those deaths, they say.
Even here, in the heart of Russian speaking Ukraine, as Sarah Rainsford says, sometimes you can see the signs of a support of the Ukraininan unity: Raised Ukrainian flags, or a lamppost, pained in the colours of Ukrainian flag.
But an absolute majority here are full of irreconcilability and anger with Kievan's authorities, for sending troops to fight separatists
A crowd of local yong men gathered at (rebels) headquarters, are asking for firearms to fight & defend the town.
an so on...
Any questions?
And yet, the claim that the vast majority of Eastern Ukrainians support secession doesn't hold up in the polls with one report showing that only 4% of Eastern Ukrainians want to secede while the majority while even in Donetsk, only 18% support unification with Russia and 77% support the actions of the rebels
And then there's the Pew poll which you disregard as it's DC based but make of that what you will.0 -
What? You don't trust BBC?And yet, the claim that the vast majority of Eastern Ukrainians support secession doesn't hold up in the polls with one report showing that only 4% of Eastern Ukrainians want to secede while the majority while even in Donetsk, only 18% support unification with Russia and 77% support the actions of the rebels
And then there's the Pew poll which you disregard as it's DC based but make of that what you will.
You only trust the sources which comply with your point, I see.Russian
Speaking Citizens
Not Under Pressure or Threat
Its just a question of the methodology:
Most (unless all) of Ukrainian state websites have their information in Ukrainian and ... ENGLISH.
This is like all Irish official web site will be abailable only in Gaelic and ... French.
Will you be feeling a threat? Probably not. Will you be pissed off? Probably yes.0 -
Not exactly. It's when it comes down to something a reporter claims vs the findings of three polling groups.What? You don't trust BBC?
You only trust the sources which comply with your point, I see.
I'm on the ground in Galway but when it comes to local politics, I'd put a lot more store in polling groups than stuff I hear anecdotally.
I'm not sure what your point is here. Can you expand on it please?Its just a question of the methodology:
Most (unless all) of Ukrainian state websites have their information in Ukrainian and ... ENGLISH.
This is like all Irish official web site will be abailable only in Gaelic and ... French.
Will you be feeling a threat? Probably not. Will you be pissed off? Probably yes.0 -
Advertisement
-
I wonder what the total count would be versus the total population?comongethappy wrote: »Kudos on them for counting millions of votes in an hour or so.
Some achievement.
From http://www.cnn.com/2014/05/11/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/Many of the voters were not on the outdated registration lists but were allowed to vote after showing identification documents.
There also seemed to be no system in place to prevent one person from voting at multiple polling stations.
A CNN crew saw several people vote twice at one polling station, where the ballot boxes were decorated with new Donetsk independence flags.
There was also a report of video showing three men arrested near Slovyansk with boxes of "yes" ballots in their car.
I'm thinking he means that Ukraine is ex-Soviet bloc, and thus it would have made more sense having the card in Ukraine and Russian.I'm not sure what your point is here. Can you expand on it please?0 -
Nope I don't trust them either, BBC has gone to the dogs too. For example when that conversation of Turkey's planned false flag attack in Syria in order to enter full scale was leaked, BBC would only report that there was a leak and that Turkey declared it as treasonous. They didn't report the content (the planned false flag attack) of the leak, neither online nor on live broadcasts at the time. Very misleading.What? You don't trust BBC?
[/SIZE]
.0 -
Yup they really have gone to the dogs
I remember one time the BBC presenter announced the weather was next, instead - we got black and white footage of troops marching
Never trusted them again after that0 -
Tea drinker wrote: »Nope I don't trust them either, BBC has gone to the dogs too. For example when that conversation of Turkey's planned false flag attack in Syria in order to enter full scale was leaked, BBC would only report that there was a leak and that Turkey declared it as treasonous. They didn't report the content (the planned false flag attack) of the leak, neither online nor on live broadcasts at the time. Very misleading.
Great point. In fact I saw no real explanation of the turkey false flag in main stream media... Only the, you guessed it. Conspiracy news.0 -
Well it looks like the presidential election will be a bit of farce if it does go ahead in 2 weeks. Most of the Eastern Ukraine will be unable or unwilling to participate making the new president as weak as the interim one.0
-
We went a bit off topic
Separatist leaders have asked to join Russia.. which completely skips the federal stage.. to essentially become part of Russia
Still waiting to hear the response from Putin0 -
-
This is probably naive in the extreme, but is it possible that Western Ukraine might be better off letting the eastern regions secede. In the current situation they might be able to extract decent development funds and trade deals (better than the original EU offers anyway) with the 'West'. It might be short term pain for long term gain?0
-
cunnifferous wrote: »This is probably naive in the extreme, but is it possible that Western Ukraine might be better off letting the eastern regions secede. In the current situation they might be able to extract decent development funds and trade deals (better than the original EU offers anyway) with the 'West'. It might be short term pain for long term gain?
I'm sure similar arguments were made about the Sudetenland back in 1938. Unfortunately we all know where the policy of appeasement led us.
The laughable thing is that with all their anti fascist talk the Russians are using the fascist play book nearly to the letter from 1938.0 -
Advertisement
-
I'm sure similar arguments were made about the Sudetenland back in 1938. Unfortunately we all know where the policy of appeasement led us.
The laughable thing is that with all their anti fascist talk the Russians are using the fascist play book nearly to the letter from 1938.
Did you not get the memo? That was 'the good Hitler' back when he was re-unifying the fatherland. That was before he turned and had to be defeated by Russia.
Russian media, strange and scary place...
The most fascist regime this side of North Korea calling others fascists and Neo-Nazis is so feckin' bizzare.0
This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement