Ukraine on the brink of civil war. Mod Warning in OP.

aloyisious

sopretty wrote: »

I'm sorry to sound stupid again, but what is this MAD that y'all refer to?

Look up the film "Dr Strangelove - or how to love the bomb"

mike65

This will be decided by who's got the deepest pockets not biggest military.

Russia has one thing and one thing only that the rest of the world needs - gas and Spring is about to be sprung. The markets are down the rouble is down the interest rates are up, gold is being sold by Moscow. A short term victory for Putin will become a long term defeat if he isn't careful.

jmayo

Godge wrote: »

There is a difference between now and 100 years ago.

Trade interdependence is such is that if your population has access to consumer goods and good food, it won't stand for a war that denies it access to consumer goods and good food. The paradox is that you won't have a strong military unless you have an economy strong enough to fund it, one which includes a population with access to consumer goods and good food.

A conventional war might still work in sub-Saharan Africa or North Korea but not very many other places. The one place you would worry about is Iran as they might just sustain a war.

Granted the world has changed hugely in those 100 years.
People in developed countries are more educated, have access to more uncontrolled media (a lot more thanks to internet), have quicker access to news and do indeed have a better quality of life thanks to the access they have to all the goods sourced from around the world.

But how often has mankind shown that we fail to learn from our mistakes and how we are still capable of great stupidity and great butchery.

Was WWI not the war to end all wars.
After WWII did we now say never again would we allow mass genocide.
Pity no one told the Rawandans, Cambodians, Bosniacs, etc.

MAD does offer some cause for thought and no one, bar a complete lunatic, would risk all out war that could lead to annihilation.
Normally a proxy war could be played out, but that is impossible given the location of Ukraine.

Elmer Blooker

When Germany was reunified there was a promise made that NATO would "not spread one centimeter east" I presume the only reason that the former Soviet republics of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia were "invited" to join NATO was to antagonize Russia. Surely these little republics with very large Russian populations should have remained neutral and non aligned in the interests of world peace? I can't really blame Mr Putin for protecting Russia's interests in the Black Sea region from the expansion of NATO.
http://en.ria.ru/russia/20090402/120879153.html (5 yr old article)

Says I To Bridey

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

When Germany was reunified there was a promise made that NATO would "not spread one centimeter east" I presume the only reason that the former Soviet republics of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia were "invited" to join NATO was to antagonize Russia. Surely these little republics with very large Russian populations should have remained neutral and non aligned in the interests of world peace? I can't really blame Mr Putin for protecting Russia's interests in the Black Sea region from the expansion of NATO.
http://en.ria.ru/russia/20090402/120879153.html (5 yr old article)

Or maybe these countries wanted to join NATO to ensure their own safety and prevent a situation like whats happening to the Ukraine now happening to themselves

monty_python

looks like 3am could be a very interesting time in this conflict

http://news.sky.com/story/1220272/ukraine-russia-delivers-assault-storm-deadline

Conas

monty_python wrote: »

looks like 3am could be a very interesting time in this conflict

http://news.sky.com/story/1220272/ukraine-russia-delivers-assault-storm-deadline

Go on the Putin. :cool:

Obama tweets. Putin leads.

Reekwind

Godge wrote: »

Trade interdependence is such is that if your population has access to consumer goods and good food, it won't stand for a war that denies it access to consumer goods and good food. The paradox is that you won't have a strong military unless you have an economy strong enough to fund it, one which includes a population with access to consumer goods and good food.

The world of 1914 was economically more integrated than any point since (up to the 2000s, maybe). That didn't stop tens of millions of Europeans dying over the following three decades.

But let's be clear - in this case EU/US sanctions would be targeted at the Russian elites and not a broader economic blockade. Russia isn't Cuba or Iraq.

bobcoffee

jmayo wrote: »

Fecking hell I have heard some stuff levelled at Enda, but being compared to Putin is a new one on me.
Perhaps he will establish a few Oligarchs in Mayo and we can conquer the rest of ye.
BTW we do have the gas (just get rid of the protestors and it will flow), we probably have oil off the coast and if we just dug up Croagh Patrick we have gold.
And then there is the Georgia question.

