Ukraine on the brink of civil war. Mod Warning in OP.

comongethappy

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

months old? It's much older than that. You probably are not aware of what happened in Ukraine during WW2.

Just referring to the current one Elmer....

I assume there has been a period of non-war these past few years?

Elmer Blooker

comongethappy wrote: »

Just referring to the current one Elmer....

I assume there has been a period of non-war these past few years?

Tensions can simmer for years, for example Yugoslavia and closer to home Northern Ireland, there can be periods of "non war" but history does tend to repeat. Russians suffered terribly under Nazi occupation and those Ukrainian ultra nationalists who collaborated. These nazi groups have unfortunately raised their ugly heads once again.

gandalf

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Tensions can simmer for years, for example Yugoslavia and closer to home Northern Ireland, there can be periods of "non war" but history does tend to repeat. Russians suffered terribly under Nazi occupation and those Ukrainian ultra nationalists who collaborated. These nazi groups have unfortunately raised their ugly heads once again.

Ah but it is earlier than that. The Ukrainians suffered dreadfully under the collective farm policy of Stalin hence the reason for the collaboration of some of them with the Nazi's.

But you are talking about another era. If Nazi thugs were such an issue for the Russian authorities then they should surely sort out the 85,000 that they have within Russia first rather than start a proxy war with their nearest neightbour

gandalf

Actually there are Neo-Nazi's in the Ukraine.

They are Russian ones fighting with the Pro-Russian Separatists.

http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=42481&no_cache=1#.U9C7G0A_xoE

........Now it appears there are connections to the most extreme nationalists, Russia’s neo-Nazi movement. Posting on Facebook, Alexander Belov, the leader of the banned Movement Against Illegal Immigration (known by its Russian acronym DPNI), announced the death in Donetsk of Sergei Vorotsev. Vorotsev was a former organizer for the DPNI in the Moscow Region town of Korolev (Official Facebook page of DPNI, June 4). According to the same posting, Vorotsev was killed in the battle for the Donetsk airport......

Harry Palmr

Ukraine PM resigns.

Corkfeen

steveblack wrote: »

There is zero evidence of russian soldiers fighting in the east ukraine. None whatsoever, if there was any it would be all over the news. Not a peep about about russian soldiers in the east has been reported any where.
Where is your evidence of this?

Here's a separatist pointing out that they are supplied by them.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/23/us-ukraine-crisis-commander-exclusive-idUSKBN0FS1V920140723?utm_source=twitter

There's also the fact that Russia illegally annexed the region of Crimea. Even ignoring the separatists, this is Russian soldiers illegally taking a zone based on referendum that isn't exactly the most trustworthy. My issue is with the Russian government which is highly corrupt. Has a leader who is responsible for the murders or imprisonment of people he disagrees with. Ignoring all the homophobic legislation, I think that there's plenty to have a gripe with just there!

steveblack

Corkfeen wrote: »

Here's a separatist pointing out that they are supplied by them.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/23/us-ukraine-crisis-commander-exclusive-idUSKBN0FS1V920140723?utm_source=twitter

Fake made by Reuters in which different parts of the real interview were re-mixed together in order to make it sound as if Khodakovsky was saying that the Resistance had a BukM1

globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ie/2014/07/reuters-debunked-khodakovsky-denies.html

steveblack

Corkfeen wrote: »

There's also the fact that Russia illegally annexed the region of Crimea.

So when the russians organise a vote in crimea it is illegal, but when the americans overthrow a democratically elected leader and organise a vote in kiev its legal?

steveblack

Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk resigned today, the US action in ukraine is working out just about as good as Iraq.
There version of events is unraveling, he is getting going while the going is good, be interesting to see where he ends up.

Corkfeen

steveblack wrote: »

So when the russians organise a vote in crimea it is illegal, but when the americans overthrow a democratically elected leader and organise a vote in kiev its legal?

It was organised in a single week while armed individuals were on the ground intimidating the public. Do you really think it's possible to have a fair referendum while intimidation is an issue? So yeah anyone with a bit of common sense can see it's not legitimate.

steveblack

Corkfeen wrote: »

It was organised in a single week while armed individuals were on the ground intimidating the public. Do you really think it's possible to have a fair referendum while intimidation is an issue? So yeah anyone with a bit of common sense can see it's not legitimate.