Well I'm sure there are some benefits to watching the RTE news I can tell you however your information on "gas" in Ireland is very well misinformed.
Most protesting is done not on the basis of stopping anyone from taking it but more about them doing it right.
Pumping unrefined (none smelling gas) through the worst bog in mayo comes to mind.
Also once the gas "flows", then it flows out of Ireland.
We get little from it as we have one of the worst.. WORST deals in the WORLD.

"Has p.ie shut down or something because the amount of "western conspiracies/America is at fault for everything/lets see the yanks get beaten" garbage floating around here is at a new level."

wow, you mean that ALL the stuff America and it very delightful Allies, from bombing to torturing INNOCENT villages and peasants back to hell can produce negative feedback, AMAZING...
Have you ever heard about the times when Britain would just kidnap random people, torture them, kick them out of helicopters while pretending to be very high in the air.. that kind of stuff.
Any chance you remember how much recruitment the IRA got from these "moments".
And how close it brought a WAR in Europe.
Not remind you of what the Americans and Allies have been doing for the last 10+ years.
Someone made a valid point on facebook.. yes I know but point is valid.
If it was nato doing the invading they would just carpet bombed it.
Russian army still needs to attack.
Also our delightful news seems to not be reporting everything.
Especially the part about crimera asking Russians for help.
Yes the people democratically elected ASKED for help.
Which I'm very sure Russia was already prepared to do.
EU and Americans have been doing nothing but playing games, even before Russia done a thing.
who is worse the Psycho or the ones who poke him?

Conas

Reekwind wrote: »

The world of 1914 was economically more integrated than any point since (up to the 2000s, maybe). That didn't stop tens of millions of Europeans dying over the following three decades.

But let's be clear - in this case EU/US sanctions would be targeted at the Russian elites and not a broader economic blockade. Russia isn't Cuba or Iraq.

Well if the rumours are true that €5 billion of America's money went into Ukraine, then Obama has forces inside the goverment that he has no control over. Which goes to show how shockingly weak he really is. Listen to what Victoria Nuland said a while go with her 'F*ck the EU' comments. Obama has to find out who got that money, and what for. No point huffing and puffing at Russia. You reap what you sow.

spank_inferno

Conas wrote: »

Well if the rumours are true that €5 billion of America's money went into Ukraine, then Obama has forces inside the goverment that he has no control over. Which goes to show how shockingly weak he really is. Listen to what Victoria Nuland said a while go with her 'F*ck the EU' comments. Obama has to find out who got that money, and what for. No point huffing and puffing at Russia. You reap what you sow.

Link?

bobcoffee

you could just use google

aloyisious

RTE Radio news has just reported that the head of the Russian Black Sea Fleet has put an ultimatum to the Ukrainian Military Bases in Sevastopol to surrender by dawn tomorrow or they will be attacked with maximum force

bobcoffee

Aljezzera also reported this


then from the same live blog (which is a very good one)
"A representative of Russia's Black Sea Fleet has said there are no plans of storming the military units of Ukraine in Crimea.

"This is complete nonsense," the Russian military Interfax news agency reported.

"We have become accustomed to the daily charges of carrying out any military actions in relation to our Ukrainian colleagues," said the representative.
[Interfax-Military news agency]"

Sierra Oscar

bobcoffee wrote: »

Aljezzera also reported this


then from the same live blog (which is a very good one)
"A representative of Russia's Black Sea Fleet has said there are no plans of storming the military units of Ukraine in Crimea.

"This is complete nonsense," the Russian military Interfax news agency reported.

"We have become accustomed to the daily charges of carrying out any military actions in relation to our Ukrainian colleagues," said the representative.
[Interfax-Military news agency]"

There have been eye witness accounts from journalists of the threat being delivered.