So whats you opinion of what happened in kiev?

aloyisious

I'd like to know who's bankrolling the separatists. Given the offer by Holland to put (unarmed MP,s) soldiers (and ditto Australia - Federal Police) in on the ground with Ukrainian Govt permission, under U.N. flag, I hope Russia takes note that should a separatist jock fire on and hit one of the above, it would escalate the situation to international level beyond it's control. It wouldn't be like shooting a foreign journalist or a Medicine-Sans-Frontier, it'd be a direct assault on a foreign power's representative, with undefined diplomatic and commercial retaliation on the puppeteer.. There's a report on the other (downed Malay Civil Aircraft) thread quoting a Ms Marie Harf, US State Dept spokesperson that the US has evidence that Russian Military Forces are directly involved in the conflict through the use of it's artillery from within Russia's borders to fire on Ukrainian Military positions in Ukraine. Unfortunately Ms Harf was only able to mention un-named US sources for the info she relayed and was unable to provide evidence to those she briefed. The Irish Times also carried a story on her briefing... link: http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/dutch-send-police-to-mh17-site-in-search-for-last-remains-1.1878031 (Ms Harf's briefing is on the second page of the Irish Times (Europe) story, contained within it's World News section.

Lemming

aloyisious wrote: »

I'd like to know who's bankrolling the separatists. Given the offer by Holland to put (unarmed MP,s) soldiers (and ditto Australia - Federal Police) in on the ground with Ukrainian Govt permission, under U.N. flag, I hope Russia takes note that should a separatist jock fire on and hit one of the above, it would escalate the situation to international level beyond it's control. It wouldn't be like shooting a foreign journalist or a Medicine-Sans-Frontier, it'd be a direct assault on a foreign power's representative, with undefined diplomatic and commercial retaliation on the puppeteer..

Unless the separatists launched a determined assault against such a unit/position I don't think it'd come to anything more than some very, very unpleasant & awkward political maneuvering because everyone wants to avoid very big bullets being lobbed back and forth between the major powers. What would likely happen is political maneuvering, probably talk of further sanctions, and a change in the rules of engagement to allow proactive and very robust (i.e. leave now now or we will f*ck you up) response to any seperatist activity.

Sand

aloyisious wrote: »

Given the offer by Holland to put (unarmed MP,s) soldiers (and ditto Australia - Federal Police) in on the ground with Ukrainian Govt permission, under U.N. flag, I hope Russia takes note that should a separatist jock fire on and hit one of the above, it would escalate the situation to international level beyond it's control. It wouldn't be like shooting a foreign journalist or a Medicine-Sans-Frontier, it'd be a direct assault on a foreign power's representative, with undefined diplomatic and commercial retaliation on the puppeteer..

The Dutch don't have a tremendous record for holding their ground under UN command, even when armed. And I think you overestimate the impact of the UN being attacked. UN representatives and installations are routinely attacked in conflicts with no real consequences - look at the UN school in Gaza recently. On top of that a mob attacked a UN compound in Afghanistan in 2011, killing 7. Nothing happened. In January of this year, armed men stormed a restaurant in Kabul, murdering 14, including 3 UN personnel. Nothing happened. Armed gangs attacked a UN compound in South Sudan this April, nothing happened.

Basically, UN personnel, armed or unarmed aren't people whose deaths will lead to an immediate and devastating response. It's fairly routine that they are targeted and killed and nothing actually happens. Putin and the seperatist rebels will be aware of that. The Dutch will be aware of that. The Russians will feel (justifiably) able to intimidate and bully any unarmed, unprotected group put into eastern Ukraine.

aloyisious

This report might be (originally) be based on something from a dis-information source, but I'll post it anyway, as it might be 90% correct.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/from-russia-with-zeal-ukraine-s-new-rebels-1.1878267

comongethappy

Satellites are starting to notice what the Ukrainian government have been saying for weeks.... Incoming artillery/missile fire on Ukrainian border positions from Russia..


http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/27/satellite-images-us-show-russian-rocket-fire-into-ukraine

Sand

TBH, if the actual murder of EU citizens cant spark some solidarity or a response at EU level, I think it is very unlikely that some blurry images that can be dismissed as forgeries will spark an EU response. Especially as we draw closer to winter.

comongethappy

Sand wrote: »

TBH, if the actual murder of EU citizens cant spark some solidarity or a response at EU level, I think it is very unlikely that some blurry images that can be dismissed as forgeries will spark an EU response. Especially as we draw closer to winter.

True.... A response is unlikely. So this story, despite being pretty big news in its own right will pass rather anonymously.

gandalf

Looks like the Germans are coming around to actually putting sanctions in place that will actually bite and according to The Independent (the UK one not the Irish rag!) Putins Oligarch supporters are starting to get nervous.

These are interesting comments.