Christopher Miller:

Despite what Russian Defense Ministry says, those of us who were there heard this ship deliver ultimatum to Slavutych

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/440536399444328448

The Ukrainian PM to the EU has also stated that they believe Russia is preparing a false flag operation to unleash war.

bobcoffee

man is someone starting a war with russia?
cause it really sounds like a lot of misinformation going around and it doesn't make sense for Russia to be doing it.
Since they get nothing from it, if the ultimatum was handed in then denying it would just look weak.

also rumor going around earlier on social media about Kiev ordering its special ops to take back Crimera, but special forces said no.
wouldn't believe that at all but was going around.

I just checked the tweet, I thought it was something official, really need something more solid.
One bullet drops and it won't be all out war but one thing for certain innocent people will get butchered.
really hope it doesn't come to that.
EU are not helping at all, really ashamed to be a european atm. when will we learn?

spank_inferno

What is Bobcoffee's plan to make the EU all that he desires??

Lemming

bobcoffee wrote: »

man is someone starting a war with russia?
cause it really sounds like a lot of misinformation going around and it doesn't make sense for Russia to be doing it.
Since they get nothing from it, if the ultimatum was handed in then denying it would just look weak.

Ohai Mr. Medev, didn't see you set up that account ...

also rumor going around earlier on social media about Kiev ordering its special ops to take back Crimera, but special forces said no.
wouldn't believe that at all but was going around.

Errr, rumour? So you haven't seen that youtube video with Russian special forces captured on camera & being told to p1ss off by Ukranian officers when they were caught & stopped trying to "confiscate" Ukranian weapons from a barracks. Refused orders my @rse.

bobcoffee

no haven't seen the video and still lost on what Russian Special forces has to do with Kiev ordering Ukraine Special forces. (which is probly false and not worth a convo)
Russia is no golden boy in this at all.
But our news is spreading around a lot of bull at the same time all we are getting is scraps from here and there.

Russia, just dropped it troops, went hell no we want a solution, so far that we know of hasn't killed anyone.

the Allies when invading a country are quite different, lots of bombs, lots of civilians deaths, lots of torture.

anyone remember watching "war p0rn" live on the news as "shock an awe" was in play.
nothing discussed me more then to see that.
how is it Russia is evil no matter what but western world can do the same and it is ok.
is that not a bit 2 faced?

spank_inferno

What does Bobcoffee want the EU to do???

ZeroThreat

monty_python wrote: »

looks like 3am could be a very interesting time in this conflict

http://news.sky.com/story/1220272/ukraine-russia-delivers-assault-storm-deadline

People in Sheffield are apparently s****ing themselves

Conmaicne Mara

bobcoffee wrote: »

doesn't make sense for Russia to be doing it.
Since they get nothing from it

I lol'd at that.

Potentially they may get all of Crimea, securing their only warm water naval base. They may get Eastern parts of Ukraine but that's doubtful. They will have caused great instability in a country on their border looking for closer links with EU and NATO. That gives them influence and the ability to keep "The West" at bay in that neighbourhood. They also have Ukraine by the knackers financially, as well as militarily.

They get what Russia always wants, control.

I'd say they're getting quite a lot.

sopretty

Sky News is currently reporting that Russian troops have seized a Ferry port in the Ukraine and are now moved into the Ukraine..

wexie

Conmaicne Mara wrote: »

I lol'd at that.

Potentially they may get all of Crimea, securing their only warm water naval base.

People keep mentioning this, and I remember it from my history lessons way back when. But what's the big deal though, Russia have a substantial coastline on the Black Sea, surely it'd be easier and less costly to just build a new naval base than to go to war (potentially) to keep the one they have?

cerastes

Manach wrote: »

From what I remember for the Cold war days, the Poles were some of the best regarded of the Warsaw pact forces. Given that the memory of the 1920s war with Russia where they were successful with only a scratch force, then this is a rather interesting step.

I heard the same of the East Germans? smaller motivated but still well equipped, well motivated forces have defeated larger forces of less substance in the past. Russia has no designs on Poland or even western Ukraine. If that happens its time to**** your pants.

bobcoffee wrote: »

no haven't seen the video and still lost on what Russian Special forces has to do with Kiev ordering Ukraine Special forces. (which is probly false and not worth a convo)
Russia is no golden boy in this at all.
But our news is spreading around a lot of bull at the same time all we are getting is scraps from here and there.

Russia, just dropped it troops, went hell no we want a solution, so far that we know of hasn't killed anyone.

the Allies when invading a country are quite different, lots of bombs, lots of civilians deaths, lots of torture.

anyone remember watching "war p0rn" live on the news as "shock an awe" was in play.
nothing discussed me more then to see that.
how is it Russia is evil no matter what but western world can do the same and it is ok.
is that not a bit 2 faced?

Heard Gilmore? sounded like anyway, on the radio condemning this.
I dont recal hearing such condemnation from him before about Libya, Iraq, same with Hague.
Not that Im condoning what Russia has done, Id consider the Ukrainian forces have a right to repel boarders but seem undecided/divided themselves about what to do.
Bases being surrounded, sounds like they have their heads up their asses, smaller forces have kicked larger militaries before, when organised and motivated, not that Im suggesting force is the best option here either. Hard to see why they were still in their barracks and not equipped and on the ground when the Russians started posturing on the border, maybe they dont know if they can rely on their own forces?

If Russia takes a military or hard line, then this may only serve to push Ukraine further away more quickly, but how it doesnt spell the end for Russian bases on Ukrainian soil, surely it must. You cant have a foreign nation have large numbers of miltitary forces and equipment on or inside your border and not consider that it can be used against you on the say so of its masters.

Im trying to see what the possible other situation here is? extreme sabre rattling but no actual application of military might, push the EU to take a supportive financial stance and get Russia off the hook economically? roll back forces to starting lines, stating objective achieved but keep pre invasion forces in place, or with the view of maintaining the military bases in The Crimea and no withdrawal timeline or plan, hence maintain military control over the Crimea indefinitely.

Conmaicne Mara

wexie wrote: »

People keep mentioning this, and I remember it from my history lessons way back when. But what's the big deal though, Russia have a substantial coastline on the Black Sea, surely it'd be easier and less costly to just build a new naval base than to go to war (potentially) to keep the one they have?

Costly exercise I'd say, building an entirely new port and all the infrastructure to go with it. As for war, I don't see that happening, I mean look at the other side, Obama, Cameron & Clegg? Hollande? Really? Merkel and the Poles would be another kettle of fish, but the rest have as much steel in them as a rubber duck.

cerastes

Conmaicne Mara wrote: »

Costly exercise I'd say, building an entirely new port and all the infrastructure to go with it. As for war, I don't see that happening, I mean look at the other side, Obama, Cameron & Clegg? Hollande? Really? Merkel and the Poles would be another kettle of fish, but the rest have as much steel in them as a rubber duck.

This is as much an excuse to hold onto the naval base indefinitely.

wexie

Conmaicne Mara wrote: »

Costly exercise I'd say, building an entirely new port and all the infrastructure to go with it. As for war, I don't see that happening, I mean look at the other side, Obama, Cameron & Clegg? Hollande? Really? Merkel and the Poles would be another kettle of fish, but the rest have as much steel in them as a rubber duck.

hmmmyeah, but even so, they should be prepared for it. I get the whole history thing but I'd think if it was just about a naval base then they could use one of their existing ports. They have a large port just up the coast from Sochi, would have seemed less hassle.

Conmaicne Mara

cerastes wrote: »

This is as much an excuse to hold onto the naval base indefinitely.

Yes, there are added extras for the Russian side if they play their cards right though. Having influence in Ukraine is a very big thing for them.

wexie wrote: »

hmmmyeah, but even so, they should be prepared for it. I get the whole history thing but I'd think if it was just about a naval base then they could use one of their existing ports. They have a large port just up the coast from Sochi, would have seemed less hassle.