"..Eckhard Cordes, the head of German industry’s key Eastern committee, which oversees trade and business interests in Russia, also dropped his opposition to the idea. “For German industry politics must take first place. If economic sanctions are decided upon, then we will support them,” he said..."

".....His remarks were echoed by the veteran Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble. In an interview with the Bild am Sonntag newspaper he said German business interests were “second” in importance when it came to foreign policy and Russia.

“Safeguarding stability and peace have top priority,” he told the newspaper. “Any threat to peace and stability would moreover be the biggest danger for economic development.”

Mr Schäuble said the existing sanctions were already beginning to take effect. “The rouble is losing value, Russia’s budget deficit is growing and its economic development is bad. Even the Russian president sees this,” he said....."

Full article is here http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/a-new-russian-revolution-the-cracks-are-starting-to-appear-in-putins-kremlin-power-bloc-9631894.html

aloyisious

Sound's like Germany is putting the "oomph" into the EU to act as one unit. I can hear the "Euro-sceptic" cries of "Germany is getting another crack at controlling the direction Europe is going, alongside it's Euro-currency plot", without them acknowledging that their protests are accidentally aiding and abetting Russia and other large Nation-states in their efforts to weaken the buying-power and influence of Europe as a corporate entity.

comongethappy

So with Germany feeling more 'sanctioney'.

Its only 2 helicopter carriers & house sales in Kensington/Belgravia & Tory party donations thats stopping Europe acting as one.

Sectional interests look all the more trivial compared to the big picture.

Darkrepeater

It was reported the other day that Germany may be considering turning it's back on Europe and maybe joining this BRICS nation thing..

comongethappy

Darkrepeater wrote: »

It was reported the other day that Germany may be considering turning it's back on Europe and maybe joining this BRICS nation thing..

Anyone can join that.... Such that 'Joining' actualy means anything

Its not a formal trading bloc or free trade area.
They are an offshoot of G20, there is nothing to formerly join...... Also, Im willing to wager, Germany won't be leaving the EU any time soon.

Darkrepeater

comongethappy wrote: »

Anyone can join that.... Such that 'Joining' actualy means anything

Its not a formal trading bloc or free trade area.
They are an offshoot of G20, there is nothing to formerly join...... Also, Im willing to wager, Germany won't be leaving the EU any time soon.

Oh right.. So it wouldn't change much..? Complete novice here...
Thanks

gandalf

Darkrepeater wrote: »

It was reported the other day that Germany may be considering turning it's back on Europe and maybe joining this BRICS nation thing..

I doubt that very much. In 2013 seven of Germany's top 10 export markets were in the EU.

I doubt very much they will going anywhere.

Also worth noting that Russia is not in the top ten.

Darkrepeater

Hi again.. Found an article there on what I'd posted but can't post links..
Like I say total novice, interested to have it explained.. Duh..! Lol
Thanks

examiner.com/article/jim-willie-source-confirms-that-germany-is-ready-to-leave-eu-euro-and-nato

You'll have to add the "www" yourself before examiner.com..

gandalf

Looks like complete and utter CT fantasy fare to be honest. Once it said a high ranking source in London it smelt a bit rank.

Darkrepeater

gandalf wrote: »

Looks like complete and utter CT fantasy fare to be honest. Once it said a high ranking source in London it smelt a bit rank.

Lol.. Right so..
Whys that anyway? Why would someone in London know anyways..?

comongethappy

Darkrepeater wrote: »

Hi again.. Found an article there on what I'd posted but can't post links..
Like I say total novice, interested to have it explained.. Duh..! Lol
Thanks

examiner.com/article/jim-willie-source-confirms-that-germany-is-ready-to-leave-eu-euro-and-nato

You'll have to add the "www" yourself before examiner.com..

Welcome & obviously you are free to read whatever you want.
However when the author bases his article on this quote:

"I got word from a client... I call him London Paul. He's a former banker in London

He just came back from a client trip where some Russians told him....that they have heard Germany made a decision already to leave the EU, leave the Euro, and leave NATO, "

This is the equivalent of the 8year old who is always out on his BMX on my estate telling me about Taiwan deciding to secretly rejoin China.

Then I pretend I'm a journalist & write an article using the kids quote as evidence

gandalf

Darkrepeater wrote: »

Lol.. Right so..
Whys that anyway? Why would someone in London know anyways..?

Look at Germany's man export markets. The majority are their neighbours. Staying in the EU is logical, leaving it and creating a barrier to significant trade with your significant markets isn't logical or practical.

The story is pure and utter balderdash!