Who will put it up to Putin though? While the Ukrainian armed forces have been remarkably restrained, how reliable are they? Ukraine is broke for a start, who else will want to send troops in to this war? I don't see many chomping at the bit for a go at "Ivan".

aloyisious

Maybe Putin feared that if he didn't act in one way or the other, he'd be given the heave at home by his colleagues in what was the Politburo. All things considered, the way things could go, I'd prefer the title of this thread to be the limit of any conflict

Icepick

Conmaicne Mara wrote: »

Costly exercise I'd say, building an entirely new port and all the infrastructure to go with it. As for war, I don't see that happening, I mean look at the other side, Obama, Cameron & Clegg? Hollande? Really? Merkel and the Poles would be another kettle of fish, but the rest have as much steel in them as a rubber duck.

Last thing we need is posturing of wannabe alpha males.

Conmaicne Mara

Thinking about it, it may be better for Russia that Crimea stay within Ukraine. As it would allow more pro Russian voices in Ukraine elections. Once they could secure the future of their naval base, and keep Kiev Govt relatively weak.

Conmaicne Mara

Icepick wrote: »

Last thing we need is posturing of wannabe alpha males.

They're not even wannabes.

It would be interesting to see the Russian reaction if European forces started mobilising though. Don't want to see it happen but I wonder what would Putins next move be if tanks appeared on trains in Germany, Poland and a few other states heading towards Ukraine border, invited by that Govt to "secure the peace" so to speak.

BorneTobyWilde

The Ukrainian forces were been directed by the former President , and the President was under Putins control... so they will give up easily and let the Russsia forces take over their bases with no fight.
It's what happens when the Russians try to take Kiev that will be interesting. Do they even intend to?
I doubt it

robindch

bobcoffee wrote: »

man is someone starting a war with russia?

If you believed any of the Russian state-controlled propaganda outlets, yes, you could be mistaken for thinking that.

The truth is a little simpler - a large, aggressive nation has invaded a weak, non-aggressive nation because, well, it wants to recover the face lost by the dismissal of Putin's immensely corrupt friend in Kiev. The invasion also plays well to Putin's well-developed inferiority complex as well as the millions of uniformed, gagging xenophobes back home, currently plastered on a high-octane mix of nationalism and vodka.

Little Pootle and his pocket parliament don't need any further justification for war.

Conas

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

The Ukrainian forces were been directed by the former President , and the President was under Putins control... so they will give up easily and let the Russsia forces take over their bases with no fight.
It's what happens when the Russians try to take Kiev that will be interesting. Do they even intend to?
I doubt it

I know the EU and the US are threatening Russia, but Putin has more aces up his sleeve, especially with the EU. He could shut off the gas line to Europe which would be terrible.

He should have no interest in going to Kiev though. I mean this is not good for Europe or the US, because there going to have to give Ukraine billions in bail out money, because they are in serious economic trouble. So I'm not sure anyone can say they have the upper hand here. Ukraine are in big trouble either way if you ask me.

Conas

robindch wrote: »

If you believed any of the Russian state-controlled propaganda outlets, yes, you could be mistaken for thinking that.

USA is by far the worst state control propaganda on the planet.

robindch

Conmaicne Mara wrote: »

[...] I wonder what would Putins next move be if tanks appeared on trains in Germany, Poland and a few other states heading towards Ukraine border [...]

Poland announced yesterday that it has moved tanks and troops to the Ukrainian border:

http://www.news.com.au/world/russian-troop-invasion-encircles-crimeas-capital-as-ukraine-pm-declares-the-nation-to-be-on-brink-of-disaster/story-fndir2ev-1226843109609

I don't believe Germany has made any possibly-relevant movements of men or materiel.

spank_inferno

Conas wrote: »

USA is by far the worst state control propaganda on the planet.

Explain to the class.

robindch

Conas wrote: »

USA is by far the worst state control propaganda on the planet.

...a comment suggesting that you know little or nothing of either the USA or Russia.

Here's the main Russian state-controlled "news" outlet. It's a bit like Fox News, save that it's more obviously makey-uppey, and good heavens, that's saying something:

http://www.rt.com

cerastes

robindch wrote: »

...a comment suggesting that you know little or nothing of either the USA or Russia.

Here's the main Russian state-controlled "news" outlet. It's a bit like Fox News, save that it's more obviously makey-uppey, and good heavens, that's saying something:

http://www.rt.com

The newscasters are better looking (the women), nice glass tables and less gung ho, seem more professional to me.
I thinkt hey at least appear to present a more balance approach.

ZeroThreat

Germany frankly doesn't have to balls to mobilise troops even if it were a defensive action.

czx

cerastes wrote: »

The newscasters are better looking (the women), nice glass tables and less gung ho, seem more professional to me.
I thinkt hey at least appear to present a more balance approach.

Nice glass tables
Lol

Mongfinder General

robindch wrote: »

Poland announced yesterday that it has moved tanks and troops to the Ukrainian border:

http://www.news.com.au/world/russian-troop-invasion-encircles-crimeas-capital-as-ukraine-pm-declares-the-nation-to-be-on-brink-of-disaster/story-fndir2ev-1226843109609

I don't believe Germany has made any possibly-relevant movements of men or materiel.

The Germans? Probably terrified that they'll get another hiding from the Russians.

Conmaicne Mara

robindch wrote: »

Poland announced yesterday that it has moved tanks and troops to the Ukrainian border:

http://www.news.com.au/world/russian-troop-invasion-encircles-crimeas-capital-as-ukraine-pm-declares-the-nation-to-be-on-brink-of-disaster/story-fndir2ev-1226843109609

I don't believe Germany has made any possibly-relevant movements of men or materiel.

Polish ministry of defense yesterday said it was training unrelated to Ukraine situation on Twitter.

Conas

robindch wrote: »

...a comment suggesting that you know little or nothing of either the USA or Russia.

Here's the main Russian state-controlled "news" outlet. It's a bit like Fox News, save that it's more obviously makey-uppey, and good heavens, that's saying something:

http://www.rt.com

I wouldn't be as biased as you are though. Fox News is pure and utter garbage, owned by Rupert Murdoch, CEO is Roger Ailes, so I wouldn't expect anything less. At least with RT they get on people who are a lot more controversial, and they don't shout people down, or cut them off. Fox News drummed up the Iraq war with their out and out rubbish talk, so wouldn't be going to them over the Ukraine thing.

spank_inferno

Mongfinder General wrote: »

The Germans? Probably terrified that they'll get another hiding from the Russians.

Moot point as Germany would not be fighting alone.

Though Merkel has been the busiest of the EU leaders is seems.

She has much more resolve than Cameron.

Reekwind

Conmaicne Mara wrote: »

...I wonder what would Putins next move be if tanks appeared on trains in Germany, Poland and a few other states heading towards Ukraine border, invited by that Govt to "secure the peace" so to speak.

Who knows - maybe this time they'll take Moscow

spank_inferno

Conas wrote: »

I wouldn't be as biased as you are though. Fox News is pure and utter garbage, owned by Rupert Murdoch, CEO is Roger Ailes, so I wouldn't expect anything less. At least with RT they get on people who are a lot more controversial, and they don't shout people down, or cut them off. Fox News drummed up the Iraq war with their out and out rubbish talk, so wouldn't be going to them over the Ukraine thing.

Fox is a company owned by shareholders.

It is not a National broadcaster, receives no taxpayer funding & barely mentions anything without bashing the presidency.

Unlike the Ruskies state media...

I'm not sure you understand the meaning if 'propeganda'.

Have you ever been to the US?

Mongfinder General

spank_inferno wrote: »

Moot point as Germany would not be fighting alone.

Though Merkel has been the busiest of the EU leaders is seems.

She has much more resolve than Cameron.

Indeed but there are plenty of p1ssed off PIIGS who'd just love to see the Germans get a pasting...

As Kent Brockman declared in the Simpsons "I for one welcpme our new Overlords..."